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Week 16 Fantasy Football Quarterback Preview

Top Fantasy QBs for Week 16

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs – 1 p.m. ET Saturday

C.J. Stroud, Texans

Stroud's posted a QB1 finish only once over his past 10 games. The Chiefs pass D has disappointed this year – at least relative to expectations – but they’re still not a great matchup. Stroud hits our Week 16 QB rankings at QB19.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

After practicing in full on Wednesday, it looks like Mahomes will try to play through a high-ankle sprain. However, a dip in production – plus the risk of re-injury – forces Mahomes down into QB2 range.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday

Lamar Jackson, Ravens

Jackson is coming off of his best passing performance, completing 84% of his passes for 290 yards and five TDs -- plus 65 yards rushing. The narrative of Jackson failing against the Steelers defense is partially true, but Jalen Hurts just torched the Steelers for a top five QB day. With S DeShon Elliott likely out again, Jackson is a smash start. Don’t overthink it.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr., Falcons

Here’s the simple case against using Penix in Week 16 lineups: It’s his first NFL start. We have no idea what to expect. The rookie has attempted five passes in NFL regular-season games so far. The case for him: Atlanta clearly believes Penix can upgrade the team’s QB play right now. And he probably can’t be worse than Kirk Cousins was over the past five games. If you want to take a shot on Penix in a multi-QB format or deep 1-QB situation, then he certainly presents upside. His big arm should match nicely with WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney, who each bring proven downfield ability. The other question, though, is passing volume. Atlanta shifted to extreme run-heaviness over the past month – the most run-heavy team in the league by pass rate over expected. It’s tough to bet on the Falcons totally flipping that in Penix’s first start, especially against a garbage Giants squad.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

Kyler Murray, Cardinals

Murray is in a great spot this week. His Cardinals have a 25.75-point implied total against the Panthers' 29th-ranked QB defense. But Murray was in a great spot vs. the Patriots last week and flopped. He's now finished QB24, QB18, QB10, and QB24 in fantasy points in his last four games. Consider him a risk/reward fantasy start this week.

Bryce Young, Panthers

Young and the Panthers took a step back last week, scoring just 14 points against the Cowboys. Young tossed exactly 1 TD for the sixth straight game. Although he's generally played better since returning from his benching, he's finished as a top-12 QB in only two of seven games. He's an unexciting QB2 play against the Cardinals' seventh-ranked QB defense this weekend.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Jared Goff, Lions

Sunday turns up Goff’s first true outdoor game of the season. With projected temps around 30 and winds around 10 MPH, it’s notable – but not a huge factor. He draws a Bears pass D allowing only 232 yards and 1 passing score per game. 

Caleb Williams, Bears

Williams looked overwhelmed in Week 15, leading to one of his worst performances of 2024. He's now finished at QB20 or worse eight times this season. Despite a banged-up Lions defense, Williams is best viewed as a QB2.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow, Bengals

Burrow has chained together six straight QB1 weeks and will look to do it again in a solid matchup. He had at least three passing TDs in each of those games as well. It’s a smash spot for Burrow as a high-end QB1.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson, Colts

Despite throwing 2 INTs in each of his past two games, Richardson finished those weeks 11th and 17th among fantasy QBs. In four games back at the helm, he has finished top-17 three times – including a high of second back in Week 11. The Titans enter this matchup having allowed 2+ total TDs to five of the past six QBs they’ve faced. The only guy in that stretch who failed to join was Mac Jones.

Mason Rudolph, Titans

Rudolph actually presents upside beyond this position. He has finished three straight appearances among the top 15 fantasy QBs for that week. The most recent came in just a half’s worth of work last week. But the Colts’ D has played better lately, including allowing the third-fewest QB points per game over the past five weeks. Rudolph’s ultimately a low-floor, modest-ceiling option. He’s OK if you’re reaching, but otherwise not worth reaching for.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers, Jets

Rodgers is coming off his biggest fantasy outing of the season and has registered two of his four best Pro Football Focus passing grades of the year over the last two weeks. He has a good chance to keep rolling this weekend at home for the Rams, who rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Matt Stafford, Rams

Stafford is coming off a Week 15 dud in a rainy game against a tough 49ers pass defense. He's still finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in three of his last five games, though. And he gets an easier Week 16 matchup against the Jets' 21st-ranked QB defense. The biggest concern for Stafford here is the Rams going run-heavy against a New York defense that ranks 27th in pass rate over expected against.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Jalen Hurts, Eagles

The Philly passing offense was legitimately struggling for three weeks ahead of last Sunday’s win over the Steelers. But Hurts and his WRs flipped that against a tough D. His 78% completions and 290 yards were his second-highest marks of the season in those categories. It’s much easier to bet on him fully against Washington. Even a relatively disappointing first meeting with the Commanders – 221 yards, no TDs passing – still found Hurts topping 20 fantasy points and landing 15th among QBs.

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Daniels endured his second-worst fantasy outing of the season in the first meeting with Philly – a week after his worst outing vs. Pittsburgh. But he proved more efficient against the EAgles, completing 68.8% of his passes compared with 50% in the Steelers game. More importantly, Daniels has rebounded for three straight top-7 finishes and delivered top-12 finishes in 10 of 13 games. This is a matter of rolling with your stud – unless, of course, you also have a QB we project higher for this week.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold, Vikings

Darnold's reached 2+ passing TDs in six of his past eight matchups. Meanwhile, the Vikings are up to third in pass rate over expected. He remains a QB1 in a neutral matchup.

Geno Smith, Seahawks

Smith (knee) was a full participant in practice on Wednesday/Thursday, putting him in line to start vs. Minnesota. He hasn’t hit 20 fantasy points since Week 11 and remains off the QB1 radar.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen, Bills

Allen has two straight weeks with over 40 fantasy points. His rushing usage puts his potential off the charts, and the Patriots are another prime matchup for Allen.

Drake Maye, Patriots

Maye finished as a QB1 last week despite an awful performance for three quarters. His rushing upside gives him a solid floor each week, and if the Patriots have to play catch-up, he could be a solid QB2 day. The Patriots enter the weekend as 14-point underdogs.

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins

Brock Purdy, 49ers

We’ll bet on Purdy rebounding from an ugly, rainy, Thursday night game vs. the Rams. While LT Trent Williams will likely remain out, the Dolphins hit the week just 17th in team pressure rate.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

Tua came back to earth last week, throwing for only 196 yards and 3 INTs on 29 completions. We’ll see if Jaylen Waddle can overcome an ankle injury and play. Regardless, Tagovailoa projects as a risky QB1 against a solid 49ers pass defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys – Sunday night

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers

Mayfield threw for 288 yards and four TDs last week and enters another spike potential matchup against the Cowboys secondary. Dallas creates pressure, ranking fourth league-wide in pressure rate. That could force Mayfield into making some poor decisions, but in his current form, the veteran remains a clear QB1. 

Cooper Rush, Cowboys

Rush had a surprising QB1 week against the Panthers, throwing three TDs. He is in a solid matchup against the Buccaneers, and the Cowboys could get behind, forcing boosted attempts. With Rush’s quick release, he can neutralize the Bucs blitzing, giving him solid potential. He is a QB2 this week.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers – Monday night

Jordan Love, Packers

Love has gone four straight games without finishing higher than QB13 in fantasy. But his only real problem has been a lack of passing volume. Green Bay has let him throw just 23 passes per game over the past five weeks, compared with 34.3 per game across his first seven appearances this year. Love has still managed to throw a pair of TD passes in three of his past four outings and combine a rushing score with high passing efficiency to deliver a QB11 week on just 17 pass attempts in a Week 11 visit to Chicago. Expect solid-to-strong efficiency against a soft New Orleans defense, making Love at least a high-floor option.

Week 16 Fantasy Preview Podcast

Get the fantasy football start em sit em recommendations for Week 16:

Kevin English, Senior Analyst

Kevin brings 15 years of experience as a fantasy analyst and mid-stakes competitor across various formats (redraft, best ball, dynasty, DFS). His work has been featured on The Mercury News, Rotoworld, and FantasyPros.