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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 11 Usage

1. Is D’Andre Swift In Trouble?

The numbers above make it look like the Bears rolled out a near even timeshare in the backfield under new OC Thomas Brown. That's true to some extent -- but, as always, context is key.

Johnson controlled short-yardage and passing-down work in Week 11. Per Pro Football Focus, he played 8 of 11 short-yardage snaps, 7 of 9 third-down snaps, and all 6 two-minute snaps.

Five of Johnson's 10 carries came in short-yardage situations (within 3 yards of a first down or TD). Otherwise, Swift out-carried Johnson 13 to 5. Early-down snaps were 37 to 9 in Swift's favor.

So Swift remains Chicago's clear lead back for now. Of course, losing goal-line and passing-down snaps is a significant drain on his fantasy value. Coupled with the second-toughest remaining RB schedule, Swift is no better than a low-end RB2 going forward. Johnson is a TD-dependent RB3.

2. The Turners Love Brock Bowers

The biggest change to the Raiders' offense in the first game under OC Scott Turner and offensive assistant Norv Turner? An even greater emphasis on Bowers.

The rookie was already playing a monster role. But it went to another level in Week 11. Bowers' route rate, target share, and first-read target share were all season highs. In fact, the 52% first-read target share led all players for the week, per Fantasy Points Data.

"Brock Bowers is a tremendous talent," HC Antonio Pierce said on Monday. "His numbers are on a historic rate and we want to continue that. Give the ball to your best players, keep feeding them until the defense figures out how to stop it."

Bowers will be battling with Travis Kelce for the TE scoring lead the rest of the way. And my money is on Bowers.

3. Chase Brown: League-Winner

Brown has played a role without RB Zack Moss over the last three weeks that even Christian McCaffrey is jealous of. 

Brown has averaged a whopping 27.0 expected PPR points per game since Week 9. That leads all RBs by 3.7 points -- and is 6.5 more than McCaffrey averaged in his huge 2023 season.

Brown has converted that usage into 23.5 actual PPR points per game, which ranks third behind only Saquon Barkley and Chuba Hubbard.

We'll see if RB Khalil Herbert is able to carve out any kind of role going forward. But don't expect him to steal enough to knock Brown from the RB1 ranks. And if Herbert doesn't become a factor, Brown could be a top-5 RB the rest of the way.

4. Jameis Winston: WR Kingmaker

Our hero, Jameis Winston, is giving us not one ... not two ... but three guys with WR1-level usage.

Winston has chucked it 133 times at a 10.2-yard average target depth across his three starts. That's produced 1,357 air yards -- easily a league high.

It's propelled Tillman and Jeudy to top-12 WR production. Moore ranks 25th at the position in PPR points with Winston.

The Browns face the toughest remaining WR schedule. The brunt of that comes in the next three weeks vs. Pittsburgh, at Denver, and at Pittsburgh.

But as long as Winston remains under center, there's simply too much opportunity in this passing game for the WRs to fail. Jeudy and Tillman look like weekly WR2s; Moore a WR3.

5. Josh Jacobs’ Role Is Better Than You Think

I wrote after Week 6 about Jacobs distancing himself from Green Bay's other RBs. That gap has only widened since.

Over the last three games, Jacobs has handled 56 of the team's 72 RB carries. And the Packers are, surprisingly, the third run-heaviest offense in terms of pass rate over expected during that stretch.

Throw in a 12% target share, and Jacobs has tallied the 16th most expected PPR points per game and the fifth most actual PPR points per game since Week 8.

Jacobs looks like a fringe RB1 in fantasy lineups the rest of the way.

6. Nick Chubb's Worrisome Usage

Chubb took a nice jump in usage from Week 7 to Week 8. But he's headed in the opposite direction since RB Jerome Ford returned two games ago. Chubb has totaled 26 carries and one target across those two outings, ranking 33rd among RBs in expected PPR points.

HC Kevin Stefanski said Chubb's reduced snaps in Week 11 were due, in part, to the short turnaround to this Thursday night's game vs. the Steelers. We can expect Chubb's early-down snaps to rebound going forward.

But he's doing very little in the passing game. And, despite averaging a season-best 4.5 yards per carry against a bad Saints defense last week, Chubb is still at just 3.1 for the season.

So we've got an inefficient, early-down grinder on one of the league's pass-heaviest offenses. Sounds like a TD-dependent RB3.

7. DeAndre Hopkins Remains Limited

Here's what I wrote in this space last week:

"If there's ever a spot for Kansas City to unleash Hopkins, it'd be the Week 11 showdown vs. the Bills, which could very well determine home-field advantage in the playoffs."

Hopkins was not unleashed vs. Buffalo. In fact, his route rate sunk for the second straight week.

It looks like the Chiefs plan to keep Hopkins' playing time capped -- just like the Titans did. Hopkins has earned a target on a decent 21% of his routes. But with the limited routes, he's seen just 15% of Chiefs targets over the last three weeks. He ranks 30th among WRs in expected PPR points per game during that stretch.

Unless his playing time grows -- and there's no reason to expect it to at this point -- Hopkins is stuck in WR3 territory.

8. Is Aaron Jones No Longer A Workhorse?

Jones' snap rate and carry share were his lowest marks in a healthy game since at least Week 2. His route rate was a season low.

It's certainly worth noting that Jones was limited in practice throughout the week with the rib injury he suffered in Week 10. But he was left off the final injury report. And he got the final three carries in the 23-13 win over Tennessee.

Jones, of course, has been a committee back throughout his career. And he opened this season in a committee, playing 58% of the offensive snaps and handling a 46% carry share over the first two weeks.

We've also seen Jones' efficiency decline lately. He's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry over his last four games, down from 5.2 over his first six.

My guess is that Jones' role going forward looks much closer to what we saw in Week 11 than the workhorse role he was playing before. That makes him more of a mid-range RB2 than the borderline RB1 we thought he was a month ago.

9. Broncos Going With Hot Hand In Backfield

This quote from OC Joe Lombardi last week had a lot of people fired up about Estime heading into Week 11.

But the two most important words from Lombardi were "hot hand."

Williams was the hot hand vs. Atlanta, getting the start and producing runs of 10 and 5 yards on Denver's opening possession. He had three more runs of 12+ yards in the contest.

Expect this to remain a fluid backfield going forward. We'll probably get games with Estime and maybe even Jaleel McLaughlin leading in carries. But Williams remains the top fantasy option in the backfield because:

1. He's getting the first chance to establish the hot hand.
2. He continues to lead in passing-game usage.

That said, your best bet is to avoid this backfield. There's a lot more downside than upside to all Broncos RBs.

10. T.J. Hockenson Takes A Step Back

Our latest reminder that comebacks from significant injuries aren't always linear. After increased usage in Week 10, Hockenson took a step back in playing time and target share this past week, setting season lows in both departments.

HC Kevin O'Connell said Monday that "there’s really no set number on T.J. Hockenson’s snaps." But it's tough to believe last year's knee injury isn't having at least some impact on his playing time.

Hockenson will likely get back to a full role at some point this season. But we can't predict exactly when it'll happen.

For now, consider Hockenson a volatile, low-end TE1.

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.