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TD Regression Watch: McCaffrey, Jacobs, And Mahomes About to Pop

There’s a path for Christian McCaffrey to be even more dominant going forward.

Josh Jacobs is the favorite to lead the league in rushing scores the rest of the way.

And Patrick Mahomes is about to blow up.

Those are three of the takeaways from my deep dive into team-level TD production through five weeks.

How TD Rates Point to Hidden Fantasy Value

NFL offenses typically score a little less than two-thirds of their TDs via the pass. That share has hovered between 60-70% over the last 10 seasons. This year: 63.6%.

We can generally expect teams to regress toward that territory. 

Of course, not all offenses operate the same near the end zone. Some offenses throw more inside the scoring zone; others lean on the run. So we should expect their pass/run TD splits to tilt accordingly.

How Are Teams Scoring So Far This Season?

Let’s look at each team’s ...

• Percentage of offensive TDs to come via the pass
• Pass rate inside the 10-yard line
• Pass rate inside the 20-yard line

We’ll then highlight offenses that project for a higher percentage of rush or pass TDs going forward. And then break down a handful of players set for positive TD regression based on this data.

Offenses 'Due' for More Rush TDs

49ers

• 1st in pass TD share
• 14th in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 15th in pass rate inside 20-yard line

Chargers

• Tied 3rd in pass TD share
• 15th in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 19th in pass rate inside 20-yard line

Rams

• 5th in pass TD share
• 13th in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 9th in pass rate inside 20-yard line

Buccaneers

• 6th in pass TD share
• 27th in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 10th in pass rate inside the 20-yard line

Steelers

• Tied 9th in pass TD share
• 29th in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 28th in pass rate inside 20-yard line

Packers

• Tied 13th in pass TD share
• 31st in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 24th in pass rate inside the 20-yard line

Offenses 'Due' for More Pass TDs

Jaguars

• Tied 26th in pass TD share
• 2nd in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 18th in pass rate inside the 20-yard line

Patriots

• 25th in pass TD share
• Tied 11th in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 16th in pass rate inside the 20-yard line

Chiefs

• Tied 23rd in pass TD share
• 6th in pass rate inside 10-yard line
• 2nd in pass rate inside the 20-yard line

Positive TD Regression Candidates

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

McCaffrey easily leads all RBs in PPR points per game. And he has done it without a single rushing TD. (He does have 3 receiving scores.)

It hasn’t been for lack of opportunity. The 49ers have been a balanced offense inside the 20- and 10-yard lines. McCaffrey ranks fourth league-wide in red-zone carries, third in carries inside the 10, and sixth in expected rushing TDs.

It’s tough to imagine McCaffrey’s absurd receiving production holding all season. But a dip there should at least be partially offset by rushing TDs.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers

Jacobs ranked fourth league-wide with 15 rushing scores last year. He’s pacing for 17 TDs this season, scoring four times through his first 4 games.

Yet he still looks like a positive regression candidate. 

The Packers rank just 18th in percentage of TDs to come on the ground, despite ranking second in run rate inside the 10-yard line and ninth in run rate inside the 20.

Last year’s Packers scored 45% of their TDs on the ground. And they’re running it at an even higher rate inside the 10 this season.

Jacobs already ranks second in carries inside the 10- and 5-yard lines (despite already having his bye week). He’s a legit favorite to lead the league in rushing TDs from Week 6 on.

Kyren Williams, RB, Rams

The Sean McVay-led Rams have typically finished above league average in rushing-TD share. That hasn’t been the case so far this year.

A key change in Los Angeles this year: The addition of WR Davante Adams, who has long been an elite TD scorer.

But the Rams have often been loaded at WR in the McVay era. And they rank near the middle of the pack in pass rate inside the 20- and 10-yard lines.

I’d expect more rushing TDs going forward for RB Kyren Williams, who has handled seven of the Rams’ 13 carries inside the 10-yard line and four of seven inside the 5. Williams scored on 4.8% of his carries across 2023 and 2024 but has scored on just 1.2% so far this season.

QB Matthew Stafford would be the victim of more rushing TDs. His current 6.0% passing TD rate is 1.4 percentage points above his career average heading into this year and 1.1 percentage points above his average over his first four seasons with the Rams.

But Stafford is playing lights-out right now and has one of the best WR duos in the league. I’m not betting on major regression here.

Jaylen Warren & Kenneth Gainwell, RBs, Steelers

QB Aaron Rodgers has always been a high-TD-rate guy. In fact, his career 6.1% TD rate ranks second only to Lamar Jackson since the NFL merger.

That’s largely been due to his teams going pass-heavy near the end zone. That has not been the case with the 2025 Steelers, who rank bottom-5 in pass rate inside the 20- and 10-yard lines.

Rodgers’ TD production so far this year has come on efficiency. He’s tied for seventh in TDs inside the red zone, despite ranking 24th in red-zone pass attempts. Four of Rodgers’ six end-zone targets have turned into scores, a 67% conversion rate vs. the league-wide average of 46%.

Rodgers will likely cool off, opening up rushing TD opportunities for the RBs. Warren is the most likely beneficiary. In their three games together so far this season, Warren out-carried Gainwell 12-2 inside the red zone and 4-2 inside the 5-yard line.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

The Chiefs, as usual, have been one of the pass-heaviest offenses near the end zone, ranking top 6 in pass rate inside the 10- and 20-yard lines.

That typically lands them near the top of the league in percentage of TDs to come via the pass. But they sit just 23rd in that metric through five weeks.

Expect regression to hit hard here. Mahomes leads the league with 17 pass attempts inside the 10-yard line but sits tied for just ninth with 4 TDs inside the 10. 

His current 4.4% passing TD rate is in the same neighborhood as the past two seasons. But Mahomes threw a score on 6.5% of his attempts over his first five seasons.

I wouldn’t bet on him getting back to that level without Tyreek Hill or prime Travis Kelce. But I do expect Mahomes’ TD production to spike the rest of the way, especially with WR Rashee Rice returning next week.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars

The numbers say Lawrence should start throwing more TDs. The Jaguars rank second in pass rate inside the 10-yard line but tied for just 26th in percentage of TDs to come via the pass. 

Lawrence ranks:

• 4th in red-zone pass attempts
• 3rd in pass attempts inside the 10
• 9th in passes into the end zone
• 5th in expected passing TDs
• Tied for 19th in actual passing TDs

The issue is that Lawrence has been an underwhelming TD producer throughout his career. His 3.4% TD rate from 2021-2024 ranked 42nd among 51 qualifying QBs. His TD rate so far this year: 3.6%.

Lawrence will undoubtedly have the opportunity to throw a bunch of scores the rest of this season. Whether he’s able to capitalize is a fair question.

Next Up

Week 6 Waiver Wire Pickups: Michael Carter Takes Control

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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.