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This Bills Regression Candidate Could Kill Your Fantasy Season

Buffalo Bills 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Josh Allen

Bottom Line: Allen's Still an Upside QB1

Allen remained a high upside fantasy starter in 2024, fueled by elite rushing production. The 29-year-old remains a clear top-tier option in 2025 drafts.

2024 Summary

Allen's Production Dips, but Spike Weeks Remain

Allen finished fourth among QBs in fantasy points and fantasy points per game. He recorded nine top-eight fantasy finishes, including four at QB1.

Rushing production fueled the high-end finish. Among QBs, Allen ranked second in rush TDs (12) and fifth in rush yards (531).

That proved critical, as Allen’s passing output declined. He ranked 19th in passing yards per game (219.4) and tenth in passing TDs per game (1.65).

Rushing Production Shows Downward Trend

Allen’s rushing usage has dipped alongside OC Joe Brady, who took over during the 2023 season. Here’s the trend for Buffalo’s eighth-year QB:

• Carries per game
  • 2021: 7.2
  • 2022: 7.8
  • 2023: 6.5
  • 2024: 6.0
• Designed carries per game
  • 2021: 4.2
  • 2022: 4.2
  • 2023: 3.6
  • 2024: 3.5

Allen tallied 18 carries inside the 10-yard line and 10 inside the five. Only Jalen Hurts topped those numbers.

High-End Efficiency Boosts Fantasy Production

Allen remained one of the most efficient TD producers in the league.

In fact, the 29-year-old is the only QB with a 5+% pass TD rate in each of the last five seasons.

He showed no cause for concern elsewhere. Allen’s 7.7 yards per attempt, 74.2% adjusted completion rate, and 84.1 Pro Football Focus passing grade each fell in line with recent years.

Allen notched 0.70 fantasy points per dropback last year – third best league-wide.

Allen Overcame Several Unfavorable Factors

Brady’s offense ranked just 25th in pass rate. However, they jumped to 13th in pass rate over expectation.

It’s also worth noting that Buffalo ranked 28th in total plays (1,025) — way down from 1,115 plays in 2023.

This pass-catching corps plateaued after WR Stefon Diggs’ departure. Rookie WR Keon Coleman and second-year TE Dalton Kincaid each missed four games with injuries, while both underperformed when active.

Buffalo also received little from slot WR Curtis Samuel, who signed a three-year deal with $15 million guaranteed last March.

Buffalo’s O-line at least provided reliable protection. They slotted fourth in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric.

An NFL Ironman

Allen played all 17 games last season. In December, he admitted to playing through a broken left hand from Week 1. He also suffered a right elbow contusion in Week 16.

The veteran hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2018.

2025 Expectations

Bills Target Young WR in Free Agency

Buffalo returns leading receiver Khalil Shakir alongside Kincaid, Coleman, and Samuel.

They used a Round 5 pick on blocking TE Jackson Hawes and took a Round 7 flier on Maryland WR Kaden Prather. But the biggest addition came in free agency with the signing of WR Josh Palmer (3 years, $18 million guaranteed). Palmer held the Chargers’ No. 3 WR role last season, but he adds positional versatility and a larger frame at 6’2, 210 pounds.

The Bills also took a low-risk flier on Elijah Moore, who posted just 61-538-1 on 103 targets in Cleveland last season.

Overall, this unit still lacks a true No. 1 target. But that certainly didn’t hamper Allen in 2024.

Buffalo also returns all five starters along the O-line.

Don't Expect a Pass-Happy Approach

Joe Brady returns for his second full season as OC.

We’ve seen Buffalo shift more to the run under Brady’s leadership. We can reasonably expect that to continue with a ground game of Allen, James Cook, and Ray Davis. Cook ranked sixth among RBs in EPA per rush and 11th in success rate last year.

Overall, the Bills have the pass-catching depth to remain formationally versatile. This includes the TE corps, where Dawson Knox returns for his seventh season.

One more observation: The Bills haven't pushed the pace in any of the past two seasons. They ranked 24th in situation-neutral pace in 2023 and 21st in 2024.

Allen's Rushing Remains Impactful

Allen finished as the fantasy QB1 or QB2 each year from 2020 to 2023. Despite the slight dip in 2024, he retains the ceiling to lead the position in scoring this fall.

What’s the biggest difference maker? It’s Allen’s rushing output, which has included 15 and 12 TDs over the past two seasons.

James Cook

Bottom Line: Cook is a Strong Regression Candidate

Cook’s TDs are set to regress after a massive 2024. Still, he’s firmly positioned as a lead back for one of the NFL’s top offenses. Treat the contract-year back as a mid-level fantasy RB2.

2024 Summary

Huge TD Production Leads to RB1 Season

Cook finished as the RB8 in total PPR points. He slid to 11th in points per game.

The 25-year-old ranked as a top-12 producer in nine of 16 games. He finished outside the top-24 RBs on five occasions, including one in a meaningless Week 18 game.

TD production propelled him to the career-best fantasy finish. After totaling 4 rushing TDs across the previous two seasons, Cook racked up a massive 16 rushing scores in 2024. That tied for the league lead.

Just keep in mind that Cook ranked 8th in expected rush TDs (10.3). He’s an obvious regression candidate in 2025.

Cook also finished 16th among RBs in rushing yards (1,009), 33rd in catches (32), and 28th in receiving yards (258).

Cook Earns More Work Near Goal Line

Cook handled 44% of Buffalo’s red zone carries and 48% of the goal line carries. Compare that to 2023, when he saw a 29% share of the RZ carries; 28% of the goal line work.

Cook’s total carries per game dropped slightly from 13.9 to 12.9. His carry share wound up at just 45.2% – 26th among RBs.

His targets dipped from 3.2 to 2.4 per game, producing a target share of 7.8% (41st among RBs).

Note: Cook wasn’t fully utilized in Week 18 with Buffalo’s playoff spot secured.

Cook Plays at a Pro Bowl Level

Cook’s metrics largely paint a rosy picture.

Among 31 RBs with 150+ carries, he ranked:

• 6th in yards per carry
• 8th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• 12th in yards after contact per attempt
• 20th in PFF’s Elusive Rating.

Elsewhere, Cook finished sixth among RBs in EPA per rush, 11th in success rate, and 11th in explosive play rate.

At bottom, Cook’s numbers either fell in line with past production or set career highs.

Bills Supplied Ideal Environment

Returning OC Joe Brady emphasized the run. The Bills finished with the fourth-highest rush rate (49.3%) league-wide.

Cook also benefited from 17 games of Josh Allen. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season.

Plus, the Bills trotted out a cohesive O-line. They finished 13th in PFF's run blocking grades and 17th in ESPN's run block win rate.

No Major Injury Concerns

Cook missed one game with a toe sprain. He played all 17 games in 2023.

2025 Expectations

Keep an Eye on Cook's Contract Spat

Cook’s 13 carries per game and 2.4 targets per game from last season are a reasonable ballpark for 2025.

The backfield remains unchanged, with Cook slotting in as the lead back ahead of Ray Davis. As a rookie, Davis averaged just 5.5 carries in 14 full games with Cook.

Ty Johnson re-signed on a two-year deal. He’ll continue to chip with two-minute and change-of-pace snaps.

Let’s just keep an eye on Cook’s contract situation this offseason. He enters a contract year and has gone public with a request for $15 million per year. We don’t foresee Cook missing time, though. And neither does GM Brandon Beane, who said in May that he expects Cook to suit up for Week 1.

June Update: Cook participated fully in mandatory minicamp. GM Brandon Beane expects the RB to be "ready to roll" come training camp.

Bills Keep the Band (Mostly) Together

Buffalo returns the same five O-line starters from 2024.

They added depth with the signing of former Round 3 pick Kendrick Green and rookie blocking TE Jackson Hawes.

The pass-catching corps remains without a true No. 1 WR. But it’s deep, rostering names like Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, Curtis Samuel, and Elijah Moore.

Of course, QB Josh Allen returns to help divert defensive attention. Last year, Cook ran into an average of 6.5 defenders in the box per rush. That placed him in the middle of a sample of 31 RBs, per SumerSports.

Brady's Return Ensures Continuity for Cook

OC Joe Brady retains play-calling duties after his first full season on the job. We project a similarly favorable pass/run split in 2025.

Last year, Cook ran a near-even mix of zone and gap concepts. Buffalo’s returning O-line should allow for another diversified run game.

Ray Davis

Khalil Shakir

Bottom Line: Shakir Still the Go-To Option

Shakir stepped up for a Bills offense that lacked reliable pass catchers in 2024. The group looks improved for 2025, but Shakir is still a good bet for lower-end WR3 production.

2024 Summary

Shakir Supplies Solid Production

Shakir set career highs in catches (76), yards (821), and TDs (4).

Overall, he finished as the WR37 in PPR. He jumped to WR34 in points per game.

Shakir tallied two top-12 fantasy finishes, peaking at WR9. He finished between WR16 and WR25 on six occasions.

On the low side, Shakir ranked WR54 or worse four times, including each of his final two games.

Upside Limited By a Lack of Red-Zone Action

Shakir benefited from the loss of Stefon Diggs, who left behind a 29% target share.

Buffalo’s short-range slot target captured a team-leading 23% target share – easily a team-high.

Shakir’s four TDs make sense when you consider his usage. Per Pro Football Focus, he garnered only eight red zone targets. His percentage of targets that came in the red zone: 15.8%.

Both marks ranked bottom 10 in a sample of 78 WRs.

Shakir Proved Excellent On a Per-Snap Basis

Among 51 WRs with 80+ targets, Shakir ranked:

• 3rd in catch rate
• 3rd in yards after catch per reception
• 14th in yards per route run
• 45th in yards per catch

On a per-snap basis, the third-year pro performed as a top-end option. His .31 fantasy points per snap were topped by only six WRs, per PFF.

Shakir also proved ultra-reliable. He posted just a 2.6% drop rate, amounting to a still-low mark of 3.1% for his career.

Buffalo Stuck With a Run-Based Offense

Shakir hit 100 targets (6.6 per game) for a run-leaning Buffalo offense.

OC Joe Brady’s unit ranked 29th in pass rate, albeit 13th in pass rate over expected.

Shakir benefited from an offense that received MVP-level play from Josh Allen. The WR corps also lacked go-to options, especially with Dalton Kincaid taking a step back in Year 2.

Amari Cooper joined the squad ahead of Week 7, but his arrival barely impacted Shakir. The former Brown averaged 4.7 targets per game across seven appearances, inflated by a 14-target outing in Week 14.

Shakir Misses First NFL Game

Shakir missed Week 5 with an ankle injury.

In four games pre-injury, Shakir averaged 4.5 catches and 57.5 yards (12.7 YPC).

In 11 games post-injury, Shakir averaged 5.2 catches and 53.7 yards (10.3 YPC).

Shakir didn’t miss any games due to injury in 2022 or 2023.

2025 Expectations

Bills Extend Shakir, Add Notable WR in Free Agency

The Bills certainly haven’t lowered expectations for Shakir.

In February, they inked him to a four-year extension with $32 million guaranteed.

Buffalo’s offseason actions signal more confidence in Shakir. GM Brandon Beane waited until Round 7 to select a WR – Maryland’s Kaden Prather. He’s a long shot for 2025 value.

In free agency, Josh Palmer joined on a somewhat surprising sum (3 years, $18 million guaranteed). The former Charger tallied just 39-584-1 last year alongside Justin Herbert.

Buffalo also took a no-risk shot on Elijah Moore. We don’t see him as a threat to Shakir’s slot snaps.

The biggest factors remain Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid. Can Coleman take a Year 2 jump after a quiet ‘24? And can Kincaid – after battling injuries last season – look more like the guy we saw in 2023?

Even if Coleman and Kincaid improve, Shakir remains the most reliable target on this team.

Josh Allen Remains Elite

Josh Allen returns for his eighth season.

Last year, Allen set career-best marks in QBR and INT rate. He’s squarely in his prime at 29 years old.

Buffalo’s O-line also supports what projects to be a top-five offense. All five starters return for 2025.

Expect Similar Volume for Shakir

Joe Brady drew HC interest this offseason. Ultimately, he returns for his second full season as play-caller.

The Bills project to remain a run-oriented offense under his leadership. Brady also talked last year about an ‘everyone eats’ offensive approach, and Buffalo’s offseason moves suggest they’ll adopt the same mindset in 2025.

In other words: Don’t expect Shakir’s target volume to rise drastically.

Keon Coleman

Bottom Line: Coleman A Second-Year Name to Watch

Coleman disappointed in 2024, but he entered the league as a relatively raw prospect. We project enough improvement to make him useful as a fantasy spot starter in 2025.

2024 Summary

Coleman Wasn't a Trustworthy Rookie

Coleman underwhelmed as an early Round 2 rookie. Across 13 games, he tallied only 29 catches for 556 yards and 4 TDs.

Coleman finished at WR36 or better in only three games. He slotted WR50 or worse six times.

Overall, he ranked 67th in PPR points per game and expected points per game.

Coleman Assumed a Downfield Role

Buffalo utilized Coleman as a primary outside WR. He played in the slot on only 10.8% of his passing-down snaps, per Pro Football Focus.

Coleman’s outside role led to deep-ball usage, with his average depth of target (aDOT) finishing at 15.5. That ranked fifth among 88 WRs with 50+ targets.

His volume was unspectacular, despite the Bills moving on from WR Stefon Diggs.

The rookie finished with a 15% target share. And that was boosted by a 31% share in Week 18 when Buffalo rested starters.

In the red zone, Coleman attracted a modest 13.8% target share, per Pro Football Reference. That figure ranked 49th among all WRs and tied for second on the Bills.

Drops, Contested-Catch Rate Show Areas for Improvement

Among 84 WRs with 50+ targets, Coleman ranked 3rd in yards per catch, 42nd in yards per route run, and 81st in catch rate. He also struggled with a 14.7% drop rate and a 36.8% contested catch rate, per PFF.

Those numbers aren’t too surprising when you consider his deep ball role. But there’s one other stat that shows there’s still work to be done.

Coleman finished 83rd among 116 qualifiers in ESPN’s Open Score. He finished a much more promising 14th in their YAC Score. The rookie averaged a strong 7.7 yards after catch per reception.

Buffalo Leaned Run in 2024

OC Joe Brady’s unit ranked 29th in pass rate, albeit 13th in pass rate over expected.

The mid-season arrival of Amari Cooper wasn’t ideal, but he didn’t become a target hog. From Week 7 on, Cooper topped five targets only once.

Of course, QB Josh Allen remained elite en route to his first MVP award.

Bills GM Sends Coleman a Message

Coleman missed four games with a late-season wrist injury. He also got banged up with a Week 2 hip injury but didn’t miss time.

Here’s GM Brandon Beane in January (via NBC Sports) speaking about Coleman’s return from the wrist.

“I would say, probably was a little disappointed in the return from the injury. I did not see the same player down the stretch from a physicality, some of the things that he needs to use his size. Some of that is youth, some of that is, I’m not sure how many injuries he’s had to overcome in-season and come back. That takes a certain experience level, how to deal with an injury and how to return.”

2025 Expectations

Bills Add Two WRs in Free Agency

Buffalo added WRs Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore in free agency. Palmer will be counted on for a role after signing for 3 years and $18 million guaranteed, although he never truly broke out in Los Angeles.

Moore brings intriguing talent, but he was inefficient in a bad situation with Cleveland in 2024.

So Coleman’s main target competition should come from WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid. Both of those guys primarily operate in the short range, so look for Coleman to stick as a downfield target.

Coleman's QB Boosts His Upside

Josh Allen returns for his eighth season.

Last season, Allen set career-best marks in QBR and INT rate. He’s squarely in his prime at 29 years old.

Buffalo’s O-line also supports what should be a reliable offense. All five starters return for 2025.

Buffalo Keeps Same Offensive System

OC Joe Brady returns for his second season as play-caller.

We expect a similar offense approach to last year, both in terms of pass volume and style. In 2024, Allen ranked fourth among 38 qualifiers in deep pass rate (15.1%).

Coleman a Clear Candidate to Improve

Our historical aging curves show that a WR’s biggest jump – regardless of draft capital – happens from age 21 to age 22.

At 22, Coleman certainly has room to improve in 2025. Also note: Coleman started for only two seasons at college (one at Michigan State, one at Florida State).

Josh Palmer

Bottom Line: Don't Expect Breakout Numbers, Despite Big Contract

Palmer’s free agent contract suggests the Bills have high expectations. But given his career numbers – and Buffalo’s current depth chart – the 25-year-old is best viewed as a bench stash.

2024 Summary

A Quiet Season in Los Angeles

Palmer tallied 39 catches for 584 yards and 1 TD. His per-game averages: 2.6 catches, 38.9 yards, and .06 TDs.

The contract-year WR recorded only three top-36 fantasy finishes. He finished at WR50 or worse nine times, making him an untrustworthy fantasy asset.

Palmer Finishes as the No. 3 Target

Palmer held the No. 3 WR role behind Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston.

The veteran played inside and out with a 32.9% slot rate and a 67.1% rate out wide (per PFF). Palmer added a career high with a 15.1-yard average depth of target.

One other area of interest: Palmer’s red zone usage. He garnered just 14% of the team’s RZ targets per Pro Football Reference – fourth among Chargers.

Efficiency Metrics Don't Paint a Pretty Picture

Palmer’s 68.3 PFF receiving grade was a career high, but it still ranked 58th among 84 WRs with 50+ targets.

He underwhelmed in some other metrics, too:

• 25th in drop rate
• 56th in yards per route run
• 61st in contested catch rate
• 63rd in catch rate
• 78th in yards after catch per reception

Palmer also finished 54th out of 116 WRs in ESPN’s Open Score.

Palmer's Production Boosted By Injured Teammates

The Chargers ranked just 23rd in pass rate. They rose to 12th in pass rate over expected.

Two of Palmer’s three best yardage totals (63, 72) came with Johnston sidelined (Week 7 and Week 8). Palmer’s best yardage total surfaced with McConkey out of the lineup (78 yards, Week 14).

No Breakout in Volume

Palmer’s target share took a step back in 2024. Here’s a look at his shares over the last three seasons:

• 2024: 14.3%
• 2023: 16.7%
• 2022: 16.2%

Palmer’s 39-584-1 line from last fall nearly matched his output from 2023. The major difference: Palmer played four additional games in ‘23.

Palmer Misses Time With Two Injuries

Palmer missed Week 3 with an elbow/calf injury. He sat out Week 18 and the Wild Card Round with a foot injury.

Palmer missed six games in 2023 (knee) and one game in 2022 (concussion).

2025 Expectations

Palmer Signs Sizable Deal, But How's the Fit?

Buffalo signed Palmer to a three-year deal worth $29 million ($18 million guaranteed).

It sounds like a lot given Palmer’s subpar production. But that’s the nature of free agency – and clearly, the Bills saw something they liked in the 25-year-old.

Palmer ultimately projects as the No. 3/4 target behind at least Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid. Shakir enjoyed a breakout 2024, developing into a sure-handed slot. Kincaid regressed as he played through an injury, but it’s possible he rebounds this fall.

We’ll see how WR Keon Coleman progresses after a quiet rookie season.

Palmer's TD Count Unlikely to Spike

Allen remains the engine behind this unit. In 2024, he ranked top 10 in TD rate, success rate, QBR, and yards per attempt.

Just don’t expect Palmer’s TDs to spike, partly due to Allen’s red zone rushing. Allen rushed 31 times in the red zone last year – third most among QBs.

Bills Offensive Approach Portends a Lack of Consistency

OC Joe Brady returns for his second season as play-caller.

We expect a similar offensive approach from last year, both in terms of pass volume and style. In 2024, Allen ranked fourth among 38 qualifiers in deep pass rate (15.1%). Palmer’s 15.1-yard aDOT from last year showed he can fill a vertical role for this offense.

Brady also described an ‘everybody eats’ mentality last summer. Buffalo remains without a clear-cut No. 1 WR, so a fairly even distribution of targets wouldn’t surprise us.

Dalton Kincaid

Bottom Line: Kincaid a Candidate to Rebound in '25

Kincaid underwhelmed as an early-round TE in 2024. Now, with Buffalo remaining without a true No. 1 WR, there’s bounce-back appeal. Consider the third-year Bill a fringe TE1 with upside into the top eight.

2024 Summary

Kincaid Disappoints in Year 2

Kincaid totaled 44 catches, 448 yards, and 2 TDs in 13 games last year.

The second-year man finished as a top-12 PPR TE in only four games. He recorded a single top-five fantasy finish.

The downside was frightening, with Kincaid finishing at TE20 or worse in six games. Overall, he ranked TE30 in total PPR points; 22nd in points per game.

Target Share Declined Post-Injury

Kincaid’s usage was affected by a Week 10 PCL sprain.

He saw 6.0 targets per game – a 20.4% share – from Week 1 to Week 9. He averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game (TE15), with an expected points per gamr figure of 10.4 (TE9).

However, over his final six games, Kincaid saw just 4.2 targets per game (14.5% share).

On the year, he finished a distant second in targets behind WR Khalil Shakir.

Efficiency Metrics Show a Mixed Bag

If we remove his mid-game departure in Week 10, here’s how Kincaid performed vs. 2023:

Kincaid improved his yards after catch per reception (6.5 vs. 4.3), despite his average target depth increasing by nearly two yards. He also saw his catchable target rate drop sharply from 89.9% (2023) to 69.0%.

Still, 2024 marked a clear step back for the former first rounder.

Bills Offense Limited Pass Volume

Low pass volume party explains Kincaid’s poor production.

OC Joe Brady’s unit ranked 29th in pass rate, albeit 13th in pass rate over expected. Josh Allen played at an MVP-level, although he averaged a career-low 28.4 passes per game.

Buffalo finished a mid-pack 21st in offensive pace.

Amari Cooper joined the squad ahead of Week 7, but his arrival didn’t negatively impact Kincaid’s target share. The former Brown averaged 4.7 targets per game across seven appearances, inflated by a 14-target outing in Week 14.

Injuries Reveal Need for Improvement

Beyond the Week 10 PCL sprain, Kincaid played through an early-season collarbone injury.

GM Brandon Beane stated his desire for Kincaid to add strength this offseason.

"He's going to have to continue to work on his play strength. He's not as built and muscular as, let's just say, Dawson [Knox] is, and so that's one of the nuances of this game," Beane said in January. "In college you don't play 17 games plus playoffs, so building your body up to withstand what it takes.”

Kincaid missed one game with a concussion in 2023. In college, he sustained a tailbone fracture (November 2022) and an A/C joint sprain (October 2022).

2025 Expectations

Bills Don't Add Major Target Competition

The Bills return their top-three target earners from 2024: WR Khalil Shakir, Kincaid, and WR Keon Coleman.

TE Dawson Knox also returns after averaging 2 targets per game in 2024.

Buffalo added Josh Palmer in free agency, and his contract (3 years, $18 million guaranteed) suggests he’ll play a sizable role. But the addition could be more about adding another deep threat alongside Keon Coleman, rather than an indictment of Kincaid’s play.

Elijah Moore signed a one-year deal after back-to-back 100-target seasons in Cleveland. Perhaps the boost in QB play brings out his best, but Moore’s contract signals he’s not even a lock to make the team.

Shakir ultimately projects as the go-to target. Still, a healthy Kincaid brings the potential to be a co-No. 1.

Josh Allen Elevates Passing Game

Josh Allen remains the engine behind this unit. In 2024, he ranked top 10 in TD rate, success rate, QBR, and yards per attempt.

Per Pro Football Focus, he also led the league in Big Time Throw Rate. PFF defines big-time throws as passes “with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”

Allen’s ability to extend plays also boosts Kincaid’s big-play potential.

The 'Everybody Eats' Mantra

OC Joe Brady returns for his second season as play-caller.

Last year, he instilled an ‘everybody eats’ mantra. Here’s Allen with more on the approach repeating in 2025.

"We're returning a lot of guys,” Allen said in April. “That helps when guys are fresh and understand what Joe's trying to implement and what type of really, mantra - the 'everybody eats.' I think I have the hat on right now. That's not just a one-year thing."

Buffalo remains without a clear-cut No. 1 WR, so a fairly even distribution of targets wouldn’t surprise us. Expect game-to-game fluctuations with target volume, depending on health, performance, and matchups.