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Buy/Sell/Hold Report #2

BUY Texans passing game

That’s Will Fuller streaking downfield for a 75-yard TD in this past week’s game against the Panthers … only to be overthrown by Deshaun Watson by a few feet.

The picture is a perfect representation of Houston’s passing game through the season’s 1st month. They just haven’t been able to hit the big play. The Texans rank 21st with 11 completions of 20+ yards and 16th with 2 completions of 40+.

The offensive line is definitely a problem. Watson has taken 4.5 sacks per game and been pressured on 46.8% of his drop backs — both bottom 3 marks.

But the O-line sucked last year, too. Watson “led” the league with 3.9 sacks per game and was pressured on 44.7% of his drop backs. That didn’t stop him from finishing 4th among QBs in fantasy points. Or DeAndre Hopkins from leading his position in fantasy points. Or Will Fuller from finishing 21st among WRs in points per game.

Simply put, Watson is too good and his pass-catching corps too explosive to continue struggling like they have through 4 weeks.

The schedule should help the Texans passing game get rolling. Three of their first 4 opponents currently rank inside the top 16 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Houston’s next 4 opponents rank 23rd, 14th, 19th and 28th.

Look into acquiring Watson, Hopkins and/or Fuller before a prime breakout spot at home for the Falcons this Sunday.

BUY David Montgomery, RB, Bears

The Leonard Fournette Corollary says you should buy Montgomery right now.

We issued a BUY order on Fournette in the 1st Buy/Sell/Hold Report, citing the elite volume he was seeing. Eleven days later, he busted out for 245 yards against the Broncos.

Montgomery isn’t quite getting elite usage. But it’s certainly been much better than you’d think if you’re just looking at his fantasy-point totals. Since a quiet Week 1, the rookie’s opportunities (carries + targets) have gone 21, 16, 26 over the past 3 games. Only 7 RBs have totaled more opportunities during that stretch.

Montgomery’s snap rate has also climbed each week, from 38% to 45% to 65% to 69%.

He’s seeing borderline RB1 usage but is still sitting just 29th among at his position in fantasy points due to subpar efficiency and just 1 total TD. That efficiency will bounce back — like it did for Fournette. And so should the TDs, considering Montgomery ranks top 16 in both carries inside the 10-yard line and the 5.

BUY Josh Gordon, WR, Patriots

Here’s how OC Josh McDaniels assessed Gordon’s play through 4 weeks:

“Josh is doing well. He’s ready to go, he practices well, he practices hard, he really studies the game plan. He’s moved into multiple positions this year, whereas last year he was more in one spot most of the time. And honestly, I need to do a better job of finding ways to get him the ball throughout the course of the game in whatever role or position that we’re asking him to play.”

Hurt by a few drops, Gordon’s been inconsistent thus far. After a big Week 1 (3-73-1), he’s tallied an underwhelming 11-148-0 line over his last 3.

But let’s take a step back for a moment. Remember, Gordon didn’t return to the Pats until mid-August. He played 1 preseason game (Week 4). And he took a clear step back in Week 2 with the Pats feeding Antonio Brown.

Gordon’s still the Pats’ #2 WR behind Julian Edelman, who’s playing through a chest injury. This WR corps also gets the easiest remaining schedule, per our Strength of Schedule tool. The toughest matchup — a rematch with Buffalo — doesn’t come until Week 16.

Bottom line: This might be your last time to get Gordon at a good price, as he enters a favorable scoring matchup vs. Washington on Sunday.

BUY Curtis Samuel, WR, Panthers

Samuel sits just 45th among WRs in PPR points. But his usage suggests that better days are ahead.

He’s tied for the team lead and ranks 26th among all WRs with 31 targets. Samuel is also tied for the team lead (with Christian McCaffrey) with 14 targets from QB Kyle Allen over the past 2 weeks.

More importantly, Samuel sits 8th among all WRs in air yards. That means he’s getting chances to make big plays downfield. Just this past week, Allen underthrew Samuel deep down the left sideline for what should have been a gain of 50+ yards. (Samuel came back to the ball and drew a pass-interference penalty — but we don’t get fantasy points for that.)

The rest-of-season schedule looks nice, too. Samuel still has games against the Bucs, Redskins and Falcons (twice), who all sit in the bottom 6 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

SELL Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

If you drafted Gurley in Round 2 (or later), then he has been fine so far. Fantasy owners collectively panicked a bit after Malcolm Brown scored the 2 Week 1 rushing TDs, but Gurley has since pumped in 3 total scores of his own and maintained his lead in Rams backfield opportunities: 65.3% of RB carries and 85% of RB targets. Things have changed in L.A., though.

First of all, the Rams aren’t relying on the run quite so much. They’ve run on just 34.9% of offensive snaps so far, 7th lowest in the league. Of course, that includes Sunday’s 70 drop backs in the loss to the Buccaneers. The 3 games before that -- 3 victories -- saw L.A. run on 43.7% of its snaps. That would seem to be in line with the 43.3% run rate of 2018 and 45.4% of 2017 … right?

Not really. The Rams ran on 47.2% of plays in games they won in 2018. They ran on 48.9% of plays in wins in 2017. So they’re running it less win or lose so far.

And Gurley’s shares are down. His 65.3% of RB carries looks good vs. the rest of the league. But Gurley handled 84.5% of last year’s RB carries over his 14 active games and 78.8% of his 15 games in 2017. Gurley has also gone from an 18% share of Rams targets in 2017 to 15.7% last year and then just 9.8% this season. Even that low number is inflated by the 11 looks he got in the loss to Tampa.

Gurley’s 2 TD runs against the Bucs looked good, but don’t overlook that the Rams entered that contest with a clear passing focus -- even before Tampa took over. The 10 plays L.A. ran before the Buccaneers’ 2nd TD (which opened a 14-0 lead) saw 9 passes and 1 Cooper Kupp rush.

That doesn’t sound like the approach a Todd Gurley team should take against any opponent.

The Rams have been fine on offense so far, ranking 11th in Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA through 4 weeks. But “fine” isn’t the offense we were buying at draft time. This offense ranked 2nd in that category last season and 6th the year before. The Rams have dropped from 6.4 yards per play in 2018 to just 5.7 this season.

Then there’s Gurley’s performance. He has finished 3 straight games under 4.0 yards per carry. Don’t believe in that stat? He also checks in just 39th in overall Pro Football Focus grade among RBs. That’s down from 19th last season and tied for 4th in 2017.

Football Outsiders says Gurley has rated 15th in rushing DYAR and 10th in DVOA among 36 qualifying RBs this season, but even that’s down from 1st and 1st last year; 2nd and 4th in 2017.

And we haven’t even talked about the possibility that Gurley’s knee wears down late in the season -- even with the team trying to manage his workload.

You should not panic and unload Gurley for whatever deal you can muster. He can be less than the previous Todd Gurley and still help your fantasy team the rest of the way. The Rams can be less than the previous Rams and still run an enviable offense.

But if you can find someone willing to pay for what Gurley and the Rams were over the 1st half of last season, then you just might want to make that move.

SELL Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons

Freeman has stunk so far. You should treat the fact that he still ranks 25th among RBs in PPR points as a potential “sell” window rather than reason for optimism.

Out of 36 qualifying RBs, 33 rank higher than Freeman in Football Outsiders’ rushing DVOA so far. He’s even 17 spots too low to be the top Freeman on that list (behind Royce).

Devonta Freeman has fared better on the receiving side, where he ranks 26th in DVOA … right behind Dare Ogunbowale and Jordan Howard.

Freeman does sit slightly ahead of Ito Smith in that category, but well behind his teammate in rushing DVOA. Pro Football Focus has Freeman 71st in overall grade among 91 RBs; Smith 58th.

That might be the biggest risk factor for Freeman -- and the key question. Ito Smith has out-performed him on the ground so far, whether you go by the advanced metrics, yards per carry (5.7 vs. 3.3) or your eyes.

Will Falcons coaches switch their roles at some point, giving the ball more to the younger, better-performing back? We wouldn’t be surprised. HC Dan Quinn is in Year 5, coming off a 7-9 campaign. OC Dirk Koetter just got fired from his head gig in Tampa. Those seats could get hot.

And even if that doesn’t happen, this doesn’t look like a team that’s close to generating regular RB-friendly game scripts. The O-line ranks just 25th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards. The offense on whole ranks just 21st in DVOA. A soft defense is actually performing the best, at just 16th in DVOA.

Go hit up an RB-needy team in your league to see what kind of package you can draw with Freeman plus another piece -- or shoot for a solid #2 WR in a 1-for-1 deal if you’re in good shape at RB.

HOLD Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings

Diggs is a hold-then-sell because he has 2 plus matchups on tap. He gets the Giants’ 24th-ranked WR defense this Sunday followed by the Eagles’ 30th-ranked unit the following week. We won’t be surprised if Diggs follows his 100+ yard Week 4 with another nice game or 2.

But he’s going to disappoint over the balance of the season. This Vikings passing game doesn’t have the volume or efficiency to support 2 fantasy-viable WRs on a weekly basis.

You know about the lack of volume: Minnesota ranks 31st in pass rate (45.4%) and dead last in pass attempts per game (24.8).

But just as troublesome is Kirk Cousins’ play. He sits 22nd in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades among 26 QBs with 100+ drop backs this season. Football Outsiders ranks Cousins 30th among 34 qualifiers in both of their performance metrics.

Diggs will still pop up for a few more big games this season because he’s good at football. But the lack of volume will ultimately crush him.

You can hope for a big game or 2 over the next 2 weeks to boost Diggs’ trade value. But we’re also not against just selling him off right now.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.