Bo Nix Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Fantasy Finishes

Nix went from sixth QB picked in the 2024 draft to second in the class in rookie-year fantasy points, trailing only Jayden Daniels.

Nix ranked eighth overall in leagues with 4-point passing TDs; 10th in points per game.

A slow start – QB17, QB27, QB14, QB30 the first four weeks – gave way to a much stronger final three quarters of the season. Nix finished seven of the remaining 13 games among the top 12 fantasy QBs. That included five top-8 finishes, three of those among the top 4.

From Week 5 on, he ranked sixth among QBs in fantasy points per game and ninth in fantasy points per dropback.

Production & Efficiency

For the season, here’s how Nix ranked among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks:

• 15th in completion rate
• 21st in adjusted completion rate
• 18th in passing yards per game
• 32nd in yards per pass attempt
• 22nd in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE)
• 28th in average depth of target (aDOT)
• Fifth in percentage of passing yardage coming after the catch
• Sixth in TD passes
• 10th in TD rate
• 19th in INT rate
• 27th in Pro Football Reference’s passing success rate
• 19th in ESPN’s QBR

Nix threw short. He completed passes at a just-OK rate. He relied heavily on yards after catch and TDs. And he added value as a runner.

Nix ranked eighth among QBs in rushing yards, tied for ninth in rushing TDs and logged the fifth-most rushing attempts. Nix tallied the league’s second-most scrambles – according to Pro Football Focus – trailing only Daniels.

Nix didn’t rely too heavily on that rushing production, though. Rushing accounted for 18.6% of his total fantasy points. That ranked just 18th among the top 50 QB scorers overall.

Offensive Context

Courtland Sutton served not only as Nix’s clear No. 1 receiver. The 29-year-old nearly doubled his nearest teammate in targets.

Sutton’s 135 was followed by …

• RB Javonte Williams at 70
• WR Devaughn Vele at 55
• WR Troy Franklin at 53
• WR Marvin Mims at 52

Sutton was also the only Bronco to catch more than 52 passes. Only Williams (52) and Vele (41) cracked 40 receptions.

No TE drew more than 23 targets for the season.

The offense ranked:

• 19th in yards
• 16th in total DVOA
• 15th in pass DVOA
• 24th in rush DVOA
• and 10th in scoring

Historical Production & Trends

Nix also finished college as a short-aDOT player. His 6.8-yard aDOT in 2023 ranked 174th among 180 QBs with 100+ dropbacks.

His 7.4 mark in 2022 – Nix’s first season at Oregon – tied for 157th among 172 qualifiers.

That’s not necessarily a good or bad stat, but it points to what kind of passer Nix is likely to remain going forward. He improved his efficiency – including yards per pass attempt – on the shortened aDOTs at Oregon vs. his three years at Auburn. And Denver appeared to follow the same plan after drafting him in Round 1.

That said, we could see the aDOT extend as (if?) the WR corps improves.

Sutton’s aDOT (13.2) actually got deeper last year vs. his previous two seasons and edged his career rate (13.0).

2025 Expectations

Supporting Cast

The Broncos showed little urgency in working on their WR corps this offseason. The most prominent addition was third-round pick Pat Bryant, who reached 50 receptions just once across four seasons at Illinois.

Bigger is the addition of TE Evan Engram, who got $23 million on a two-year deal – with $16.5 million of that guaranteed. HC Sean Payton has talked about Engram fitting the “joker” role in his offense, which he views as helpful for the QB.

“It just opens up the middle of the field a little more,” Payton said in April. “That's something that we lacked -- the explosive element that we've lacked in the middle of the field. As we've talked about, he's a mismatch-type player, so that only helps the quarterback."

Payton says he specifically likes Engram’s “body control” and run-after-catch ability and views the new Bronco as a strong option on third downs and in the red zone.

Engram seems an especially good fit for the type of QB that Nix has been over at least the past three years.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

It’s tough to fully analyze Payton’s impact on QB scoring, because Drew Brees was his QB for 14 of 17 seasons as HC so far. And Nix already looks like the best QB among the other three seasons.

The scheme certainly seems like a positive for offensive output overall, though. That includes last year’s Broncos improving in basically all offensive categories (outside of rushing).

There’s still room for growth beyond last year’s …

• No. 16 finish in offensive DVOA
• No. 19 ranking in total yards
• No. 19 ranking in yards per play

Don’t be surprised, however, if Denver regresses from its No. 10 finish in scoring, given that the rest of the stat profile didn’t really align with that.

Will Team Lean More Toward Pass?

We’ll also have to see about the Broncos’ run/pass split. The team ranked just 19th in pass rate last year, which was understandable with a rookie QB and limited pass-catching group.

But those Broncos also sported a weak backfield. Payton addressed that by letting Javonte Williams walk and then drafting RB R.J. Harvey in Round 2.

Payton’s Brees teams leaned toward pass-heaviness, but he has leaned the other way over his past seven head-coaching seasons – going from the final years of Brees on to lesser QBs.

At the least, you shouldn’t count expected passing volume as a plus for Nix.