Jacksonville's preseason opener found WR Christian Kirk excluded from two-WR sets. The Jaguars opened Saturday's game against the Chiefs with Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. as the WRs in "12" personnel (two TEs) for the first two plays. Kirk entered for three-WR sets and ultimately played seven snaps vs. nine for Thomas and Davis. (QB Trevor Lawrence played nine as well.) Thomas and Davis ran five routes to Kirk's four. Davis drew the only two WR targets before the first team left.
This is the same way things went for Kirk to open 2023, when Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones lined up ahead of him in two-WR sets.
In season, Kirk's snap share dipped to about 77% vs. 88% in 2022 (his first Jaguars season), according to Pro Football Reference.
Kirk also checked in third among Jacksonville WRs last year in expected PPR points per game. He tied for just 40th at the position vs. Ridley tying for 14th and Jones ranking 27th.
Kirk tied for 33rd among WRs in PPR points per game, though he climbed to WR24-26 range if you remove the Week 13 contest he left after just one play.
Ultimately, the role clearly limits Kirk's fantasy upside, as the team prefers to go with taller outside types in two-wide formations.
Kirk remains signed through 2025, though the dead cap number decreases from $22 million to $13.5 million for his final year.
We'll see whether that makes him a potential cap casualty ahead of next season. We're not altering his dynasty ranking on this particular bit of news, though.
Davis and Thomas (arguably) look like bigger winners here than Kirk does a loser -- at least vs. our rankings.
All three WRs show as solid-to-good values by current PPR ADP, according to our Market Index.
Davis stands out as easily the best draft value by virtue of his WR63 ADP -- 14 spots behind Thomas at the position.
Even Kirk, though, looks fine at his mid-WR3 ADP.
There's potential for Thomas to climb in ADP -- and perhaps our rankings -- if his usage and practice reports continue to move positively.
I wouldn't bet on significant market moves for Davis or Kirk unless we get some big news or an especially good/bad performance.
Fantasy drafters are generally tired of Davis' volatile production. And Kirk's long been a decent but limited talent.
Beware of chasing the rookie too high just based on "new toy" excitement.
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