Week 5 Matchups That Matter: Lions Pass Game Set To Feast

Welcome to Week 5’s Matchups That Matter.

This article gives you a peek at the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/sit calls every week.

With four weeks in the books, we now have a good idea of what these offenses and defenses will look like this season. It's time to start leaning on the matchup data.

When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 5 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 5!

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Projected Points
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

Highest Game Totals

t-1. Bills at Rams (54.5)
t-1. Lions at Cardinals (54.5)
3. Buccaneers at Cowboys (49.0)
4. Bears at Packers (47.0)
5. 49ers at Seahawks (46.5)
6. Raiders at Patriots (45.0)

Lowest Game Totals

10. Broncos at Chargers (42.0)
t-11. Vikings at Saints (41.5)
t-11. Giants at Commanders (41.5)
t-11. Eagles vs. Jaguars (41.5)
14. Browns at Jets (39.5)
15. Texans at Titans (38.0)

Projected Points

We can use Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.

Highest Projected Points

1. Lions (30.0)
2. Cowboys (29.5)
3. Rams (29.0)
4. Bills (25.5)
5. Bengals (25.25)
6. Jaguars (25)
7. Seahawks (24.75)
8. Cardinals (24.5)

Lowest Projected Points

25. Chargers (19.5)
26. Giants (19.0)
27. Browns (18.5)
28. Dolphins (18.25)
29. Eagles (16.5)
30. Titans (15.25)

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

Most Projected Plays

1. Lions (64.1)
2. Bears (64.0)
3. Rams (63.9)
4. Saints (63.4)
5. Cowboys (63.3)
6. Cardinals (63.2)

Fewest Projected Plays

25. Ravens (60.9)
26. Browns (60.8)
27. Buccaneers (60.1)
28. Eagles (60.0)
29. Titans (58.8)
30. Dolphins (58.7)

Pace Matchups

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

1. Texans at Titans (27.1 seconds)
2. Bills at Rams (27.7 seconds)
3. Lions at Cardinals (28.1 seconds)
4. Packers at Bears (28.3 seconds)

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of seconds per snap)

12. Giants at Commanders (30.6 seconds)
13. Eagles at Jaguars (31.5 seconds)
t-14. Browns at Jets (31.5 seconds)
t-14. Ravens at Falcons (31.5 seconds)

Weather Concerns

Browns at Jets

Rain is expected throughout this game. Winds are forecasted around 10 mph with gusts up to 25. Tough conditions for the passing games. Expect both teams to lean further toward the run. The over/under in this game has dropped from 40 to 39.5.

Colts at Steelers

There's rain in the forecast for this one, particularly in the first half. Winds are expected around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. It's not as ugly as the Browns-Jets game, but we’re lowering both teams’ projected pass rates a bit.

Giants at Commanders

A 60-70% chance of rain throughout this game. Winds are forecasted at 10-14 mph with gusts up around 25 mph. Neither of these teams needs an excuse to lean on the run, and the weather will only push them further in that direction. This over/under has dropped from 42.5 to 41.5.

Quarterback

Pass Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 4 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Pass Defense Power," which averages those 4 metrics.

Week 5 Passing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Pass Offense Power vs. their opponent's Pass Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best QB Matchups

1. Jameis Winston at Commanders (+60.8%)
2. Matthew Stafford vs. Bills (+57.9%)
3. Jalon Daniels at Cowboys (+47.9%)
4. Tyson Bagent at Packers (+44.7%)
5. Jacoby Brissett vs. Lions (+40.2%)

5 Worst QB Matchups

26. Bo Nix at Chargers (-21.7%)
27. Brock Purdy at Seahawks (-24.2%)
28. Deshaun Watson at Jets (-31.3%)
29. Tyler Shough vs. Vikings (-33.7%)
30. Kirk Cousins at Patriots (-35.2%)

Running Back

Run Defense Power Rankings

Here's a look at how each team has fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 4 weeks. Teams are ranked by "Run Defense Power," which averages those 3 metrics.

Week 5 Rushing Matchups

This chart plots each team's Run Offense Power vs. their opponent's Run Defense Power. Teams in the bottom right quadrant are in smash spots.

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best RB Matchups

1. Bears at Packers (+36.8%)
2. Browns at Jets (+31.9%)
3. Bengals at Dolphins (+27.7%)
4. Rams vs. Bills (+27.1%)
5. Seahawks vs. 49ers (+21.5%)

5 Worst RB Matchups

26. Titans vs. Texans (-22.2%)
27. Giants at Commanders (-24.6%)
28. Bills at Rams (-26.0%)
29. Saints vs. Vikings (-32.0%)
30. Lions at Cardinals (-34.8%)

Wide Receiver

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed. 

5 Best WR Matchups

1. Rams vs. Bills (+41.0%)
2. Bears at Packers (+38.1%)
3. Lions at Cardinals (+33.3%)
4. Cardinals vs. Lions (+31.1%)
5. Eagles at Jaguars (+28.0%)

5 Worst WR Matchups

26. Packers vs. Bears (-27.0%)
27. Browns at Jets (-27.5%)
28. Bengals at Dolphins (-27.8%)
29. Cowboys vs. Buccaneers (-30.9%)
30. 49ers at Seahawks (-33.0%)

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Cardinals CB Garrett Williams

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker

Giants WRs Malik Nabers, Malachi Fields, and Darnell Mooney vs. Commanders CBs Amik Robertson, Rasul Douglas, and Mike Sainristil

Cardinals WRs Michael Wilson and Kendrick Bourne vs. Lions CBs D.J. Reed, Ennis Rakestraw, and Roger McCreary

Bears WRs Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Kalif Raymond vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon, Brandon Cisse, and Javon Bullard

Colts WR Josh Downs vs. Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey

Buccaneers WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland and Reddy Steward

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Saints WRs Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele vs. Vikings CBs Isaiah Rodgers, James Pierre, and Byron Murphy

Falcons WR Drake London vs. Ravens CBs Nate Wiggins and Chidobe Awuzie

49ers WRs Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel vs. Seahawks CBs Josh Jobe, Nehemiah Pritchett, and Devon Witherspoon

Titans WRs Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre

Dolphins WRs Malik Washington and Chris Bell vs. Bengals CBs D.J. Turner, Daxton Hill, and Jalen Davis

Eagles WRs Dontayvion Wicks, Makai Lemon, and Darius Cooper vs. Jaguars CBs Travis Hunter, Jarrian Jones, and Jourdan Lewis

Tight End

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best TE Matchups

1. Giants at Commanders (+130.8%)
2. Cardinals vs. Lions (+91.9%)
3. Lions at Cardinals (+66.0%)
4. Dolphins vs. Bengals (+56.3%)
5. Jets vs. Browns (+39.2%)

5 Worst TE Matchups

26. Seahawks vs. 49ers (-42.7%)
27. Broncos at Chargers (-52.9%)
28. Bills at Rams (56.2%)
29. Packers vs. Bears (-59.6%)
30. Raiders at Patriots (-61.4%)

Defense/Special Teams

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best DST Matchups

1. Commanders vs. Giants (+200.0%)
2. Ravens at Falcons (+148.9%)
3. Cowboys vs. Buccaneers (+116.2%)
4. Bills at Rams (+78.9%)
5. Colts at Steelers (+78.1%)

5 Worst DST Matchups

26. Rams vs. Bills (-38.4%)
27. Eagles at Jaguars (-67.7%)
28. Cardinals vs. Lions (-69.6%)
29. Buccaneers at Cowboys (-80.0%)
30. Seahawks vs. 49ers (-116.2%)

Kicker

Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Matchup Upgrades & Downgrades

The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.

5 Best K Matchups

1. Brandon Aubrey vs. Buccaneers (+54.3%)
2. Ka'imi Fairbairn at Titans (+46.6%)
3. Joey Slye vs. Texans (+38.3%)
4. Dominic Zvada at Commanders (+32.0%)
5. Riley Patterson vs. Bengals (+31.6%)

5 Worst K Matchups

26. Chad Ryland vs. Lions (-33.7%)
27. Andres Borregales vs. Raiders (-36.0%)
28. Trey Smack vs. Bears (-42.0%)
29. Cairo Santos at Packers (-44.8%)
30. Drew Stevens vs. Giants (-55.9%)