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What is Wrong with Tank Dell?

The Downfall of Tank Dell

Dell’s path from FCS Alabama A&M to JUCO and finally to G5 Houston was unique, but he showed football talent all along the way.

His explosion and footwork made separation easy in college, but could he really hold up in the NFL at only 5’8 and 165 pounds?

The new Texans regime thought so, making him a surprise third-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Dell immediately made an impact, joining the starting lineup in Week 2.

A Dec. 3 broken fibula cut his season short, but his future seemed bright.

Good Early Production

Dell ended his rookie year as a top-20 WR in points per game, tied to fellow rookie C.J. Stroud for the foreseeable future.

Then the Texans traded for WR Stefon Diggs, putting Dell’s targets in danger.

Somehow the entire Texans’ passing game took a step back in 2024. But no WR's output has suffered as much as Dell's.

Why has his 2024 been so horrendous? 

Let’s explore ...

The Scheme

OC Bobby Slowik comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, and the Texans run a similar scheme. In 2024, the WR roles have been fairly rigid.

Nico Collins is the traditional "X" WR, playing the Brandon Aiyuk role. His route tree is the group's most expansive and creates mismatches for the opponent's best corner.

Tank Dell plays the Deebo Samuel role, the "Z" flanker who mostly stays outside but goes in motion to create mismatches.

Diggs played the Jauan Jennings (pre-Aiyuk injury) slot role, very different from his X role with the Bills last season. 

In 2023, Dell actually got some work as the X as well, and Slowik seemed more comfortable moving his WRs among roles.

With Collins' breakout and Diggs' arrival, Dell hasn’t gotten many opportunities as the X. Even after Diggs tore an ACL, Slowik has seemed more intent on keeping the roles consistent.

2023 vs. 2024

The fantasy production has obviously dipped, but let’s compare Dell’s numbers over his two seasons to see if there are any other clear divides.

There are slight dips in everything, but none of the numbers stand out as particularly egregious.

The YAC vs. Expected YAC was probably the most surprising. Dell is gaining more YAC per catch in 2024, but he is falling short of the expected yards after catch. 

Last season, Dell picked up more YAC per reception than expected.

These give some clues to look for on film to try and explain the why.

One major piece of context was last season's broken fibula.

Post-Injury Effect?

We see plenty of ACL tears and high-ankle sprains in football. But a fully broken leg is more rare.

The past four seasons have produced just eight leg fractures league wide.

Two recent examples of fibula fractures similar to Dell's:

• Mark Andrews in November 2023
• Tony Pollard in January 2023

Here are their numbers for the season before the injury and the season after:

Mark Andrews

Tony Pollard

It's a small sample, but both dipped after the injury.

Could the recovery from his broken fibula be slowing Dell down?

Let’s dig into some film from 2023 and compare it to 2024.

Film Review

Slowik loves to use the Levels concept, especially out of a Bunch formation. The depth of each WR changes each time to keep the defense off-balance. 

This play from last year comes against zone coverage with Dell running an out route at the deep level. 

Stroud and Dell both identify the single-high safety and adjust for a deeper pass. 

Stroud hits Dell nearly in stride, on the same page for the play.

The following example -- from this year -- also comes against zone coverage. And Dell once again runs an out, but at the mid level.

The corner peels off of the deep level, not giving a deeper pass like the previous example, but it gives Dell an opening on his route toward the sideline.

He runs the route toward the inside of the formation, perhaps not recognizing the zone, rounding the route on the inside of the shallow coverage. 

Stroud anticipates Dell accelerating and using his speed to get to the sideline, and the QB targets him there.

However, Dell’s lack of a sharp cut and seemingly slower speed on the route lead to an incompletion.

Perhaps there was some miscommunication. But Dell appears to be a step slower than his 2023 film. And Stroud appears to miss because he anticipated that speed and explosiveness.

This has been a common Dell route against man coverage (or against a soft zone like this one). He runs a quick out, giving Stroud an easy throw and allowing for YAC if the safety plays back.

Dell makes a sharp cut into the out and Stroud releases the pass just after the break for an easy few yards. 

This year, those types of plays just haven’t connected. Similar to the Levels concept, Dell can get open. But there is some barrier stopping the catch.

He doesn’t take a crisp route and cut, but instead shakes the CB. 

There again appears to be some type of miscommunication or lack of understanding from Stroud of what spot on the field Dell will get to on this route.

The hitch is another common route for Dell to allow him for YAC.

The goal is to identify either a hole in zone coverage or off-man to get a quick completion to Dell, allowing him to avoid contact when turning up the field. 

If he does that, the other WRs have cleared out enough for a potential big play.

On this example, Dell picks up an extra 5 yards, using his athleticism to avoid contact.

A large number of routes by Dell this year have been earmarked by slipping, stumbling, or just running it poorly. 

What should be an easy sideline outside hitch goes wrong because Dell turns inside and has to dive to adjust to the outside throw made by Stroud.

This could also be a miscommunication. But there are too many examples of throws going to the wrong spot on scripted Dell routes. That generally falls on the WR.

Conclusions

The film shows some clear miscommunications in 2024 that didn’t happen in 2023, but that can’t be the only thing taking Dell from WR17 to WR59.

His footwork, quickness and explosion have definitely taken a hit. Stroud seems to expect Dell to hit points on the field like he did in 2023, and Dell often falls short of those marks.

The broken fibula certainly didn't help, but it's tough to know how much that's contributing.

Any continued loss of athleticism would be especially harmful for Dell's production, given his diminutive size and tendency to play outside.

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

If the lack of production is in part due to Dell’s recovery, he is certainly not a sell at this point.

But, will he make a full recovery?

Pollard is now almost two years removed from his broken fibula. Though his production hasn’t drastically improved in his second season, Pollard’s film shows a more explosive and effective runner this year.

Once again, it's a small sample, but we did see Deebo Samuel break his fibula in college and recover two years after for NFL success as a rookie.

Dell is certainly a hold to see if he can improve in 2025.

Dell's value of 33 points on our PPR Dynasty Trade Value Chart stands about equal to a 2025 mid second-round pick.

That's a fair price, but I'm not buying right now. Dell's size could limit him going forward. And we'll need to see rebounds in his athleticism and Stroud's play.

But watch him in the offseason and training camp. If Dell appears to have his explosion and quickness back, take advantage and buy him.

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.