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10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy

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What’s the best strategy for a 10-team, half-PPR draft? Let’s break that down …

Drafting in a 10-team league vs. 12 means more value in securing a top player at a certain spot. 

You gain more advantage from locking up the No. 1 QB or TE, for example, when there are fewer teams than you do when the league is larger.

There’s not quite as much emphasis here on those one-starter positions, though, as you’ll find in an eight-team setup.

Playing half-PPR decreases the impact of receiving volume vs. full-PPR formats. 

You’ll still tend to favor higher-volume pass-catchers, because more opportunities generally mean more production. But the format plays friendlier to efficient producers, guys who do a better job of turning targets into yards and TDs. It’s less kind to the WRs who load up on short-range receptions.

But it also lessens the heavy TD reliance that you find in non-PPR setups.

Your specific draft strategy will depend on the particulars of your draft.

That’s why we start this process with the industry’s best fantasy draft cheat sheet: the Draft War Room.

It syncs directly with your redraft league to import your scoring and lineup settings. Then it tracks the action -- in real time -- throughout your draft, constantly recalculating player values as you go to deliver updated pick recommendations at every turn.

For this article, I manually set up a Draft War Room for 10 teams, half-PPR scoring and these lineup settings:

• 1 QB
• 2 RBs
• 2 WRs
• 1 TE
• 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 K
• 1 DST
• 7 bench spots

Then I ran through a 16-round draft from each pick zone to lay out the best strategy from any position.

To find the fantasy football help appropriate to your draft position, see below …

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 1, 2, or 3

Round 1

Top Target: Ja'Marr Chase

You'll likely find Chase projected for fewer fantasy points than the two RBs listed below. But there's a larger drop from his projection to the WRs likely to greet your next turn than you'll find between the RBs.

That puts last year's league champ in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs atop the board here. And Chase's lead grows, of course, if you need to start three wideouts instead of two.

Next Best: Saquon Barkley

Barkley edges Bijan Robinson by a slim margin, slim enough that you can feel free to lean toward the Falcon if you prefer.

That's my personal lean, to be honest. I like the higher floor that comes with Robinson's much stronger receiving role (28 more targets, 27 more catches last year).

But either guy's clearly capable of leading the position in scoring.

Other options

Bijan Robinson

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Brian Thomas Jr. & Kyren Williams

Thomas' ADP took a slight hit after his team drafted Travis Hunter second overall, but it probably shouldn't have.

"Our pass game will run through him," new HC Liam Coen said back in February at the Combine. "Super excited to get to work with him."

Thomas' current ADP says you might get a shot at him in this range, and that Hunter factor figures to push him down in plenty of individual drafts.

Williams, meanwhile, has taken even more fire from doubters scared that the fourth-round arrival of rookie RB Jarquez Hunter signals a Rams committee.

The market sported similar fears last year after L.A. drafted Blake Corum in Round 3, but Williams finished a second straight year among the league's top 4 in opportunity share. He could lose some work off that and still be a strong value here.

Next Best: Bucky Irving & Drake London

It's OK to favor double-tapping RB at this turn if you drafted Chase first. But the Draft War Room favors splitting between RB and WR if either of these wideouts reaches you.

London enjoyed a particularly strong finish to 2024 after QB Michael Penix Jr. took over. He's unlikely to continue the nearly 40% target share from that stretch across 2025, but we know London's the receiving centerpiece.

Irving faces the challenge of an OC switch, but new guy Josh Grizzard spent last season as the pass-game coordinator under then-OC Liam Coen. And he has already signaled that he liked where last year's backfield ended up.

"I would say how we ended last season was essentially where we would take off," he said in May.

Last year, of course, ended with Irving taking over the backfield and scoring like a RB1.

Other Options

Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Lamar Jackson, Breece Hall, Joe Mixon

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Breece Hall & Alvin Kamara

Check out the RBs available at this turn if you're wondering why the Draft War Room wanted you to grab a WR2 last time.

This pair could give you two of the position's top five in receptions for the season. That obviously doesn't deliver quite the boost you'd get in a full-PPR setup, but you get half the reception boost (duh) and more yards per touch than rushing provides.

Kamara carries age-cliff risk, but New Orleans combatted that by making him the position's usage leader last year.

Hall faces a workload question under the Jets' new coaching staff, but he remains a high-level talent and the team's best receiving back.

Next Best: Kenneth Walker III & James Conner

Walker delivered strong efficiency amid multiple 2024 injuries, operating as Seattle's lead back whenever healthy. New OC Klint Kubiak sounds ready to continue that.

"We're gonna ask a lot out of him," Kubiak said after arriving.

As for Conner, it wouldn't be draft season if the market were not underrating him. Conner's current RB20 ADP is just insulting vs. where he finished in half-PPR points per game the past four years in Arizona:

• sixth
• 10th
• 11th
• 15th (without removing the two games he left early)

Other Options

Chuba Hubbard, Rashee Rice, Mike Evans

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: DeVonta Smith & Isiah Pacheco

If you get to Round 6 with two WRs and three RBs, then your Draft War Room rankings probably sport a lot of navy blue up top (receivers). But tap a wideout, and that quickly turns red (RBs) for the next pick.

Smith shouldn't need much of a sales pitch as your third receiver in Round 6. Sure, he runs second to A.J. Brown. But Smith does so in a concentrated pass offense that afforded him the 12th-highest target share among WRs last season (adjusted for games missed). And he makes up for the team's low target volume by delivering strong efficiency:

• 69.8% career catch rate
• 9.1 yards per target

Pacheco leads Jones by just 0.4 in 3D Value on my board and actually trails the Viking in baseline projection. But the Chief wins on ceiling projection, and I'd much rather chase his upside in that offense rather than the 30-year-old Jones.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle & Aaron Jones

That said, Jones is coming off career highs in carries, rushing yards, and total touches. So I'm not all that worried about him remaining useful. Ceding some work to Jordan Mason might even help Jones' efficiency.

Waddle could easily sub in for Smith here if you'd rather buy into his rebound. Last season's usage marked a detour vs. Waddle's tremendous first three seasons. And I don't believe it's a coincidence that Miami's offense suffered.

The ultimate ceiling case for Waddle this year could even find him overtaking Tyreek Hill (now 31) as the target leader.

Other Options

Courtland Sutton, Tony Pollard, TreVeyon Henderson, Zay Flowers, Tetairoa McMillan

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Tetairoa McMillan & Justin Fields

If the Panthers rookie makes it to you here, he's a nice bet to make.

Carolina drafted McMillan eighth overall to a needy WR corps, with a third-year QB who showed much more promise in the second half of 2024. The rookie could immediately take the target lead and make for a strong WR4 on your squad.

For the second pick here, I need to admit something ...

Brian Robinson actually leads Fields in 3D Value in my Draft War Room. But if I get to Round 9 with four RBs and four WRs, I'm reaching over the RB for Fields.

One key reason: Fields' ADP for this 10-team format sits in Round 13 as of this writing. I don't trust that to hold true through draft season. I expect there's a better chance he won't get back to my next turn. But the DWR sees that ADP and assumes I can at least wait until the 10-11 turn and still get Fields.

Next Best: Chris Olave & Brian Robinson Jr.

Of course, you can pass on Fields and keep stacking production elsewhere. Even if he doesn't make it back to you, there are other worthwhile QB paths.

Robinson and Olave make obvious sense as at least backup options at this turn. Robinson will continue to lead the rushing side of Washington's split backfield and benefits from the unit's overall strength (re: scoring chances).

Olave brings concussion risk and a big QB question. But getting him at the WR4-5 level instead of in Round 3 (his 2024 ADP) mitigates those challenges.

Other Options

Chris Godwin, Jaylen Warren, Cam Skattebo, Justin Herbert

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Justin Fields & Dalton Kincaid

For this exercise, I selected Robinson over Fields last time to see what that would mean at QB. Unsurprisingly, Fields now leads the recommendations by a wide margin. If you passed last time and still find him available, congrats on working the market in your favor.

Why does Fields matter? His only two full seasons as starter found him ranking fifth (2022) and ninth (2023) among QBs in points per game. The rushing production counters his passing volatility, boosting both the weekly floor and ceiling.

After you've secured a QB here, TE becomes the top priority. And Kincaid looks like at least an attractive floor play at this stage.

You might want to drug-test me for saying that about a guy who ranked 24th among TEs in half-PPR points per game last season. But Kincaid dealt with a pair of leg injuries and still finished the year 10th at the position in target share (adjusted for games missed).

I'll bet on that guy at this stage with Josh Allen as his QB, especially when that guy is a 25-year-old former first-round pick.

Next Best: Justin Herbert & Tyler Warren

If you passed on Fields earlier and don't find him available now, then Herbert's the likely fall back. He probably doesn't match Fields in ceiling. But he'd be fine.

My biggest question is what the Chargers' run-pass split will look like. The team leaned much more into the pass over the second half of last season. But then L.A. imported both Najee Harris and first-round pick Omarion Hampton.

That plus the histories of Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman have me expecting at least a slight increase in the rushing rate.

Warren offers intriguing upside if you get here wanting a TE but don't find Kincaid available. The 14th overall pick in 2025 would probably benefit from Daniel Jones beating out Anthony Richardson.

Other Options

Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Jakobi Meyers, Ricky Pearsall, Caleb Williams

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Jayden Reed & Tank Bigsby

The strategy for this turn is less about specific players and more about grabbing your favorite upside options at RB and/or WR.

Your Draft War Room will have switched into Upside Mode a couple turns before this (halfway through your draft), which amplifies the effect of a player's ceiling projection and likelihood of hitting that ceiling.

Why? Because we're hunting for true difference makers at this point over guys who "make sense." That means targeting a player with a shrouded but present upside path over a guy who's gonna top out as No. 36 at his position.

Reed spent his first two years outperforming his usage. So his upside path merely requires more target volume. That could come via a boost to his role or just Green Bay leaning back toward the pass instead of last year's out-of-character run-heaviness.

Bigsby? Jacksonville should feature an open competition for backfield roles. Combine that with the upside system of new HC Liam Coen, and grabbing any Jaguars RB(s) makes sense in the double-digit rounds.

Next Best: Brandon Aiyuk & Najee Harris

Aiyuk's a nice bench target as well. We obviously don't yet know how soon he'll be ready for full duty or even if he'll reach full strength at any point this season.

But these rounds are where you bet on the upside and don't sweat the risk. If Aiyuk doesn't work out or you simply need that roster spot for something else, dump him.

Harris figures to trail Omarion Hampton in usage and production by season's end -- and might even do so from the start. But he's at least a nice handcuff and could also maintain standalone value.

Other Options

Rashid Shaheed, Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs, Jordan Mason, Tyjae Spears

One more note on the ADPs here: If you covet any of these players, don't trust the ADP to guarantee that you another shot at them. Pass on Josh Downs in Round 13, for example, only if you'll be OK missing out on him altogether.

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Time to secure your season-opening kicker and team defense. Your DWR rankings will obviously still help with both.

Our Trust Factor ratings add a layer at DST by favoring positive early-season matchups and devaluing defenses with bad initial matchups.

That’s how you should play the position all season rather than trying to find one every-week starter (in most formats).

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 4, 5, or 6

Round 1

Top Target: CeeDee Lamb

If your draft sees Ja'Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson occupy the first three slots, then you'll likely see Lamb and Jefferson get here separated by less than 1 point in 3D Value. So feel free to pick your favorite between them.

I'll take Lamb with the QB he has always known and in what's likely to rank among the league's pass-friendliest offenses.

New HC Brian Schottenheimer has leaned that way through a long OC career, and Dallas' offseason moves -- George Pickens trade, light backfield investment -- point to featuring the pass.

Next Best: Justin Jefferson

Of course, there ain't nothin' wrong with Jefferson either. Sure, J.J. McCarthy's a relative unknown after missing all of his rookie season. But Sam Darnold stunk before last year.  And the year before found Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall combining for nine starts.

Downgrading Jefferson for his unknown QB -- who did get drafted 10th overall, by the way -- would seem like a mistake.

Other Options

Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua

McCaffrey leads Nacua in 3D Value points behind Lamb and Jefferson. Both make for strong bets in the middle of Round 1, though. Feel free to favor the WR if McCaffrey's 2024 scares you off. (Just don't forget what he did in a healthy 2023.)

Round 2

Top Target: Nico Collins

Even if you took a WR in Round 1, the Draft War Room likely still prefers a second WR here. That points to the strong value if Collins, Thomas, or even A.J. Brown reaches you.

(Brown jumps ahead of the RBs on my board if Collins and Thomas are gone.)

That's about both the high-level production we project for all three WRs and the drop-off from them to the WRs likely to make it back over the next couple of rounds.

It also tells you that you should expect less value decline at RB over the same span. You can thank the market for underrating players such as Joe Mixon and Breece Hall.

Next Best: Brian Thomas Jr.

Collins and Thomas both present strong recent production profiles and both play with QBs who should improve in 2025 vs. last year's versions. Either will treat you well at this stage.

And if both are gone, Brown remains a stud. The only thing that went wrong for him last year was health (three games lost to a hamstring injury).

Other Options

A.J. Brown, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams

Round 3

Top Target: Breece Hall

Hall leads the recommendations here even though his ADP for the format says you're likely to get another shot at him in Round 4. That's primarily because he beats the other listed RBs in our ceiling projections.

Hall, of course, finished third among half-PPR RBs in 2023. So we know the upside's there.

Next Best: Chase Brown

Brown also showed us his upside when pressed into the lead role over the second half of last season. From Week 6 on, Brown ranked eighth among RBs in half-PPR points per game -- and second in expected points per game.

That means his usage could have supported even more fantasy production. And the Bengals did nothing this offseason to signal they want to substantially shrink his role. The additions:

• Samaje Perine (turns 30 on Sept. 16)
• sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks

Other Options

Drake London, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara

Round 4

Top Target: Joe Burrow

It'd be nice to get a shot at Jalen Hurts here, and he's the pick over Burrow if he makes it to you. But the Draft War Room still favors QB if it works out this way.

That's because Burrow sits well ahead of No. 6 Patrick Mahomes in our projections, and his ADP for the format says you shouldn't expect to see Burrow available in Round 5.

You shouldn't need much more case building for the QB who finished second in scoring last year and plays in the league's pass-heaviest offense.

Next Best: Alvin Kamara

Like Hurts, Joe Mixon might make it to this turn, but ADP says you can't count on it. he does lead Kamara in our half-PPR rankings, but both look good in this range.

Kamara ranked third among RBs in opportunity share last season (adjusted for games missed), trailing only Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor.

Other Options

Kenneth Walker III, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Rashee Rice, Mike Evans

Round 5

Top Target: James Conner

I find Conner and Hubbard tied in 3D Value at this turn. I'll take the veteran who has finished each of his four Cardinal seasons among the top 15 in half-PPR points per game. But it's fine if you'd rather target the younger guy.

Next Best: Chuba Hubbard

Carolina handed Hubbard a little more than $8 million per year on a four-year extension last November. So we know he'll continue leading the backfield.

The risk: Hubbard's receiving work hasn't proved nearly as good as his rushing. So he could cede a large share of those duties to Rico Dowdle and/or Trevor Etienne.

Either way -- or even if you prefer one of the names below -- you're likely leaving Round 5 with two quality starters at RB, a strong pair of WRs, and a high-level QB.

Other Options

David Montgomery, Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, D.J. Moore

Round 6

Top Target: David Montgomery

We've talked at times -- especially on the podcast -- about the risks facing Jahmyr Gibbs at his first-round price tag this year. Montgomery presents some risk as well, as Detroit switches OCs and probably doesn't score as much as it did last year.

But Montgomery's getting here likely your third RB. It'll still suck if he lets you down, but a disappointing sixth-round pick isn't wrecking your season.

(If you wind up thinking it did, then you're lying to yourself about your fugly roster.)

Of course, the reason Montgomery leads the recommendations here is the upside. Before his Week 15 knee injury last season, Monty ranked 15th among RBs in expected half-PPR points per game ... five spots ahead of Gibbs.

That doesn't mean we're betting on this guy to outscore his speedy teammate. It does mean Montgomery was beating Gibbs in usage before going down.

Next Best: Quinshon Judkins

This outlook got a lot more challenging when police charged Judkins with battery. We'll see how that situation develops.

If he's playing football as scheduled this season, though, Judkins presents loads of upside. The Browns drafted him 36th overall to lead its backfield under run-favoring HC Kevin Stefanski.

Judkins combines an impressive college production profile with terrific Combine testing and that draft capital to present Breakout potential (if he's not in jail).

Other Options

Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift, RJ Harvey, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle

Round 7

Top Target: Jaylen Waddle

Get here with a QB, three RBs, and two WRs, and you're likely staring at a WR-led board. Feel free to celebrate if that means landing Waddle in the middle of Round 7.

Your league mates will think you're goofy for celebrating a dude who finished 60th in half-PPR points per game last season. But you'll know that was a dramatic outlier vs. his previous three seasons.

Waddle's 7.8 half-PPR points per game in 2024 followed averages of:

• 11.6
• 13.2
• 12.2

I'll happily bet on Miami fixing the usage for a 26-year-old former first-round pick, who set the rookie reception record in 2021 and then led the league in yards per catch (18.1) as a sophomore).

Next Best: Tetairoa McMillan

If you still doubt Waddle, it's fine to take a shot on this year's eighth-overall pick. McMillan joins a pass offense that desperately needs him and a QB who enjoyed a huge rebound over the second half of 2024.

McMillan looks like the favorite to lead the Panthers in targets immediately and sports the frame to win plenty of contested end-zone targets.

Other Options

Jameson Williams, George Pickens, Isiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones

Round 8

Top Target: TreVeyon Henderson

I'll be surprised if Henderson actually commonly makes it to Round 8 this summer. But that's what the ADP says at the moment.

It's tough to know just what his work share will look like in an offense that has changed a lot vs. last year's debacle. But this is plenty late enough that you shouldn't worry about figuring it out. Just chase the upside of a guy New England drafted with the sixth pick of Round 2.

Next Best: Tetairoa McMillan

McMillan similarly seems likely to go earlier than his ADP promises. Fantasy managers tend to get excited about rookies. But he's an even better bet in this round than he was last round if he gets here.

Other Options

Kaleb Johnson, Chris Olave, Brian Robinson Jr., Jordan Addison

Round 9

Top Target: Chris Olave

We're in Upside Mode now, baby. That's when your Draft War Room accentuates the impact of player ceiling projections and ceiling likelihood to focus even more on upside.

We've gotten here with a QB, four RBs, and three WRs. And now the Draft War Room loves the receiver value.

Olave makes sense as a group leader here. You might see his name and think immediately about how the Saints plan to start a giant question mark at QB this year. But that's the biggest reason their lead wideout can now be found available six rounds after his 2024 ADP.

There's still risk, of course, in both the offense and Olave's concussion history. But he's also one of just five WRs to have averaged 2.05+ yards per route on 40+ targets each of the past three years. The other four:

• Justin Jefferson
• A.J. Brown
• CeeDee Lamb
• Amon-Ra St. Brown

Next Best: Chris Godwin

If you still just don't want Olave -- or don't find him available -- then Godwin's a nice stash at this point.

That might change if we get close to the season and he's still sidelined by the recovery from last year's ankle injury. But Godwin ranked third among WRs in fantasy points per game before going down.

Get anywhere close to that from your ninth-round pick, and your league mates will hate you.

Godwin's ADP says you might get another shot at inviting that hatred next round as well.

Other Options

Deebo Samuel, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, Brian Robinson Jr.

Round 10

Top Target: Travis Etienne

If you get here balanced at RB vs. WR, then the board's likely to favor RB. That's primarily because WR value remains on the board longer. Feel free to target WR instead if you prefer.

You don't need to like Etienne for him to make sense in Round 10. The uncertain work split of Jacksonville's backfield under new HC Liam Coen is helping to keep all members available deeper into your draft.

Etienne watched Tank Bigsby overtake him as a rusher last year, but he remains the most accomplished member of the group and could certainly lead this year's distribution. Etienne particularly looks like the best receiving bet.

Next Best: Jaylen Warren

Speaking of the best receiving bet, Warren should be that in the Pittsburgh backfield even if rookie Kaleb Johnson claims the rushing lead.

Warren should also benefit at least slightly from Aaron Rodgers' arrival. He's more likely than last year's Pittsburgh duo to leverage an upside receiving RB. And Rodgers might be strong-minded (and entrenched) enough to turn some Arthur Smith run calls into pass plays at the line.

Warren's a solid-to-strong upside bet at this stage of any draft.

Other Options

Chris Godwin, Dalton Kincaid, Tank Bigsby, Jayden Reed

Round 11

Top Target: Dalton Kincaid

ADP says Kincaid will stick around for another couple of turns. But unless you don't care about landing him, you might as well go ahead and secure your starter.

The third-year Bill certainly doesn't qualify as a can't-miss player. But he did finish his second season as the No. 10 TE in target share, despite multiple injuries that cost him four games and limited him in others.

That's enough to make the former first-round pick an upside play late in your draft.

Next Best: Tyler Warren

Jayden Reed follows Kincaid in 3D Value at this turn initially. But if I mark Kincaid as already drafted, then Warren jumps over the wideout.

Message: It's time to get your starting tight end.

That doesn't mean you need to if you don't want, of course. But Warren also presents plenty of upside at this stage in your draft. It took the rookie a while to really get going at Penn State, but Warren closed his run with a huge 104-1,233-8 receiving line in 2024 -- plus 218 yards and 4 TDs on 26 carries.

Getting him this late makes the upside more attractive than his team's QB question is worrisome.

Other Options

Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, Jakobi Meyers, Ricky Pearsall

Round 12

Top Target: Jayden Reed

High fives all around, as we got our TE in Round 11 and still find upside WRs on the board in Round 12.

Feel free to try the inverse if you want Ricky Pearsall, of course. And running through multiple practice drafts in our Mock Draft Trainer will certainly help you prepare.

Reed doesn't need much selling this late. His upside lies in the possibility that Green Bay sends more targets his way or merely increases its passing volume. I'd especially bet on the latter. Last year's Packers went uncharacteristically run-heavy in the second half, following QB Jordan Love's groin injury.

Next Best: Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk's an intriguing bet in the double-digit rounds. If his repaired ACL just never allows him to be useful this year, then you can dump him for a player who does help.

If he gets back close to full strength, though, on a team now missing Deebo Samuel, you might have stolen a difference maker.

If you don't like him or Reed -- or they're both gone -- these next three guys look plenty attractive as well.

Other Options

Rashid Shaheed, Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs

Round 13

Top Target: Tank Bigsby

I'm not getting here with any needs. We covered QB and TE, and we've got five players apiece at RB and WR. So the Draft War Room favors the split-backfield RBs. But this is really a "get what you want" turn.

Next Best: Najee Harris

To be honest: I'm probably reaching over both of these RBs for Aiyuk, Shaheed, or Josh Downs if this scenario plays out in one of my drafts.

Whatever you do, make sure it's your team in the end.

Other Options

Jordan Mason, Justin Fields, Brandon Aiyuk, Rashid Shaheed, Josh Downs, J.K. Dobbins

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Close out your draft with an upside stash, a kicker, and a defense – in whichever order makes sense.

Our Trust Factor works differently with defenses than other positions, adding value to those with positive opening matchups while downgrading those with tough initial opponents.

You should plan to target matchups more than one season-long option at DST.

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 7 or 8

Round 1

Top Target: 

Current ADP says Jefferson is commonly getting to the eighth spot in these drafts. We’ll see if that’s the case come August, and you obviously can’t count on it happening in any individual draft. But he should be a pretty easy pick if/when he does.

Next Best: 

St. Brown currently sits one spot ahead of Jefferson by ADP for this format. You’ll likely be in good shape with either as your top WR.

Other Options

Jonathan Taylor

Round 2

Top Target: Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs scored as a top-7 RB across formats from Week 10 on last season. That was with David Montgomery healthy and also producing top-13 numbers.

Gibbs should avoid his early-season touch deficiencies in Year 2, with a chance he gains more beyond his late-season load.

Even if he doesn’t, the second-year runner has showed he can score as an RB1.

Next Best: Kyren Williams

Williams has a chance to remain in the mix for your Round 3 pick. The Rams’ Round 3 selection of RB Blake Corum plus Williams’ spring foot trouble has pushed his best ball ADP later.

Williams delivered the second-most points per game at the position last year, though. And we’re betting he’ll remain the clear lead back in a good offense – perhaps still close to a workhorse.

Williams led the league in opportunity share last season, drawing 23% of Rams’ carries plus targets over his 12 games. (Christian McCaffrey got 22.2% among 49ers.)

Other options

Garrett Wilson, Derrick Henry

If you’re pumped for a Wilson breakout season, then feel free to push him ahead of the RBs here and leave that position for the next couple of rounds.

Round 3

Top Target: De’Von Achane

Achane looks like Jahmyr Gibbs but with a smaller workload.

We’re betting he’ll grow beyond last year’s 10.3 touches per game. But Achane might not reach the 15.6 that Gibbs averaged.

Still, the Dolphin has already showed that his weekly spikes go as high as any RB’s. If you’re willing to plan around his likely volatility, then he’s an enticing Round 3 pick.

Next Best: Jalen Hurts, Joe Mixon

You might think that you should wait until late for your QB because there will be plenty to feed your whole 10-team league.

The second half of that is true. But you don’t necessarily need to adhere to the first part.

The smaller league also allows you to gain more of an advantage by grabbing a top-shelf producer at a one-starter position.

Hurts leads our QB rankings this year and carries plenty of value at this point in your draft.

Other Options

Drake London, Josh Jacobs, Nico Collins, Mike Evans

Round 4

Top Target: Deebo Samuel

If Samuel actually gets to Round 4, then he should be a pretty easy selection. He finished ninth among WRs in half-PPR points per game last year.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle, Cooper Kupp

If Samuel doesn’t this long and either of these options does, then either Waddle or Kupp would also make plenty of sense – especially if you’ve gotten here without a WR.

Other Options

Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker, Nico Collins, D.J. Moore

Round 5

Top Target: Cooper Kupp

Current ADP for the format says Kupp can be a Round 5 option. Don’t count on him lasting that long. But target him if he does.

How many other Round 5 picks have a No. 1 overall season at the position in their background?

Next Best: Kenneth Walker III

Walker could be headed for a three-down role. That would make him a terrific RB3 -- and maybe a strong RB2.

Other Options

Malik Nabers, Aaron Jones, Anthony Richardson, Tee Higgins

The argument for Richardson in this round is the same as the Hurts argument two rounds earlier. The Colts QB just has yet to show us that his rushing pushes his fantasy ceiling as high as that of Hurts or Josh Allen.

But it might.

Round 6

Top Target: Joe Burrow

If you get here without a QB, then Burrow makes plenty of sense.

His last two healthy seasons found him seventh (2021) and fourth (2022) among QB scorers.

Next Best: Malik Nabers, Tee Higgins

Already have a QB or don’t want one yet? WR looks good at this turn, no matter how many you already have.

Other Options

David Montgomery, Jonathan Brooks, James Conner, D’Andre Swift, Dak Prescott

Round 7

Top Target: James Conner

Conner looks most likely among the RBs listed above to bet to this round.

He has finished three straight seasons among the top 11 RBs in half-PPR points per game. Yet his injury history keeps him perennially underrated.

Next Best: Najee Harris

It's tough to get excited about Harris after he has ceded work to Jaylen Warren and watched his teammate operate more efficiently.

But new OC Arthur Smith figures to continue operating one of the league's most run-heavy offenses. That can only be good for Harris.

And Warren's hamstring injury in the second preseason game doesn't hurt ...

Other Options

David Njoku, Raheem Mostert, Tony Pollard, Javonte Williams

Round 8

Top Target: Jake Ferguson

Ferguson delivered top-10 fantasy numbers in his first starting turn. He’s a nice pick if you waited on TE to this point.

Next Best: Raheem Mostert, Javonte Williams

ADP says you might still be able to draft either of these guys next round – and perhaps even Round 10 for Williams. Just don’t count on that if you covet either player.

Each resides in an upside spot. Mostert gets downgraded by drafters for his age and crowded backfield, but he finished second among all RBs in fantasy points last year.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, Zamir White, Jaylen Warren, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk

Round 9

Top Target: Raheem Mostert

Upside Mode kicks on for this turn. That’s a clear mark in Mostert’s favor. He might have the widest range of possible outcomes for any RB in this area code.

Next Best: Javonte Williams

More on Williams in the next section … 

Other options: 

Tony Pollard, Jayden Reed, Zack Moss, Marquise Brown

Round 10

Top Target: Jonathon Brooks

I’ve gotten here with:

• one QB
• one TE
• four RBs
• and three WRs

You could lean WR over RB here, but the RB options are strong. Even Williams might still be sitting on the board, but I left him out at this turn to address others after he appeared in each of the previous two rounds.

Brooks figures to slide further in drafts after HC Dave Canales indicated we might not get much from the rookie over the first two weeks.

The upside on the rookie is tremendous, though.

Next Best: Tony Pollard

Pollard must contend with Tyjae Spears, but the veteran got $8 million a year on a three-year contract in free agency. So Tennessee clearly plans to use him plenty.

Getting just about any team's top RB this late in your draft presents nice value.

Other Options

Marquise Brown, Christian Watson, Xavier Worthy, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Not feeling RB at this turn? Or maybe just don’t need one? 

There are likely plenty of young, upside WRs available too.

Round 11

Top Target: Xavier Worthy

If you favor one of the other WRs listed, that’s fine. But it’s tough to argue against a first-round wideout working with Patrick Mahomes at this stage in any draft.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton

Sutton looks like he should easily remain the top wideout in Denver.

We'll see about the QB play. But landing a team target leader this late in your draft means upside. And that's what we're chasing.

Other Options

Jayden Daniels, Keon Coleman, Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams

If you didn’t draft a QB earlier, then Daniels has likely popped to the top of your board by now – perhaps as early as Round 8. He’s a high-upside play for 2024.

Round 12

Top Target: Dallas Goedert

For this exercise, I drafted Jake Ferguson back when he sat tops among the recommendations. You don’t need to draft a second TE at all in your 10-team league. 

But it’s also fine to do so and then roll with whichever guy starts delivering or platoon the two.

Next Best: Tyler Lockett, Jameson Williams

The reason you don’t need to secure that second TE is because more will always be available on – and/or emerge from – waivers. But that’ll also be true at WR.

Some wideouts will stand out much more than others from this range. We use Upside Mode to help highlight the best bets. We won’t nail them all, though.

Don’t be afraid to collect as many as you can reasonably fit to maximize your chances of hitting that guy.

Other Options

Mike Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel, Gabe Davis

Round 13

Top Target: Ty Chandler

The specific name matters less than the player type here. We're looking upside RB.

Chandler presents a nice case: 

• He flashed late last season.
• New backfield mate Aaron Jones has always shared work.
• Jones is verging on 30 (Dec. 2) and an injury risk.

Next Best: Jared Goff

Justin Herbert's foot injury has knocked him behind Goff in these draft rankings -- and certainly made Goff a comfier backup QB.

Like with Chandler, though, the player type matters more than the specific name here.

It's a good time for a backup QB -- though you certainly don't need one in a 10-team league.

Other Options

Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Close out your draft with an upside stash, a kicker, and a defense – in whichever order makes sense.

Our Trust Factor works differently with defenses than other positions, adding value to those with positive opening matchups while downgrading those with tough initial opponents.

You should plan to target matchups more than one season-long option at DST.

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 9 or 10

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor & Garrett Wilson

Given the options in this range, your best bet looks like leaving Round 2 with a RB and a WR.

Next Best: Saquon Barkley & Puka Nacua

Feel free to mix and match your favorites among these players.

I’d also recommend playing with the Mock Draft Trainer to see how starting with two WRs or two RBs works out for you. Better to get that experience before you’re on the clock and deciding between specific names.

Other options: 

Jahmyr Gibbs, A.J. Brown

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: De’Von Achane & Drake London

You’re in great shape if you find this pair at the 3-4 turn and leave Round 4 with a pair of upside players at both RB and WR.

In the current market, Achane has a better chance of staying on the board. I’ll be shocked if London gets to this range. His buzz skyrocketed as soon as Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins.

Next Best: James Cook, Josh Jacobs, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel

Even if London’s gone, though, there’s plenty of upside in Samuel – who sits one spot behind London in our half-PPR WR rankings – Evans and the three WRs listed below.

Other Options

Nico Collins, Cooper Kupp, Jaylen Waddle

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Targets: James Conner & Malik Nabers

I’ve gotten here with two RBs and two WRs rostered. If you started with one RB and three WRs, then you’re probably getting different rankings at this turn.

Next Best: David Montgomery & DeVonta Smith

Similarly attractive duo. Montgomery will share work with Jahmyr Gibbs, but he'll do so in a backfield that scored the third-most and most half-PPR points the past two seasons.

Smith gets a new OC in Kellen Moore, who should be good for the Eagles’ passing efficiency.

Other Options

Joe Burrow, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tank Dell

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Targets: James Conner & Jake Ferguson

If you passed on Conner last round and get another shot at him here, you’re drafting well.

He has ranked among the top 11 RBs in half-PPR points per game each of the past three seasons. You can find insurance to fill the weeks he misses with the next injury.

Ferguson looks like a high-floor TE option. He ranked second among Cowboys in his first full season as starter. And Dallas ranked eighth in pass attempts and first in scoring.

Next Best: David Njoku, Jordan Love, Jayden Daniels

If you’re in good shape at RB at WR through six rounds, then consider addressing both QB and TE at this turn.

Love dominated over the second half of last season. Daniels carries top-6 upside right away thanks to his rushing ability.

And even if either falters in 2024, you’ll be able to find a replacement in your 10-team league.

Other Options

Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Targets: Jayden Daniels & Raheem Mostert

Daniels pops as the strong top recommendation here, despite an ADP that says he might even come back at your next turn.

That’s because Upside Mode has turned on, factoring ceiling projections and breakout likelihood more heavily to help you target those potential difference makers in the later rounds.

Mostert also stands out for upside after finishing second among RBs in fantasy points in 2023.

Next Best: Javonte Williams & Jayden Reed

There’s plenty of upside to this duo as well.

Williams should be more efficient with another offseason of separation from his 2022 knee injury. We’ll watch to see if he retains the clear lead in the Denver backfield.

Reed led Green Bay in targets per game, claimed a significant rushing role, and racked up 10 total TDs as a second-round rookie.

If you can get him around the 9-10 turn, that mitigates the downside risk of his playing time staying inconsistent.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Marquise Brown, Christian Watson

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Targets: Xavier Worthy & Brock Bowers

The spotlight’s on young upside here. We’ve historically seen rookie WRs deliver value later in the regular season, and Worthy joins a team that got just that from Rashee Rice a year ago.

Of course, if he doesn’t find room to make a similar impact in 2024, then you can dump this Round 11 selection for help from the waiver wire.

Bowers could have landed in a better spot, but his talent’s worth betting on late in your draft – even if you already have a TE.

Next Best: Keon Coleman & Devin Singletary

Coleman got drafted a little later than Worthy but faces a less-crowded path to worthwhile target shares.

Singletary should be an easy pick if he stays on the board this late. He’s clearly set up to lead the Giants in touches this season. And you don’t have to be “good” to offer some value if you’re getting the ball enough.

Other Options

Courtland Sutton, Tyler Lockett, Dallas Goedert, Jameson Williams, Caleb Williams, Mike Williams, anyone else named Williams (no, not really)

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Targets: Jared Goff & Brian Thomas Jr.

Goff’s offense has ranked among the top 5 in scoring and yards each of the past two years.

He has famously become a startable fantasy asset in home games. This year finds six of eight road games taking place in domes or warm-weather cities. That should help.

Thomas might spend his rookie season drawing inconsistent target shares. But there’s also room for him to climb a just-OK WR depth chart that shed Calvin Ridley.

Next Best: Trevor Lawrence & Gabe Davis

Davis and Thomas figure to duke it out for top fantasy billing this season. At this stage of your draft, either makes sense -- and getting some shares of both seems like a good idea if you're drafting multiple teams.

Other Options

Jerry Jeudy, Curtis Samuel, Rashid Shaheed, Jakobi Meyers

Rounds 15 & 16

Top Targets: K + DST

We still do full-season projections for these positions, but that’s not how you should draft them.

In most formats, you’ll want to cycle through defenses and kickers during the season to take advantage of good matchups and avoid bad ones. Very few options at either position score consistently.

We’ve found a way to weight your draft rankings to favor those defenses with better early matchups. So you can trust that we’re factoring that into your draft rankings.

Kicker is a little different in that you can do well by riding a kicker in a top offense. But that’s also a position not enough fantasy players look to stream. Just don’t go too hard after any kicker, and use our weekly kicker rankings in season to help guide your lineup setting.

The Ultimate Strategy for Your Draft

No article can perfectly match your draft.

You'll see surprise picks. You'll find falling value. You'll face tough decisions.

But you can make all of that easier to navigate by setting up your Draft War Room ahead of time.

Learn all about it in this video ...

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