10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Waddle You Do If He Gets to You?

Get Your Team Set to Overpower Your League

What’s the best strategy for a 10-team, half-PPR draft? Let’s break that down …

Drafting in a 10-team league vs. 12 means more value in securing a top player at a certain spot. 

You gain more advantage from locking up the No. 1 QB or TE, for example, when there are fewer teams than you do when the league is larger.

There’s not quite as much emphasis here on those one-starter positions, though, as you’ll find in an eight-team setup.

Playing half-PPR decreases the impact of receiving volume vs. full-PPR formats. 

You’ll still tend to favor higher-volume pass-catchers, because more opportunities generally mean more production. But the format plays friendlier to efficient producers, guys who do a better job of turning targets into yards and TDs. It’s less kind to the WRs who load up on short-range receptions.

But it also lessens the heavy TD reliance that you find in non-PPR setups.

Your specific draft strategy will depend on the particulars of your draft.

That’s why we start this process with the industry’s best fantasy draft cheat sheet: the Draft War Room.

It syncs directly with your redraft league to import your scoring and lineup settings. Then it tracks the action -- in real time -- throughout your draft, constantly recalculating player values as you go to deliver updated pick recommendations at every turn.

For this article, I manually set up a Draft War Room for 10 teams, half-PPR scoring and these lineup settings:

• 1 QB
• 2 RBs
• 2 WRs
• 1 TE
• 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
• 1 K
• 1 DST
• 7 bench spots

Then I ran through a 16-round draft from each pick zone to lay out the best strategy from any position.

To find the fantasy football help appropriate to your draft position, see below …

 

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 1, 2, or 3

Round 1

Top Target: Ja'Marr Chase

You'll likely find Chase projected for fewer fantasy points than the two RBs listed below. But there's a larger drop from his projection to the WRs likely to greet your next turn than you'll find between the RBs.

That puts last year's league champ in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs atop the board here. And Chase's lead grows, of course, if you need to start three wideouts instead of two.

Next Best: Saquon Barkley

Barkley edges Bijan Robinson by a slim margin, slim enough that you can feel free to lean toward the Falcon if you prefer.

That's my personal lean, to be honest. I like the higher floor that comes with Robinson's much stronger receiving role (28 more targets, 27 more catches last year).

But either guy's clearly capable of leading the position in scoring.

Other options

Bijan Robinson

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Jonathan Taylor & Kyren Williams

Brian Thomas Jr. led this turn previously, but current ADP takes him out of range. That's OK, because you can instead go for a strong RB double-tap.

Taylor's ADP is down vs. the last time we ran this exercise, but his talent isn't. Even the worse version of him last year (with Anthony Richardson behind center) still scored as a low-end RB1. So the downside risk isn't scary. The upside, meanwhile, goes to the top of the position.

Williams' ADP has reflected some fear that he'd cede work to the RBs behind him on the depth chart. But the Rams extended him this summer at $11 million per year. That sure says to me that Williams will remain the feature back.

Next Best: Bucky Irving & Tyreek Hill

Irving faces the challenge of an OC switch, but new guy Josh Grizzard spent last season as the pass-game coordinator under then-OC Liam Coen. And he has already signaled that he liked where last year's backfield ended up.

"I would say how we ended last season was essentially where we would take off," he said in May.

Last year, of course, ended with Irving taking over the backfield and scoring like a RB1.

You could double up on RBs here as well, but I'll list a WR option. Your Draft War Room probably lists Tee Higgins ahead of Hill, but I wouldn't stack WR teammates this early in a draft. That basically requires you to start both every week, and in turn requires a dynamic offensive season in Cincinnati.

The Bengals are capable of that, of course. But the more you bet on outlier results, the more risk you're inviting.

Other Options

Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Lamar Jackson, Ladd McConkey

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Jalen Hurts & Kenneth Walker III

Hurts consistently goes fourth among the top 4 QBs despite four straight years of strong production. Last year looks like a downturn by the total fantasy points, but Hurts climbs into the top 5 in points per game if you remove the Week 16 contest he left in the first quarter.

Walker delivered strong efficiency amid multiple 2024 injuries, operating as Seattle's lead back whenever healthy. New OC Klint Kubiak sounds ready to continue that.

"We're gonna ask a lot out of him," Kubiak said after arriving.

Next Best: Alvin Kamara & Joe Burrow

If Hurts is gone, Burrow probably won't lead your Round 4 recommendations. But don't be surprised if he jumps to the top in Round 5.

You don't need to take your QB this early, but our projections do feature a gap between No. 5 Burrow and No. 6 Patrick Mahomes. So there's a potential advantage to drafting Burrow.

Kamara carries age-cliff risk, but New Orleans combatted that by making him the position's usage leader last year.

Other Options

Davante Adams, Chuba Hubbard, Mike Evans, James Conner, D.J. Moore

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Tetairoa McMillan & Jaylen Waddle

If you land all the "top targets" to this point, then you'll reach this turn with a Jalen Hurts, Ja'Marr Chase, and three strong RBs.

That would make this a nice spot to double up at WR, and you've got some attractive options for doing so.

McMillan landed as a runner-up to our Breakout Pick. He combines intriguing talent with immediate opportunity. And his modest ADP helps McMillan's chances of being the next high-impact rookie WR.

Waddle's 2024 usage marked a detour vs. his tremendous first three seasons. And I don't believe it's a coincidence that Miami's offense suffered.

The ultimate ceiling case for Waddle this year could even find him overtaking Tyreek Hill (now 31) as the target leader.

Next Best: Isiah Pacheco & George Pickens

Pacheco's a ceiling play, just two years removed from a top-15 fantasy finish. His modest ADP, though, also makes him relatively safe in a Chiefs offense that looks poised to rebound from two straight No. 15 rankings in points.

Pickens gets a tremendous situation upgrade in his move from Pittsburgh -- especially now that he'd likely trail DK Metcalf in targets -- to a pass-happy Dallas offense.

He'll have a hard time topping (or maybe even matching) a target share that ranked 15th among WRs last year. But Dak Prescott should help Pickens' efficiency and TD opportunities.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Mark Andrews, Calvin Ridley, Chris Olave, TreVeyon Henderson

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Tyrone Tracy & David Njoku

Tracy climbed our rankings after it became clear that he led rookie Cam Skattebo for the starting job. He makes for a nice upside bench RB at this stage.

You'll see other RBs with Tracy as this turn begins, but drafting that first RB just might send the upside TE to the top of your rankings.

If you're in a 16-round draft, the second pick here will also find your Draft War Room automatically switching to Upside Mode. That increases the emphasis on players' ceiling projections and ceiling likelihood so that we can spend the second half of drafts targeting the true potential difference makers.

Next Best: Jaylen Warren & Rome Odunze

Warren not only ran first among Steelers RBs in the preseason, rookie Kaleb Johnson never climbed higher than third.

That at least sets Warren up well to open the season and boosts his overall upside.

Odunze, meanwhile, makes for a nice upside bet this late in your draft. There's plenty of role uncertainty given:

• the new coaching staff
• Odunze heading into just his second year
• Keenan Allen being gone

Other Options

Jakobi Meyers, Deebo Samuel

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Emeka Egbuka & Jordan Mason

With all starting spots covered, we're focused on upside RBs and WRs in this range.

Egbuka gets a boost from Chris Godwin's lingering recovery. Godwin's expected to miss the first month of the regular season, which allows the highly touted rookie to grab a top-2 WR spot immediately.

Mason could prove frustrating for lineup decisions as long as Aaron Jones is healthy. But there' might still be room for Mason to factor into lineups. And a Jones injury could propel the new Viking to difference-making production.

Next Best: Jakobi Meyers & J.K. Dobbins

Meyers might want a trade, but that doesn't appear likely to happen. So we'll assume he continues quietly delivering value from this range of your draft.

Meyers has posted reliable WR3-level production for the past three years and carries upside into WR2 range.

Dobbins will split work with rookie RB RJ Harvey to some degree. That makes him a quality fantasy reserve with fill-in potential.

Other Options

Jauan Jennings, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Mooney, Rashid Shaheed

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Keon Coleman & Rashid Shaheed

We've gotten here with all starting spots covered and more reserves at RB than WR. So it's a good spot to stash a couple of upside wideouts.

Coleman posted modest numbers as a rookie, hindered in part by a midseason wrist injury. But he already looks like a strong end-zone target. And he both drew downfield targets (34.4% of his total targets) and delivered yards after the catch (7.1 per reception).

Shaheed sat 31st among WRs in half-PPR points per game before his season-ending knee injury last year. He's going much later than that now, while showing know lingering effect from the injury.

Next Best: Tank Bigsby & Marquise Brown

It's tough to know who to chase in the Jacksonville backfield, but that's helping to keep the price down on all of them. And some Jaguar is likely to emerge among this year's RB sleepers.

Brown carries some risk with the foot/ankle injury that's cost him a lot of camp practices. But this late stage of the draft is for betting on the upside case more than worrying about the issues.

If his injury lingers into the season, the Chiefs wideout will be easy to drop for an early-season waiver option. If he's healthy, though, Brown could stand to benefit whenever we get the Rashee Rice suspension.

Other Options

Dallas Goedert, Austin Ekeler, Jake Ferguson, Christian Kirk, Marvin Mims, Bhayshul Tuten, Cedric Tillman

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Time to secure your season-opening kicker and team defense. Your DWR rankings will obviously still help with both.

Our Trust Factor ratings add a layer at DST by favoring positive early-season matchups and devaluing defenses with bad initial matchups.

That’s how you should play the position all season rather than trying to find one every-week starter (in most formats).

 

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 4, 5, or 6

Round 1

Top Target: CeeDee Lamb

If your draft sees Ja'Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, and Bijan Robinson occupy the first three slots, then you'll likely see Lamb and Jefferson get here separated by less than 1 point in 3D Value. So feel free to pick your favorite between them.

I'll take Lamb with the QB he has always known and in what's likely to rank among the league's pass-friendliest offenses.

New HC Brian Schottenheimer has leaned that way through a long OC career, and Dallas' offseason moves -- George Pickens trade, light backfield investment -- point to featuring the pass.

Next Best: Justin Jefferson

Of course, there ain't nothin' wrong with Jefferson either. Sure, J.J. McCarthy's a relative unknown after missing all of his rookie season. But Sam Darnold stunk before last year.  And the year before found Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Jaren Hall combining for nine starts.

Downgrading Jefferson for his unknown QB -- who did get drafted 10th overall, by the way -- would seem like a mistake.

Other Options

Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Puka Nacua

Round 2

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor

ADPs have changed since last time we ran this exercise and say you should no longer count on WRs such as Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. getting to you. They can certainly be in the pick mix if they do. Just don't count on it.

Taylor's upside will depend on who plays QB more for this year's Colts. He ranged from low-end RB1 when Anthony Richardson was on the field last year to No. 1 overall with Joe Flacco behind center.

We should at least get a better version of Richardson (if he plays) this year. The best case for Taylor would be Daniel Jones leading, though.

Next Best: Josh Jacobs

Jacobs probably won't get quite as large a workload as last year, with MarShawn Lloyd back from a spate of injuries. And he's likely to find less luck on the TD front.

But the Green Bay offense has never been pass-heavy over a full season under Matt LaFleur, and it has been friendly to RB scoring.

Jacobs should at least control red-zone opportunities and deliver low-RB1 returns as long as he stays healthy.

Other Options

A.J. Brown, Drake London

Round 3

Top Target: Kyren Williams

If you worried about Williams' role shrinking earlier this summer, his $11 million-a-year extension should assuage that concern. Only he and Saquon Barkley have ranked among the top four in opportunity share each of the past two years.

Next Best: Chase Brown

Brown showed us his upside when pressed into the lead role over the second half of last season. From Week 6 on, Brown ranked eighth among RBs in half-PPR points per game -- and second in expected points per game.

That means his usage could have supported even more fantasy production. And the Bengals did nothing this offseason to signal they want to substantially shrink his role. The additions:

• Samaje Perine (turns 30 on Sept. 16)
• sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks

Other Options

Drake London, Alvin Kamara

Round 4

Top Target: Jalen Hurts

Hurts' ADP actually sits lower than it did when I ran through this exercise previously. So you have a pretty good shot at finding him in Round 4. And grabbing Hurts makes plenty of sense.

Our projections feature a gap between him and No. 5 Joe Burrow, and then another between Burrow and No. 6 Patrick Mahomes. So there's potential for a positional advantage here.

And the smaller league size enhances the value of that pursuit at a one-starter position. Why? Because it's easier for the smaller league to cover the multi-starter spots with quality options.

Next Best: Kenneth Walker III

Walker delivered strong efficiency amid multiple 2024 injuries, operating as Seattle's lead back whenever healthy. New OC Klint Kubiak sounds ready to continue that.

"We're gonna ask a lot out of him," Kubiak said after arriving.

Other Options

Omarion Hampton, Joe Burrow, Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard

Round 5

Top Target: James Conner

Conner finished 15th among RBs in half-PPR points per game last season, even without removing the two games he left early from that calculation. His previous three Arizona seasons found the veteran:

• sixth
• 10th
• 11th

Next Best: Chuba Hubbard

I'm concerned that Hubbard will lose some receiving work to his new backfield mates. But Carolina just extended him at a little more than $8 million per year in November. So he'll clearly continue leading the backfield overall.

Other Options

DK Metcalf, David Montgomery, D.J. Moore

Round 6

Top Target: Tetairoa McMillan

McMillan scored a spot in our fantasy football breakouts article. He combines three attractive qualities:

• talent
• opportunity
• modest ADP

Carolina drafted him eighth overall to an offense in dire need of a lead receiver. And the second-half surge from Bryce Young last season says the QB play will be there.

Next Best: Xavier Worthy

Worthy's role and production grew over the second half of last season. And if he and Patrick Mahomes can connect any better on the deep ball -- they struggled with that faced last year -- then the second-year wideout sports intriguing upside.

A Rashee Rice suspension that still sounds like it could be lengthy would only help Worthy's opportunities.

Other Options

Jameson Williams, Jaylen Waddle, George Pickens

Round 7

Top Target: Jaylen Waddle

Get here with a QB, three RBs, and two WRs, and you're likely staring at a WR-led board. And if you find Waddle here after not taking him last turn, feel free to celebrate.

Your league mates will think you're goofy for celebrating a dude who finished 60th in half-PPR points per game last season. But you'll know that was a dramatic outlier vs. his previous three seasons.

Waddle's 7.8 half-PPR points per game in 2024 followed averages of:

• 11.6
• 13.2
• 12.2

I'll happily bet on Miami fixing the usage for a 26-year-old former first-round pick, who set the rookie reception record in 2021 and then led the league in yards per catch (18.1) as a sophomore).

Next Best: Calvin Ridley

Have you heard anything about a Titans receiver not named Ridley?

The veteran should find a clear path to strong target share -- quite possibly the strongest of his career. We'll see whether he and Cam Ward can convert that into weekly-starter production.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, D'Andre Swift, Ricky Pearsall, Mark Andrews, Chris Olave

Round 8

Top Target: Aaron Jones

Jones will cede some work to Jordan Mason. But he should remain the clear receiving leader at the very least. And Jones has done his best work in time-share backfields. He should make up for volume loss with improved efficiency.

Next Best: Tyrone Tracy

Tracy's expected to open the season as the Giants' clear backfield leader. We'll see whether he can keep that lead and just how much work Cam Skattebo eats into. But this is an upside athlete who enjoyed a breakout rookie campaign.

Other Options

Ricky Pearsall, Mark Andrews, Deebo Samuel, Rome Odunze, Jakobi Meyers

Round 9

Top Target: David Njoku

We're in Upside Mode now, baby. That's when your Draft War Room accentuates the impact of player ceiling projections and ceiling likelihood to focus even more on upside.

We've gotten here with a QB, four RBs, and three WRs. So a TE makes sense.

Njoku ranked sixth among qualifying TEs in targets per route last season. And he has produced across QB changes over the past couple of years.

Next Best: Deebo Samuel

Samuel is the top WR actually practicing for Washington right now. That makes him well worth a pick at this level.

OC Kliff Kingsbury has proved plenty willing to design short-range targets and rushing attempts for WRs.

Other Options

Khalil Shakir, Travis Etienne, Jaylen Warren, Stefon Diggs

Round 10

Top Target: Emeka Egbuka

Egbuka looks like a top-2 pass-catcher for the Bucs to open the season. WR Chris Godwin's expected to miss the first month. TE Cade Otton's also dealing with injury.

Egbuka has a chance to show his new team enough that they'll want to keep him on the field even when everyone's healthy.

Next Best: Matthew Golden

Golden has reportedly enjoyed a strong first summer with the team. And his upside grows with the recent revelation that Jayden Reed's playing through a Jones fracture in his left foot.

The biggest question with Golden here is whether he stays on the board until this turn.

Other Options

Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins

Round 11

Top Target: Jordan Mason

HC Kevin O'Connell has indicated he's planning a split backfield, and he has even talked up Mason's receiving ability. I'm still betting that Mason will make for a frustrating start in fantasy as long as Aaron Jones is healthy. But the upside's undeniable, especially from the double-digit rounds of your draft.

Next Best: J.K. Dobbins

HC Sean Payton might be excited about rookie R.J. Harvey. But Dobbins' superior pass protection and overall experience will keep him involved with the first-team offense.

We'll see whether that includes enough work to make him a standalone option, or if we're simply targeting a high-level handcuff here.

Other Options

Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Tank Bigsby, Brandon Aiyuk

Round 12

Top Target: Keon Coleman

Coleman has ranked among our Sleepers all year and has apparently "dominated" in training camp. As long as he doesn't garner enough buzz to vault his draft price, he'll be an attractive bench target.

Next Best: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed sat 31st among WRs in half-PPR points per game before his season-ending knee injury last year. He's going much later than that now, while showing know lingering effect from the injury.

Other Options

Dalton Kincaid, J.K. Dobbins, Tank Bigsby, Marquise Brown, Jayden Higgins

Round 13

Top Target: Rashid Shaheed

Did you take Coleman ahead of Shaheed last time? Here's your shot to grab the "next best." And the quiet QB battle in New Orleans won't boost anyone's buzz and drive that ADP up.

Next Best: Dallas Goedert

If you pushed TE way orr, you can still find potentially startable options available even this late.

Goedert has finished fifth, 12th, and 10th in half-PPR points per game the past three seasons.

Other Options

Marquise Brown, Austin Ekeler, Jake Ferguson, Christian Kirk

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Close out your draft with an upside stash, a kicker, and a defense – in whichever order makes sense.

Our Trust Factor works differently with defenses than other positions, adding value to those with positive opening matchups while downgrading those with tough initial opponents.

You should plan to target matchups more than one season-long option at DST.

 

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 7 or 8

Round 1

Top Target: Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey make you uncomfortable here? Makes sense. He appeared in just four games last year and never got back to full 2023 usage.

But McCaffrey's back, and we'll certainly be watching his health throughout the summer. Any calf relapse (or other issue), and he'll fall down the rankings.

The healthy version? That guy scored 3.3 more half-PPR points per game than any other RB in 2023, and 6.7 more than the No. 3 RB.

Next Best: Derrick Henry

Henry has switched spots with Puka Nacua here since the last time we did this. That marks a slight dip in our projection for Nacua because of Matthew Stafford's iffy back issue.

Henry will have trouble matching his career-high 5.9 yards per carry from last season. But the TD rate and workload weren't out of line with previous seasons. And he has proved abnormally durable over six years as a workhorse.

Other Options

Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor

Round 2

Top Target: Jonathan Taylor

Even with McCaffrey as the first pick, Taylor leads my recommendations in Round 2. That duo would give you a terrific start to a lineup that only needs to find two starting WRs.

Need to start three? Then the next guy (or any higher-ranked WR who gets here instead) tops Taylor in 3D Value points.

Next Best: Brian Thomas Jr.

If you'd rather get a WR, then the Jacksonville No. 1 certainly wouldn't be a bad Round 2 addition. Thomas finished last year 14th in total half-PPR points, but he saw uneven target counts until the final third of the season.

Other options

De'Von Achane, A.J. Brown, Drake London

Round 3

Top Target: Tee Higgins

Amid the injuries -- again -- Higgins ranked fourth among WRs in half-PPR points per game last season. That makes three top-14 finishes in QB Joe Burrow's three healthy seasons.

As long as you're OK with managing Higgins' injury risk, you're getting at least a fringe WR1 here.

Next Best: Jayden Daniels

Daniels narrowly edges Tyreek Hill for this spot ... narrowly enough that you can favor the WR if you'd rather wait on a QB.

But it's tough to argue against Daniels at cost. He finished sixth among QBs in fantasy points per game last year despite leaving a pair of contests early. Remove those weeks, and we're talkin' fourth in scoring average: just ahead of Josh Allen, and 0.2 points per game behind No. 2 Joe Burrow.

Other Options

Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Jalen Hurts, Ladd McConkey

Round 4

Top Target: Jalen Hurts

If we get here with two RBs and Tee Higgins (or another WR), and the top four QBs are gone, then the Draft War Room will favor QB

Joe Burrow occupied this spot last time we ran this, but drafters have apparently gotten stupider since then and are letting Hurts stay on the board longer.

If your league mates do that, make them pay by grabbing this perennial top-5 fantasy QB. And don't be fooled by the total numbers. That's where Hurts ranked in scoring average over his full outings last year.

Next Best: Kenneth Walker III

Hurts holds a big lead over Walker in 3D Value points here. But there's nothing wrong with grabbing Seattle's lead back at this spot.

Walker ranked 14th in half-PPR points per game last season, and new OC Klint Kubiak has talked up both Walker and the plan to run more ever since arriving.

Other Options

Omarion Hampton, Joe Burrow, George Kittle

Round 5

Top Target: James Conner

These two RBs sit tied in 3D Value at this turn (though Conner might lead by some fractional points).

Conner finished 15th among RBs in half-PPR points per game last season, even without removing the two games he left early from that calculation. His previous three Arizona seasons found the veteran:

• sixth
• 10th
• 11th

Fantasy drafters insist on making him one of the most underrated players perennially.

Next Best: David Montgomery

Before injuring a knee in Week 15 last year, Montgomery actually led Jahmyr Gibbs in expected half-PPR points per game. He ranked 15th among all RBs in that category through Week 14.

We'll see whether new OC John Morton alters the usage. But HC Dan Campbell remains a fan. Montgomery's not a sure thing to pay off but still a decent bet in this range.

Other Options

D.K. Metcalf, D.J. Moore

Round 6

Top Target: Tetairoa McMillan

We like McMillan as a top Breakout candidate this year. He combines the talent that got him drafted eighth overall with opportunity (Xavier Legette led with just 84 targets last year) and this modest price tag.

Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Malik Nabers showed the upside last year in betting on a rookie with those characteristics.

Next Best: Xavier Worthy

Worthy's role and production grew over the second half of last season. And if he and Patrick Mahomes can connect any better on the deep ball -- they struggled with that faced last year -- then the second-year wideout sports intriguing upside.

A Rashee Rice suspension that still sounds like it could be lengthy would only help Worthy's opportunities.

Other Options

Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Jameson Williams, George Pickens

Round 7

Top Target: Jaylen Waddle

Waddle's 7.8 half-PPR points per game in 2024 followed averages of:

• 11.6
• 13.2
• 12.2

I'll happily bet on Miami fixing the usage for a 26-year-old former first-round pick, who set the rookie reception record in 2021 and then led the league in yards per catch (18.1) as a sophomore).

Next Best: Calvin Ridley

Ridley ranked just 33rd in target share among WRs last year. But that climbed to 20th from Week 7 on, after Tennessee traded DeAndre Hopkins.

Upgrading to Cam Ward at QB should help even further. And this year's crew of (weak) target challengers leave room for even more targets to find Ridley.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, D'Andre Swift, Travis Kelce, Ricky Pearsall

Round 8

Top Target: Calvin Ridley

This looked like a clear RB turn earlier in draft season, but changes at RB and WR have shifted the value.

Next Best: Ricky Pearsall

Pearsall has been a target for us throughout draft season, ranking among our top Breakout candidates. His ADP has climbed, though. You'll probably have to grab him in the single-digit rounds if you want him.

Other Options

Mark Andrews, Deebo Samuel

Round 9

Top Target: David Njoku

We're officially in Upside Mode now. Can you feel the buzz?

That means the 3D Values increase the impact of player ceiling projections as well as their projected likelihood of reaching that ceiling. You can toggle Upside Mode off if you don't want that extra weight on ceiling, but we're especially targeting upside with picks throughout the second half of your draft.

Njoku led the Browns in receptions per game each of the past two years, beating No. 2 Jerry Jeudy by 0.5 last year. The last guy to beat him (Amari Cooper) doesn't play for the Browns anymore.

That gives Njoku a chance to deliver you big value if you waited on TE.

Next Best: Emeka Egbuka

Egbuka looks like a top-2 pass-catcher for the Bucs to open the season. WR Chris Godwin's expected to miss the first month. TE Cade Otton's also dealing with injury.

Egbuka has a chance to show his new team enough that they'll want to keep him on the field even when everyone's healthy.

Other Options

Travis Etienne, Jordan Mason

Round 10

Top Target: Matthew Golden

Golden has reportedly enjoyed a strong first summer with the team. And his upside grows with the recent revelation that Jayden Reed's playing through a Jones fracture in his left foot.

The biggest question with Golden here is whether he stays on the board until this turn.

Next Best: Jauan Jennings

Jennings' lingering calf injury presents risk, but this is late enough to target the upside over that risk.

Other Options

Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins

 

Round 11

Top Target: Jordan Mason

HC Kevin O'Connell has indicated he's planning a split backfield, and he has even talked up Mason's receiving ability. I'm still betting that Mason will make for a frustrating start in fantasy as long as Aaron Jones is healthy. But the upside's undeniable, especially at this stage of your draft.

Next Best: J.K. Dobbins

Dobbins might not get enough of the work to be startable on a weekly basis. But he at least holds handcuff upside as the No. 2 to a rookie. And there's at least the chance that Harvey proves unready to take a true lead share.

Other Options

Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Mooney

Round 12

Top Target: Keon Coleman

Coleman posted modest numbers as a rookie, hindered in part by a midseason wrist injury. But he already looks like a strong end-zone target. And he both drew downfield targets (34.4% of his total targets) and delivered yards after the catch (7.1 per reception).

Next Best: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed sat 31st among WRs in half-PPR points per game before his season-ending knee injury last year. He's going much later than that now, while showing know lingering effect from the injury.

Other Options

Michael Pittman Jr., Darnell Mooney, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz

Round 13

Top Target: Dallas Goedert

Goedert leads my recommendations here even with Njoku already on my roster. I'd probably pass on drafting a second TE for a league this size, but the value's certainly fine.

Goedert has been a top-12 scoring TE when healthy each of the past three years.

Next Best: Marquise Brown

Brown's heading toward the season with a health issue once again. Any downturn -- or lack of resolution -- might make him worth passing over as we get closer to the season. But if Brown's back or even nearing a return, he certainly presents upside this late.

The chance that Rashee Rice draws a lengthy suspension only adds upside to other Chiefs pass catchers.

Other Options

Justin Fields, Austin Ekeler, Christian Kirk,

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Close out your draft with an upside stash, a kicker, and a defense – in whichever order makes sense.

Our Trust Factor works differently with defenses than other positions, adding value to those with positive opening matchups while downgrading those with tough initial opponents.

You should plan to target matchups more than one season-long option at DST.

 

10-Team Half-PPR Draft Strategy: Pick 9 or 10

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Target: Christian McCaffrey & Jonathan Taylor

If your draft aligns with ADP, then you'll find three of our top 7 WRs for the format still available ... but your Draft War Room likely favoring this RB-RB start.

Why? The DWR's saying you'll find a bigger drop-off in RB value next turn (and beyond, to some degree) than you will at WR. So you can afford to pass on the top available wideouts to lock down a potentially killer duo of TD scorers.

Of course, if you need to start three WRs, then the wideouts gain value and should beat out the second RB in your recommendations.

Next Best: Ashton Jeanty & Nico Collins 

The Raiders' rookie RB appears headed for a heavy workload, with a weak depth chart behind him. And Chip Kelly offenses have topped the league in play volume when he's been in the league.

Collins was scoring as the top fantasy WR in the league before his hamstring injury last year. That's his ceiling.

Other options: 

Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., De'Von Achane

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: Tee Higgins & Jayden Daniels

If you opened with a pair of RBs, then grabbing a WR and a QB makes plenty of sense.

Higgins ranked fourth among WRs in half-PPR points per game last season and 14th in 2022, the last time that he had a healthy Joe Burrow.

Daniels finished sixth among QBs in fantasy points per game last year despite leaving a pair of contests early. Remove those weeks, and we're talking fourth in scoring average: just ahead of Josh Allen, and 0.2 points per game behind No. 2 Joe Burrow.

Next Best: Tyreek Hill & Jalen Hurts

Hill has finally returned from his oblique injury and is expected to be ready for the opener.

He carries some risk in his age-31 campaign and coming off a disappointing 2024. But his ADP has also fallen 2+ rounds vs. last year.

Hurts sits closer to the top 3 QBs in our rankings than in ADP. He has stood out as the best value among that group by our ADP Market Index throughout draft season.

Other Options

James Cook, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, Joe Burrow, Kenneth Walker III

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Targets: James Conner & Tetairoa McMillan

Here's how Conner has ranked in half-PPR points per game for his four Arizona seasons:

• sixth
• 10th
• 11th
• 15th

And last year's rank doesn't even correct for the two games he left early. He's a nice stash as your third RB and potential weekly flex play.

You could opt for a pair of WRs at this turn instead, especially if you started with McCaffrey and Taylor at RB. But I think you'll continue to find attractive WR options over the next few turns.

McMillan landed among our Breakout picks for 2025. He combines high-level talent with intriguing opportunity in Carolina.

Next Best: David Montgomery & Xavier Worthy

Montgomery carries some risk of ceding further worth to Jahmyr Gibbs, especially if the Lions play from behind (or at least close) more often this season.

But he actually led Gibbs in work last season before a Week 15 ankle injury. So Monty also presents plenty of value.

Worthy makes plenty of sense as your second selection here. The former first-round pick comes off a rookie season that found his targets and production pick up over the second half. He gains upside with Rashee Rice's looming suspension.

Other Options

DeVonta Smith, Tetairoa McMillan, Zay Flowers, Patrick Mahomes

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Targets: Ricky Pearsall & Tony Pollard

We get here with three RBs and two WRs (plus a QB), so another split between WR and RB makes sense.

The receivers lead the recommendations this time, since we're sporting less at that position. Pearsall has climbed in ADP, but he sports enough upside to be worth chasing.

Pollard gained upside with Tyjae Spears' August high-ankle sprain. He'll get at least four games without that potential touch challenge.

Next Best: Chris Olave & Aaron Jones

Olave is one of just five WRs who averaged 2.05 yards per route or more on 40+ targets each of the past three years. The other four guys:

• Justin Jefferson
• A.J. Brown
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• CeeDee Lamb

Jones presents some risk, as he's expected to lose some work to Jordan Mason. But Jones shouldn't have handled as many touches as he did last year. He could make up for the volume loss with improved efficiency.

Other Options

Travis Kelce, Jerry Jeudy, Tyrone Tracy

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Targets: David Njoku & Stefon Diggs

Round 9 kicks us into Upside Mode. That means the value of each player's ceiling projection and his ceiling likelihood has been elevated in the algorithm. Why? Because the deeper we get into the draft, the more we should be focused on upside.

Njoku stands out as an especially strong starting option this far into your draft. He finished sixth, seventh, and eighth in half-PPR points per game the past three seasons. And Cleveland doesn't sport many proven targets for a shaky QB crew.

Diggs' upside, meanwhile, lies primarily in the chance that he returns to his target-hog past. The Patriots certainly paid him to take a big role, and they lack other proven high-level pass catchers.

Next Best: Jakobi Meyers & Jordan Mason

If you lead away from a TE here, then you could either double up on WR or split between WR and RB.

Your Draft War Room will likely favor RB if you draft a WR at your Round 9 turn. And this is late enough to take a shot on Mason.

The upside's pretty obvious: He ran efficiently and productively when pressed into starting duty last year, and then the Vikings invested in targeting him (trade plus contract extension) during the offseason.

The question will be whether Mason can draw enough weekly work to make sense for your lineup when Aaron Jones is healthy.

Meyers has delivered reliable WR3-level production over the past three years and presents upside into WR2 range. No need to worry about his trade request at this point in your draft.

Other Options

Dalton Kincaid, Travis Etienne, Jauan Jennings

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Targets: J.K. Dobbins & Keon Coleman

We've got all the starter positions covered, besides kicker and defense. So get some more upside at RB/WR.

Dobbins isn't likely to crack your starting lineup in a 10-team league while rookie R.J. Harvey's healthy, but he might get enough work to do so. And he sports the dual upside paths of Harvey getting hurt or simply not working out.

We've ranked Coleman among our favorite Sleepers all offseason. And it sounds like he's having a terrific summer.

If you're picking ninth (rather than 10th), pay attention to the player ADPs and the roster of the team drafting behind you to see which guy you should target first.

Next Best: Darnell Mooney & Tank Bigsby

The Jacksonville backfield lacks clarity, but that gives upside to all the contenders by pushing their ADPs later.

Bigsby outperformed Travis Etienne on the ground last year and has enjoyed buzzy stretches since the start of camp.

Mooney has finally returned to practice following his early-August shoulder injury. That gives him plenty of time to deliver regular-season upside, as he did last season.

Other Options

Rashid Shaheed, Marquise Brown, Christian Kirk

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Targets: Dallas Goedert & Marquise Brown

You don't need to draft a backup at either TE or QB for your 10-team roster. But this is a fine turn to grab a No. 2 at either spot -- or both if you really want.

Goedert has consistently scored among the top 12 TEs in half-PPR points per game. The longer you wait to draft your first, the more a second option at the one-starter position makes sense. You likely won't need to cling to that second TE throughout the year, though, if either's working for you as a weekly starter.

Brown carries injury risk for the second straight summer. But if he's back healthy by the time you draft, then he also sports plenty of upside -- especially with Rashee Rice likely headed for a suspension.

Next Best: Drake Maye & Christian Kirk

Not interested in a backup TE? Maybe an upside QB2 fits better.

Maye delivered fringe QB1-level scoring as a rookie primarily on the strength of his rushing. New England got him some help this offseason by throwing money at Stefon Diggs and drafting RB TreVeyon Henderson early in Round 2.

Kirk's not the exciting type of upside play, but there's room for him to grab consistently strong target shares in a rebuilt WR corps. That could prove especially true early in the season, if Houston elects to let rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel develop.

Other Options

Trevor Lawrence, Austin Ekeler, J.J. McCarthy, Keenan Allen, Marvin Mims, Luther Burden, Cedric Tillman, Romeo Doubs

Rounds 15 & 16

Top Targets: K + DST

We still do full-season projections for these positions, but that’s not how you should draft them.

In most formats, you’ll want to cycle through defenses and kickers during the season to take advantage of good matchups and avoid bad ones. Very few options at either position score consistently.

We’ve found a way to weight your draft rankings to favor those defenses with better early matchups. So you can trust that we’re factoring that into your draft rankings.

Kicker is a little different in that you can do well by riding a kicker in a top offense. But that’s also a position not enough fantasy players look to stream. Just don’t go too hard after any kicker, and use our weekly kicker rankings in season to help guide your lineup setting.

 

The Ultimate Strategy for Your Draft

No article can perfectly match your draft.

You'll see surprise picks. You'll find falling value. You'll face tough decisions.

But you can make all of that easier to navigate by setting up your Draft War Room ahead of time.

Learn all about it in this video ...