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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 6

Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week?

Justin Jefferson, De’Von Achane, James Conner, and Anthony Richardson are all out for at least four weeks.

Some fantasy teams got decimated this weekend. Absolutely brutal. 

It was a particularly rough week for injuries, and now some managers might need to make some moves. 

That means it's time to t-t-t-trade.  

Check out all our trade chart options:

• PPR fantasy trade value chart
• Superflex fantasy trade value chart
• Tight End Premium fantasy trade value chart
• Dynasty trade value chart
• Dynasty superflex trade value chart

Process

To make the market version of the fantasy football trade value chart, I aggregate expert consensus rankings and use them to feed my model.

The goal is to align players within their positional groups and then look for crossover points across positions. Expert rankings (ECR) feed the market model since most users follow experts (duh).

I then run the Draft Sharks rankings through the same model and normalize the scale to 100. 

Comparing ECR and Draft Sharks values generates the VS Market field on the chart. The Trend is the DS values vs. the previous week.

How to Use a Trade Value Chart

Add player values (left column) on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. Add up the values of multiple players on each side, and you can look at larger trades.

That's a basic answer, but it doesn't do the question justice.

Trade value charts are designed for one-for-one trades and don’t do a great job when looking at larger or lopsided trades.

Two-for-one and three-for-one trades need to account for the benefits a top-tier player adds to a team and for freeing up roster spots. In two-for-one, three-for-one, or three-for-two type trades, the side sending more players needs to overpay for the smaller side.

For example, if you are trading for a player with a value of 75 and want to send two players, they likely need a combined value of 30-50% more than 75 (98-113).

Use Trade Value Charts to Look for Positional Swaps

Let’s say I have a ton of RB depth, and I want to trade an RB of 35 value for a WR. I'll look for WRs around 35 in value and check the rosters to see if they are weak at RB.

I'm looking for “win-win” trades that are likely to get done.

I find sending lopsided and/or nonsense trades that aren’t helping both sides waste time.

Fantasy Trade Value Chart Vs. Market - Week 6

Fantasy Trade Targets

Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Draft Sharks Value: 84.5
Market: 80.5
Profit: +4

Buying an RB coming off a high-ankle sprain can be risky, and I am usually a risk-averse fantasy player. 

Ekeler is the exception. 

The Chargers' offense needs Ekeler back to take over for Josh Kelley and Isaiah Spiller. Without Ekeler, the Chargers have ranked 28th in rushing yards per game, 29th in yards per attempt, and bottom 5 in rushing success rate. 

They sucked. They need Ekeler back. And so do you.

He is our RB3 ROS, just a few spots ahead of the market.

I would package an RB + WR to upgrade into Ekeler. 

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams 

DS Value: 10.5
Market: 2
Profit: 8.5

Depending on the platform, Stafford might be rostered in 50-60% of leagues. There is a chance you can just pick him up. Even if he is rostered in your league, he is likely a bench QB. 

That means he is cheap. He is the QB18 in market rest-of-season rankings, but number 12 in ours. 

Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell combine to make an explosive offense, and Stafford will benefit the rest of the season. 

Depending on the other manager's roster, you could send a bench WR or RB for Stafford. 

Honorable mentions:

Running Back

David Montgomery +21
Breece Hall +12
Dameon Pierce +7
Zach Moss +12 

Wide Receiver 

Deebo Samuel +4
Tyler Lockett +3

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta +19

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy +3

Fantasy Sells 

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

DS Value: 73.5
Market: 90
Disparity: -16.5

Pollard has had great usage through the first five weeks, parlaying that into a top-12 overall score at the position. 

But.

His efficiency has gone way down, and there are multiple reasons to worry.

Yellow Flags

First, the offense hasn't been very good. The Cowboys sit 19th in total offensive DVOA; 22nd rushing. And that's despite the O-line playing decently (12th in adjusted line yards).

We also have no idea if Pollard can hold up to the increased workload. He's on pace for 275 carries and 64.6 receptions. He's averaging 4.1 more carries and 1.4 more receptions per game than last year.

Pollard's yards per carry is down from 5.2 to a career-low 4.2. His yards per catch (5.1) looks even worse, sitting 2.8 short of his career average and 1.8 below his previous low.

Could these numbers rebound? Sure. But Pollard could also wear down further under a workload he has never handled.

Remember, he totaled 139 carries across three college seasons that found him working more like a slot WR.

Sell Window

Pollard has a positive matchup this week. The Chargers sit just 22nd in defensive DVOA and 28th in run defense. The game carries the week's highest over/under, and the Cowboys currently sport the fifth-highest Vegas implied total.

That's a nice setting for the lead RB.

You can use that to either make Pollard more attractive in trade this week, if you need help now. Or you could play him in that matchup and sell afterward, when he -- we hope -- looks even more attractive.

If you can sell Pollard straight up for Ekeler this week, however, go for it.

Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

DS Value:  12.5
Market: 14
Disparity: -1.5

The ultimate post-hype sleeper. Davis is a nice flex WR ... valued as a top WR asset by some managers.

He has:

• a sub-15% target share
• a 69.2% catch rate
• one TD catch fewer than the trio tied for the league lead

According to PFF, Davis is scoring above expected at the seventh highest rate among WRs.

His profile is screaming “REGRESSION.”

If you can trade him high, go for it. I would do a 2-for-1 to acquire an elite asset. 

Or keep popping him into your flex spot if you can't get a good enough return.

Honorable mentions

Running Back

Jaylen Warren -9

Wide Receiver

Romeo Doubs -5

Tight End

George Kittle -5

Fantasy Holds

Hold Rhamondre Stevenson

Through five weeks, Stevenson has faced the following:

• Philadelphia: No. 13 defense by DVOA, No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs
• Miami: No. 25 in DVOA, No. 22 in RB points allowed
• N.Y. Jets: No. 15 in DVOA, No. 15 in points allowed
• Dallas: No. 8 in DVOA, No. 17 in points allowed
• New Orleans: No. 5 in DVOA, No. 5 in points allowed

He has been getting crushed behind the No. 28 offensive line, by PFF run-blocking grades. He has been bad, and his situation has been brutal.

Even the usage hasn't been great. PFF has Stevenson just 25th among RBs in expected half-PPR points per game. He's tied for just 35th in actual points per game.

Only seven RBs are scoring below expected at a worse rate.

Stevenson is so low right now he is almost a buy. But if you have him, hold him. 

His schedule gets better, and RBs are hard to find.

See Who's Available on the Waiver Wire

Trades are great, but you also might be able to find some help on waivers this week. Check out our in-depth Week 6 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups. And check out the video below to hear about some key situations.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.