Anthony Richardson Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Richardson played 10 full games last season. He missed most of Week 4 and all of Weeks 5 and 6 with oblique and abdomen injuries, was benched for Weeks 9 and 10, and then missed the final two games of the season with back and foot injuries.

Richardson’s fantasy scoring average in his 10 full games ranked 15th among QBs. He was a volatile weekly producer, with a pair of top-five finishes but five weeks outside of the top 20.

Usage & Role

Richardson operated a run-heavy Colts offense. He averaged just 26.0 pass attempts across his 10 full games, which ranked outside the top-30 QBs.

Richardson was busy on the ground, though, averaging 8.3 carries per game. Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels were the only QBs with more. Richardson ranked second behind only Hurts with 0.9 carries inside the five-yard line per game.

Richardson finished 15th among QBs in expected fantasy points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

Richardson was one of the worst passers in the NFL last year. He averaged 6.9 yards per attempt on a hideous 47.7% completion rate.

Richardson became just the third QB since 2000 to complete less than 50% of his passes on 250+ attempts. The other two: Akili Smith and Tim Tebow.

Here’s where Richardson ranked in key efficiency metrics last year among 34 qualifying QBs:

• 34th in completion rate
• 24th in yards per attempt
• 32nd in TD rate
• 34th in INT rate
• 34th in completion rate over expected
• 34th in on-target pass percentage
• 32nd in Pro Football Focus passing grade

Richardson at least showed slight improvement in some categories after his mid-season benching. Here are the splits:

Six games pre-benching

• 44.4% completion rate
• 7.2 yards per attempt
• 3.0% TD rate
• 5.3% INT rate
• 49.5 PFF passing grade

Five games post-benching:

• 51.2% completion rate
• 6.5 yards per attempt
• 3.1% TD rate
• 3.8% INT rate
• 70.3 PFF passing grade

Those post-benching numbers are still ugly. The passing grade, for example, would have ranked 23rd among 34 qualifiers on the season.

Richardson was much better running the ball than passing it. He tied for seventh in yards per carry (5.8) among 21 QBs with 40+ attempts and ranked fifth in yards after contact per attempt (3.2).

Offensive Context

The Colts deployed a completely different offense in games with Richardson vs. without. Here are the splits:

10 full Richardson games

• 58.2 plays per game
• 47.1% pass rate

Other 7 games

• 65.6 plays per game
• 59.0% pass rate

The Colts averaged 20.4 points per game with Richardson vs. 24.7 without.

Historical Production & Trends

Richardson played just two full games as a rookie back in 2023. He finished QB4 in both weeks, on the strength of 10-40-1 and 10-56-1 rushing lines.

Richardson was a bit better as a passer in 2023 — albeit on a small sample. He completed 59.5% of his passes at 6.9 yards per attempt with a 3.6% TD rate.

Injury History

Richardson has dealt with a ton of injuries through two NFL seasons. He sustained a concussion in Week 2 of 2023 and then a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. He had surgery in October of that year to repair a severe AC joint injury.

Then there were the oblique, abdomen, foot, and back injuries last year.

Richardson revealed near the end of last season that he’s dealt with back spasms since before college that stem from a herniated disc.

He also suffered a hamstring injury, a concussion, and a meniscus injury in college.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts made it clear early in the offseason that Richardson would need to earn the starting job in 2025. Then the team went out and signed QB Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million deal.

HC Shane Steichen said in early April that Richardson and Jones will split first-team reps throughout the offseason, suggesting that this is truly an open competition.

Jones, of course, had six underwhelming seasons in New York. But he beats Richardson in most key career passing metrics:

• Completion rate (64.1% to 50.6%)
• INT rate (2.1% to 3.7%)
• Passer rating (84.3 to 67.8)
• Success rate (42.8% to 37.9%)

Richardson beats Jones in yards per attempt (6.9 to 6.5) and TD rate (3.2% to 3.1%). He’s also a more powerful and explosive runner — although Jones is still a plus in that department. Richardson also has an edge of experience in the Colts offense.

But he’ll need to be a significantly better passer this year to win the starting job over Jones.

Supporting Cast

The Colts return last year’s top-five targets in WRs Michael Pittman, Josh Down, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell, and RB Jonathan Taylor.

They made a big upgrade at TE, using the 14th overall pick on Penn State’s Tyler Warren. He’s coming off a huge 2024 season, racking up 104 catches for 1,233 yards and eight TDs. Warren is especially dangerous after the catch and should make an immediate impact for the Colts.

It’s an above-average pass-catching corps with the upside to be a top-10 unit.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Richardson returns to the same offense he’s operated the last two seasons, led by HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel. He deployed a pass-leaning offense with QBs Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert in Los Angeles in 2019 and 2020 but then went run-heavy with QB Jalen Hurts in 2021 and 2022.

The Colts went 44.9% run in Richardson’s two full games in 2023 and 52.9% run in his 10 full games last year.

Expect a run-heavy offense featuring plenty of QB runs whenever Richardson is under center this season.