Jonnu Smith Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Smith assembled a huge 2024, finishing as the TE4 in PPR points and points per game.

He finished as a top-12 fantasy TE in 10 of 17 games. He recorded six top-five finishes, with five of them coming after Week 10.

And, not surprisingly, he was noticeably better with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.

In 11 games with Tagovailoa, Smith averaged:

• 6.9 targets
• 5.6 catches
• 57 yards
• .5 TDs

In six games without Tua, Smith averaged:

• 5.8 targets
• 4.3 catches
• 43 yards
• .5 TDs

In total, Smith ranked fourth among TEs in targets (111), catches (88), and receiving yards (884). He tied for second in TDs (8).

Usage & Role

Smith’s 20% target share ranked second on the team behind Tyreek Hill. The veteran TE filled a high-volume short-range role, resulting in a deep target rate of only 3.7%.

HC Mike McDaniel used Smith as a versatile offensive weapon. He played 46% of his passing snaps in the slot, 26.6% inline, and 23.8% out wide, per Pro Football Focus.

Efficiency Metrics

Among 33 TEs with 50+ targets, Smith ranked:

• 5th in yards per route run
• 6th in catch rate
• 7th in yards after catch per reception
• 21st in yards per catch

His average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.0 ranked 30th in the same sample.

McDaniel deserves credit for his creative offensive plans. Smith, though, showed he can separate at an above-average level. He tied for 12th out of 43 qualifiers in ESPN’s Open Score.

Offensive Context

While Tua missed time, Smith benefited from injuries to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Hill rarely looked 100% healthy while playing through a preseason wrist injury. He underwent surgery this offseason.

Jaylen Waddle missed a pair of late-season games. Smith's fantasy finishes in those games: TE9 and TE14.

Overall, Miami ranked 18th in total yards per game and 22nd in points per game. The Fins ranked 11th in pass rate (58.6%), up slightly from 2023.

Historical Production & Trends

Smith set career highs in targets, catches, and yards in 2024. He matched a career high in TDs.

Smith’s 2024 wasn’t totally out of the blue. His production came on the heels of a mini rebound in 2023, when he tallied 50-582-3 with Atlanta.

Injury History

Smith rides into September with no medical concerns. He’s played 17 games in consecutive seasons.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Smith joins a Steelers' roster in need of weapons, but Smith will still have some competition for targets.

Pat Freiermuth and Smith will likely split up the TE targets and could make each other moot in terms of fantasy scoring.

But Smith could edge out Freiermuth if he improves on his 40% slot rate from last season.

WR D.K. Metcalf will likely get the lion's share of those targets, but the rest of the WR group leaves a lot to be desired.

QB Aaron Rodgers will want to pass, and his relationship with Smith could be most important for Smith's fantasy value.

Ultimately, expect Smith to fall shy of the 111 targets he earned last season.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Smith will reunite with OC Arthur Smith on the Steelers who coached him in Atlanta.

On the Falcons, Smith was utilized as an in-line TE, slot WR, and even a FB at times. Expect similar deployment on the Steelers.

The Steelers only had a 50.7% pass rate in 2024, but that number should increase due to Rodgers' presence. Arthur Smith's Falcons at a 52.2% in 2023 with Jonnu Smith on the roster.

He could rise to be second on the team in targets if the offense leans into Smith's slot usage.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Smith turns 30 in August. Our historical aging curves show that, on average, there’s a production decline of ten percentage points from age 29 to age 30.

It’s not a reason to ditch Smith in fantasy. Rather, it’s a reminder to keep expectations in check after a massive eighth-year breakout.