Alvin Kamara Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Kamara ran for 950 yards and six scores on 228 carries across 14 games last year. He added another 543 yards and two TDs on 68 catches.

Kamara was knocked out of Week 15 with a groin injury and missed the final three games of the season. He finished ninth among RBs in total PPR points and fifth in points per game. If we omit Week 15, Kamara climbs to fourth in points per game.

He was a steady weekly producer, with no finish worse than RB33 in PPR points. Kamara scored as a top-24 RB in 13 of 14 games and as a top-12 RB six times.

Usage & Role

Kamara had the most valuable role among RBs in fantasy football last year. He led the position with 19.6 expected PPR points per game — 1.6 points clear of Bijan Robinson at No. 2. That jumps to 20.3 expected points per game if we remove Week 15.

Kamara averaged 16.3 carries per game, which ranked ninth among RBs and were the second-most of his career. He tied for just 23rd with 11 carries inside the five-yard line — in part because New Orleans’ offense wasn’t very good, and in part because he lost some work to Taysom Hill. Kamara ranked 22nd among RBs with 6.9 expected rushing TDs.

His role in the passing game really boosted his fantasy value. Kamara led all RBs with 89 targets (despite missing three games). His 20.4% target share through Week 14 also led the position.

Efficiency Metrics

Kamara averaged 4.2 yards per carry last year. It was his best mark since 2020 but ranked just 26th among 49 RBs with 90+ attempts.

He was worse in blocking-independent metrics, ranking:

• 36th in rush yards over expected
• 37th in yards after contact per attempt
• 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt

Kamara at least finished 19th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

He was more efficient as a receiver. Among 37 RBs with 30+ targets last year, Kamara ranked:

• 2nd in yards per route
• 22nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 20th in ESPN receiver score

Offensive Context

The Saints offense was not very good last year, finishing 24th in points, 21st in yards, and 17th in yards per play.

They were better in QB Derek Carr’s 10 games, averaging 350 total yards and 24.5 points per game. That sank to 277 yards and 13.3 points in seven games without Carr.

Kamara averaged 20.4 PPR points per game with Carr vs. 18.2 in three full games without him.

Historical Production & Trends

Kamara’s 19.0 PPR points per game last year were his most since 2020. He remained very relevant in the three years in between, though, finishing:

• RB7 in PPR points per game in 2021
• RB13 in 2022
• RB5 in 2023

Kamara has actually posted his four highest carries per game in the last four seasons. His efficiency has waned from where it was early in his career. But his 2.76 yards after contact per attempt this past season was his best since 2021.

Kamara has always been a huge part of New Orleans’ passing attack. He’s tallied 3.6+ catches per game in all eight seasons, with 4.9+ in six of them, including each of the last two. While his receiving efficiency has generally trended downward, his 1.75 yards per route last year was his best mark since 2020.

Injury History

Kamara has missed time with injury in five of his eight NFL seasons. His injury history includes:

• A concussion in 2017 (did not miss any games)
• A sprained ankle and knee in 2019
• A sprained MCL in 2021
• Fractured rib cartilage in 2022
• A sprained ankle in 2023
• A groin injury in 2024

Kamara also needed knee surgery in 2012, forcing him to take a redshirt season at Alabama. And he suffered a Grade 2 LCL sprain while at Tennessee.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Saints made only minor moves in the backfield this offseason, re-signing Clyde Edwards-Helaire to a one-year, $1.17 million deal and adding Devin Neal in the sixth round of the draft. They join 2023 third-rounder Kendre Miller, who’s coming off a second straight injury-riddled.

Kamara’s standing as clear lead back does not seem threatened — especially after he signed a two-year, $24.5 million extension last October. He’s the league’s fifth-highest-paid RB in terms of average annual salary.

Supporting Cast

QB Derek Carr’s surprising retirement in May leaves second-round rookie Tyler Shough as New Orleans’ most likely starter. The other options are Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, who both struggled in spot duty last year. QB is a big question for the Saints — and a potential drain on Kamara’s fantasy value.

He’ll at least be running behind a promising offensive line. Last year’s Saints ranked:

• 11th in Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grades
• 19th in ESPN’s run block win rate
• 22nd in adjusted line yards

New Orleans used the ninth overall pick of this spring’s draft on Texas’ Kelvin Banks, who’s penciled in as the starting LT. And 2024 first-round OT Taliese Fuaga is a candidate for a second-year leap.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Saints hired Kellen Moore as their new HC in February. He replaces Dennis Allen, who was fired in the middle of last season.

This is Moore’s first HC gig after a successful six-year run as an OC.

He ran Dallas’ offense from 2019 to 2022, leading the Cowboys to top-six finishes in points in three of four seasons. Two of those teams led the league in total yards.

Moore headed west to Los Angeles in 2023, taking over as Chargers OC. That team finished 21st in points and 18th in total yards, but QB Justin Herbert dealt with multiple injuries and missed the final four games of the season.

This past year, Moore helped the Eagles to a Super Bowl. The offense ranked seventh in points and eighth in total yards.

Moore has shown an ability to adapt his scheme and play calling to his personnel. His pass rates have ranged from 61.4% (2020 Cowboys) to 44.3% (2024 Eagles). Considering the Saints’ uncertainty at QB, expect Moore to lean toward the run this year.

Moore’s offenses have consistently been fast paced with high play volume. His first five teams ranked top four in seconds per play (last year’s Eagles ranked 24th). And all six have averaged at least 65 plays per game. For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.

It’s good news for Kamara’s 2025 fantasy outlook. More plays mean more chances for fantasy points.

Moore has also helped produce some strong RB fantasy seasons.

• 2019: Ezekiel Elliott RB5 in PPR points per game
• 2020: Elliott RB16 in PPR points per game
• 2021: Elliott RB19 in PPR points per game
• 2022: Tony Pollard RB10, Elliott RB23 in PPR points per game
• 2023: Austin Ekeler RB20 in PPR points per game
• 2024: Saquon Barkley RB1 in PPR points per game

Production & Efficiency Trends

Kamara turns 30 in July — well past prime for RBs. Our aging-curve research says that RBs of Kamara’s caliber, on average, produce at 70-75% of their peak at age-30.

Kamara has been living off volume more than efficiency for the past few years now, though. If he maintains similar volume in 2025, he can continue scoring plenty of fantasy points, even if he’s inefficient.