139 Things I Learned Doing 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

  

Did you know that Brian Thomas Jr. just posted the fifth-best yards per route by any rookie WR over the last 10 seasons?

Or that Baker Mayfield's 2024 TD rate was the seventh-highest among 228 qualifying QB seasons since 2015?

Those are just two of the hundreds of factoids I uncovered putting together our 2025 fantasy football rankings.

Fantasy Football Projections: Key to Accurate Rankings

If detailed fantasy football projections aren’t part of your rankings process, you’re doing it wrong.

Fantasy football, after all, is a game based purely on statistical production.

Creating projections assigns statistical values to every player, rather than just ranking guys based on gut feel.

The projections process also forces us to take a deep dive into every team and every player.

That includes:

• Coaching tendencies
• Play volume
• Run-pass splits
• Performance trends
• Rush and target shares
• Efficiency metrics

These projections fuel our fantasy football rankings – which, by the way, have won numerous most accurate awards.

The 2025 fantasy football projections and rankings are available right now. We'll be constantly tweaking and updating them throughout the offseason right up until the season opener.

As I worked through the projections, I jotted down interesting, noteworthy, or surprising tidbits I dug up. You'll find 139 of them below.

Enjoy!

   

Arizona Cardinals Projections

1. The Cardinals morphed from a run-leaning offense prior to their Week 11 bye to a pass-heavy offense after the bye.

2. Kyler Murray's rushing attempts per game have declined each year since 2020.

• 2020: 8.3
• 2021: 6.3
• 2022: 6.1
• 2023: 5.5
• 2024: 4.6

3. James Conner is one of just three RBs to record an 85+ Pro Football Focus rushing grade in both of the last two seasons. (Derrick Henry and Ken Walker are the other two.)

4. Trey McBride led all TEs in:

• Target share (28.2%)
• Targets per route (0.234)
• Targets per game (9.2)
• Catches per game (6.9)

5. Trey McBride led all TEs with 34 red-zone targets and ranked second with 8.5 expected TDs ... but tied for just 24th at the position with two actual TDs.

 

  

Atlanta Falcons Projections

6. Michael Penix Jr.'s 87.6 Pro Football Focus passing grade led all six rookie QBs with 100+ dropbacks last year and was the best mark from a rookie since Robert Griffin III in 2021.

7. Bijan Robinson averaged 14.5 carries on a 56.0% carry share over his first eight games. That spiked to 20.9 carries per game and a 65.3% share over his final nine outings.

9. Drake London set career highs last year in PFF receiving grade (90.1) and yards per route (2.32). Those marks ranked fourth and 11th, respectively, among 84 qualifying WRs.

 

Baltimore Ravens Projections

10. Lamar Jackson ranked second last year with 41 passing TDs but finished eighth with 27.7 expected passing scores. That 13.3-TD gap was easily the biggest in the league.

11. Lamar Jackson led all QBs with 570 yards on designed runs. (He also led with 364.5 expected yards on designed runs.)

12. Derrick Henry led 47 qualifying RBs in rush yards over expected per attempt (1.77) and PFF rushing grade (93.1).

13. Mark Andrews' ranks among 43 TEs with 30+ targets:

• eight in yards per route
• fourth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
• second in ESPN receiver score

14. Zay Flowers jumped from 1.64 yards per route as a rookie to 2.25 last year. The latter mark ranked 16th among 84 qualifying WRs.

  

Buffalo Bills Projections

15. The Bills finished 28th in pass rate (52.1%) last year. They ranked 31st in pass rate (48.2%) over the final seven games of 2023, after the switch to OC Joe Brady.

17. Josh Allen is the only QB with a 5+% passing TD rate in each of the last five seasons.

18. James Cook ranked 11th among RBs in PPR points per game but just 27th in expected PPR points per game. He was the fourth biggest overachiever at the position.

19. Khalil Shakir's 7.7 yards after catch per reception over the last three seasons ranks fourth among 127 WRs with 50+ catches over that span.

20. Dalton Kincaid's catchable target percentage plummeted from 89.9% in 2023 to 69.0% last year.

 

Carolina Panthers Projections

21. After returning to the starting lineup in Week 8, Bryce Young ranked sixth among 35 qualifying QBs in PFF passing grade.

22. Bryce Young's 6.1 yards per carry ranks third among 35 QBs with 50+ carries over the last two seasons.

23. Chuba Hubbard's ranks among 37 RBs with 30+ targets last year:

• 37th in yards per catch
• 36th in yards per route
• 36th in PFF receiving grade

24. Jalen Coker's ranks among 16 rookie WRs with 30+ targets last year:

• 4th in yards per route
• 6th in PFF receiving grade
• 4th in ESPN receiver score

     

Chicago Bears Projections

25. Caleb Williams was efficient on short throws last year but really struggled throwing deep. Here's how he ranked among 35 qualifying QBs:

26. D'Andre Swift ranked dead last among 47 qualifying RBs last year in rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.69).

27. Rome Odunze ranked 17th among WRs with 7.0 expected TDs. His three actual TDs tied for 60th at the position.

28. Cole Kmet's target shares by season:

• 2021: 17.2%
• 2022: 18.3%
• 2023: 17.5%
• 2024: 9.7%

 

Cincinnati Bengals Projections

29. The Bengals have ranked top 5 in pass rate and neutral pass rate in each of the last three seasons.

30. Joe Burrow set career highs last year in:

• Passing yards
• Passing TDs
• Completion rate
• Adjusted completion rate
• TD rate
• QBR
• PFF passing grade

32. Ja'Marr Chase's 23.7 PPR points per game were the 15th-most by a WR in NFL history.

33. Ja'Marr Chase led all WRs in:

• Receiving TDs
• Expected receiving TDs
• Red-zone targets
• End-zone targets

   

Cleveland Browns Projections

34. Jerome Ford's ranks among 47 RBs with 90+ carries last year:

• 5th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 5th in yards after contact per attempt
• 6th in PFF elusive rating

35. David Njoku in eight games with a route rate of 60+%:

• 9.9 targets per game (23.6% target share)
• 6th among TEs in PPR points per game
• 3rd among TEs in expected PPR points per game

36. Jerry Jeudy's splits with and without Amari Cooper last year:

37. Cedric Tillman in four games with a route rate of 80+% last year:

• 10.0 targets per game (21.5% share)
• 4th among WRs in expected PPR points per game
• 9th in actual PPR points per game

        

Dallas Cowboys Projections

38. In eight games with Dak Prescott last year, the Cowboys ranked:

• 1st in pass rate (66.7%)
• 3rd in neutral pass rate (61.3%)

39. Dak Prescott registered career lows last year in:

• Adjusted completion rate
• On-target throw rate
• PFF passing grade

40. Among 47 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Javonte Williams ranked:

• 40th in yards per carry
• 45th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 47th in yards after contact per attempt
• 47th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

41. In eight games with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb averaged 10.5 targets and ranked fourth among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

42. In seven games with Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson ranked sixth among TEs in expected PPR points per game and 10th in actual points per game.

         

Denver Broncos Projections

43. The Broncos' offensive line ranked first in PFF pass-blocking grades and ESPN's pass-block win rate last year.

44. Bo Nix made big jumps in multiple categories from the first half to second half of his rookie season.

45. Courtland Sutton's ranks among WRs:

• 12th in receiving TDs
• sixth in expected receiving TDs
• fourth in red-zone targets
• second in end-zone targets

46. Marvin Mims' 12.3 yards after catch per reception led all 115 WRs with 30+ targets. (Kavontae Turpin was next best at 8.5.)

47. Evan Engram averaged a career-low 3.2 yards after catch per reception last year. His -0.7 YAC over expected per reception ranked dead last among 33 TEs with 45+ targets.

 

Detroit Lions Projections

48. Jared Goff ranked eighth among QBs in fantasy points per game but just 15th in expected points per game. He was the fourth biggest overachiever at the position.

49. Over his first 13 games with David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs ranked 20th among RBs in expected PPR points per game and sixth in actual points per game. He ranked third in expected points and first in actual over the final four games without Montgomery.

50. David Montgomery led all RBs with 11.3 expected rushing TDs through Week 14 last year.

51. David Montgomery beat Jahmyr Gibbs last year in:

• Yards per target (9.0 to 8.2)
• Yards per route (2.24 to 1.67)
• PFF receiving grade (91.0 to 74.4)

52. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only WR to earn a 90+ PFF receiving grade in each of the last three seasons.

53. Sam LaPorta regressed in volume and efficiency from his rookie season.

   

Green Bay Packers Projections

55. Jordan Love sank from 37.2 dropbacks per game in 2023 to 30.4 in 2024. But his fantasy points per dropback actually climbed from 0.50 to 0.51.

56. Josh Jacobs' ranks among RBs:

• 4th in rushing TDs
• 1st in expected rushing TDs
• 4th in red-zone carries
• 1st in carries inside the five-yard line

57. Dontayvion Wicks led Packers WRs in:

• Red-zone targets
• End-zone targets
• Expected receiving TDs

58. Tucker Kraft ranked second among 127 WRs and TEs with 45+ targets in yards after catch per reception (9.3) and yards after catch per reception over expected (+3.1).

   

Houston Texans Projections

59. C.J. Stroud’s numbers with and without Nico Collins last year:

60. In his 12 full games, Joe Mixon ranked fourth among RBs in expected PPR points per game and sixth in actual PPR points per game.

61. Nico Collins is one of just four WRs to average 2.5+ yards per route in both 2023 and 2024. (Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, and A.J. Brown are the other three.)

   

Indianapolis Colts Projections

62. There were big shifts in the Colts' play volume and play calling in games with Anthony Richardson vs. without:

63. Anthony Richardson last year became just the third QB since 2000 to record a sub-50% completion rate on 250+ pass attempts. The other two? Tim Tebow and Akili Smith.

64. Anthony Richardson averaged 29.1 yards on designed runs in his 10 full games. That ranked second among QBs behind only Lamar Jackson's 33.5.

65. Jonathan Taylor's expected and actual PPR points per game with and without Anthony Richardson:

66. Josh Downs' ranks among 84 WRs with 50+ targets last year:

• 4th in targets per route
• 17th in yards per route
• 56th in route rate

 

Jacksonville Jaguars Projections

67. Trevor Lawrence’s ranks among 34 qualifying QBs last year:

• 33rd in completion rate
• 33rd in adjusted completion rate
• 25th in on-target pass rate

69. Brian Thomas Jr. averaged 2.45 yards per route last year. All other Jaguars WRs combined for just 1.06.

        

Kansas City Chiefs Projections

71. Patrick Mahomes finished 12th among QBs in fantasy points per game but ranked third in expected points per game.

72. Xavier Worthy caught just three of his 17 targets 20+ yards downfield last year. That 17.6% catch rate ranked 70th among 72 WRs with 10+ deep targets.

73. Travis Kelce posted career lows last year with:

• 8.5 yards per catch
• 6.2 yards per target
• 1.43 yards per route
• 3.5 yards after catch per reception
• 70.5 Pro Football Focus receiving grade

74. Travis Kelce led all TEs with 8.7 expected receiving TDs and ranked second at the position with 33 red-zone targets. He tied for just 18th with 3 TDs.

  

Las Vegas Raiders Projections

75. New OC Chip Kelly's previous four NFL offenses all ranked first in seconds per play. Two of the four finished top-two in total plays.

76. Jakobi Meyers ranked 22nd among WRs with 6.5 expected receiving TDs but tied for 48th with four actual TDs.

77. Tre Tucker ranked fifth among all WRs with 640 pass routes last year. (He ranked 58th in PPR points.)

78. Brock Bowers scored the second-most PPR points per game by a rookie TE in NFL history -- behind only Mike Ditka and just ahead of Sam LaPorta.

  

Los Angeles Chargers Projections

79. The Chargers opened the season run-heavy but threw the ball a lot more from Week 7 on. Only five teams had a higher pass rate over expected across the final 12 weeks.

80. Justin Herbert ranked sixth among QBs in total fantasy points and eighth in points per game for weeks 7-18.

81. Ladd McConkey is just one of six rookie WRs to top 2.3 yards per route over the last five seasons. He joins Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Chris Olave, and Brian Thomas Jr. Nacua, Jefferson, Chase, and Olave all averaged more PPR points per game in their second seasons than they did as rookies.

 

Los Angeles Rams Projections

82. Matthew Stafford's on-target pass rate has declined every season since 2020. His 74.3% last year ranked 23rd among 34 qualifying QBs.

83. Kyren Williams' ranks among RBs through Week 17 (he sat out Week 18):

• 2nd in rush TDs
• 2nd in expected rush TDs
• 1st in red-zone carries
• 3rd in carries inside the five-yard line

  

Miami Dolphins Projections

85. Dolphins ranks in yards per play under HC Mike McDaniel:

• 2022: 3rd
• 2023: 2nd
• 2024: 23rd

86. The Dolphins registered a 57.1% pass rate in six games without Tua Tagovailoa last year vs. 62.9% in 11 games with Tagovailoa. The latter mark would have ranked fifth for the season.

87. A league-low 6.0% of Tua Tagovailoa's passes went 20+ yards downfield last year. That was down from 13.8% and 11.2% the previous two seasons.

89. De'Von Achane scored 173.2 PPR points from receiving production last year. That was 38.9 points more than any other RB.

90. Jonnu Smith's ranks among 44 qualifying TEs:

• 5th in targets per route
• 5th in yards per route
• 5th in PFF receiving grade

91. Tyreek Hill recorded career lows last year in:

• Yards per route
• Yards after catch per reception
• PFF receiving grade
• ESPN receiver score

92. Jaylen Waddle in games with and without Tua Tagovailoa:

        

Minnesota Vikings Projections

94. Justin Jefferson's 2.50 yards per route last year was a career low ... but still ranked fifth among 84 qualifying WRs.

95. Jordan Addison has ranked 11th among WRs in expected receiving TDs in both of his first two NFL seasons.

        

New England Patriots Projections

96. Drake Maye averaged 36.3 rushing yards in his 10 full games — fourth-most among QBs. He led all QBs with 349 yards on scrambles in those 10 weeks.

97. Rhamondre Stevenson's expected and actual PPR points per game in wins vs. losses last year:

98. Ja'Lynn Polk's 0.35 yards per route last year was the lowest mark from any WR with 30+ targets since PFF started tracking the metric in 2006. Only six other WRs have finished under 0.5 yards per route:

• Kamar Aiken
• Breshad Perriman
• Kenny Britt
• Mike Thomas
• Bryant Johnson
• Darrius Heyward-Bey

99. Hunter Henry scored just two TDs last year but ranked ninth among TEs with 6.0 expected receiving TDs.

 

New Orleans Saints Projections

100. All six of new HC Kellen Moore's NFL offenses have averaged at least 65 plays per game. (For perspective, only four teams averaged 65+ plays per game last year.)

102. Chris Olave has posted a 23+% target share and 2.0+ yards per route in all three of his NFL seasons.

        

New York Giants Projections

103. Tyrone Tracy's ranks among 47 RBs with 90+ carries last year:

• 33rd in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 35th in yards after contact per attempt
• 35th in Pro Football Focus rush grade

104. Malik Nabers scored the seventh-most PPR points per game by a rookie WR in NFL history (right ahead of Ja'Marr Chase, Anquan Boldin, and Puka Nacua).

105. Malik Nabers led all WRs in both target share (32.2%) and first-read target share (42.8%).

 

New York Jets Projections

106. The Jets threw on 64.1% of their offensive snaps last year (fourth highest in the league). Here were the Bears' pass rates in Justin Fields' three seasons:

• 2021 - 55.8%
• 2022 - 43.8%
• 2023 - 51.3%

107. Justin Fields’ 50.2 rushing yards per game rank second among QBs over the last four seasons – behind only Lamar Jackson.

108. Breece Hall is one of only four RBs to average 30+ receiving yards per game in each of the last three seasons. (The other three: Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey.)

109. Garrett Wilson drew a 22.8% target share in 11 games with Davante Adams last year. He's registered a 28.5% target share in 23 games without Adams over the last two seasons.

110. Garrett Wilson has 22.5 expected TDs through three NFL seasons but just 14 actual scores.

       

Philadelphia Eagles Projections

111. The Eagles ranked bottom-two last year in:

• Pass rate
• Neutral pass rate
• Pass rate over expected
• Red zone pass rate
• Red zone pass rate over expected

112. Jalen Hurts' efficiency in full games with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert vs. games one or more of them were out:

113. Jalen Hurts' 11.7 expected rushing TDs were 4.2 more than any other QB and ranked fourth across positions.

114. Saquon Barkley's 5.8 yards per carry was the seventh-best mark among RBs with 200+ carries since the 1970 merger.

115. A.J. Brown posted career highs last year in:

• Yards per route
• PFF receiving grade
• ESPN receiver score

116. DeVonta Smith ranked 17th among WRs in PPR points per game but just 40th in expected points per game.

117. Dallas Goedert registered a career-high 22.7% targets per route last year. His 2.20 yards per route was his second-best mark.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers Projections

118. Jaylen Warren averaged just 3.1 yards per carry over the first four games of the season but 4.5 over his last 11.

119. Jaylen Warren has 0 TDs on 127 career catches. That's the fourth-most catches without a score in NFL history.

120. D.K. Metcalf's 7.6% TD rate last year was just the second time in six NFL seasons that he failed to score on 12+% of his catches.

         

San Francisco 49ers Projections

121. Brock Purdy's 8.9 yards per attempt over the last three seasons leads all 44 QBs with 500+ attempts over that span. (Tua Tagovailoa ranks second at 8.1 yards per attempt.)

123. Jauan Jennings' ranks among 104 WRs with 40+ targets last year:

• ninth in targets per route
• 14th in yards per route
• 15th in PFF receiving grade
• 10th in ESPN receiver score

  

Seattle Seahawks Projections

124. Geno Smith led all 34 qualifying QBs with an 81.8% on-target pass rate last year.

125. Ken Walker's 91.2 PFF rushing grade last year was a career best and ranked third among 47 qualifying RBs.

126. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's volume and efficiency improved from 2023 to 2024:

127. Cooper Kupp has recorded his two worst yards per route rates and PFF receiving grades over the last two seasons. He ranked 28th in yards per route and 46th in PFF grade among 84 qualifying WRs last year.

  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projections

129. Baker Mayfield’s 7.2% TD rate was the seventh highest among 228 QB seasons of 400+ pass attempts over the last 10 seasons.

130. Bucky Irving's ranks among 47 RBs with 90+ carries:

• 6th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 1st in yards after contact per attempt
• 2nd in PFF elusive rating
• 7th in PFF rushing grade

131. Mike Evans averaged a career-high 2.41 yards per route last year.

132. Cade Otton drew a 26.4% target share in three games without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He saw 16.4% of targets in his other 11 games.

        

Tennessee Titans Projections

133. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears' usage and production in 10 games together:

134. Calvin Ridley's 16.0-yard average target depth ranked fourth among 84 qualifying WRs.

  

Washington Commanders Projections

136. Jayden Daniels scored as a top-12 QB in 12 weeks. Only Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield had more top-12 finishes.

137. Jayden Daniels led all QBs with 595 yards on scrambles. He ranked third with 296 yards on designed runs.

138. Terry McLaurin ranked second among WRs with 13 TDs but just 13th with 7.7 expected receiving TDs. That 5.3-TD difference was the biggest at the position.

139. Deebo Samuel's efficiency before and after he got pneumonia last year:

  

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