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Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 7

Who Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold This Week?

Another brutal week for injuries.

I thought my fantasy season was over for those 5 minutes that Tyreek Hill was out.

Thank God for cramps.

Worse news: Fields, T-Law, Monty, Kyren Williams, Deebo, and maybe CMC all got banged up last week — another brutal week for our fantasy teams.

Now sprinkle in six NFL teams on a bye.

Good luck setting a lineup that doesn’t make you gag.

Come on down Justice Hill, my new RB1 on a team.

This is fine. Everything is fine.

Let’s trade. 

Check out all our chart options:

• PPR fantasy trade value chart
• Superflex fantasy trade value chart
• Tight End Premium fantasy trade value chart
• Dynasty trade value chart
• Dynasty superflex trade value chart

Process

To make the market version of the fantasy football trade value chart, I aggregate expert consensus rankings and use them to feed my model.

The goal is to align players within their positional groups and then look for crossover points across positions. Expert rankings (ECR) feed the market model since most users follow experts (duh). 

I then run the Draft Sharks rankings through the same model and normalize the scale to 100. 

Comparing ECR and Draft Sharks values generates the VS Market field on the chart. The Trend is the DS values vs. the previous week. 

How to Use a Trade Value Chart

Add player values (left column) on each side of the trade and compare for fairness. Add up the values of multiple players on each side, and you can look at larger trades.

That's a basic answer, but it doesn't do the question justice.

Trade value charts are designed for one-for-one trades and don’t do a great job when looking at larger or lopsided trades.

Two-for-one and three-for-one trades need to account for the benefits a top-tier player adds to a team and for freeing up roster spots. In two-for-one, three-for-one, or three-for-two type trades, the side sending more players needs to overpay for the smaller side.

For example, if you are trading for a player with a value of 75 and want to send two players, they likely need a combined value of 30-50% more than 75 (98-113).

Use Trade Value Charts to Look for Positional Swaps

Let’s say I have a ton of RB depth, and I want to trade an RB of 35 value for a WR. I'll look for WRs around 35 in value and check the rosters to see if they are weak at RB.

I'm looking for “win-win” trades that are likely to get done.

I find sending lopsided and/or nonsense trades that aren’t helping both sides waste time.

Fantasy Trade Value Chart Vs. Market - Week 7

Fantasy Trade Targets

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions 

Draft Sharks Value: 66.5
Market: 43
Profit: 23.5

Before his second injury of the season, Montgomery was in the running for fantasy MVP. He was drafted with a fifth-seventh round ADP and has aggressively returned value.

Monty is dealing with a “multi-week” rib cartilage injury, and Detroit has a bye in Week 9. 

But here is Detroit’s schedule beyond that:

• Week 10: Chargers
• Week 11: Bears
• Week 12: Packers
• Week 13: Saints (not great)
• Week 14: Bears
• Week 15: Broncos
• Week 16: Vikings
• Week 17: Cowboys (not great)

According to our Strength of Schedule tool, Detroit has the 2nd best remaining schedule for RBs. Monty is set up to win people fantasy championships just like in 2020 and 2021. 

It’s happening again.

Monty’s injury might have been a blessing in disguise. His buy window might have opened up. 

If you have a solid record and depth, make a play.

Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals 

Draft Sharks Value: 20
Market: 16.5
Profit: 3.5

Death, taxes, and Hollywood Brown being undervalued in fantasy. 

Even with a backup QB,  Brown is the points per game (PPG) WR22 in 0.5 PPR scoring. 

PFF’s expected points model has Brown as the WR12 based on his opportunity and market share. He is getting the work. 

Last week, he should have had a monster game, but Dobbs and Brown didn’t connect on some deep throws and a TD pass. 

There is more “meat on the bone” for Brown to be a top 24 WR rest-of-season. And the market is being slow to get on board. 

On top of that, Kyler returned to practice this week. Dobbs has played surprisingly well for a backup, but we are all ready and excited for Murray to take over. 

Honorable mentions:

Running Back

Devin Singletary +5
Jeff Wilson Jr. +9
Kareem Hunt +9

Wide Receiver 

Tyler Lockett +4
Drake London +5

Tight Ends

Any guy with a pulse

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud +2

Fantasy Sells 

D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

Draft Sharks Value:  21.5
Market: 42
Disparity: -20.5

He’s back! Moore earns the hat trick with a third fantasy sell highlight.

We don't doubt that he's good at football. But Justin Fields dislocated his right thumb and is already doubtful for Week 7. Edwin Porras of Fantasy Points is anticipating a Week 9-10 return with a lot of uncertainty.

The injury is likely impacting his thumb “stability” and could require surgery, depending on ligament damage. 

A sprain would likely mean 1-2 weeks for Fields. A tear would require surgery that would be 6+ weeks.

Tyson Bagent is technically a QB in the NFL. I am not excited to have him throwing to my WRs. 

The Fields situation likely hurts Moore's sale price and might mean you need to hold him. But check to see if you can still get a near-WR1 price on the strength of Moore's pre-Week 6 booms.

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Draft Sharks Value:  32
Market: 54
Disparity: -22

Per PFF, Metcalf is the WR40 in expected PPR points per game and tied for 23rd in actual points per game.

Yet he is between WR10-14 on FantasyPros' rest-of-season consensus rankings.

Metcalf also ranks:

• 43rd in target share among WRs; 50th among all pass catchers
• 44th in route participation
• 46th in aDOT
• 33rd in air yards
• 44th in targets
• 67th in targets per route run

The math doesn’t add up. Metcalf is being ranked like a low-end WR1 when he is more like a WR2/3.

And sure, there's room for him to rebound. But we also saw rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba get more playing time out of the Week 5 bye. And RB Kenneth Walker III has played well. So Seattle doesn't need Metcalf to draw big target shares.

He is a sell at his market evaluation. (Though not a must-sell.)

Honorable mentions:

Jaylen Warren -10.5

Fantasy Holds

Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers

This morning, I woke up with severe neck pain. My wife and I accidentally swapped pillows, and that tiny change caused my neck to seize up.

I hope no one is in my blind spot. 

It sucks getting old. 

Adam Thielen is 150 days older than I am. Yet somehow, he’s the WR7 in half-PPR points per game.

If you throw out Week 1, he is the WR5.

According to PFF, Thielen is a top 10 WR based on usage. He is the focal point of the Panthers offense and is on pace for 140 targets this year.

And no one wants to trade for him. Theilen is not a sell-high because no one will buy-high. 

He is found money. Hold on tight. 

(But not too tight. He’s old.)

See Who's Available on the Waiver Wire

Trades are great, but you also might be able to find some help on waivers this week. Check out our in-depth Week 7 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups. And check out the video below to hear about some key situations.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.