Courtland Sutton Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Sutton delivered career highs in total fantasy points and points per game across formats. He ranked:

• 22nd among WRs in PPR points per game
• 19th in half-PPR
• Tied for 20th in non-PPR

Sutton set career marks in targets and receptions while tallying his second-most receiving yards and receiving TDs.

The production picked up around midseason. Sutton cracked the top 30 WRs just twice among the first seven games, with no weekly finish higher than 23rd.

From Week 8 on, though, he finished just one week lower than WR32 and just two of those 10 weeks outside the top 30.

Sutton landed among the top 15 five times, including three top-9 finishes.

Usage & Role

Sutton drew 9+ targets in 10 of his 17 outings. He finished 13th among all wideouts in total targets and 25th across positions in target share. His 135 targets nearly doubled his nearest teammate (Javonte Williams, 70).

Sutton served as the clear downfield leader in a Broncos offense that favored short work. His 14.0-yard aDOT – according to Pro Football Focus – trailed only rookie Troy Franklin, who trailed Sutton by 89 total targets across the regular-season and playoff loss.

WR Josh Reynolds – 11.1-yard aDOT on 19 total targets across five games – was the only other Bronco in double digits.

Efficiency Metrics

Sutton’s yards per catch actually finished shorter than his aDOT. That would seem to indicate struggles on deep balls … but that wasn’t really the case.

Sutton did see a slight dip in the percentage of his targets that traveled 20+ yards downfield (20.6% vs. 23% in 2023). But that beat his 2022 share and fell just short of his career median for that category (21.8). Sutton also posted the second-best catch rate of his career for that range: 48.3%, trailing only his 2023.

Falling a bit vs. his 2023 efficiency in that category makes sense. Russell Wilson served as primary QB that season and has always been a strong deep passer.

Sutton also drew a career-high share of medium-range passes in 2024, according to PFF. That covers throws 10-19 yards downfield and accounted for 41.8% of Sutton’s targets. The wideout interestingly saw his second-smallest share of short-range targets (0-9 yards) despite a low-aDOT QB.

Offensive Context

Sutton’s target share undoubtedly benefited from a weak WR group around him. Rookies Devaughn Vele (55) and Franklin (53) ranked second and third among Denver WRs in targets. Marvin Mims checked in just behind (52), with Lil’Jordan Humphrey following (45).

Reynolds opened the year in Denver but got waived in early December.

The TEs proved even worse, with Lucas Krull (23) and Adam Trautman (22) the target leaders.

Historical Production & Trends

Here’s how Sutton ranked in PPR points per game before 2024:

• 38th in 2023
• 44th in 2022
• 69th in 2021
• 28th in 2019
• 73rd in 2018

Injury History

You might have noticed that 2020’s missing from that list above. Sutton tore the ACL and MCL in his left knee in Week 2 of that season, after missing the opener with a minor shoulder injury.

Injuries haven’t hit him too hard otherwise. Sutton lost one game to a concussion late in 2023 and two in December 2022 to a hamstring injury.

Otherwise, he has proved durable.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Sutton should remain the clear No. 1 WR but could face a target-share challenge from TE Evan Engram.

Denver signed the former Jaguar to a two-year, $23 million pact in free agency – including $16.5 million guaranteed at signing – and HC Sean Payton has touted Engram as a strong fit for the “joker” role. That has historically been a key RB or TE in Payton’s scheme who specializes in shorter-range work and run-after-catch ability.

The WR corps added only third-round rookie Pat Bryant, who reached 50 receptions in just one of his four college seasons.

Supporting Cast

The Broncos let Javonte Williams walk from a lackluster backfield and replaced him with second-round rookie R.J. Harvey. Payton indicated that he latched onto Harvey early in the evaluation process, and Denver took him earlier than the market expected Harvey to go.

The Broncos ranked just 19th in pass rate last year and could shift that even a bit further toward the run if Harvey pans out. Payton has also expressed optimism for RB Audric Estime’s second season.

Nix delivered a nice rookie season and looks like a positive for the Denver passing game. His best PFF grade for any range came on deep balls (20+ yards downfield). But his worst came in the “medium” range (10-19 yards), where Sutton saw the largest percentage of his 2024 targets.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Payton has long supported helpful fantasy offenses. But it’s still worth noting that 14 of Payton’s 17 seasons as the head man have found Drew Brees behind center.

Payton’s offenses have leaned more toward the run in recent seasons, as Brees’ career wound down and then Denver sported limited QB play.

We’ll see whether finding and developing Nix – plus adding Engram and others – shifts that back the other way at all in 2025.