Brian Thomas Jr. - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

When Calvin Ridley was not re-signed, the Jaguars were pigeonholed into addressing WR in the draft. Thomas was the ideal scenario with his red-zone upside.

Thomas led the FBS in receiving TDs last year and is a 99th-percentile athlete with great size.

He’s unlikely to get a ton of targets as a rookie, though, so he’s unlikely to be an attractive weekly fantasy starter. He is ultimately more of a WR4 and might be overdrafted based on his draft capital and athletic profile.

What We Learned Last Year

• Thomas was selected by the Jaguars with the 23rd overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
• He played three years at LSU.
• Thomas posted career-best numbers in 2023:
  • 86 targets
  • 68 catches
  • 1,177 receiving yards
  • 17 receiving TDs
• Thomas’ breakout age at 20.9 is 38th percentile among drafted WRs.
• He was near the top of the leaderboards in the SEC:
  • Fourth in yards per game (90.5)
  • Sixth in receptions per game (5.2)
  • Seventh in yards per catch (17.31)
  • First in receiving TDs
• Thomas was named second-team All-SEC.
• He measured in at 6 '3, 209 pounds at the NFL Combine and registered an outstanding 4.33 40-yard time. He earned a 9.84 Relative Athletic Score.

What to Expect in 2024

• Thomas will enter his first season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
• Jacksonville lost WR Calvin Ridley in free agency but added free-agent Gabriel Davis. He, Thomas, and Christian Kirk will be the top three WRs. We’ll see who stays on the field in two-WR sets.
• The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second-highest in the division.
• Thomas enters his first season at 21 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Thomas’ profile will produce at 77-80% of his peak value at age-21.