Shedeur Sanders Dynasty Value: Film Doesn't Lie

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No player in this draft class has received more attention and hype than Shedeur Sanders.

Having your outspoken Hall of Fame father as your head coach for four years brings the media attention.

But, we will look beyond the presumption of Sanders as a top QB prospect. Instead, let’s focus on the stats and film to determine if Sanders will be a future fantasy QB1.

Three-Time State Champion

Sanders attended Trinity Christian School in Texas where Deion Sanders had been hired as the team’s OC.

Naturally, Sanders started for the team as a freshman. He immediately led the team to a state championship, throwing for 2,360 yards and 34 TDs.

Sanders led Trinity to three more state titles, amassing 12,498 passing yards, 166 TDs, and 47 total wins.

Sanders’ success led to numerous scholarship offers from Alabama to Deion’s alma mater, Florida State.

As a four-star recruit, Sanders appeared poised to attend a big-name college program. 

Follows Dad to Jackson State

Before Sanders could commit, however, Deion would become the HC of Jackson State, ahead of the 2021 season.

Naturally, his son followed.

Not only that, but the younger Sanders helped convince five-star WR Travis Hunter to join him.

Sanders started at QB as a true freshman, throwing for 3,231 yards with 30 TDs and 8 INTs. He won Freshman of the Year in the Southwestern Athletic Conference.

He continued his domination as a sophomore, throwing for 3,732 yards with 40 TDs and 6 INTs, and winning the Deacon Jones Trophy as the top HBCU player in the country.

Sanders dominated the FCS level, but questions loomed about whether he could compete in the FBS.

Follows Dad Again to the Big Leagues

Colorado named Deion HC ahead of the 2023 season. Sanders and Hunter transferred to join him and immediately became starters for the Buffaloes.

Despite the team going 4-8, Sanders the QB impressed with his poise and accuracy. He tallied 3,230 passing yards with 27 TDs and 3 INTs. He was also sacked 52 times, most in the nation.

NCAA stats subtract sack yards from a player's rushing total, so Sanders ended up with -77 for the year -- though he did run for 4 TDs.

Sanders returned for his senior season in 2024 with potential to solidify his status as a top QB in the 2025 NFL Draft.

He tallied 4,134 passing yards, 37 TDs and 10 INTs. Colorado contended in the Big 12 for most of the season but ended up 9-4.

Once again, though, Sanders led the nation in sacks taken, with 42.

He would also end the season with -50 rushing yards (but another 4 rushing TDs).

Controversial Hype

Sanders and Heisman-winning teammate Hunter each declared for the draft and have been commonly expected to go early in Round 1.

If Sanders is drafted high and starts, he'll be one of just two starting QBs who totaled negative rushing yardage in college. (Jared Goff's the other.)

Let's check the film to see what we should actually expect here ...

Shedeur Sanders Highlights

Games watched: Oregon (2023), Nebraska (2024), UCF (2024), Kansas State 92024), Arizona (2024), Texas Tech (2024), Utah (2024), Kansas (2024), BYU (2024)

Sanders is certainly smart enough to play QB in the pros. There are positives in how he approaches defenses and throws the football.

But I see a few glaring holes as well ...

Pinpoint Accuracy

Sanders’ accuracy is immediately apparent. He places the ball impeccably when he targets the middle of the field. 

Not only does Sanders throw the ball to complete the catch, but he knows how to lead his receivers to help them pick up yards after the catch.

Sanders reads the Cover-2 defense and anticipates that the slot WR will run himself open. Instead of waiting for him to clear the coverage, Sanders begins his throw while the WR is still covered. 

It allows for a catch and potential run if he can avoid the safety.

Here is another example against man coverage:

Sanders sees his first read getting inside on the opposing CB. The throw can be tricky, with a fairly tight window to hit as the safety rushes upfield anticipating the pass. 

It becomes a potential INT if the pass were behind or too far in front of the receiver.

Sanders doesn’t make that mistake.

He routinely reads the defense correctly and hits the right spot to complete the pass.

Advanced at Processing Defenses

Sanders' patience lets plays develop so he can find the best target. He goes through his progressions based on the defensive look pre-snap and usually finds the best target.

When all other options were covered though, a one-on-one with Travis Hunter was the fallback.

On this play, Sanders' first read is the slot WR running into the safety’s zone. He then looks back to Hunter on the crosser, but the OLB is in position in front of Hunter while covering the checkdown in the flat.

After seeing the outside WR taking the safety back further, Sanders gears up and throws it to Hunter across the field.

Utah’s defense plays the pass well with the CB and safety closing, but Sanders' ball placement and Hunter’s leaping ability turn it into a long gain. 

Manipulates Safeties with Ease

Along with his progression skills, Sanders uses his eyes to move the safety away from his intended target.

Using his first read to bait a safety and open up the slot is common practice for Sanders. 

On this play, he immediately looks left to the streak route. The safety books it backward to give help over the top.

This opens up the slot WR with a one-on-one down the field. Sanders makes the throw without the safety even realizing there is another WR in the vicinity.

But not all of Sanders’ traits are positive. There are a few major red flags that should make NFL teams (and fantasy managers) hesitate. 

Definition of Noodle Arm

The biggest issue with Sanders is his lack of zip on the football. He prefers to arc the ball on throws rather than rip it into a tight spot. That’s the definition of a “noodle arm.” 

This problem will be amplified in the NFL, with faster defenders that can close quicker.

He also shies away from throwing Cover-2 beating sideline passes between the CB and safety that could provide a blueprint to beat him at the next level.

Sanders has a wide open WR for a TD, but his lack of zip causes the ball to float too long. The deep corner has time to break up a pass that should have been an easy score.

With a faster corner who is a step closer, this may even be an INT.

This simply won't work at the next level.

Keeps Getting Sacked But Won’t Run

Even worse for fantasy managers may be Sanders' lack of rushing upside.

He has more athleticism than his negative college rushing yardage would suggest. But Sanders rarely looks for a running lane. Instead, he'll try to sit and wait for the perfect passing opportunity to present itself.

Though his O-line at Colorado was never good, Sanders contributed to his high sack rate by holding the ball too long.  

The pressure comes quickly on this play, but Sanders has a wide open screen in the flat once his drop is done.

Instead, he looks to the middle of the field for a bigger play and gets sacked.

If Sanders goes to a team with a mediocre-to-poor O-line, his lack of rushing and reluctance to check down could prove disastrous.

Best Team Fit: Cleveland Browns

An ideal NFL offense would allow Sanders to use his strong mental game to read defenses and make easy completions to move the chains.

Browns HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense focuses on running from basic formations with play action that mirrors the pass and the run.

When Stefanski adapted the offense for Joe Flacco, the Browns successfully utilized TEs and quick progressions to identify lay-up mismatches.

Sanders could flourish in the same basic system.

His arm-strength issue would be less of a problem, and he could show off his defense-reading skills.

Going second overall would put a lot of pressure on Sanders. But in terms of offensive fit, this would be the best in the NFL for him.

Dynasty Value Conclusion

Sanders has plenty of red flags, from his arm strength to his lack of rushing. 

The film doesn't get me excited about his transition to the next level.

Also, his eighth grade season was the last time he played football without his father on the coaching staff. How will that transition go?

It's a perplexing evaluation for dynasty managers.

A QB who is unlikely to run the ball but also doesn’t have elite arm talent would seem to lack fantasy upside.

Sanders would need to become a Tom Brady-like QB to overcome his issues and delivery QB1 production.

Even in superflex, taking chances on rushing upside options such as Jaxson Dart or Jalen Milroe at lower cost will likely be the better play.

In 1-QB formats, Sanders holds minimal upside.

But if he does go in the top 10 of the NFL Draft, his opportunity should make him at least worth rostering in most deeper dynasty leagues.

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