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Buy These Ascending Rookies in Dynasty

Dynasty Rookie Buys

Talented rookies often have a high price tag without playing an NFL game. However, fantasy managers frequently lock themselves into those same values for the first few weeks of the season, even if there is evidence to increase the price tag even more.

When a rookie performs well over the first two weeks of the season, that consensus will lag. Most folks want the sample size to be large enough to trust rookies in dynasty long term.

We can use college profiles, film analysis, and early usage to assess what rookies are likely to catapult in fantasy value moving forward. 

Ascending Players = Value

Identifying ascending players means capitalizing on trades to add value to your dynasty team.

If a rookie checks all the boxes to ascend to the top of his position, paying the premium to trade for him now is worthwhile.

If the team situation causes other managers to devalue a player, take advantage and trade for him before the situation changes or playing time increases.

Let’s dive into three rookies who are already ascending but are still values heading into Week 3.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

Bowers already sits atop our TE dynasty rankings, but the consensus has been slow to catch up to valuing Bowers that high.

He checks every box to be right in line with Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid.

College Dominance

Bowers broke out at 18 years old in the SEC, dominating Alabama with ten catches and 139 yards just ten days shy of his 19th birthday.

His college profile just got better with time as Georgia used him as a blocker, receiver, and runner. He showcased dynamic abilities that would translate to being more than just a typical in-line TE in the NFL.

So far, the Raiders have only scratched the surface of Bowers’ potential, but the signs all point to Bowers continuing to ascend to the best fantasy TE in the league.

Early NFL Success

Statistically, Bowers has already paid dividends in the first two weeks:

• 17 targets
• 15 receptions
• 146 yards

Though he hasn’t scored a TD yet, Bowers has been close. He will surely get there, especially if his 88.2% catch rate sustains.

Bowers led all TEs (and rookies in general) in average separation (4.0 yards) in Week 2. He was fourth overall among players who got five or more targets. 

Being used in-line, lining up wide, and in the screen game shows Bowers' versatility. He will continue producing in PPR, and even more success will come as he continues to improve.

Brock Bowers Film Analysis

Bowers lines up in the slot on this near TD with a Trips Left look. Gardner Minshew is forced off his first read, scrambling to the right and looking to Bowers.

Bowers comes back to his QB perfectly, getting open for a catch.

The key in this play is Bowers recognizing the zone coverage. He blasts through the pressing LB's contact and uses the 9-route to hold the safety back.

Immediately upon looking back and seeing Minshew out of the pocket, Bowers boxes out the safety to work back and get an easy long catch.

This was a play most veteran TEs couldn’t dream of setting up correctly.

Also, his use in the screen game is excellent for PPR, even when he has to overcome the poor QB play by Minshew

Bowers comes in motion into a Jet TE Screen play. 

Minshew double clutches and still throws the ball too high. Bowers leaps to make the catch with some solid blocking in front of him. He navigates the traffic for a solid pick-up.

Had the pass been accurate, giving Bowers more time before the defense closed in, it could have been an even bigger play.

Bet on the future of better QB play coming to the Raiders in a year or two to fully unlock Bowers. 

On our Trade Value Chart, Bowers is the top TE, but there is still a window to get Bowers and a second-round pick for LaPorta. 

If you have one of the other top TEs like Kincaid, it is worth a shot to try and get Bowers and a 3rd -- and then settle on a straight-up trade if it comes to it.

When he passes all those TEs in value, an extra rookie pick will have just been a bonus.

Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets

Allen was touted as one of the toughest backs in the NFL Draft but fell to the fourth round and was scooped up by the Jets.

Being behind stud Breece Hall was a disastrous spot to fantasy managers, but Allen has impressed throughout training camp and is already the clear backup.

In Week 2, he showed that he has standalone value. But even after his two-TD performance, the consensus has not caught up to that yet.

Overlooked College Profile

There is no earlier breakout than Allen. As a 17-year-old freshman, Allen had seven straight 100-yard rushing games, including a 228-yard outing against Nebraska. He had 11 TDs in those games as well.

Wisconsin's ground-and-pound nature favored Allen until his Junior season, when a coaching change switched the offense to spread concepts.

Allen rose to the challenge and caught 13 passes in the first two games. But, an injury-plagued season caused his profile to be overlooked, knocking him to Day 3.

But upon coming into camp, he almost immediately won the backup role and showed he could play at the next level despite not being able to drink legally yet. 

He is currently the youngest player in the entire NFL, having just turned 20 in January. He still has a ton of room for growth and is already carving up NFL defenses.

Braelon Allen Film Analysis

Allen scored two TDs in Week 2, one on the ground and one through the air. This run shows the fluidity and vision Allen brings to the table.

At first glance, this appears to be a typical off-tackle run with great blocking, but most RBs with Allen’s 235-pound frame wouldn’t have scored a TD here. 

He immediately looks to the second level after taking the handoff, reading Titans S Amani Hooker. 

Hooker expects to be able to crash down and stop the play after a five-yard gain or so, but Allen’s smooth explosion off the snap gets him to the second level quicker than Hooker can get to the line.

Allen is reading Hooker’s movements the whole way. He freezes Hooker with the explosion and then sees that Hooker won’t be able to change direction to meet him on the sideline. Allen takes advantage and glides right past Hooker to get the score.

The vision combined with Allen’s skills is better than half of the starting RBs in the league right now.  

Most highlights will show Allen’s TD catch, but his other reception caught my eye.

The key here is Allen’s pre-snap motion out wide. The fact that he is trusted to line-up as a split end shows a true belief in his receiving ability. 

Allen’s motion revealed a Cover-3 defense, so he runs a short hitch route (and possibly had an option route choice on the play). Aaron Rodgers trusts him and completes the quick pass.

Carrying S Quandre Diggs an additional five yards with his power is icing on the cake of a scripted Cover-3 beater that highlights Allen as a receiver.   

He ended Week 2 with a stat line of:

• 20 Snaps (35%)
• 7 rushes
• 33 rushing yards
• 2 catches on 4 targets
• 23 receiving yards
• 2 total TDs

Expect more receiving usage moving forward and possibly more snaps with both Hall and Allen on the field.

Even with Hall in front of him, Allen has some standalone value. If Hall ever goes down with an injury, Allen has top-five RB upside.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots

The Patriots drafted Polk 34th overall over notable WRs like Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin. With a weak WR group in New England, Polk had the opportunity to produce early in his career. 

He built up some buzz in training camp and is on the verge of ascending to the top of the Patriots depth chart.

Late Bloomer

Polk broke out in his final year at Washington with 1,159 yards and 10 total TDs. At 6’1 and 203 pounds, his solid size was used to beat the press and sound route running gained him separation.

His film was stellar, playing all over the formation both in the slot and out wide. 

This type of easy target intrigued NFL teams and caused him to jump to the top of Round 2 in the draft.

Ja’Lynn Polk Film Analysis

Polk is starting to ascend with good NFL play. 

He led the Patriots WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade (60.4) for Week 2.

Let’s break down a few of his catches, starting with the first TD of his NFL career

The key to this TD is Polk’s precise route running to split the LB and separate from the safety.

Polk starts from a right stack on an In route. He identifies the shallow zone from the middle linebacker and cheats his route toward the corner while accelerating to separate from the safety.

It is a perfect route that results in an easy TD as the second read from Jacoby Brissett.

This shows the red zone value of Polk with his size and footwork. Expect more red zone snaps moving forward.

Polk’s other catch in Week 2 came as the X WR.

Polk beats a potential jam with his footwork but doesn’t waste much time getting started on his Curl route.

He fakes the fly, but can’t get the CB to bite before curling. Brissett throws it to Polk’s outside shoulder and Polk moves and adjusts to make a tough catch.

That type of awareness and recognition should keep Polk on the field, potentially even more at the X WR spot.

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.