Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 8

     

Welcome to Week 8’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The data below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 8 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 8!

 

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Packers at Jaguars (49.0)
2. Eagles at Bengals (47.5)
t-3. Cowboys at 49ers (47.0)
t-3. Vikings at Rams (47.0)
5. Falcons at Buccaneers (46.5)

       

Lowest Game Totals

12. Chiefs at Raiders (42.0)
t-13. Jets at Patriots (41.0)
t-13. Saints at Chargers (41.0)
t-13. Panthers at Broncos (41.0)
16. Giants at Steelers (36.5)

               

Highest Implied Points

1. Lions (28.0)
2. Packers (26.25)
t-3. Ravens (26.0)
t-3. Broncos (26.0)
5. 49ers (25.75)
6. Chiefs (25.25)

   

Lowest Implied Points

27. Patriots (17.0)
t-28. Saints (16.75)
t-28. Raiders (16.75)
30. Titans (16.5)
31. Giants (15.25)
32. Panthers (15.0)

  

Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected

Here's where every team stands in plays per game, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and Pass Rate Over Expected through 7 weeks:

       

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Texans (65.7)
2. Eagles (65.3)
3. Lions (65.0)
4. Ravens (64.5)
t-5. Seahawks (64.2)
t-5. Chiefs (64.2)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Cardinals (59.3)
29. Titans (59.2)
30. Colts (58.8)
31. Saints (58.7)
32. Panthers (58.6)

     

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

 

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

t-1. Colts at Texans (26.9 seconds)
t-1. Cardinals at Dolphins (26.9 seconds)
t-1. Bills at Seahawks (26.9 seconds)
4. Falcons at Buccaneers (27.7 seconds)
5. Vikings at Rams (28.0 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

12. Titans at Lions (28.7 seconds)
t-13. Jets at Patriots (28.8 seconds)
t-13. Panthers at Broncos (28.8 seconds)
15. Giants at Steelers (28.9 seconds)
16. Saints at Chargers (29.0 seconds)

    

Weather Concerns

Bills at Seahawks

Rain is expected at least during the first half of this game. Winds are forecasted at 10-15 mph with gusts of 25+. Less than ideal conditions for the passing and kicking games. We're not adjusting projections for either offense, but try to avoid both kickers in this one.

  

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Packers at Jaguars (+84.9%)
2. Ravens at Browns (+84.1%)
3. Bills at Seahawks (+52.6%)
4. 49ers vs. Cowboys (+48.9%)
5. Buccaneers vs. Falcons (+46.1%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

28. Rams vs. Vikings (-21.8%)
29. Raiders vs. Chiefs (-29.1%)
30. Titans at Lions (-33.4%)
31. Browns vs. Ravens (-34.1%)
32. Panthers at Broncos (-40.0%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jordan Love at Jaguars (+72%)
2. Kirk Cousins at Buccaneers (+33%)
3. Bo Nix vs. Panthers (+32%)
4. Jameis Winston vs. Ravens (+26%)
5. Josh Allen at Seahawks (+18%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Drake Maye vs. Jets (-17%)
29. Justin Herbert vs. Saints (-19%)
30. Bryce Young at Broncos (-29%)
31. Marcus Mariota vs. Bears (-35%)
32. Kyler Murray at Dolphins (-43%)

   

Sneaky Starters

Sam Darnold, Vikings

Darnold was just ok from a fantasy perspective last week, finishing 13th among QBs in points. He played well, though, completing 82% of his passes and averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

The problem, as it's been all season, was volume. He attempted just 27 passes last week and still hasn't topped 31 in a game this year.

That's been due to game flow, though, and not design. The Vikings still rank second in pass rate over expected for the season and lead the league over the last four weeks.

So Darnold should see some positive regression in passing volume going forward. That could start on Thursday night against a Rams team that is getting WR Cooper Kupp (and WR Puka Nacua?) back. This game has a 48.5-point over/under. Minnesota's 25.75-point implied total is fifth-highest on the week.

The Rams rank 24th in pass defense DVOA.

Caleb Williams, Bears

Williams rolled into the bye week with QB6 and QB1 fantasy finishes. He earned his two highest Pro Football Focus passing grades in those two games, including a sterling 82.8 mark in Week 6 that led all QBs. And he's running. Williams is averaging 28.2 rushing yards per game, including 34+ in three of his six outings.

Williams comes off the bye for an excellent spot against a leaky Washington pass defense that ranks 25th in DVOA.

       

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Ravens at Browns (+17.3%)
2. Chiefs at Raiders (+13.8%)
3. Commanders vs. Bears (+12.2%)
4. Eagles at Bengals (+11.5%)
5. Broncos vs. Panthers (+9.2%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

28. Colts at Texans (-28.0%)
29. Dolphins vs. Cardinals (-28.9%)
30. Giants at Steelers (-35.8%)
31. Browns vs. Ravens (-41.3%)
32. Raiders vs. Chiefs (-43.7%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Broncos vs. Panthers (+56%)
2. Seahawks vs. Bills (+32%)
3. Chargers vs. Saints (+29%)
4. Chiefs at Raiders (+28%)
5. Packers at Jaguars (+23%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Bengals vs. Eagles (-15%)
29. Buccaneers vs. Falcons (-16%)
30. Colts at Texans (-21%)
31. Titans at Lions (-29%)
32. Raiders vs. Chiefs (-50%)

   

Sneaky Starters

Jaylen Warren, Steelers

Warren quietly set season highs last week in snap rate (50%), route rate (58%), and carry share (33%). He's off the injury report and seemingly trending up.

Warren still trailed RB Najee Harris 21 to 12 in carries in Week 7. Harris has topped 100 rushing yards in two straight and should remain the lead back this week. But we could see these guys combine for 30+ carries again on Monday night, with the Steelers 6-point favorites over the Giants.

Warren is in play as a RB3 or Flex.

Raheem Mostert, Dolphins

QB Tua Tagovailoa's return boosts the fantasy appeal of everyone in this offense. The Dolphins averaged just 10 points per game with Tagovailoa out over the last four games. They're implied for 25 vs. the Cardinals this weekend.

Mostert was the clear No. 2 RB behind De'Von Achane last week but still garnered 11 carries. I think he gets 10-12 touches in a potential high-scoring game this weekend, making him a viable RB3 or Flex play.

     

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Packers at Jaguars (+42%)
2. Browns vs. Ravens (+34%)
3. Titans at Lions (+17%)
4. Rams vs. Vikings (+15%)
5. Falcons at Buccaneers (+15%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Raiders vs. Chiefs (-23%)
29. Cardinals at Dolphins (-24%)
30. Lions vs. Titans (-26%)
31. Washington vs. Bears (-27%)
32. Panthers at Broncos (-32%)

   

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Rams WR Cooper Kupp vs. Vikings CB Byron Murphy

Bears WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen vs. Commanders CBs Emmanuel Forbes, Benjamin St. Juste, and Mike Sainristil

Jets WRs Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Allen Lazard vs. Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, and Marcus Jones

Packers WRs Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks vs. Jaguars CBs Ronald Darby, Tyson Campbell, and Jarrian Jones

Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins

Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin vs. Panthers CBs Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Cardinals WRs Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson vs. Dolphins CBs Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith vs. Bengals CB Mike Hilton

Panthers WR Diontae Johnson vs. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain

Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett, Jake Bobo, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Bills CBs Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Taron Johnson

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon

       

Sneaky Starters

Darnell Mooney, Falcons

Mooney has been quiet the last two weeks, but he's still totaled a decent 13 targets on a 17% share.

Sunday brings a rematch vs. the Buccaneers defense he smoked for a 9-105-2 line back in Week 5.

Since then, Tampa Bay allowed 15.5 PPR points to Bub Means and 22.1 to Rashod Bateman. The Bucs are down to 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Romeo Doubs, Packers

In two games since boycotting practice and getting suspended by the team, Doubs has posted 3-49-2 and 8-94-0 receiving lines. He remains the Packers' leader in pass routes.

That sets him up as a viable WR3 in Sunday's matchup against the Jaguars. This is the biggest passing mismatch on the week according to DVOA. And Jacksonville ranks dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, providing a 42% scoring boost to the position.

  

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Bills at Seahawks (+63%)
2. Raiders vs. Chiefs (+58%)
3. Packers at Jaguars (+48%)
4. Eagles at Bengals (+44%)
5. Giants at Steelers (+42%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Titans at Lions (-34%)
29. Cardinals at Dolphins (-44%)
30. Ravens at Browns (-44%)
31. Lions vs. Titans (-46%)
32. Bengals vs. Eagles (-49%)

   

Sneaky Starter

Cade Otton, Buccaneers

Otton already ranks fourth among TEs in targets and fifth in catches. He'll find a lot more opportunity in Week 8 with WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out. Those guys accounted for 46% of Tampa Bay's targets over the first seven games of the season.

Otton gets a Falcons defense on Sunday that ranks a middling 13th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

   

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ravens at Browns (+279%)
2. Cardinals at Dolphins (+162%)
3. Chargers vs. Saints (+146%)
4. Jets at Patriots (+92%)
5. Chiefs at Raiders (+90%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Giants at Steelers (-38%)
29. Texans vs. Colts (-40%)
30. Seahawks vs. Bills (-53%)
31. Bears at Commanders (-72%)
32. Browns vs. Ravens (-73%)

    

Sneaky Starters

Check out our top Week 8 Streaming DSTs.

 

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chase McLaughlin vs. Falcons (+52%)
2. Chad Ryland at Dolphins (+48%)
3. Jake Bates vs. Titans (+40%)
4. Wil Lutz vs. Panthers (+36%)
5. Harrison Butker at Raiders (+30%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Chris Boswell vs. Giants (-23%)
29. Cam Little vs. Packers (-23%)
30. Greg Joseph at Steelers (-47%)
31. Blake Grupe at Chargers (-48%)
32. Joshua Karty vs. Vikings (-50%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Will Reichard, Vikings

Reichard has yet to miss an NFL kick. The rookie has connected on all 12 of his FG tries and all 18 of his XPs this season.

He's in a prime Week 8 spot kicking indoors with the Vikings 3-point favorites with a 25.75-point total vs. the Rams.