Kyren Williams Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Williams Delivers RB1 Production, But with Fewer Spikes

Williams finished his second starting season as the No. 7 RB in total PPR points; No. 9 in points per game. He finished even higher in other formats, thanks to a second straight season of strong TD production.

Williams fared even better on a per-game basis the year before, ranking second among RBs across formats.

His 2024 included seven top-12 PPR finishes among 16 appearances. That was actually down from 2023, when he posted nine such weeks among 12 games.

Receiving Usage Declines, But Goal-Line Dominance Stays

Williams’ carries per game actually picked up in 2024 vs. his breakout campaign, rising from 19.0 to 19.8. His opportunity share (carries plus targets) saw a slight decrease, from 23% in 2023 to 22.3% last season. Williams went from first in the category to fourth, though even his smaller share would have led in 2023 as well.

The decline came in receiving. Williams drew eight fewer targets last season vs. the year before despite playing four more games. His receptions per game dipped from 2.7 to 2.1, and his yards per catch declined for the second straight year.

The Rams have perennially ranked at or near the bottom of the league in RB receptions since 2019. Last year did find these decreases vs. 2023:

• Team RB reception share from 13.3% to 12.8%
• Williams' route share from 63.4% to 58.8% (adjusted for games missed)
• Williams' target share from 10.7% to 7.3%

Williams did, however, control goal-line work for the second straight year. Only Derrick Henry drew a larger percentage of his team’s carries inside the five-yard line, according to Pro Football Reference. Williams led the league in share of carries inside the 20 and inside the 10.

Williams’ Efficiency Dips Despite Better Blocking

In addition to his yards per catch falling to 5.4, Williams lost 0.9 off his rushing average, dipping to 4.1 yards per carry. Nearly all of that appeared to come before contact. Here’s how his yards per rush broke down the past two years, according to PFR:

• 2023: 3.0 yards before contact; 2.0 after contact
• 2024: 2.2 yards before contact; 1.9 after contact

PFF, on the other hand, charged more of the difference to post-contact running. Including postseason play, PFF had these rates for Williams:

• 2023: 5.0 yards per rush -- 3.27 after contact
• 2024: 4.2 yards per rush -- 2.75 after contact

Either way, the blocking didn’t appear to be the problem. The Rams actually increased their adjusted line yards from 4.55 per attempt in 2023 to 4.65 last year.

The Curious Progression of Williams’ Season

The offense on whole dipped only slightly vs. 2023, ranking 10th in offensive DVOA (9.8%) after finishing seventh in 2023 (12.2%).

Williams spent all of 2024 as much more of a known entity than in his 2023 breakthrough. And multi-game injuries to Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the first half of the season challenged his landscape even further.

Week 10 marked Nacua’s return to near-full usage. Through Week 9, Williams averaged 1.91 yards after contact per carry, according to Fantasy Points Data. From Week 10 on, that number climbed to 2.29.

Interestingly, though, Williams also went from 19.1 expected PPR points per game over the early stretch to just 14.9 per game from Week 10 on.

2025 Expectations

Rams to Alter RB Usage? We’ll See …

We’re expecting Williams to remain the clear leader of the Rams’ backfield, but there’s reason to wonder if the team will shift the workload distribution.

GM Les Snead said on The Rich Eisen Show after the draft: “We do think the way this NFL season’s going — the amount of wear and tear that goes into playing running back — that having a committee, and a committee with different skill sets, only helps us continue being able to run the football like we want to run it.”

At the same time, though, McVay has indicated throughout the offseason that contract-extension talks between Williams and the team seem to be going well -- and that he hopes to keep the RB around.

“He knows how important he is to us,” McVay said at the April league meetings. “He is a very important part of what we want to be moving forward.”

The Rams drafted Corum in Round 3 last year but barely got him onto the field as a rookie. They added Jarquez Hunter in Round 4 this year, and McVay has highlighted the potential for Hunter’s speed to add a different element to the backfield.

We’ll watch through training camp and the preseason for more hints at the specific plan.

Offense Should Benefit from O-line Stability, Receiving Upgrades

The O-line should look just about the same as last year’s version. The Rams did bring back C Coleman Shelton, who started for them in 2022 and 2023 before spending last year with the Bears.

It certainly wouldn’t hurt if G Steve Avila and T Rob Havenstein can stay healthier. They missed seven and six games, respectively, in 2024 — though the unit performed well anyway.

The pass-catching corps will almost certainly be stronger. Nacua remained terrific after returning from injury last season. And a snap share nearly 20 percentage points behind his 2023 mark indicates we probably didn’t even see much of him at full strength.

The Rams dumped Cooper Kupp in the offseason and replaced him with Davante Adams. There’s some risk to a 32-year-old WR, but the combo of moves clearly indicates the team views Adams as an upgrade.

And the TEs should be better with a healthy Tyler Higbee and athletic rookie Terrance Ferguson.

The enhanced receiving group should be more of a positive for the offense on whole than a negative for Williams’ opportunity share.

Strong RB Environment … But a New Challenge?

McVay’s history has found him leaning on a lead back much more often than spreading the work around. He and Snead have publicly pondered the benefits of deploying more of a work share. But we’ll watch for more details on the 2025 plan.

In any case, McVay’s offense should remain friendly to RB production overall. The Rams have actually trended toward less passing in recent seasons. Check out their neutral-situation pass rates since McVay arrived:

• 2017: 58.0% (highest in the league)
• 2018: 56.9% (eighth)
• 2019: 57.5% (fourth)
• 2020: 57.6% (ninth)
• 2021: 58.0% (fifth)
• 2022: 51.7% (14th)
• 2023: 54.5% (12th)
• 2024: 51.0% (20th)

Matthew Stafford missed eight games in 2022, and we already discussed the key WR injuries over the first half of last season. So we should probably expect a rate more like 2023’s than the two surrounding years.

But that would still mean more rushing vs. McVay’s first five seasons.