Puka Nacua Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Nacua finished just 26th in total PPR points in his second season, thanks to six missed games. (More on that later.)

But he checked in fourth among WRs in points per game, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase, Rashee Rice, and Chris Godwin. Take out the Week 1 and Week 9 games he left early, and Nacua jumps to second in points per game.

Those other nine weeks included just two PPR finishes outside the top 20 WRs and none lower than WR30. Nacua reached the top 15 six times, including four weekly finishes of ninth or better.

And despite a knee injury that could have threatened to derail the whole season, the guy won on both usage and performance.

Year 2 Brings Tremendous Usage

We all know Nacua debuted as a shocking fantasy stud in 2023. That included tying for seventh among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

Well, he improved on that — and many other metrics — in his second season.

Nacua checked in fourth in expected PPR points per game last year, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, and Davante Adams. If we check only the nine weeks he didn’t leave early, Nacua jumps to second behind Chase.

And he did all that despite not reaching 80% playing time in a game until Week 16. Nacua played 87.1% of Rams snaps for the season as a rookie, falling short of 80% in just three of his 17 games.

And Puka Delivers Tremendous Efficiency

Let’s start with a seeming negative. Nacua declined from 14.2 yards per catch in 2023 to 12.5 last season. But it’s not hard to explain why. According to Pro Football Reference, his average target depth decreased by 1.2 yards. His yards before catch per reception went from 8.1 in 2023 to 6.0 last year.

So he was simply catching shorter passes on average last season. And doing big things with them.

PFR also credited Nacua with a jump from 56.9% in success rate to 63.2%. That ranked sixth at the position.

His receptions per game bumped up from 6.2 to 7.2. Only Chase and Malik Nabers beat him in 2024. Nacua’s yards per route climbed from 2.75 to 3.23, according to Pro Football Focus, leading all WRs who drew more than 3 targets for the year.

The Rams stud also led the position in PFF receiving grade. And he dominated the position in success per route, according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. Check out the rates for the top 5 in that category:

1. Nacua -- 23.5%
2. Chris Godwin -- 18.2%
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown -- 17.9%
4. A.J. Brown -- 17.2%
5. Drake London -- 16.5%

The 13 WRs behind Godwin in those rankings all finished closer to his rate than Godwin did to Nacua’s. (Sheesh)

Offensive Context

It didn’t hurt that the Rams’ receiving options beyond Nacua kinda stunk last season.

Cooper Kupp — in diminished form — worked as the No. 2 WR. He lost five games to a Week 2 high-ankle sprain. Kupp increased his targets and receptions per game vs. 2023 but declined in basically every other category.

No one else on the team reached 50 receptions. Here’s everyone who got to 30:

• Nacua -- 79
• Kupp -- 67
• Tutu Atwell -- 42
• Kyren Williams -- 34
• Demarcus Robinson -- 31
• Colby Parkinson -- 30

Even with that forgettable cast of pass catchers, the Rams threw at a rate basically identical to 2023: 56.7% vs. 56.4%.

The earlier season won on neutral pass rate, though. The Rams passed in 54.5% of such situations in 2023; 51.0% last year.

Historical Production & Trends

Nacua, of course, broke out as a season-defining fifth-round rookie breakout in 2023.

His 105 receptions led the team by 46. He nearly doubled No. 2 Cooper Kupp in receiving yards. And the rookie led in TD catches even while scoring on just 5.7% of his receptions.

Nacua finished fourth among WRs in total PPR points; sixth in points per game. He tied for sixth at the position in targets, ranked eighth in catches, and finished fourth in receiving yards.

All Good if the Knee’s Good

Nacua entered the 2024 regular season off a knee injury that cost him a lot of August. He immediately aggravated the knee and landed on IR.

The WR made it back for limited playing time in Week 8 and didn’t crack 80% playing time until Week 16. But he produced even more efficiently than 2023 when on the field and suffered no further physical setbacks.

There’s nothing worrisome in his longer injury history, with the biggest ding a foot fracture all the way back in 2019.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Nacua has clearly established himself as a force in both real and fantasy football through just two seasons. And he just turned 24 in late May. Our historical research says he likely hasn’t even reached his scoring peak yet.

Where could he possibly pump up that production? TDs look most obvious, as Nacua’s scored on a meager 4.9% of his receptions to date. Kupp, by comparison, scored on 8.7% of his catches over the past two seasons — even while losing five games to injury each year and watching some punk from BYU overtake him.

Of course, Nacua should face a bigger target-share challenge this year than the version of Kupp he got the past two seasons.

Supporting Cast

Davante Adams is actually about six months older than Kupp. Yet the Rams booted the latter and signed the former for $44 million over two years, with $26 million of that guaranteed. That’s how you know they believe Adams is still good.

Adams ranked sixth among WRs in target share last year (adjusted for games missed), just narrowly trailing Nacua. That came despite a midseason trade to Garrett Wilson’s team … which also sported Adams’ longtime QB buddy, of course.

Adams ranked second the year before and first in 2022. Those three seasons found him turning 30, 31, and 32 in December. He also ranked second in 2021 — his final Packers season — interestingly behind only Kupp.

That Rams team also lost WR Robert Woods at midseason and suffered for a dearth of receiving options behind Kupp otherwise.

The 2020 Rams found Woods and Kupp combining for just one missed game. They finished that season 19th (Kupp) and 22nd (Woods) among WRs in target share.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Rams might be able to fit higher target shares for this new top duo by amping up their passing volume.

They did so in QB Matthew Stafford’s first two seasons: throwing on 60.3% of the offensive plays in 2021 and 58.9% in 2022. The latter came despite Stafford losing eight games to injury.

Those stand as the second- and third-largest passing leans since HC Sean McVay arrived in 2017. His 2024 rate was the lowest since his 2017 debut campaign. And even last year’s slight overall increase actually marked a decline when you look at neutral situations (as we addressed earlier).

The expensive Kupp-to-Adams swap sure seems to indicate plenty of passing in the plans for 2025.