Alec Pierce Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Pierce caught 37 balls for 824 yards and seven TDs in 16 games last year. All three marks were career highs.

Pierce ranked 43rd among WRs in total PPR points and 54th in points per game; 39th in total half-PPR points and 52nd in points per game.

Although he flashed weekly upside, Pierce was nearly impossible to rely on in fantasy lineups. He had four top-12 scoring weeks but finished outside the top 50 WRs seven times.

Usage & Role

Pierce played 80% of the Colts’ offensive snaps last season, registering a 75+% snap rate in 12 of 16 games. His 81% route rate ranked 47th among WRs.

But Pierce finished just 60th at the position with 69 targets. He was largely used as a deep threat, with a 22.8-yard average target depth that led all 84 WRs with 50+ targets. Only D.K. Metcalf had more deep targets than Pierce’s 30.

Efficiency Metrics

Pierce caught just 53.6% of his targets last year — not a surprise considering the huge average target depth.

But his 22.3 yards per catch led 84 qualifying WRs. So did his 11.9 yards per target.

Pierce drew a target on just 15% of his targets, though — 86th among WRs. That left him 34th among WRs in yards per route. That trailed teammate Josh Downs but beat Michael Pittman.

Offensive Context

Pierce played in a Colts offense that finished bottom eight in passing attempts, yards, and TDs. The attack was much more productive under QB Joe Flacco than QB Anthony Richardson.

So was Pierce. Here are the per-game splits:

Nine games with Richardson:

• 4.3 targets
• 2.0 catches
• 42.2 yards
• 0.33 TDs

Seven games with Flacco:

• 4.3 targets
• 2.7 catches
• 63.4 yards
• 0.57 TDs

Historical Production & Trends

Pierce’s average target depth has climbed in each of his three NFL seasons, from 12.2 to 15.7 to 22.8 yards. His yards per target has also improved from 7.6 to 7.9 to 11.9.

But he hasn’t been a strong target earner. He averaged a career-high 78 targets as a rookie in 2022, but that still ranked just 53rd among WRs. Pierce ranked 64th in targets in 2023 and 60th last year.

Here are Pierce’s finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2022 - 85th
• 2023 - 97th
• 2024 - 54th

Injury History

Pierce has sustained two concussions as a pro, one in 2022 and one last year. He missed time with knee and shoulder injuries in college.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts return their top four WRs from last year in Pierce, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Adonai Mitchell.

Pierce is the favorite to remain a starting outside WR opposite Pittman, but Mitchell could push him for snaps in his second season. Downs is locked in as the primary slot receiver.

Pierce will also face increased target competition from first-round rookie TE Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is a big upgrade from the Colts’ hodgepodge of TEs last year and should command targets right away.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons — but he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics, including completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

Considering Pierce’s usage and production with and without Richardson last year, he’ll project for more fantasy value with Jones under center.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis.

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel.

We’ve seen that flexibility in Indianapolis, too. Last year, the Colts passed on just 47.1% of their plays in Richardson’s 10 games. That pass rate spiked to 59.0% in the other seven games with QB Joe Flacco.