Tyler Warren Fantasy Overview

2024 Summary

College Production

Warren is coming off a historically productive 2024 season.

His 104 catches and 1,233 receiving yards were the fourth biggest tallies by a TE in NCAA history. Warren dominated the Penn State passing game, drawing a 31.6% target share and accounting for 38.5% of the team’s receiving yards. Warren ranked second among 86 qualifying TEs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and third in yards per route. AND he ran it 26 times for 281 yards and four TDs.

Warren is at his best with the ball in his hands, averaging 6.6 yards after the catch per reception for his career. He’s also comfortable making plays in traffic and has strong hands. He caught 62% of his contested targets last year and registered a sterling 2.8% drop rate.

The knocks against Warren?

The big 2024 came in his fifth college season. Warren totaled just 15 catches over his first three years at Penn State and then split time with very similar production as Theo Johnson in 2023.

Warren hasn’t been much of a downfield threat, either. He had a career 7.5-yard average target depth, and only 6% of his targets came 20+ yards downfield over the last two seasons.

Injury History

Warren enters the NFL with a clean bill of health. He didn’t miss any games with injury over his five years at Penn State.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Colts nabbed Warren with the 14th overall pick of this spring’s draft and have been talking him up since.

GM Chris Ballard: “Tyler Warren can play as an in-line TE, he can line up out wide, he can line up in the slot, he can line up at QB, you can line him up in the backfield as a fullback. There are a lot of creative ways you can use him that we’re all excited about.”

HC Shane Steichen: “He’s physical with the ball in his hands. He gets YAC, he’ll lay the wood on you, he’ll hurdle you. He’s gonna bring a lot to our team, for sure. … He’s a big target who plays above the rim. When guys are on him, he’s still open.”

Warren is clearly set up to play a lot of snaps and hold a big role in this Colts offense right away.

The target competition is fairly stout, though. WRs Josh Downs and Michael Pittman have both proven capable of commanding target shares north of 20%.

Supporting Cast

The QB position is the big question in Indianapolis heading into 2025. Anthony Richardson is coming off an ugly 2024 campaign, completing just 47.7% of his passes and ranking 32nd among 34 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Richardson will battle for the starting job this summer with free-agent addition Daniel Jones. The former Giant has been largely underwhelming through six NFL seasons, with a career 6.5 yards per attempt and 3.1% TD rate. But he beats Richardson in most career passing metrics, including completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

Jones gives the Colts another option at the position, but they’re still unlikely to get anything better than league-average QB play in 2025. And this figures to remain a run-leaning offense regardless of who’s under center.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

HC Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter return for their third season in Indianapolis.

Steichen is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game, particularly for his ability to adjust his scheme to the personnel.

He also had a nice history of TE production prior to arriving in Indianapolis, where the team simply hasn’t had talent at the position. Hunter Henry finished TE9 and TE12 in PPR points under Steichen with the Chargers in 2019 and 2020. Steichen went to Philadelphia the following year and landed both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert inside the top-10 TEs. Goedert finished TE11 under Steichen in 2022.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Warren and Colston Loveland became the fourth and fifth TEs to go in Round 1 of the NFL Draft since 2020. Here’s where the other three finished in PPR points per game as rookies:

• Kyle Pitts - 12th
• Dalton Kincaid - 13th
• Brock Bowers - 2nd