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Broncos QB Bo Nix didn't come close in Week 5 to matching his big fantasy score against Cincinnati the previous week. But we didn't expect him to. Nix posted season-high numbers at home against a floundering Bengals defense in Week 4. Sunday's game found him on the road against a Philadelphia defense that hasn't been as good as last year -- 14th in total DVOA, 11th vs. the pass -- but posted a much bigger challenge. Nix struggled through the first half at Philly, going just 10-of-21 for 79 yards. But he went 14-of-18 after the break for 163 yards, 1 TD, and the 2-point conversion pass to WR Troy Franklin that put his team ahead.
Nix, after the game: "To tell you the truth, it's not easy going out there [down] 17-3. You haven't had much success. It's tough to get things going. You want to have a juice, but you just know what's happened to us already. ... But we kind of had this sense of, 'We just need one drive.' We kind of spike it into existence."
Nix's fantasy line ended up fine in a matchup that pushed him outside the top 12 in our Week 5 rankings.
The second-half rebound in his play, though, makes Nix easier to believe in for neutral or even slightly negative matchups going forward.
Although WR Courtland Sutton easily led the team in targets (10), catches (8), and yards (99) in this one, Nix otherwise spread the ball around. Six other players drew at least two targets. Nine Broncos caught passes. The TD pass produced Evan Engram's first score of the season, and the QB found him on a play where Engram wasn't the first read.
Nix also endured just a 28% pressure rate.
The Jets and Giants set up as negative QB-scoring matchups the next two weeks by our adjusted fantasy points allowed. But they also rank just 25th and 26th, respectively, in defensive DVOA.
The next three opponents -- adding Dallas -- all rank 17th or worse in pass-defense DVOA.
Nix looks like a viable fantasy starter over that stretch. Then we can reassess ahead of a more difficult matchup with Houston.
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