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Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 5

Welcome to Week 5’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

Below you'll find all the metrics and data that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 5 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 5!

Highest Game Totals

t-11. Cardinals at 49ers (49.0)

t-1. Packers at Rams (49.0)

3. Ravens at Bengals (48.5)

4. Bills at Texans (47.5)

5. Colts at Jaguars (45.5)

Lowest Game Totals

t-10. Giants at Seahawks (42.5)

t-10. Jets at Vikings (42.5)

12. Panthers at Bears (41.0)

t-13. Dolphins at Patriots (36.0)

t-13. Raiders at Broncos (36.0)

Highest Implied Points

1. 49ers (27.75)

2. Packers (26.0)

3. Ravens (25.5)

4. Seahawks (24.75)

t-5. Texans (24.5)

t-5. Jaguars (24.5)

7. Chiefs (24.25)

Lowest Implied Points

23. Saints (18.75)

t-24. Panthers (18.5)

t-24. Dolphins (18.5)

26. Giants (17.75)

27. Patriots (17.5)

28. Raiders (16.75)

Projected Plays

The chart below how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. 49ers (64.8)

2. Texans (64.5)

3. Seahawks (64.0)

4. Browns (63.8)

5. Packers (63.2)

Fewest Projected Plays

24. Saints (60.9)

25. Falcons (60.5)

26. Raiders (60.0)

27. Dolphins (58.2)

28. Patriots (58.0)

Pace Matchups 

The chart below how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Colts at Jaguars (25.8 seconds)

2. Panthers at Bears (27.2 seconds)

3. Giants at Seahawks (27.3 seconds)

4. Ravens at Bengals (27.6 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

10. Jets at Vikings (28.95 seconds)

11. Dolphins at Patriots (28.95 seconds)

12. Cardinals at 49ers (29.05 seconds)

13. Bills at Texans (29.2 seconds)

14. Browns at Commanders (29.8 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Panthers at Bears

Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. That's enough to impact some deeper passes and kicks. I'd at least avoid the kickers in this game, which sports a 41-point over/under.

Colts at Jaguars

Rain is expected during this game, potentially heavy at times. Winds will at least stay under 10 mph. We could see both teams lean a bit more on the run if it gets sloppy, but the passing games should be able to function.

Cowboys at Steelers

A chance for a brief thunderstorm early in the game, but most of this one should be dry.

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. 49ers vs. Cardinals (+82.9%)

2. Packers at Rams (+78.1%)

3. Ravens at Bengals (+73.1%)

4. Colts at Jaguars (+72.8%)

5. Commanders vs. Browns (+52.4%)

6 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

t-23. Browns at Commanders (-1.1%)

t-23. Bears vs. Panthers (-1.1%)

25. Patriots vs. Dolphins (-8.5%)

26. Raiders at Broncos (-11.8%)

27. Jets at Vikings (-19.9%)

28. Panthers at Bears (-33.1%)

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Deshaun Watson at Commanders (+62%)

2. Anthony Richardson at Jaguars (+57%)

3. Jordan Love at Rams (+46%)

4. Trevor Lawrence vs. Colts (+45%)

5. Josh Allen at Texans (+45%)

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Gardner Minshew at Broncos (-31%)

25. Sam Darnold vs. Jets (-34%)

26. Patrick Mahomes vs. Saints (-43%)

27. Andy Dalton at Bears (-50%)

28. Jacoby Brissett vs. Dolphins (-56%)

Sneaky Starter

Geno Smith, Seahawks

Smith ranks eighth among QBs in fantasy points through four weeks and has finished exactly QB8 in three of his four outings.

He's done that despite poor TD luck. His 2.5% TD rate ranks 27th among 33 qualifying QBs.

Smith is crushing everywhere else:

• 1st in pass attempts
• 1st in completions
• 2nd in completion rate
• 1st in passing yards

New OC Ryan Grubb is running a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. A perfect situation for passing-game production.

Smith is a safe Week 5 start with blowup potential against a leaky Giants secondary. Seattle's 24.75-point implied total is fourth-highest on the week.

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Ravens at Bengals (+22.6%)

2. Commanders vs. Browns (+20.0%)

3. Packers at Rams (+15.3%)

4. Seahawks vs. Giants (+8.1%)

5. Bengals vs. Ravens (+6.7%)

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

24. Cardinals at 49ers (-30.1%)

25. Dolphins at Patriots (-34.6%)

26. Giants at Seahawks (-40.5%)

27. Raiders at Broncos (-49.4%)

28. Jets at Vikings (-50.4%)

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Texans vs. Bills (+88%)

2. Browns at Commanders (+62%)

3. Steelers vs. Cowboys (+46%)

4. Bears vs. Panthers (+36%)

5. Broncos vs. Raiders (+33%)

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Jets at Vikings (-19%)

25. Chiefs vs. Saints (-20%)

26. Buccaneers at Falcons (-22%)

27. Cowboys at Steelers (-24%)

28. Saints at Chiefs (-42%)

Sneaky Starters

Najee Harris, Steelers

Harris busted last week, totaling 73 scoreless yards in the loss to the Colts.

But his usage was strong:

• 69% snap rate (season high)
• 62% route rate (season high)
• 65% RB carry share
• 17.6% target share (season high)

With RBs Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson ruled out, Harris should be in for another big workload on Sunday night. He gets a Cowboys defense that was getting slaughtered by the run before getting a respite against the Giants last week.

Trey Sermon, Indianapolis Colts

Sermon is the next man up in the Colts' backfield with RB Jonathan Taylor dealing with an ankle injury.

The 2021 third-round pick flamed out in San Francisco and then Philadelphia. But he averaged 4.6 yards per carry on 35 attempts for the Colts last year.

What makes Sermon a more attractive Week 5 play is that he'd already been getting some passing-down work with a healthy Taylor. While I expect RB Tyler Goodson to mix in this weekend, particularly in passing situations, I don't expect Sermon to be a zero in that department.

He gets a Jaguars squad that has played the run tougher than the pass so far this season. But they rank just 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Colts at Jaguars (+68%)

2. Browns at Commanders (+55%)

3. Broncos vs. Raiders (+49%)

4. Rams vs. Packers (+32%)

5. Ravens at Bengals (+20%)

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Cowboys at Steelers (-19%)

25. Panthers at Bears (-33%)

26. Texans vs. Bills (-34%)

27. Patriots vs. Dolphins (-34%)

28. Raiders at Broncos (-48%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Steelers CB Beanie Bishop

49ers WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk vs. Cardinals CBs Starling Thomas and Sean Murphy-Bunting

Seahawks WRs D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Giants CBs Cordale Flott, Deonte Banks, and Nick McCloud

Bears WRs D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze vs. Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Troy Hill

Browns WRs Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste, Emmanuel Forbes, and Mike Sainristil

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Texans CB Jalen Pitre

Packers WRs Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs vs. Rams CBs Tre White and Cobie Durant

Colts WRs Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce vs. Jaguars CBs Montaric Brown, Ronald Darby and Jarrian Jones

Rams WRs Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, and Demarcus Robinson vs. Packers CBs Eric Stokes, Jaire Alexander, and Keisean Nixon

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen and Tre Brown

Texans WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell vs. Bills CBs Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas

Saints WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed vs. Chiefs CBs Jaylen Watson, Nazeeh Johnson, and Trent McDuffie

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Browns CBs Martin Emerson and Denzel Ward

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers vs. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain

Sneaky Starters

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers

We've been talking and writing about Wicks around here since the spring. He's been awesome on a per-route basis through his first 19 NFL games and is now set to see a big boost in playing time with WRs Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs out.

He gets a Rams defense this weekend that ranks 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. They've been especially bad against receivers on the outside, which is where Wicks will be running most of his routes. 

Josh Downs, WR, Colts

Downs has drawn 14 targets on a 28% share in two games back from his August high-ankle sprain.

QB Joe Flacco being under center this weekend should mean more passing and more efficient passing.

Downs gets a Jaguars squad that ranks dead last in both pass defense DVOA and adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Jordan Whittington, WR, Los Angeles Rams

This is a deeper cut, but Whittington could be in play for owners dealing with bye-week problems.

The rookie drew some buzz in August and has earned a target on an impressive 24% of his routes this season -- a top-25 mark among all WRs.  He played a full-time role last week, running a route on 97% of dropbacks.

Sunday's game vs. the Packers sports the week's highest over/under (49.0). Green Bay ranks 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Jaguars vs. Colts (+159%)

2. Jets at Vikings (+143%)

3. Bengals vs. Ravens (+84%)

4. Saints at Chiefs (+81%)

5. Giants at Seahawks (+77%)

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

24. Bills at Texans (-39%)

25. Ravens at Bengals (-44%)

26. Browns at Commanders (-47%)

27. Steelers vs. Cowboys (-57%)

28. Vikings vs. Jets (-64%)

Sneaky Starter

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers

Kraft is coming off a 6-53-1 line in the Week 4 loss to the Vikings. He benefitted from QB Jordan Love chucking it 54 times, but Kraft drew a 17% target share on a season-high 86% route rate.

If he can hover around those marks, Kraft might just emerge as a weekly TE1.

He's at least a nice Week 5 streamer with TE Luke Musgrave dealing with an ankle injury and the Packers implied for 26 points at the Rams.

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders vs. Browns (+688%)

2. Panthers at Bears (+183%)

3. Ravens at Bengals (+140%)

4. Patriots vs. Dolphins (+125%)

5. Saints at Chiefs (+92%)

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Steelers vs. Cowboys (-49%)

25. Cardinals at 49ers (-50%)

26. Jaguars vs. Colts (-55%)

27. Bengals vs. Ravens (-71%)

28. Browns at Commanders (-83%)

Sneaky Starters

Check out our top Week 5 Streaming DSTs.

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Wil Lutz vs. Raiders (+98%)

2. Eddy Pineiro at Bears (+92%)

3. Matt Gay at Jaguars (+83%)

4. Chase McLaughlin at Falcons (+56%)

5. Will Reichard vs. Jets (+50%)

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

24. Jake Moody vs. Cardinals (-26%)

25. Ka’imi Fairbairn vs. Bills (-33%)

26. Daniel Carlson at Broncos (-43%)

27. Brandon Aubrey at Steelers (-43%)

28. Greg Zuerlein at Vikings (-63%)

Sneaky Starter

Jason Myers, Seattle Seahawks

Myers' Seahawks are 7-point home favorites with a 24.75-point implied total. A perfect setup for a fantasy kicker.

The Giants rank a middling 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.