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Could Michael Penix Make The Falcons A Must-Draft Offense?

Atlanta Falcons 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Departures

• The Falcons lost C Drew Dalman but return their other four starting offensive linemen from last season and last year's top 10 target earners.

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Michael Penix

Bottom Line: A Tough Path To QB1 Numbers

Penix flashed in his three games last year — particularly throwing deep — and will be Atlanta’s 2025 starter. He’ll play with a nice pass-catching corps and stout offensive line. But the Falcons project to be a run-leaning offense, and Penix won’t provide much rushing production. That’ll make it tough for him to crack QB1 territory in fantasy.

2024 Summary

Rookie Showed Brief Flash Of Promise

After sitting behind Kirk Cousins for the first 14 games of last season, Penix was called in from the bullpen for the final three outings and averaged:

• 246 passing yards
• 1.0 TDs
• 1.0 INTs
• 3.7 rushing yards
• 0.3 rushing TDs

Penix ranked 18th among QBs in total fantasy points over those three weeks. His production steadily improved, though, with weekly finishes of QB31, QB23, and QB6.

Small Sample Reveals Gunslinger Upside

Penix was an aggressive passer across his three outings, registering a 10.1-yard average target depth. That would have ranked second on the season among 34 qualifying QBs.

Largely because of that high average target depth, Penix completed just 58.0% of his passes. But he averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, which would have ranked 15th among those 34 QBs.

He was effective throwing deep, completing 43.8% of his passes 20+ yards downfield. That was good for ninth among 46 QBs with 10+ deep attempts. Penix led those 46 QBs in Pro Football Focus deep passing grade.

Penix’s 87.6 overall PFF passing grade ranked fourth among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks last season. That mark led all six qualifying rookie QBs. In fact, it was the best mark from a rookie since Robert Griffin’s 88.3 in 2021.

Impressive stuff — although it came on a small sample.

Strong Supporting Cast Helped

Penix entered a nice situation last year, with a pass-catching corps of WR Drake London, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson. Atlanta’s offensive line ranked ninth in PFF pass-blocking grade and 18th in ESPN pass block win rate.

The Falcons did lean on the run a bit more in Penix’s three games vs. Cousins’ 14.

14 Cousins games:

• -4.0% pass rate over expected
• 56.2% neutral pass rate
• 54.3% pass rate

3 Penix games:

• -4.7% pass rate over expected
• 53.9% neutral pass rate
• 51.0% pass rate

From College Star to Pro Starter

Penix was the eighth overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft after a six-year college career. He struggled with injuries across four seasons at Indiana before turning in two huge seasons at Washington.

He led the Pac-12 with 4,641 passing yards in 2022, tossing 31 TDs vs just eight TDs on 8.4 yards per attempt. Penix was even better in 2023, throwing for an FBS-high 4,903 yards with 36 TDs on 8.8 yards per attempt. He became the first player with 4,500+ yards in back-to-back seasons since Patrick Mahomes in 2015 and 2016.

Penix ranked 10th in Pro Football Focus passing grade in 2022 and climbed to sixth in 2023.

Durability Has Been A Problem

Here’s Penix’s extensive injury history:

• 2018 - right ACL tear
• 2019 - SC joint injury to his right (non-throwing) shoulder
• 2020 - another right ACL tear
• 2021 - AC joint injury to his left (throwing) shoulder

2025 Expectations

Penix in Charge From Start

Kirk Cousins remains on Atlanta’s roster as of mid-June. He’s still a likely trade candidate if the Falcons lower the asking price, but Penix is the starter regardless of Cousins’ status.

“Michael Penix Jr. is our QB, and he’ll continue being our QB,” HC Raheem Morris said in February.

Loaded Skill Group Returns Intact

The Falcons return their top 10 targets from last season, highlighted by:

• WR Drake London
• WR Darnell Mooney
• WR Ray-Ray McCloud
• TE Kyle Pitts
• RB Bijan Robinson
• RB Tyler Allgeier

It’s a strong group. Last year’s Falcons ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade.

The offensive line was solid last year, too, ranking:

• ninth in PFF pass blocking grade
• 18th in ESPN pass block win rate

Four of five starters from that unit return, with C Drew Dalman the only departure. He’ll be replaced by C Ryan Neuzil, who went undrafted back in 2021. Neuzil struggled in eight starts in place of Dalman last year and is a question mark heading into 2025. But this still projects to be a strong offensive line overall.

Coaching Staff Remains In Place

HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson return for their second season together in Atlanta. Morris is a defensive-minded HC, so Robinson runs the show on offense.

Last season was his first as an OC in the NFL. He spent the previous five years working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

The 2024 Falcons were a fast-paced, run-leaning offense. They ranked:

• ninth in pace
• eighth in plays
• 24th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

As mentioned above, Atlanta went even run-heavier in Penix’s three starts last season. Expect Robinson to let Penix throw it more in 2025 — but this still projects as a run-leaning offense centered on RB Bijan Robinson.

We currently project the Falcons for a 54.7% pass rate in 2025.

Don't Expect Much Rushing

On top of a run-leaning offense hurting Penix’s projected fantasy value, he’s also unlikely to provide much production on the ground.

He totaled just 11 rushing yards across his three games last year and averaged 8.4 yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry in college.

Penix surprised with a 4.46-second 40 time at his Pro Day, but there’s nothing else on his resume to suggest big rushing production is coming in the NFL.

Bijan Robinson

Bottom Line: A Threat To Lead All RBs In Fantasy Points

Robinson is coming off a RB4 fantasy finish and was even better over the second half of the season, ranking second in expected PPR points per game and third in actual points. Just hitting his peak at 23 years old, Robinson is as good a bet as anyone to lead RBs in fantasy points this season.

2024 Summary

Production Spiked in Second Half

Robinson ran for 1,456 yards and 14 TDs on 304 carries across 17 games last year. All three marks ranked top five league-wide.

He tacked on another 431 yards and a score on 61 catches. He ranked fifth among RBs in receiving yards and third in catches.

Robinson finished fourth at the position in total PPR points and PPR points per game. He also ranked fourth in half-PPR scoring.

Robinson was more productive over the second half of the season than the first. Here are the per-game splits:

First eight games

• 68.3 rushing yards
• 30.5 receiving yards
• 0.63 total TDs
• 17.5 PPR points per game

Final nine games

• 101.1 rushing yards
• 20.8 receiving yards
• 1.11 total TDs
• 22.4 PPR points per game

Only Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley scored more total PPR points than Robinson from Week 9 on.

Robinson Becomes A Workhorse

Robinson’s spike in production over the second half of last season was largely a result of better usage.

First eight games

• 14.5 carries per game
  • 56.0% carry share
• 4.4 targets per game
  • 12.8% target share

Final nine games

• 20.9 carries per game
  • 65.3% carry share
• 4.1 targets per game
  • 12.9% target share

Robinson also handled 81% of Atlanta’s carries inside the five-yard line over his final nine games after  drawing 57% of those attempts over the first eight.

Robinson climbed from 14th among RBs in expected PPR points per game through Week 8 to second from Week 9 on.

PFF: Robinson the Second-Best Runner

Robinson averaged 4.8 yards per carry last year — ninth among 47 RBs with 90+ carries. He ran behind a strong offensive line but did plenty of damage on his own.

Among those 47 RBs, Robinson ranked:

• 13th in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 25th in yards after contact per attempt
• 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• second in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

Robinson averaged just 7.1 yards per catch last year but hauled in 84.7% of his targets. He ranked 22nd in yards per route and fifth in PFF receiving grade among 37 qualifying RBs.

Fertile Environment for Fantasy Points

The 2024 Falcons finished 13th in points and sixth in total yards. They were a fast-paced, run-leaning offense, ranking:

• 9th in pace
• 8th in plays
• 24th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

Robinson ran behind a strong offensive line that finished:

• 6th in adjusted line yards
• 1st in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
• 20th in ESPN run block win rate

Robinson Improved as Sophomore

Robinson ranked eighth among RBs in total PPR points and 15th in points per game as a rookie in 2023. He climbed from 14.8 points per game that year to 19.9 in 2024.

Robinson also improved his Pro Football Focus rushing and receiving grades from year one to year two.

And He's Holding Up Physically

Robinson has played all 34 games across his first two NFL seasons.

His only notable injury is a dislocated elbow in 2021 at Texas that cost him the final two games of his sophomore season.

2025 Expectations

Expect Him to Stay in Control

No changes to Atlanta’s backfield this offseason. Robinson will be the lead back, with Tyler Allgeier the No. 2.

Jase McClellan is currently third on the depth chart. He played 19 offensive snaps and carried 13 times as a rookie last year. All of those carries came late in two blowout losses (Weeks 7 and 11).

QB Change Should Help

Michael Penix will be under center for the Falcons this year. He showed well in three starts at the end of his 2023 rookie campaign, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and earning an 87.6 overall PFF passing grade. That ranked fourth among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks and easily beat Kirk Cousins’ 72.3.

Penix might come with a wider range of outcomes than Cousins — but there’s a good chance he proves to be an upgrade.

Other than Penix, the Falcons return nearly the same offense they trotted out last year. WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud are back, along with TE Kyle Pitts.

Four of five starters on the offensive line return from last year, with C Drew Dalman the only departure. He’ll be replaced by C Ryan Neuzil, who went undrafted back in 2021. Neuzil struggled in eight starts in place of Dalman last year and is a question mark heading into 2025. But this still projects to be a strong offensive line overall.

Coaching Continuity = Good News For Robinson

HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson return for their second season together in Atlanta. Morris is a defensive-minded HC, so Robinson runs the show on offense.

Last season was his first as an OC in the NFL. He spent the previous five years working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

Atlanta went a bit run-heavier with Penix than Cousins last season. Expect Robinson to let Penix throw it more in 2025 — but this still projects as a run-leaning offense centered on Robinson.

The continuity in coaching is certainly a plus for Robinson’s outlook.

History Says This Could be His Best Season

Robinson will play the 2025 season at 23 years old. That’s peak age for RBs, according to our aging-curve research.

Tyler Allgeier

Bottom Line: A High-End Handcuff

Allgeier’s playing time and volume sunk over the second half of last season, as Bijan Robinson emerged as a workhorse. We’re expecting similar usage in 2025, leaving Allgeier as a handcuff only.

2024 Summary

Allgeier Proved Barely Fantasy Viable

Allgeier tallied 137 carries for 644 yards and three TDs in 17 games last year. He caught all 13 of his targets for another 88 yards.

That left Allgeier 43rd among RBs in total PPR points and 58th in points per game. He climbed to 39th in total non-PPR points and 53rd in points per game.

Allgeier scored as a top-24 PPR RB just once all season and cracked the top 35 only three times.

His Shrinking Role Hurt

Allgeier operated as the clear No. 2 RB behind Bijan Robinson all season. And the gap between them grew over the second half of the season.

Here were Allgeier’s per-game averages:

First eight games

• 30% snap rate
• 8.5 carries
  • 32.9% carry share
• 1.0 targets
  • 2.9% target share

Final nine games

• 21% snap rate
• 7.7 carries
  • 24% carry share
• 0.6 targets
  • 1.7% target share

Allgeier ranked 61st among RBs in expected PPR points per game and 57th in actual points per game over those final nine outings.

Efficiency Remained Strong, Though

Allgeier remained plenty efficient last year.

He ranked 11th among 47 qualifying RBs with 4.7 yards per carry. His 3.61 yards after contact per attempt ranked fourth — and was over a half yard better than Robinson’s 3.03.

Allgeier also beat Robinson in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.27 to 0.23). Robinson just barely edged Allgeier in rush yards over expected per attempt (+0.66 to +0.61).

Falcons Went Fast and Run-Leaning

The 2024 Falcons finished 13th in points and sixth in total yards. They were a fast-paced, run-leaning offense, ranking:

• ninth in pace
• eighth in plays
• 24th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

Allgeier ran behind a strong offensive line that finished:

• sixth in adjusted line yards
• first in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
• 20th in ESPN run block win rate

Allgeier's Production Trending Down

Allgeier’s carries per game have declined across his three NFL seasons, from 13.1 to 10.9 to 8.1. His PPR points per game have followed suit:

• 2022 -- 8.8
• 2023 -- 6.9
• 2024 -- 5.4

Allgeier has never been a big factor in the passing game, topping out at 18 catches in 2023 and averaging 0.9 per game for his career.

Clean Bill Of Health

Allgeier has not missed a game due to injury across his three NFL seasons.

2025 Expectations

The Clear No. 2 RB In Atlanta

No changes to Atlanta’s backfield this offseason. Bijan Robinson returns as lead back, with Allgeier the No. 2.

Jase McClellan is currently third on the depth chart. He played 19 offensive snaps and carried 13 times as a rookie last year. All of those carries came late in two blowout losses (Weeks 7 and 11).

New QB, Same Supporting Cast

Michael Penix will be under center for the Falcons this year. He showed well in three starts at the end of his 2023 rookie campaign, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and earning an 87.6 overall PFF passing grade. That ranked fourth among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks and easily beat Kirk Cousins’ 72.3.

Penix might come with a wider range of outcomes than Cousins — but there’s a good chance he proves to be an upgrade.

Other than Penix, the Falcons return nearly the same offense they trotted out last year. WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud are back, along with TE Kyle Pitts.

Four of five starters on the offensive line return from last year, with C Drew Dalman the only departure. He’ll be replaced by C Ryan Neuzil, who went undrafted back in 2021. Neuzil struggled in eight starts in place of Dalman last year and is a question mark heading into 2025. But this still projects to be a strong offensive line overall.

Coaches Unlikely to Alter Allgeier's Role

HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson return for their second season together in Atlanta. Morris is a defensive-minded HC, so Robinson runs the show on offense.

Last season was his first as an OC in the NFL. He spent the previous five years working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

The continuity in coaching increases the likelihood that we get the same type of workload split in Atlanta’s backfield this season.

Drake London

Bottom Line: A Safe Pick In Round 2

London is coming off a WR14 finish in PPR points per game and was even better in three games with QB Michael Penix, who will start for Atlanta this season. A target hog who’s in his prime at 24 years old, London is a safe pick in the second round of fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

London Delivered Regularly

London tallied 100 catches for 1,271 yards and nine TDs in 17 games last year. All three marks ranked top eight among WRs.

London finished fourth at the position in total PPR points and 14th in points per game. In half-PPR, he ranked fifth in total points and 15th in points per game.

London was a steady weekly producer, tallying 70+ yards and/or a TD in 12 of 17 games. He turned in:

• 4 top-12 PPR weeks
• 8 top-24 PPR weeks
• 12 top-36 PPR weeks

He Got Big Volume, Especially Near End Zone

London’s 157 targets last year ranked third among WRs, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Malik Nabers. His 28.3% target share was good for sixth at the position. And London ranked third with a 35.4% first-read target share.

He also played a big role near the end zone, ranking:

• fourth among WRs in red-zone targets (24)
• seventh in targets inside the 10 (10)
• eighth in end-zone targets (14)

London ranked fifth among WRs with 9.8 expected TDs. His 16.0 expected PPR points per game ranked ninth.

WR Fared Well on Per-Route Basis

London caught 63.3% of his targets and averaged 12.7 yards per catch last year. His 8.0 yards per target ranked a middling 47th among 89 WRs with 50+ targets.

London was much more impressive in terms of yards per route, though, ranking 11th among those 89 WRs at 2.32. And he ranked fourth in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Penix Boosted London's Production

The 2024 Falcons finished 13th in points and sixth in total yards. They were a fast-paced, run-leaning offense, ranking:

• ninth in pace
• eighth in plays
• 24th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

QB Kirk Cousins started the first 14 games of the season but was benched for QB Michael Penix for the final three. London’s usage and production spiked with Penix.

14 Games with Cousins

• 8.5 targets (25.9% share)
• 5.6 catches
• 65.6 yards
• 0.5 TDs

Three Games with Penix

• 13.0 targets (39.0% share)
• 7.3 catches
• 117.3 yards
• 0.7 TDs

London led all WRs in expected PPR points per game over those final three weeks. He ranked second in actual points per game.

Third Year Marked His Best Yet

London tallied 10.7 PPR points per game in his first two NFL seasons before breaking out for 16.5 last year.

His 28.3% target share last year was a career high — although London registered a 28.2% share as a rookie in 2022.

London also posted career highs last year in yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

London Played Through Injuries

London has missed just one game as a pro, with a groin injury in 2023. He’s dealt with a multitude of minor issues, though, including a knee injury in the 2022 preseason and hip and hamstring issues last year.

London also fractured an ankle during his final season at USC in 2021.

2025 Expectations

Still the Alpha In Atlanta

The Falcons made no significant additions or subtractions to the pass-catching corps this offseason. London should remain the clear alpha in the passing game, with WR Darnell Mooney, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson behind him.

Penix In, London Up?

Michael Penix will be under center for the Falcons this year. He showed well in three starts at the end of his 2023 rookie campaign, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and earning an 87.6 overall PFF passing grade. That ranked fourth among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks and easily beat Kirk Cousins’ 72.3.

Penix might come with a wider range of outcomes than Cousins — but there’s a good chance he proves to be an upgrade.

And, considering London’s production in Penix’s three games last year, the QB change could be excellent news for London’s fantasy value.

Coaching Continuity Can Only Help

HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson return for their second season together in Atlanta. Morris is a defensive-minded HC, so Robinson runs the show on offense.

Last season was his first as an OC in the NFL. He spent the previous five years working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

The Falcons’ pass rate dipped to 51.0% with Penix last year vs. 54.3% with Cousins at the helm. Expect Robinson to let Penix throw it more in 2025, although this still figures to be a run-leaning offense.

We currently project the Falcons for a 54.7% pass rate in 2025.

Still Trending Up

London is coming off a big season but might still be on the ascent. He’ll play the 2025 season at 24 years old. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs, on average, don’t peak until age 25 or 26.

Darnell Mooney

Bottom Line: Penix Could Make Mooney a WR3

Mooney finished 27th among WRs in total PPR points and 39th in points per game last year. He’ll be in a very similar role as Atlanta’s No. 2 WR this season. QB Michael Penix adds some unknown to Mooney’s situation — but there’s a good chance he’s an upgrade over Kirk Cousins. Consider Mooney a WR4 with upside well into WR3 territory.

2024 Summary

Mooney Flirted with WR3 Value

Mooney caught 64 balls for 992 yards and five TDs across 16 games last year. He missed the season finale with a shoulder injury.

Through Week 17, Mooney ranked 27th in total PPR points and 39th in points per game. He was a relatively reliable weekly producer, finishing as a top-36 PPR WR in nine of 16 outings. That included four top-12 scoring weeks.

His Volume Proved Mixed

Mooney was a full-time player for the Falcons, running a route on 94% of the pass plays in his 16 games.

His 106 targets ranked second on the team behind Drake London and 30th among WRs league-wide. Mooney drew 20.3% of Atlanta’s targets in his 16 games.

He led the team with 22 targets of 20+ yards. Only 12 WRs saw more last year.

Mooney didn’t see much action in scoring territory, though. His 20 red-zone targets tied for 41st among WRs, and his three end-zone targets tied for 83rd. Mooney’s 3.8 expected receiving TDs ranked 56th at the position.

He finished 49th in expected PPR points per game.

Deep Efficiency Boosted Numbers

Mooney caught 60.4% of his targets last year and averaged a career-best 15.5 yards per catch. That ranked 10th among 84 qualifying WRs. His 21 receptions of 20+ yards were also a career high and were second-most among WRs (behind only Justin Jefferson).

Mooney finished 30th among those 84 WRs in yards per route and 38th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Target Share Dipped in Small Penix Sample

The 2024 Falcons finished 13th in points and sixth in total yards. They were a fast-paced, run-leaning offense, ranking:

• ninth in pace
• eighth in plays
• 24th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

QB Kirk Cousins started the first 14 games of the season but was benched for QB Michael Penix for the final three. 

Mooney posted 5-82-0 and 2-37-0 lines in Penix’s first two starts and missed the third. He drew 11 targets on a 17.7% share with Penix — down from a 20.7% share with Cousins.

Mooney's Career Inconsistent to Date

Mooney followed a 61-631-4 rookie-year line in Chicago with a breakout 81-catch, 1,055-yard second season in 2021. He finished 23rd among WRs in total PPR points and 33rd in points per game that year.

Mooney disappointed the following two seasons, though. He missed five games and sunk to 41.1 yards per game in 2022. Then he mustered just 27.6 yards per game in 2023. 

Those were run-heavy Bears offenses piloted by QB Justin Fields. But Mooney ranked 49th among 80 qualifying WRs in 2022 Pro Football Focus receiving grade and 73rd out of 80 in 2023.

Beward of the Injury History

Mooney missed Chicago’s playoff loss as a rookie in 2020 with an ankle injury. He played all 17 games in 2021 but has missed time in each of the last three seasons:

• 2022 -- Five games with an ankle injury
• 2023 -- Two games with a concussion
• 2024 -- One game with a shoulder injury

2025 Expectations

Mooney's Locked in as the No. 2

Mooney returns to Atlanta for the second season of his three-year, $39 million deal.

The Falcons made no significant additions or subtractions to their pass-catching corps this offseason, so Mooney should retain a very similar role as a full-time player and the No. 2 WR behind Drake London.

Penix Raises Overall Ceiling

Michael Penix will be under center for the Falcons this year. He showed well in three starts at the end of his 2023 rookie campaign, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and earning an 87.6 overall PFF passing grade. That ranked fourth among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks and easily beat Kirk Cousins’ 72.3.

Penix might come with a wider range of outcomes than Cousins — but there’s a good chance he proves to be an upgrade.

Mooney’s volume and production was down in his two games with Penix last year, but that’s too small a sample to worry about. 

In fact, Penix was very good throwing downfield last year, leading 46 qualifying QBs in Pro Football Focus deep passing grade. That should make him a good fit with Mooney.

Scheme Stability Removes a Potential Hurdle

HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson return for their second season together in Atlanta. Morris is a defensive-minded HC, so Robinson runs the show on offense.

Last season was his first as an OC in the NFL. He spent the previous five years working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

The Falcons’ pass rate dipped to 51.0% with Penix last year vs. 54.3% with Cousins at the helm. Expect Robinson to let Penix throw it more in 2025, although this still figures to be a run-leaning offense.

We currently project the Falcons for a 54.7% pass rate in 2025.

Mooney Remains in His Prime

Mooney averaged a career-best 9.4 yards per target and 1.88 yards per route last year. 

Turning 28 in October, he should still be in his prime years. Our aging-curve research shows that WRs tend to produce at 96-100% of their peak at age-28.

Kyle Pitts

Bottom Line: There's Upside, But Don't Count On Him

Pitts’ volume and efficiency have been in free fall since a strong rookie season. He’s finished outside the top-16 TEs in PPR points per game in each of the last three years. Turning 25 in October, there’s still time for Pitts to turn things around. But he should not be drafted as more than a mid-range TE2.

2024 Summary

Pitts' Production Proves Highly Volatile

Pitts caught 47 balls for 602 yards and four TDs across 17 games last year. He finished 15th among TEs in total PPR points but just 25th in points per game.

Pitts turned in a pair of top-five scoring weeks and finished as a top-12 TE six times. But he had seven weeks outside the top 30. Six of those came over his final nine games.

Role Shifted Under New Staff

Pitts played more traditional in-line TE last year than he did in any of his first three seasons. Still, he ran just 38.2% of his routes from in-line. 41.3% of his routes came from the slot and 20.5% out wide.

Pitts also registered a career-low 8.7-yard average target depth last year, although that was still sixth highest among 36 TEs with 40+ targets.

Pitts’ 74 targets last year ranked fourth on the Falcons and 16th among TEs. But he ranked just 23rd at the position with 4.4 targets per game. Pitts’ 13.2% target share also ranked 23rd.

He finished 24th at the position in expected PPR points per game.

Modest Effiency Gains Didn't Help Much

The lower average target depth helped Pitts record a career-best 63.5% catch rate last year. He still averaged a strong 12.8 yards per catch. His 8.1 yards per target was his best mark since his rookie year and ranked 12th among 36 qualifying TEs.

Pitts ranked just 28th among those 36 TEs in targets per route, though. That pushed his yards per route down to 1.33, which ranked 23rd. Pitts finished 29th in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grade.

Pitts Underwhelmed Regardless Of QB

The 2024 Falcons finished 13th in points and sixth in total yards. They were a fast-paced, run-leaning offense, ranking:

• ninth in pace
• eighth in plays
• 24th in pass rate
• 17th in neutral pass rate

QB Kirk Cousins started the first 14 games of the season but was benched for QB Michael Penix for the final three. 

Pitts totaled 10 targets on a 10.0% share with Penix — down from 13.9% with Cousins.

Pitts’ receiving lines with Penix:

• 1-7-0
• 4-44-1
• 2-15-0

And His Decline Has Continued

Pitts’ target share has now declined in three straight seasons. His yards per route has declined every season since his 2021 rookie campaign. Here are the numbers:

Not surprisingly, Pitts’ fantasy production has also gone south. His finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2021 -- 12th
• 2022 -- 24th
• 2023 -- 18th
• 2024 -- 25th

Did Knee Injury Ruin Him?

Pitts has played all 17 games in three of his four NFL seasons. He missed seven games in 2022 — one with a hamstring injury and six with a right knee injury. That was originally reported as a torn MCL, but Pitts later revealed that he also tore his PCL.

Pitts had surgery in November 2022 and missed most of the 2023 offseason program. He played every game in 2023 but said that the knee was still an issue throughout the year.

2025 Expectations

Pitts Remains Team's Top TE

The Falcons made no significant changes to their pass-catching corps this offseason.

Pitts should remain the clear lead TE but will battle for targets with WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud, plus RB Bijan Robinson.

Can Penix Get Pitts Going?

Michael Penix will be under center for the Falcons this year. He showed well in three starts at the end of his 2023 rookie campaign, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and earning an 87.6 overall PFF passing grade. That ranked fourth among 47 QBs with 100+ dropbacks and easily beat Kirk Cousins’ 72.3.

Penix might come with a wider range of outcomes than Cousins — but there’s a good chance he proves to be an upgrade.

Same Coaching Staff ... Bad News?

HC Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson return for their second season together in Atlanta. Morris is a defensive-minded HC, so Robinson runs the show on offense.

Last season was his first as an OC in the NFL. He spent the previous five years working under Sean McVay in Los Angeles.

The Falcons’ pass rate dipped to 51.0% with Penix last year vs. 54.3% with Cousins at the helm. Expect Robinson to let Penix throw it more in 2025, although this still figures to be a run-leaning offense.

We currently project the Falcons for a 54.7% pass rate in 2025.

It's Not Over Yet

Pitts turns 25 in October — peak age for TEs, according to our aging-curve research.

We’re not ready to completely throw in the towel on him. But Pitts’ downward trends in volume, efficiency, and fantasy production are obviously worrisome.

Where Do The Falcons Land In The Rankings?

How do these Falcons fit into your draft plan? Only one way to find out: Get a customized fantasy football cheat sheet.

The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and applies them to your league's exact scoring rules and starting requirements. The result is a set of rankings custom crafted to crush your draft.

Fire up your Draft War Room now!

Next Up

Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Forecast: 2025's Breakout Offense?

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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks sixth among 158 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.