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Week 16 Tight End Preview: Can We Still Trust Travis Kelce?
Top Fantasy TEs for Week 16
Let's break down the key usage notes and matchups that are driving our Week 16 TE Rankings.
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1. Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
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McBride is averaging 23.3 PPR points per game since QB Jacoby Brissett took over in Week 16. That's 6.4 points clear of every other TE and ranks fourth among ALL skill-position players. The Falcons rank 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs over the last five weeks.
2. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
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Kittle is rolling, with top-6 PPR finishes in four of his last five games. Next up is a Colts defense sitting 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. WR Ricky Pearsall's expected absence could push even more targets Kittle's way. He has big fantasy upside on Monday night.
3. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
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WR Drake London's return would dent Pitts' target projection. But how are you sitting this guy after he just scored the fifth-most PPR points by a TE in NFL history? The Cardinals rank 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs on the season and 29th over the last five weeks.
4. Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
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Houston has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to TEs, but they got worked over by Trey McBride last week. Still, Jacboy Brissett is a massive upgrade over Geno Smith, so we're not expecting that kind of output from Bowers. Bowers should lead the Raiders in targets and could potentially rack up some garbage time production, so view him as a top-5 option.
5. Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns
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Fannin posted a huge 95% route rate last week in a game played without David Njoku (knee). The result? Fannin’s third-straight double-digit PPR outing. There’s a chance Njoku misses another game, which would only boost the rookie’s ceiling vs. Buffalo.
6. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
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Kelce went 7-70-0 on 9 targets this week, including catching 3 of 4 targets from QB Gardner Minshew. Kelce could be the one Chief to benefit from Minshew starting. The game plan should focus on short targets to the slot, where Minshew excels. The Titans have allowed five top-12 TE performances over the last six weeks. This is a spot to start Kelce.
7. Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
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Last week marked the first time this season that Goedert reached four catches in two consecutive games. The Week 15 volume was especially noteworthy because Jalen Hurts threw only 15 passes in that game. Washington arrives to this matchup as the second-friendliest scoring matchup for TEs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.
8. Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
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Schultz quietly enters the fantasy semi-finals as a top-10 TE in PPR scoring. He's been particularly effective in the second half of the season. Schultz has topped 11 PPR points in five of his last seven games. View him as a top-10 option for the surging Texans.
9. Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears
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With all the injuries in Chicago's WR corps, we're expecting the Bears to feature a lot of '12' personnel with Loveland and Cole Kmet. Last week, Loveland was tied for second on the Bears with a 19% target share. He has 5+ targets in his past four games with double-digit PPR points in three of the four. Forecasting an expanded route and target share, Loveland will be in a good position to post top-10 fantasy numbers against a solid Green Bay defense.
10. Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
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Ferguson's mere 2 catches last week marked the first time since Week 8 (at Denver) that he fell short of 4 receptions. The Chargers come in as a difficult scoring matchup for all facets of the passing game. That positions Ferguson as a decent PPR floor play with an unexciting ceiling.
11. Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
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Kincaid (knee) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. If active, he’ll remain a boom-or-bust TE1 while on a limited route rate. The Bills are implied for 26 points, tied for fourth-highest on the slate.
12. Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
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Johnson has remained a steady producer, with 4+ catches in five straight games. He could get a target boost on Sunday with WR Devaughn Vele out. And he gets a nice matchup indoors against a lifeless Jets defense that ranks 15th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs on the season.
13. Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams
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Played Thursday night.
14. Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers
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Gadsden rebounded for a 4-61 receiving line at Kansas City last week, his first outing in five games with more than 3 catches. But he still drew a mere five targets in the Chargers' intentionally limited passing offense. Gadsden has exceeded five targets just once among the past seven contests. He's OK as a TE2-level option in a game with some shootout potential, with upside boosted by the leaky Dallas pass defense. But the rookie remains unattractive thanks to the recent status of his passing game.
15. Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
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Henry draws a Ravens pass defense that’s performed a top-five unit vs. TEs. Still, the former Charger has proven useful this year with six top-15 fantasy finishes. That includes two finishes as the overall TE1. Henry’s in the TE1 mix in what could turn into a shootout vs. Baltimore.
16. Brenton Strange, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Strange has followed his 5-93 return from IR with three straight games of 3 receptions or fewer. There's some upside to a Denver matchup that's been negative for QB, RB, and WR scoring but positive for TEs (12th-highest in our adjusted fantasy points allowed rankings).
17. Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
Warren drew a team-high 22% target share from QB Philip Rivers last week. That's where the good news ends. Rivers threw just 27 passes for 120 yards, and Warren finished with a 3-19-0 line on his six targets. There's very little upside to be mined in this Rivers-led passing game. Warren is at least in a good spot on Monday night indoors against the 49ers' 22nd-ranked TE defense.
18. Theo Johnson, New York Giants
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If you're looking for consistency, Johnson is your guy. He’s caught exactly 3 balls in seven of his last eight games. His yardage output has been a little more erratic, going up, then down every other week for most of the second half of the season. Johnson has a solid floor and has topped double-digit fantasy points in three of his last five outings. Minnesota allows 12.8 PPR points per game to TEs, which is just above average. Johnson's floor makes him a mid-range TE2 in the semi-finals.
19. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
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Here are Andrews’ PPR totals over his past four games: 2.1, 8.7, 1.9, 3.8. His route rate is a solid 72% over that stretch, but inconsistent target counts continue to make him a fantasy TE2.
20. Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins
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Waller will play alongside rookie QB Quinn Ewers, who’s making his NFL debut vs. the Bengals. Ewers’ college career showed a talented but inconsistent passer, one who battled several injuries. Perhaps he’s a playmaking upgrade on Tua Tagovailoa. And there’s no doubt Cincy supplies an excellent matchup. But we’d still be hesitant to trust Waller beyond TE2 range in the fantasy playoffs.
21. A.J. Barner, Seattle Seahawks
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Played Thursday night.
22. T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
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Hockenson has scored 9+ PPR points in three straight games. A rise in targets has helped. Since Week 13, Hockenson is up to a 19% target share, which ranks third on the team. This week's matchup looks neutral. The Giants have played so poorly against WRs and RBs that they've allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to TEs. If you've gotten by this long with Hockenson in your lineup, he's still a low-end TE2, but he's not a player to go out of your way to squeeze into your lineup.
23. Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens
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Likely was held off the stat sheet in Week 15, but we can excuse that because of low pass volume from Lamar Jackson (12 attempts). A low route rate remains the real issue here, as he hasn’t hit 60% since Week 11. While the Pats matchup is favorable, Likely remains a volatile fantasy option.
24. Evan Engram, Denver Broncos
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Engram stoked some hope with a 6-79 receiving line in a high-volume, OT game at Washington. But he has followed that with just 3 catches for 20 yards on five targets over the past two weeks. This isn't your guy for floor or ceiling potential.
25. Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Otton was out last week, but should be back this week. He hasn’t had a TD yet this season, though TE Devin Culp did catch one last week. Nothing about Otton screams to start him against the Panthers.
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