Jayden Reed Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Reed posted 199 fantasy points (WR29) and 11.7 PPR points per game (WR43) over 17 games.

He turned 75 targets into 44 catches for 857 yards (32nd) and 6 receiving TDs, while adding 163 rushing yards and a TD on 20 carries.

He delivered two fantasy weeks as a top-two fantasy WR, but didn’t finish as a WR2 or better in any other game.

Usage & Role

Reed operated almost exclusively from the slot (77% slot rate, 6th-highest in NFL) and saw a 15.7% target share, down from 17.0% in his rookie season.

While his route rate increased (69%), his targets per route run dipped from 22.9% to 19.2%, suggesting fewer designed looks.

He was often used on jet motion, screens, and intermediate crossers to maximize his yards-after-catch ability.

His rushing role (20 carries) continued to be a creative extension of the run game and adds a bit to his fantasy value.

Efficiency Metrics

Reed’s underlying metrics remained strong when looking at his 2.20 yards per route run (17th among WRs with 50+ targets) and 7.4 yards after catch per reception (4th).

But, other metrics show the inconsistency of Reed’s season. His 8.2-yard average target depth ranked 66th, while his 69.0 PFF receiving grade ranked 52nd.

His 15.9% drop rate (3rd highest) is also a red flag and likely impacted trust on key downs. He continued to outperform his expected TD rate (11.8% actual vs. 9.1% expected), showing he’s a natural playmaker with scoring upside.

Offensive Context

Green Bay transitioned from a balanced offense in 2023 to a run-heavy unit in 2024 (-4.5% pass rate over expected, 48.8% pass rate).

That shift, especially post-Week 8, reduced target volume across the board.

Reed still found splash plays within a condensed scheme, but weekly opportunities were limited by the system’s structure and spreading the ball among several young receivers.

Historical Production & Trends

Reed’s TD efficiency has now exceeded expectations in back-to-back seasons, reinforcing his big-play upside.

However, both target share (17.0% to 15.7%) and targets per route run (22.9% to 19.2%) declined from 2023 to 2024.

Injury History

Reed stayed healthy for all 17 games in 2024, a positive sign after battling minor injuries in 2022 and 2023.

He did suffer a shoulder injury in the Packers’ lone playoff game last year.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Reed returns as the Packers’ primary slot receiver but targets will likely continue to be spread around.

The Packers added first-round WR Matthew Golden while retaining veterans Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.

Christian Watson will be recovering from an ACL tear suffered in January.

The team also brought in free agent Mecole Hardman and drafted Savion Williams in the third round.

TE Tucker Kraft emerged last season, and Luke Musgrave will also be returning to some usage.

Reed should still have a solid role, but there will be target competition.

Supporting Cast

Jordan Love is locked in as the franchise QB and won’t have a nagging groin injury hindering him this season. That could result in a slightly higher pass rate in 2025.

RB Josh Jacobs remains the focal point of the offense and also adds a pass-catching threat.

The Packers return four of their five starting offensive linemen in OTs Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom as well as interior OL Elgton Jenkins and Sean Rhyan. They also added Aaron Banks from the 49ers.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Matt LaFleur’s offense shifted from pass-leaning in 2023 to run-heavy in 2024.

In 2023, the Packers averaged 61.9 plays per game with a 58.1% pass rate, 56.2% neutral pass rate, and +1.9% pass rate over expectation.

In 2024, those numbers dropped to 60.4 plays per game, 48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral pass rate, and a -4.5% pass rate over expectation.

After Love’s groin injury, these numbers were even lower: 48.1% pass rate, 44.7% neutral pass rate, and -5.5% pass rate over expectation from Weeks 9-18.

LaFleur’s fluid offense allows the Packers to lean on what they do best. This season likely sees a rise in pass rate with a healthy Love, but it is doubtful they go back to 2023’s high pass rate.

If the pass rate does spike back to 2023’s rate, Reed could provide fantasy value.