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Week 5 Matchups That Matter: Fireworks From The Jets Offense?!

Welcome to Week 5’s Matchups That Matter.

Want a peek behind the curtain?

This article walks you through the process that powers our weekly projections and rankings. Below, you’ll find the key metrics and data we lean on to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 5 Rankings and your Team Intel page for personalized advice.

Good luck in Week 5!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

t-1. Lions at Bengals (49.5)
t-1. Patriots at Bills (49.5)
3. Cowboys at Jets (48.5)
t-4. Commanders at Chargers (47.5)
t-4. Raiders at Colts (47.5)

Lowest Game Totals

10. 49ers at Rams (43.5)
11. Giants at Saints (42.0)
12. Titans at Cardinals (41.5)
13. Texans at Ravens (40.5)
14. Vikings at Browns (35.5)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is projected to score this week.

Here's how each team stacks up:

Most Projected Points

1. Lions (30.0)
2. Bills (29.0)
3. Colts (27.25)
4. Rams (25.5)
5. Chargers (25.25)
6. Cowboys (25.0)

Fewest Projected Points

t-23. Vikings (19.5)
t-23. Ravens (19.5)
t-23. Bengals (19.5)
26. 49ers (18.0)
27. Titans (17.0)
28. Browns (16.0)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Lions (64.2)
2. Bills (63.8)
3. Saints (63.5)
t-4. Cowboys (63.2)
t-4. Chiefs (63.2)
t-4. Colts (63.2)

Fewest Projected Plays

t-23. Jets (61.7)
t-23. Vikings (61.7)
25. 49ers (61.4)
26. Dolphins (61.3)
27. Titans (60.5)
28. Bengals (60.4)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Giants at Saints (25.8 seconds)
2. 49ers at Rams (26.5 seconds)
3. Buccaneers at Seahawks (26.5 seconds)
4. Lions at Bengals (27.1 seconds)
5. Chiefs at Jaguars (27.2 seconds)
6. Commanders at Chargers (27.3 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds/snap)

10. Cowboys at Jets (28.8 seconds)
11. Raiders at Colts (28.8 seconds)
12. Texans at Ravens (29.3 seconds)
13. Patriots at Bills (29.4 seconds)
14. Dolphins at Panthers (29.5 seconds)

Weather Concerns

No weather issues this week.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Bills vs. Patriots (+85.1%)
2. Cowboys at Jets (+74.9%)
3. Jets vs. Cowboys (+71.8%)
4. Lions at Bengals (+68.6%)
5. Colts vs. Raiders (+64.2%)

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

24. Raiders at Colts (-4.3%)
25. Bengals vs. Lions (-12.9%)
26. Vikings vs. Browns (-16.9%)
27. Titans at Cardinals (-29.5%)
28. Browns vs. Vikings (-46.3%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2025 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Justin Fields vs. Cowboys (+64.4%)
2. Jared Goff at Bengals (+58.8%)
3. Sam Darnold vs. Buccaneers (+58.3%)
4. Geno Smith at Colts (+55.8%)
5. Jaxson Dart at Saints (+55.4%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Jalen Hurts vs. Broncos (-29.7%)
25. Cooper Rush vs. Texans (-32.0%)
26. Trevor Lawrence vs. Chiefs (-32.4%)
27. Jake Browning vs. Lions (-32.8%)
28. Dillon Gabriel vs. Vikings (-34.5%)

Running Back

Rushing Matchups 

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Saints vs. Giants (+18.1%)
2. Lions at Bengals (+9.0%)
3. Jaguars vs. Chiefs (+8.4%)
4. Bills vs. Patriots (-3.7%)
5. Rams vs. 49ers (-5.2%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

24. Vikings vs. Browns (-38.0%)
25. Titans at Cardinals (-38.4%)
26. Buccaneers at Seahawks (-49.6%)
27. Seahawks vs. Buccaneers (-50.2%)
28. Bengals vs. Lions (-56.8%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Saints vs. Giants (+64.9%)
2. Jets vs. Cowboys (+57.2%)
3. Jaguars vs. Chiefs (+41.1%)
4. Lions at Bengals (+38.8%)
5. Cardinals vs. Titans (+35.6%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed

24. Commanders at Chargers (-11.1%)
25. Raiders at Colts (-11.3%)
26. Vikings vs. Browns (-12.3%)
27. Dolphins at Panthers (-12.5%)
28. 49ers at Rams (-33.6%)

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Jets vs. Cowboys (+60.2%)
2. Chiefs at Jaguars (+54.2%)
3. Lions at Bengals (+49.7%)
4. 49ers at Rams (+49.4%)
5. Giants at Saints (+35.6%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Buccaneers at Seahawks (-28.3%)
25. Ravens vs. Texans (-31.0%)
26. Jaguars vs. Chiefs (-31.1%)
27. Commanders at Chargers (-34.8%)
28. Browns vs. Vikings (-46.1%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Whoever The Ravens Have Left At CB

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Cowboys CBs Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland, and Reddy Steward

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Dolphins CBs Jack Jones and Rasul Douglas

Jaguars WR Travis Hunter vs. Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Chiefs CBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson

Eagles WR A.J. Brown vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

Broncos CB Courtland Sutton vs. Eagles CB Quinyon Mitchell

Buccaneers WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Josh Jobe, and Devon Witherspoon

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel vs. Chargers CBs Cam Hart, Donte Jackson, and Tarheeb Still

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Raiders at Colts (+111.6%)
2. Jets vs. Cowboys (+90.5%)
3. Buccaneers at Seahawks (+43.8%)
4. 49ers at Rams (+38.6%)
5. Bills vs. Patriots (+37.0%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Commanders at Chargers (-19.7%)
25. Patriots at Bills (-36.2%)
26. Vikings vs. Browns (-45.7%)
27. Colts vs. Raiders (-54.1%)
28. Broncos at Eagles (-60.2%)

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Vikings vs. Browns (+487.5%)
2. Bills vs. Patriots (+287.5%)
3. Browns vs. Vikings (+167.4%)
4. Saints vs. Giants (+105.3%)
5. Lions at Bengals (+95.4%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Chiefs at Jaguars (+57.1%)
25. Jaguars vs. Chiefs (-71.9%)
26. Raiders at Colts (-83.0%)
27. Patriots at Bills (-88.9%)
28. Bengals vs. Lions (-90.0%)

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

1. Brandon Aubrey at Jets (+164.8%)
2. Nick Folk vs. Cowboys (+71.4%)
3. Andre Szmyt vs. Vikings (+70.0%)
4. Spencer Shrader vs. Raiders (+68.8%)
5. Joey Slye at Cardinals (+31.7%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2025 fantasy points allowed)

24. Andres Borregales at Bills (-33.3%)
25. Evan McPherson vs. Lions (-35.3%)
26. Joshua Karty vs. 49ers (-35.3%)
27. Daniel Carlson at Colts (-41.5%)
28. Tyler Loop vs. Texans (-81.8%)

Next Up

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 4 Usage

Next Article  

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.