What If Jaxon Smith-Njigba Dominates Targets ... and Still Lets You Down?

 

Seattle Seahawks 2025 Overview

Schedule

 

Wins

 

Play Calling

Key Additions

• QB Sam Darnold
• WR Cooper Kupp
• OL Grey Zabel
• TE Elijah Arroyo
• WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• QB Jalen Milroe
• WR Tory Horton

Key Departures

• QB Geno Smith
• WR DK Metcalf
• WR Tyler Lockett

Notable Coaching Changes

• OC Ryan Grubb out; Klint Kubiak in

Sam Darnold

Bottom Line: Don't Bet on 2024 Repeat

Darnold’s set for regression after exiting an ideal environment in Minnesota. View the first-year Seahawk as a low-end QB2.

2024 Summary

Welcome to QB1 Territory

Darnold was among the surprise performers of 2024, posting career highs in passing yards (4,319) and TDs (35). Both marks ranked fourth among QBs.

As expected, the former Round 1 pick didn’t offer much on the ground. He tallied 212 yards and 1 score on 67 attempts.

Darnold racked up 10 top-12 fantasy finishes, peaking at QB4. Overall, he finished the season at QB8 in fantasy points per game.

Darnold Let it Rip in 2024

Volume certainly helped. Darnold’s 545 pass attempts ranked 8th among QBs — and his pace increased after a conservative start (24 to 28 attempts in each of his first four games).

He wasn’t just slinging short stuff, either. Darnold finished:

• 15th in deep ball rate (12.8%)
• 13th in play-action dropback rate (28.1%)

Efficiency Backed the Volume Expansion

Among 32 QBs with 300+ dropbacks, Darnold ranked:

• seventh in yards per attempt
• seventh in PFF’s Big Time Throw Rate
• 11th in PFF passing grade
• 16th in adjusted completion rate

Darnold tied for 10th in fantasy points per dropback, just behind Joe Burrow (0.53 vs. 0.52).

Right Place, Right Time, Right Coach

Darnold could have ridden the bench all season after the Vikings drafted QB J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick. 

But an August meniscus injury ended the rookie’s season, paving the way for Darnold to thrive under offensive-minded HC Kevin O’Connell.

Of course, Darnold benefited from throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. T.J. Hockenson returned from an ACL tear in Week 9.

The Vikings ranked 16th in pass rate but 3rd in pass rate over expected.

No Injuries to Worry About

Darnold overcame knee, hand, and foot injuries to play all 17 games.

His last notable injury was a high-ankle sprain in September 2022.

2025 Expectations

Seattle Hands Darnold the Offense

Darnold signed a three-year deal to replace Geno Smith in Seattle.

In April, the Seahawks spent a Round 3 pick on Alabama QB Jalen Milroe. He’s a developmental prospect and might not even start if Darnold goes down.

(Milroe must beat out Drew Lock for the backup spot.)

Seahawks Present Big Downgrade in Pass Catchers

Darnold’s pass catchers look thin.

Seattle traded D.K. Metcalf and let Tyler Lockett walk in free agency. Together, they leave behind 178 targets. 

Cooper Kupp arrived to fill the vacancy, but at 32, he’s very likely a downgrade. Plus, his health will command attention. Kupp’s played nine, 12, and 12 games over the past three seasons.

That’ll put extra pressure on 2024 breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN racked up 100-1,130-6 as a sure-handed slot.

TE looks intriguing with an athletic pairing of Noah Fant and rookie Elijah Arroyo. We’ve likely seen Fant at his best, though, and it’s not difference-making. Arroyo, 22, is a 2025 wild card after only one solid season of college production.

Up front, Darnold watched the Seahawks invest a Round 1 pick on OG Grey Zabel. It's a positive step, but this unit still has a lot to prove. They exited last season 21st in ESPN's pass block win rate; 26th in PFF pass blocking grade.

They slot 28th in our offensive line rankings.

Darnold Chooses Familiar Coach; Will It Help?

Darnold will work under new Seahawks OC Klink Kubiak. The pair worked together for one season in San Francisco (2023) when Kubiak held the title of pass game coordinator.

Darnold said that Kubiak influenced his decision to sign with Seattle, noting that they’ve implemented some “familiar things” from the 49ers.

Kubiak brings two years of experience as an OC and play-caller. 

His 2021 Vikings ranked: 

• 12th in yards
• 14th in points
• 16th in rush attempts
• 11th in pass attempts

His 2024 Saints finished:

• 21st in yards
• 24th in points
• 21st in rush attempts
• 16th in pass attempts

Notably, his units ranked eighth (2021) and fourth (2024) in pace. 

In 2021 -- with Kirk Cousins at QB -- the Vikings ranked 21st in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

Last year, in a much less stable situation, New Orleans finished 19th in pass rate; 25th in pass rate over expected.

Expect a balanced offensive approach with the Seahawks.

Kenneth Walker III

Bottom Line: RB2 Target Carries RB1 Upside

Walker’s talent and projected role suggests a RB1 ceiling. But a new coaching staff and personnel turnover make the contract-year back a RB2 target in drafts.

2024 Summary

Walker Flashed New Skill Set in 2024

Walker scattered 153 carries, 573 yards, and 7 TDs across 11 games. He broke out as a pass catcher with 46 catches, 299 yards, and 1 score.

That production turned into four RB1 fantasy finishes, five as a RB2. His worst output (RB34) came in a blowout loss to Buffalo.

Overall, he finished RB12 in PPR points per game; RB4 in expected PPG.

Carry Share Stayed High, Target Share Took Off

Walker tallied a solid 68% carry share, peaking with an 81% share in Week 9. He was the clear lead back for first-year OC Ryan Grubb.

No surprise there. But as a pass catcher? That’s where you might have been thrown off.

Walker averaged 4.8 targets per game after notching 2.4 from 2022-2023. He ranked fifth on the team in targets, despite six missed games. And he finished only 3 catches shy of tying Tyler Lockett for third on the team.

Injuries Didn’t Stop Walker From Balling Out

Think injuries affected his efficiency? Think again.

Among 31 RBs with 150+ attempts, Walker ranked:

• second in PFF elusive rating
• fourth in PFF rushing grade
• 15th in yards after contact per attempt
• 16th in success rate

Now, Walker ranked 21st in PFF’s Breakaway Percentage, a metric designed to measure a RB’s explosive run output. Perhaps the early-season oblique injury played a role there.

Regardless, there are no obvious red flags to point out.

Scheme, O-Line Didn't Help

Walker ran behind one of the league’s shakiest run-blocking O-lines. Seattle ranked 28th in ESPN’s run block win rate; 24th in PFF’s run blocking grades.

Walker wasn’t boosted by a run-happy scheme, either. OC Ryan Grubb posted the league’s fifth-lowest run rate at 37.2%.

Health Has Worked Against Him As Well

Walker missed time with ankle, calf, and oblique injuries. HC Mike McDonald even said this June that Walker’s “working through an ankle, but he should be fine.”

He’s missed at least two games in all three pro seasons, and durability remains the biggest knock against him entering 2025.

2025 Expectations

Walker Headed for Clearest Backfield Lead Yet?

Walker hits a contract year set for another lead back role.

Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet returns as the No. 2 RB and change of pace option. In 11 healthy games with Walker last season, Charbonnet tallied only:

• 4.1 carries per game
• 12.8 rushing yards per game
• 2 rushing TDs
• 6.8% target share

Seattle added RB Damien Martinez in the draft, but he fell to Round 7 and doesn’t project as a 2025 factor.

Shaky Unit Offers More Volatility Than Upside

Odds are against this offense making meaningful strides.

Swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold makes for a slight upgrade based on 2024 results. But it only increases the volatility of this unit based on the complete careers of both passers. And what if Darnold can’t succeed outside of a great environment in Minnesota? 

The WR corps looks worse after swapping out D.K. Metcalf for Cooper Kupp, too. The former Ram has missed 5+ games in three straight seasons.

There’s at least reason for hope along the O-line after Seattle invested a Round 1 pick in G Grey Zabel.

Walker Could Feast in 2025

In June, OT Abe Lucas shed some light on the new offensive approach under OC Klint Kubiak:

Seattle signaled a commitment to the ground game by converting rookie TE Robby Ouzts to FB. But does this line up with Kubiak’s brief OC history?

Consider this: In 2021 -- with Kirk Cousins at QB -- the Vikings ranked 21st in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

Last year, in a much less stable situation, New Orleans finished 19th in pass rate; 25th in pass rate over expected.

Seattle’s current personnel suggests Walker will play a huge role on the ground – if he’s able to dodge injury trouble.

Zach Charbonnet

Bottom Line: Don't Treat Him as More Than a Handcuff

Charbonnet remains a strong handcuff with an outside shot at some standalone flex value. Treat him as a fantasy RB4.

2024 Summary

Three Big Weeks, 11 Forgettable Ones

Charbonnet turned 135 carries into 569 yards and 8 scores. He added 42 grabs, 340 yards, and 1 TD as a receiver.

He recorded three top-10 PPR finishes, including an overall RB1 finish in Week 14. A healthy Kenneth Walker limited the ceiling, though. Charbonnet finished outside the top-24 RBs on 11 occasions.

Charbonnet Delivered When Walker Sat

Let’s look at the splits with Walker active vs. inactive. The 24-year-old lead back missed time with oblique, calf, and ankle injuries.

In 11 games with Walker, Charbonnet averaged:

• 4.1 carries per game
• 12.8 rushing yards per game
• 2 rushing TDs
• 6.8% target share

But in six games without the starter?

• 15.1 carries
• 72.1 yards 
• 0.66 rushing TDs
• 12% target share

Essentially, Charbonnet was a plug-and-play fantasy starter when Walker sat. But he wasn’t a startable option with Walker healthy.

Efficient Runner, Just OK Receiver

Charbonnet’s efficiency metrics improved compared to 2023. They also look promising alongside his peers -- at least as a rusher.

Among 36 RBs with 130+ carries, he ranked:

• eighth in yards after contact per attempt
• 10th in PFF elusive rating
• 20th in yards per carry

Charbonnet wasn’t as efficient as a pass catcher. Among 31 RBs with 40+ targets, he ranked:

• 18th in yards after catch per reception
• 20th in yards per catch
• 21st in yards per route run

Ex-OC Pumped Pass Rate; O-Line Struggled

Seattle leaned pass under one-and-done OC Ryan Grubb. The former college coach orchestrated a unit that ranked fifth in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

QB Geno Smith rebounded from a down 2023. But Seattle’s O-line remained a problem, leading to a 24th-place finish in PFF’s run blocking grades. They ranked 28th in ESPN’s run block win rate.

2025 Expectations

Walker Injury History Means Potential Opportunity

Expect Charbonnet to function as a clear No. 2 RB in 2025.

Kenneth Walker returns for a contract year and has simply proven to be more dynamic. But durability is a question mark. He has missed 2+ games in all three NFL seasons.

We project Charbonnet for 8.5 touches per game.

Seattle Got Different, Not Better

This supporting cast did not improve in the offseason.

Swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold looks like an upgrade by the 2024 stats. But it only increases the volatility of this unit based on the full careers of both passers. And what if Darnold can’t succeed outside of a great environment in Minnesota? 

The WR corps looks worse after swapping out D.K. Metcalf for Cooper Kupp. The former Ram has missed 5+ games in three straight seasons.

There’s at least reason for hope along the O-line after Seattle invested a Round 1 pick in G Grey Zabel.

Team Looks Ready to Run

In June, OT Abe Lucas shed some light on the new offensive approach under OC Klint Kubiak:

Seattle signaled a commitment to the ground game by converting rookie TE Robby Ouzts to FB. But does this line up with Kubiak’s brief OC history?

Consider this: In 2021 -- with Kirk Cousins at QB -- the Vikings ranked 21st in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

Last year, in a much less stable situation, New Orleans finished 19th in pass rate; 25th in pass rate over expected.

So it’s reasonable to expect a run-focused attack in 2025 – especially considering the current personnel.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Bottom Line: Floor's High But Ceiling Looks Iffy

Smith-Njigba projects as the clear centerpiece of Seattle’s passing game, but changes at OC and QB add potential pitfalls. The third-year pro settles in as a mid-tier WR2.

2024 Summary

JSN Delivered Breakout Season

Smith-Njigba broke out with 100 catches, 1,130 yards, and 6 TDs. Only six WRs beat his catch total.

He flashed a high-end fantasy ceiling with four top-10 PPR finishes. That includes an overall WR1 finish in Week 9.

He mixed in five finishes at WR45 or worse, ultimately settling as the WR10 on the season. He dropped to WR20 in points per game.

Took Over Receiving Corps in Second Season

Smith-Njigba beat D.K. Metcalf in target share (24% to 22%). 

Per PFF, JSN ran 83.6% of his routes from the slot. No surprise there.

He saw 64.6% of his targets either behind the line of scrimmage or within nine air yards.

Catch Rate Was Elite, Separation Wasn’t

Among 51 WRs with 80+ targets, the 23-year-old ranked:

• sixth in catch rate
• 16th in PFF receiving grade
• 19th in yards after catch per reception
• 27th in yards per route run
• 37th in yards per catch

Interestingly, JSN ranked just 64th in ESPN’s Open Score. He finished 37th in Overall Score, which also factors in Catch and Yards After Catch performance.

Pass-Heavy Scheme Helped the Breakout

The 2024 Seahawks supplied a friendly environment. 

Seattle ranked fifth in pass rate and fifth in pass rate over expected. Under one-and-done OC Ryan Grubb, Geno Smith stayed healthy and set a career high with a 70.4% completion rate.

JSN also benefited from Tyler Lockett’s sharp decline. The veteran saw 7.2 targets per game in 2023 but sank to 4.3 in 2024.

JSN Outrunning Injurious Past

Smith-Njigba missed 10 games in college with a 2022 hamstring injury. He underwent wrist surgery in August of 2023 but managed to return in time for Week 1.

Last year, he played all 17 games and ranked 12th among WRs in snaps.

2025 Expectations

Seattle Might Need Smith-Njigba Even More

JSN totaled 137 targets last year, so it’s tough to project a bump even after the D.K. Metcalf trade to Pittsburgh. 

Cooper Kupp steps into the No. 2 WR role, but for how long? The former Ram hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season since 2021. He’s now 32.

There’s not much target competition elsewhere. Rookie TE Elijah Arroyo carries dynasty appeal because of his athleticism, but we’re not buying him as a major 2025 factor.

Seattle's WR depth (Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Bobo, and rookies Tory Horton and Ricky White) is among the shakiest league-wide.

QB Change Raises New Question

Smith-Njigba will break in a new QB following the trade of Geno Smith.

In steps Sam Darnold, fresh off a breakout 2024. The former Round 1 pick excelled with 7.8 yards per attempt and a 76.5% adjusted completion rate. 

He ranked 14th among 36 qualifiers in on-target throw rate (77.7%). The No. 1 finisher? Smith, at 81.8%.

Now, can Darnold excel outside of an excellent scheme and supporting cast? Those questions add some uncertainty to JSN’s 2025 outlook.

Expect New OC to Cut Down Passing

New OC Klint Kubiak brings two years of experience as a play-caller. 

His 2021 Vikings ranked: 

• 12th in yards
• 14th in points
• 16th in rush attempts
• 11th in pass attempts

His 2024 Saints finished:

• 21st in yards
• 24th in points
• 21st in rush attempts
• 16th in pass attempts

Notably, his units ranked 8th (2021) and 4th (2024) in pace. 

In 2021 -- with Kirk Cousins at QB -- the Vikings ranked 21st in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

Last year, in a much less stable situation, New Orleans finished 19th in pass rate; 25th in pass rate over expected.

Expect a balanced offensive approach in Seattle and fewer passes than last year.

Cooper Kupp

Bottom Line: If He's Healthy, Maybe He Can Help

Kupp landed in a fine spot for volume ... if his body can hold up over a full season. We simply haven’t seen that since 2021, adding risk to the new Seahawk. View Kupp as no more than a fantasy WR4.

2024 Summary

Kupp Came Out Hot But Quickly Cooled Off

Kupp appeared set for a huge season after racking up 14 catches, 110 yards, and one score in the opener. He garnered a massive 21 targets (44%), boosted by an in-game injury to Puka Nacua.

Kupp finished as the PPR WR2 that week, but his success proved short-lived. He posted only two more top-12 fantasy finishes among his other 11 games. He slotted WR39 or worse five times.

Kupp ranked a solid WR21 in PPR points per game. His ranking in total fantasy points? 38th.

Kupp's 67 catches, 710 yards, and 6 TDs lined up with his 12-game 2023.

Slot Role Held; Target Share Slipped

Kupp’s primary slot role remained in place. Per PFF, he saw a 65.3% slot rate, up slightly from 2023.

Kupp’s average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.7 yards also aligned with his recent average.

The veteran averaged a solid 8.3 targets per game. Still, he finished a distant second behind Puka Nacua in target share (24% to 30%). Nacua appeared in one fewer game.

Metrics Point to WR in Decline

Kupp's efficiency didn't approach the elite levels we saw in 2021-2022. 

Last year, among 84 qualifying WRs, he finished 46th in PFF receiving grade. He slotted 28th in yards per route run.

Kupp's metrics from ESPN weren't comforting, either. He ranked 102nd out of 116 qualifiers in their Open Score. He slotted 87th in Catch Score and 70th in YAC Score.

Low Pass Rate Limited Production

The Rams weren’t a pass-heavy team, ranking 24th in pass rate (57%) and pass rate over expected (-3.5%).

Matthew Stafford played through back soreness but didn’t miss a game due to injury. Stafford and Kupp rested for Week 18.

Overall, the Rams ranked 15th in total yardage; 20th in scoring.

Kupp Faded Late

Kupp’s production dipped late in the season.

Over his final five outings -- including the postseason -- he recorded:

• 17 targets (11.4% share)
• 2 catches per game
• 28.6 yards per game
• 0 TDs
• 1.04 YPRR

And His Body Might Be Failing Him

Kupp picked up a high-ankle sprain in Week 2. He missed five games and didn't look 100% upon returning.

This followed a 2023 season that turned up hamstring and ankle injuries. And in 2022, Kupp needed surgery to repair another high-ankle sprain.

He last played a full season in 2021.

2025 Expectations

Kupp Lands as Seattle's WR2

Rumors emerged ahead of the 2024 trade deadline, but Kupp remained in Los Angeles.

The Rams tried to facilitate a trade again in March, but the team ultimately released him. Shortly after, Kupp signed a three-year deal ($17.5 million guaranteed) with Seattle.

He slides into the No. 2 target role behind 2024 breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba. D.K. Metcalf leaves behind 108 targets after the trade to Pittsburgh. Tyler Lockett -- now a Titan -- removes 74 targets.

What's notable is that Smith-Njigba played 83.6% of his snaps in the slot last year, per PFF. We expect to see him and Kupp play interchangeable roles, with The Athletic’s Michael-Shawn Dugar expecting more perimeter usage for JSN.

Seattle’s depth options shouldn’t affect Kupp’s role. No. 3 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a low-volume deep threat. And Round 5 rookie Tory Horton – while interesting for dynasty – is a long-shot for Year 1 value.

Expect Offensive Balance ... Which Won't Help Kupp

New OC Klint Kubiak brings two years of experience as a play-caller. 

His 2021 Vikings ranked: 

• 12th in yards
• 14th in points
• 16th in rush attempts
• 11th in pass attempts

His 2024 Saints finished:

• 21st in yards
• 24th in points
• 21st in rush attempts
• 16th in pass attempts

Notably, his units ranked 8th (2021) and 4th (2024) in pace. 

In 2021 -- with Kirk Cousins at QB -- the Vikings ranked 21st in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

Last year, in a much less stable situation, New Orleans finished 19th in pass rate; 25th in pass rate over expected.

Expect a balanced offensive approach in Seattle.

Elijah Arroyo

Bottom Line: Don't Bet on 2025 Value

Arroyo brings top-10 long-term upside for dynasty leagues. But in redraft, he’s no more than a potential in-season pickup.

2024 Summary

College Found Solid Efficiency, Modest Involvement

Arroyo posted career highs with 35 catches, 590 yards, and 7 TDs last year.

His market shares weren’t as impressive, as Miami averaged a huge 348.2 passing yards per game. Arroyo accounted for 10.6% of the team’s catches; 13% of the receiving yards. 

His TDs amounted to a 17% share.

He's a WR in a TE's Body

A loaded supporting cast didn’t help, but Arroyo managed just a 9.5% target share. That ranked fifth on the Hurricanes.

Arroyo showed WR-like traits, and that shows up in his usage. He played 51.4% of his passing snaps in the slot, per PFF. Only 39.3% surfaced as an inline TE.

The 6’5, 250-pounder showed seam-stretching ability. His 11.1-yard average depth of target ranked third on the team. That mark also ranked fifth in a sample of 47 TEs with 45+ targets.

We Know He Gain Gobble Up Yards

Let’s stick with that same sample of 47 TEs.

Within that group, Arroyo ranked:

• first in yards per catch
• second in yards after catch per reception
• 13th in catch rate
• 17th in yards per route run

The 22-year-old pulled down only one of five targets in contested situations.

Miami's High-Powered Offense Helped

Miami led the nation with a huge 43.9 points and 536 yards per game, so the environment was ripe for production. 

QB Cam Ward supplied a playmaking talent. He ranked second nationally in passing yards and PFF passing grade and slotted 11th in pass attempts.

Maybe Arroyo Just Needed to Get Healthy?

Arroyo’s injury history makes his 2024 even more impressive.

He played only nine games in 2022 and 2023 because of a left ACL tear. Fortunately, he made it through last season setback-free.

Arroyo also opted out of the NFL Combine because of a knee injury, although it didn’t affect his participation in offseason practices.

2025 Expectations

Noah Fant Stands in the Way ... Barely

Arroyo will enter a training camp battle with returning veteran Noah Fant.

Fant’s contract carries a $13.4 million cap hit for 2025, so he’s unlikely to be benched at any point. But his lack of production as a Seahawk (and Bronco) suggests there’s an opportunity for the rookie to earn playing time. 

In three Seattle seasons, Fant has averaged:

• 2.7 catches per game
• 29.1 yards per game
• 0.1 TDs per game

Now, even if Arroyo becomes the No. 1 TE in terms of snaps and routes, that doesn’t guarantee fantasy value. Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns as the clear No. 1 WR. Cooper Kupp also arrived this offseason to handle No. 2 duties – although we’ll see how long he can stay healthy.

Darnold's Probably Not a Plus

We’ll see if Sam Darnold can sustain his high level of play from Minnesota. Seattle presents a downgrade in receiving talent and coaching infrastructure, so it’s fair to expect some regression.

Current projections have Darnold in line to finish 19th in pass attempts; 23rd in yards.

TE Usage Under Kubiak Has Varied

Arroyo will play under first-year OC Klint Kubiak, who brings two years of experience as a play-caller. 

His 2021 Vikings ranked: 

• 12th in yards
• 14th in points
• 16th in rush attempts
• 11th in pass attempts

His 2024 Saints finished:

• 21st in yards
• 24th in points
• 21st in rush attempts
• 16th in pass attempts

Notably, his units ranked eighth (2021) and fourth (2024) in pace. 

The 2021 Vikings ranked 27th in TE target share (16%). Last year -- with injuries to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed -- that number jumped to sixth (28%).

Noah Fant

Bottom Line: Just Forget He Exists

Seattle did nothing this offseason to suggest it expects more from Fant in 2025. Frankly, paying up for Cooper Kupp and drafting Elijah Arroyo might even signal the opposite. He’s not on our fantasy radar.

2024 Summary

Fant Spent the Season Hiding from Relevance

Fant totaled 48 catches, 500 yards, and 1 TD across 14 games.

His best fantasy line -- 5 catches, 63 yards, and 1 TD -- didn't come until Week 18. That marked one of only three top-12 PPR finishes. The 27-year-old finished outside the top-20 TEs on eight occasions.

High Slot Rate, Low Impact

Fant ranked fourth on the team with 64 targets (a 13% team share). He peaked with a seven-target outing against Green Bay in Week 15.

One-and-done OC Ryan Grubb used Fant as a jumbo WR, leading to a career-high 52.6% slot rate. Only 29.8% of his passing snaps came inline.

The result? A career-low 5.9-yard average depth of target. He failed to catch any of his two targets of 20+ yards, per PFF.

Metrics Point to Merely OK Performance

Among 33 TEs with 50+ targets, Fant ranked:

• seventh in yards after catch per reception
• 13th in yards per catch
• 15th in catch rate
• 19th in PFF receiving grade
• 25th in yards per route run

So he was OK by most measures, but far from impactful.

That proved true as a TD scorer, too. Following a scoreless 2023, Fant registered just a 2% TD rate last fall.

High Pass Rate Couldn't Rescue TE

Seattle wasn’t shy about chucking the ball last year.

In fact, they ranked fifth in pass rate and pass rate over expected. They slotted sixth in total pass attempts.

Geno Smith rebounded from a down 2023. His passing yards per game (241 to 254), yards per attempt (7.3 to 7.5), and completion rate (64.7% to 70.4%) each improved vs. ‘23.

Fant simply didn’t hold a role that commanded reliable volume. And a relatively healthy season from Seattle’s pass catchers didn’t help. D.K. Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett combined to miss only two games.

2024 Dings Alter Clean Injury History

Fant missed a career-high three games with a groin injury. He also missed several August practices with a toe injury.

The former Bronco played all 17 games in 2022 and 2023.

2025 Expectations

Competition Left Town, But Will That Matter?

Seattle traded D.K. Metcalf and his 108 targets to Pittsburgh. 

Tyler Lockett and his 74 signed with Tennessee. 

Good news for Fant, right?

Sure, at least until the signing of Cooper Kupp (three years, $17.5 million guaranteed). At 32, and with 5+ missed games in three straight seasons, it’s fair to question what he’ll provide. Clearly, though, the contract signals a No. 2 WR role behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Perhaps more telling was the selection of Round 2 TE Elijah Arroyo. He’s not a polished prospect with only one season of notable production. But Arroyo’s high-end athleticism could force an early-season role.

At bottom: Fant’s not positioned for fantasy-friendly volume.

QB Switch Doesn't Look Like Upgrade

The move from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold is a push at best.

Sure, Darnold assembled the better 2024, but how will he perform outside of Minnesota? At a minimum, it’s reasonable to expect some regression as he leaves an offense featuring HC Kevin O’Connell, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison.

New OC Doesn't Change Fant's Role Uncertainty

Fant will learn a new playbook under first-year OC Klint Kubiak, who brings two years of experience as a play-caller. 

His 2021 Vikings ranked: 

• 12th in yards
• 14th in points
• 16th in rush attempts
• 11th in pass attempts

His 2024 Saints finished:

• 21st in yards
• 24th in points
• 21st in rush attempts
• 16th in pass attempts

Notably, his units ranked eighth (2021) and fourth (2024) in pace. 

The 2021 Vikings ranked 27th in TE target share (16%). Last year -- with injuries to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed -- that number jumped to sixth (28%).

Even if Kubiak stresses TE usage, Fant’s unlikely to fully benefit given the presence of Arroyo.

Where Do Seahawks Players Land in Your Rankings?

Should you target any Seahawks in your fantasy football drafts? Only one way to find out.

Check our fantasy football rankings now to see where every player lands in your format.

Better yet, use the league sync to import your specific settings and get rankings custom fit to your needs.

Matt and Jared ponder how to treat Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this WR rankings video.