Did you know that Bucky Irving didn't see a single carry inside the five-yard line last season?

Or that Matt Stafford's 7.7% TD rate was the sixth highest among 289 qualifying QBs over the last 10 years?

Those are just two of the nuggets I uncovered building our 2026 fantasy football rankings.

Fantasy Football Projections: Key to Accurate Rankings

If detailed fantasy football projections aren’t part of your rankings process, you’re doing it wrong.

Projections force us to assign real numbers -- not just vibes -- to every player. They make us account for coaching tendencies, play volume, run/pass splits, usage trends, and efficiency.

These projections fuel our fantasy football rankings -- which, by the way, have won numerous most accurate awards.

As I worked through this year's projections, I jotted down every interesting, surprising, or actionable takeaway.

You'll find 126 of them below.

Enjoy!

Arizona Cardinals Projections

2. Trey McBride ran 118 more pass routes than any other TE last year. That was bigger than the gap between the No. 2 and 9 TEs in routes.

3. McBride’s ranks among TEs last year:

• 1st with 48 red-zone targets (21 more than any other TE)
• 1st with 18 end-zone targets (5 more than any other TE)
• 1st with 11.9 expected TDs (2.8 more than any other TE)

4. Marvin Harrison Jr.’s 2.6 yards after catch per reception over the last two seasons ranks 87th among 98 WRs with 50+ catches.

5. Michael Wilson’s splits with and without Marvin Harrison Jr. last year:

Atlanta Falcons Projections

6. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Bijan Robinson ranked:

• 4th in yards per carry
• 7th in rush yards over expected per carry
• 2nd in yards after contact per carry
• 1st in missed tackles forced per carry

7. Drake London registered a career-high 29.2% target share last year and has now topped 28% in three of four NFL seasons.

Baltimore Ravens Projections

8. The Ravens ranked 29th with just 57.3 plays per game last year. They ran at least 61.8 plays per game in each of Lamar Jackson's first 6 seasons as a full-time starter.

9. Lamar Jackson averaged 41.5 rushing yards per game up until his Week 4 hamstring injury. He averaged just 20.3 rushing yards per game over his final nine outings.

10. Derrick Henry forced a career-low 0.14 missed tackles per carry last year. (Although he still ranked top four among 51 qualifying RBs in yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, and rush yards over expected per attempt.)

12. Mark Andrews tallied career lows last year in:

• Pro Football Focus receiving grade (61.6)
• Yards per route (1.23)
• Yards after catch per reception (2.1)

Buffalo Bills Projections

13. Josh Allen has posted a passing TD rate of 5+% in each of the last six seasons. (Lamar Jackson has done it in five of those six. No other QB has done it more than four.)

14. Allen’s ranks among QBs last year:

• 1st in rushing attempts
• 1st in rushing yards
• 1st in rushing TDs
• 1st in expected rushing TDs

15. James Cook climbed from 24th among RBs in expected PPR points per game in 2024 to seventh last year. (He also climbed from 10th to sixth in actual points per game.)

16. Dalton Kincaid’s 2.79 yards per route last year was the best from a TE with 40+ targets since George Kittle’s 2.84 in 2020.

Carolina Panthers Projections

17. Bryce Young’s 6.0 yards per pass attempt over the last three seasons ranks 36th among 37 QBs with 500+ attempts.

18. Chuba Hubbard’s ranks among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year:

• 41st in yards per carry
• 45th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 49th in yards after contact per carry
• 50th in missed tackles forced per carry
• 41st in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

17. Tetairoa McMillan’s 1.84 yards per route ranked second among 12 rookies with 40+ targets last year and 16th among 62 rookie WRs with 40+ targets over the last five seasons.

18. McMillan finished top nine among WRs last year in expected receiving TDs (7.7), red zone targets (34), and end zone targets (12).

19. Jalen Coker’s 9.8 yards per target over the last two seasons ranks eighth among 121 WRs with 50+ targets.

Chicago Bears Projections

20. Caleb Williams had 29 passes dropped last year -- third most in the league.

21. D’Andre Swift beat Kyle Monangai last year in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per carry
• Missed tackles forced per carry
• Pro Football Focus rushing grade

23. Just 59% of Rome Odunze’s targets were catchable last year -- 72nd among 76 qualifying WRs.

24. D.J. Moore has posted career lows in yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade in both of the last two seasons.

25. Among 38 TEs with 40+ targets last year, Colston Loveland ranked:

• 6th in targets per route
• 5th in yards per route
• 3rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade

Cincinnati Bengals Projections

26. The Bengals have ranked top two in pass rate and neutral pass rate in three straight seasons.

27. Joe Burrow was the only QB to rank top 10 in both Big Time Throw Rate (4th) and Turnover Worthy Play Rate (1st) last year.

28. Chase Brown has averaged 17.9 PPR points over his last 25 games. (Only six RBs averaged more last year.)

29. Ja’Marr Chase led all WRs in pass routes and targets last year, despite missing a game.

30. Tee Higgins’ ranks among WRs last year:

• Tied for second in TDs (11)
• 8th in expected TDs (7.9)
• 4th in red-zone targets (37)
• 7th in end-zone targets (12)

Cleveland Browns Projections

31. Quinshon Judkins ranked 46th among 51 qualifying RBs in yards per carry last year -- but 29th or better in rush yards over expected per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and missed tackles forced per attempt.

32. Dylan Sampson was the only RB to lead his team in yards per route last year.

Dallas Cowboys Projections

34. The Cowboys have finished top four in plays in each of the last three seasons under HC/OC Brian Schottenheimer.

35. Through Week 17 last year, Dak Prescott ranked:

• 3rd in passing TDs
• 1st in throws into the end zone
• 2nd in expected passing TDs

36. CeeDee Lamb scored on a career-low 4.0% of his receptions last year. He tallied a 7.7% TD rate over his first five seasons.

37. Jake Ferguson led all TEs in PPR points per game and ranked second in expected points per game in four outings without WR CeeDee Lamb. He sank to 14th in points per game and 11th in expected points per game with Lamb.

Denver Broncos Projections

38. Bo Nix has been sacked on just 3.76% of his dropbacks through two NFL seasons. That’s the 11th-lowest sack rate all-time among QBs with 500+ career attempts.

40. Courtland Sutton has posted a TD rate of 9.5+% in three straight seasons. (He scored on just 5.9% of his catches over his first five seasons.)

Detroit Lions Projections

41. Jared Goff scored 3.4 more fantasy points per game than expected in 2024 and 3.2 more than expected in 2025.

42. Jahmyr Gibbs got a big spike in volume and fantasy points after Dan Campbell took over as play-caller midway through last season.

43. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only WR with a 90+ Pro Football Focus receiving grade in each of the last four seasons.

44. Sam LaPorta set career highs and ranked fifth among 49 qualifying TEs last year in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Green Bay Packers Projections

45. Jordan Love completed 70.9% of his passes at 8.4 yards per attempt with Tucker Kraft through Week 8 last year. He sank to a 61.9% completion rate and 7.0 yards per attempt without Kraft from Week 9 on.

46. Through Week 10 last year (before injuries hit), Josh Jacobs ranked sixth among RBs in PPR points per game and third in expected points per game.

47. Christian Watson led Packers WRs in targets per route, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade. The yards per route and PFF grade were both career highs and ranked top-six among 76 qualifying WRs league-wide.

48. Tucker Kraft tied for second among TEs in PPR points per game but ranked just 13th in expected points per game. He was the biggest overachiever at TE, scoring 5.0 more points than expected.

49. Kraft’s 10.8 yards after catch per reception led all TEs and ranked third among 151 players with 40+ targets last year.

Houston Texans Projections

50. C.J. Stroud’s adjusted completion rate and Pro Football Focus passing grade have declined across each of his first three NFL seasons.

51. Woody Marks’ ranks among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year:

• 46th in yards per carry
• 34th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 46th in yards after contact per carry
• 45th in missed tackles forced per carry
• 43rd in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

52. Nico Collins registered three-year lows last season in yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade … but both marks still ranked ninth among 76 qualifying WRs.

53. Jayden Higgins ranked fourth in yards per route and third in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among 15 rookie WRs with 30+ targets.

Indianapolis Colts Projections

55. Michael Pittman scored on 8.8% of his catches last year. He registered a 4.4% TD rate over his first five seasons.

56. Tyler Warren averaged 1.95 yards per route through Week 13 with Daniel Jones -- fourth among 36 TEs with 30+ targets. That sank to 0.88 from Week 14 on.

57. Warren got three carries inside the five-yard line last year -- more than Bucky Irving, Chuba Hubbard, and Alvin Kamara.

Jacksonville Jaguars Projections

58. Trevor Lawrence led all QBs in expected fantasy points per game. He and Bo Nix were the only QBs to rank top seven in both pass and rush attempts.

59. Lawrence tied for second among QBs with nine rushing TDs, ranked second with 7.1 expected rushing TDs, and ranked third with 10 carries inside the five-yard line.

60. Bhayshul Tuten beat Travis Etienne in yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced per attempt last year.

61. Brian Thomas declined in virtually every meaningful metric from 2024 to 2025:

62. Jakobi Meyers drew a 23.5% target share over his final eight games with the Jaguars. (He also topped a 23% target share in two of his previous four seasons.)

63. Parker Washington led Jaguars WRs last year in:

• Targets per route
• Yards per route
• Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• ESPN receiver score

Kansas City Chiefs Projections

64. The Chiefs have finished 15th, 15th, and 21st in points the past three seasons. They had finished top six in each of the previous six.

66. Mahomes posted career lows last year with:

• 62.7% completion rate
• 73.3% adjusted completion rate
• 74.3% on-target throw rate
• 70.7 Pro Football Focus pass grade

67. Rashee Rice finished as a top-12 PPR WR in five of his eight games last year.

68. Travis Kelce averaged a career-low 1.47 yards per route last year (although that still ranked 22nd among 49 qualifying TEs).

Las Vegas Raiders Projections

69. Ashton Jeanty’s 1.6 yards before contact per attempt ranked 56th among 60 qualifying RBs.

70. 52 RBs tallied 50+ carries with more than 0 yards before contact last year. Jeanty’s ranks on those carries:

• 20th in yards per carry
• 3rd in missed tackles forced per carry
• 2nd in yards after contact per carry
• 30th in success rate
• 46th in explosive run rate

71. Brock Bowers climbed from a 4.5% TD rate on a 5.3% expected TD rate in 2024 to a 10.9% TD rate on an 11.4% expected TD rate in 2025.

Los Angeles Chargers Projections

72. The Dolphins ranked top six in total RB PPR points in each of the last three seasons under new Chargers OC Mike McDaniel.

74. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Omarion Hampton ranked:

• 24th in yards per carry
• 15th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 11th in yards after contact per carry
• 3rd in missed tackles forced per carry
• 9th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

75. Ladd McConkey ranked 52nd among 76 qualifying WRs last year with 1.40 yards per route -- down from 2.38 in 2024.

76. Oronde Gadsden ranked second among 35 qualifying TEs in yards after catch over expected per reception (+1.3).

Los Angeles Rams Projections

77. Matt Stafford led all QBs last year with seven top-five weekly finishes.

78. Stafford’s 7.7% TD rate last year was a career high by .9 percentage points and the sixth-highest rate in the last 10 seasons.

79. Kyren Williams’ 0.81 yards per route last year ranked 35th out of 42 RBs with 30+ targets. He’s yet to reach 1.0 yards per route through four NFL seasons.

80. Puka Nacua scored four TDs on a 14.8% TD rate in three games without Davante Adams last year. He scored six TDs on a 5.9% TD rate in 13 games with Adams.

81. Through Week 15, Davante Adams led all WRs in TDs (14), expected TDs (14.9), and end-zone targets (17).

82. Adams’ 65% catchable target rate ranked 59th among 76 qualifying WRs. (Puka Nacua ranked third at 86%.)

Miami Dolphins Projections

83. De’Von Achane led all 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year in yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

84. Achane has converted just five of 22 carries (22.7%) inside the five-yard line into TDs over the last two seasons. (NFL average is 43.0%.)

85. Jaylen Waddle’s ranks among 76 WRs with 50+ targets last year:

• 16th in targets per route
• 14th in yards per route
• 12th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade

Minnesota Vikings Projections

86. Aaron Jones registered career lows last year in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per carry
• Missed tackles forced per carry
• Pro Football Focus rushing grade

87. Jordan Mason beat Aaron Jones in all five of those above metrics, ranking top 11 among 51 qualifying RBs in yards per carry, rush yards over expected per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt.

88. Justin Jefferson’s ranks among WRs:

• Tied for 70th in TDs (2)
• 4th in expected TDs (8.8)
• Tied for 9th in red-zone targets (33)
• Tied for 3rd in end-zone targets (14)

89. Jordan Addison registered a career-low 7.1% TD rate in 2025. But his 13.1% expected TD rate was a career high.

New England Patriots Projections

90. Drake Maye’s ranks among 42 qualifying QBs last year:

• 1st in completion rate
• 1st in yards per attempt
• 3rd in average target depth
• 4th in adjusted completion rate
• 1st in completion rate over expected
• 4th in Pro Football Focus pass grade

91. Maye’s 8.9 yards per attempt last year was the 17th-best mark in NFL history (min. 300 attempts).

92. Rhamondre Stevenson led all 51 qualifying RBs with +1.36 rush yards over expected per attempt. (He also ranked top five in yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced per attempt.)

93. TreVeyon Henderson’s ranks among 40 RBs with 30+ targets last year:

• 31st in yards per route
• 32nd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• 34th in PFF pass block grade

94. Stefon Diggs’ 83.3% catch rate led all 76 qualifying WRs and was a career high by nearly seven percentage points.

95. Hunter Henry ranked top five among TEs in TDs (7), expected TDs (6.6), and red-zone targets (25).

New Orleans Saints Projections

96. The 2025 Saints led the league in pace (seconds per snap). Kellen Moore’s offenses have now ranked top four in pace in six of his seven seasons as a HC or OC.

98. Alvin Kamara ranked dead last among 51 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus rushing grade and dead last among 40 qualifying RBs in PFF receiving grade.

99. Chris Olave averaged 1.63 yards per route with Spencer Rattler vs. 2.37 with Tyler Shough. (Only seven WRs with 50+ targets topped 2.37 yards per route last year.)

New York Giants Projections

100. Jaxson Dart finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in nine of 12 games and fell outside the top-14 at his position just once.

101. Dart averaged 7.0 carries, 40.6 rushing yards, and 0.8 TDs across his 12 starts. That’s a full-season pace of:

• 119 carries
• 690 yards
• 12.8 TDs

102. Cam Skattebo ranked seventh among 40 qualifying RBs in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

New York Jets Projections

103. Garrett Wilson drew a 32.9% target share in his six full games last season. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a higher target share.

Philadelphia Eagles Projections

105. Saquon Barkley sank from 3.8 yards before contact per carry in 2024 to 2.5 last year. His yards after contact per carry declined just slightly from 2.0 to 1.6.

106. A.J. Brown’s 2.06 yards per route last year was a career low but still ranked 17th among 76 qualifying WRs.

107. DeVonta Smith sank from an 89% catchable target rate in 2025 to 74% last year. That latter mark still ranked 25th among 76 qualifying WRs.

Pittsburgh Steelers Projections

108. Jaylen Warren tallied a career-high 13.2 carries per game last year. But his 8.5% target share was a three-year low (14.6% and 10.8% the previous two seasons).

109. D.K. Metcalf led all 127 WRs and TEs with 45+ targets last year with +2.8 yards after catch over expected per reception.

110. Metcalf has topped a 10% TD rate in five of seven NFL seasons. (NFL average is around 7.6%.)

111. Darnell Washington has improved his targets per game, catches per game, yards per game, and yards per route in each of his three NFL seasons.

San Francisco 49ers Projections

112. Brock Purdy has thrown a TD on 7+% of his passes in three of his four NFL seasons. (NFL average is 4.4%.)

113. There have been nine RB seasons of 24+ PPR points per game since 2017. Christian McCaffrey owns four of those seasons.

114. McCaffrey led all RBs last year with 6.7 expected receiving TDs. No other RB had more than 3.7.

115. George Kittle’s ranks among 49 TEs with 30+ targets last year:

• 5th in targets per route
• 4th in yards per route
• 1st in Pro Football Focus receiving grade

Seattle Seahawks Projections

116. Sam Darnold ranked top eight among 42 qualifying QBs in:

• Completion rate
• Yards per attempt
• Adjusted completion rate
• Completion rate over expected
• Pro Football Focus passing grade

117. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s 33.9% target share last year was the highest by any player since at least 2013.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projections

119. Bucky Irving did not get a single carry inside the five-yard line last year. (Sean Tucker and Rachaad White combined for nine in Irving's 10 games.)

120. Irving ranked bottom two among 51 qualifying RBs last year in yards per carry, rush yards over expected per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. (He ranked fourth, first, and sixth in those metrics in 2024.)

121. 74% of Emeka Egbuka’s targets through Week 6 last year were catchable. That plummeted to 50% from Week 7 on.

• Yards per route (1.36)
• Yards per target (7.1)
• Pro Football Focus receiving grade (68.8)

Tennessee Titans Projections

122. Cam Ward’s three best games last season in terms of adjusted yards per pass attempt came in his final three full games.

123. Gunnar Helm drew a target on 22% of his routes last year. That ranked sixth among 49 qualifying TEs.

Washington Commanders Projections

124. A league-high 10.9% of Jayden Daniels’ passes were dropped last year.

125. Chris Rodriguez’s 3.0 yards after contact per attempt over the last two seasons leads all 69 RBs with 100+ carries over that span.

126. Terry McLaurin registered career highs and ranked top 13 among 76 qualifying WRs last year in both yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

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