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Tennessee Titans Fantasy Forecast: Can Cam Ward Spark This Offense?

Cam Ward should be an immediate upgrade for the Titans — and could make this an undervalued offense in 2025 fantasy drafts.
By Jared Smola | Updated on Thu, May 29 2025 2:17 PM UTC

    

 

Tennessee Titans 2025 Overview

Schedule

Week 1 at DEN Week 10 BYE
Week 2 vs. LAR Week 11 vs. HOU
Week 3 vs. IND Week 12 vs. SEA
Week 4 at HOU Week 13 vs. JAC
Week 5 at ARI Week 14 at CLE
Week 6 at LV Week 15 at SF
Week 7 vs. NE Week 16 vs. KC
Week 8 at IND Week 17 vs. NO
Week 9 vs. LAC Week 18 at JAC

 

Wins

2024

3

2025 Over/Under

5.5

 

Play Calling

2024 2025 Projections
Plays Per Game 60.7 61.7
Pass Rate 56.4% 58.7%
Run Rate 43.6% 41.3%

       

Key Additions

  • QB Cam Ward
  • WR Tyler Lockett
  • WR Van Jefferson
  • WR Elic Ayomanor
  • WR Chimere Dike
  • TE Gunnar Helm
  • G Kevin Zeitler
Cam Ward

Key Departures

  • WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
  • WR Tyler Boyd
Headshot of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Notable Coaching Changes

  • None

 

Cam Ward

Bottom Line:

Ward, who’s a strong bet to be Tennessee’s Week 1 starter, boasts an intriguing combination of arm talent and athleticism. There’s long-term QB1 upside here. But with an iffy supporting cast this season, Ward should only be drafted as a QB2.

2024 Summary

College Production

A Wing-T QB who didn’t put up big numbers in high school, Ward flew under the recruiting radar and started his college career at Incarnate Word.

He dominated the lower-level competition from the jump, winning Freshman of the Year honors in 2020 and then leading the FCS with 47 passing TDs in 2021.

Ward parlayed that success into a starting job at Washington State, where he threw for 6,968 yards and 48 TDs on a 65.5% completion rate across the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He tacked on another 12 scores on the ground.

Ward originally declared for the 2024 NFL Draft but changed his mind after reportedly getting Round 3 and 4 grades. He entered the transfer protocol and landed in Miami.

Ward posted new personal bests last year in:

  • Completion rate (67.2%)
  • Passing yards (4,313)
  • Yards per attempt (9.5)

Ward ranked second in the nation in passing yards and first with 39 TDs. He added 336 yards and four scores rushing.

Ward was named a First-Team All-American and won the Davey O’Brien Award given to the nation’s top QB.

Efficiency Metrics

Ward ranked second in Pro Football Focus passing grade last year among 114 qualifiers — behind only Jaxson Dart and just ahead of Shedeur Sanders. He completed a strong 67.2% of his passes on a big 9.8-yard average target depth.

An aggressive passer, Ward registered a 6.3% Big Time Throw Rate, which Pro Football Focus defines as “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” That tied for seventh highest among those 114 qualifying QBs.

Ward was especially good throwing downfield last year. An FBS-high 56% of his completions went for 10+ yards. He ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grade.

Film Notes

Ward is a gunslinger with plenty of arm strength to all levels of the field. He also has impressive improv ability, keeping his eyes downfield when plays break down. 

Ward’s accuracy comes and goes due to inconsistent mechanics, though. And he’s sometimes guilty of playing hero ball, resulting in too many sacks and turnovers.

While he’s not an elite athlete, he’ll add value with his legs. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler said it best: “Mahomes-like scrambler — not fast but runs with savvy and takes yards the defense gives him.”

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Titans reportedly turned down at least one trade offer, keeping the first overall pick of this spring’s draft to take Ward.

That makes him the heavy favorite to be the Week 1 starter. Eight QBs were selected first overall over the previous 10 drafts. Six of them were under center for the season opener (Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield were the exceptions).

With Will Levis as his top competition, look for Ward to be piloting the Titans offense come Week 1.

Supporting Cast

Calvin Ridley returns as Tennessee’s top WR. He’s coming off his second straight 1,000-yard season, averaging a big 15.9 yards per catch. Ridley ranked 31st in yards per route and 37th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade among 84 qualifying WRs last year.

The pecking order behind Ridley is up in the air. 

The Titans added WRs Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett in free agency, but neither is a difference-maker at this point. 

The NFL Draft brought WRs Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor in Round 4. Ayomanor, a 6’2, 206-pounder with strong college production, is one of our favorite sleepers in the WR class. Tennessee also added undrafted rookie WR Xavier Restrepo, who was Ward’s top target at Miami last year. 

WR Treylon Burks remains on Tennessee’s roster. He’s working back from ACL surgery and can’t be counted on as a significant contributor.

Chig Okonkwo projects as the Titans’ lead TE. He’s finished with between 450 and 528 receiving yards in each of his first three NFL seasons. But he closed last year impressively, with 287 yards over his final six healthy games.

It’s an unproven pass-catching corps overall. But Ridley is a legitimate No. 1 WR, and there’s potential behind him.

The offensive line is in better shape than the pass-catching corps. 2023 first-round G Peter Skoronski and 2024 first-round RT J.C. Latham are ascending talents. The Titans poached reliable G Kevin Zeitler from the Lions in free agency. And they’re hoping former Steeler Dan Moore can hold down the LT spot.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Brian Callahan returns for his second season as Titans HC. The year one results were ugly, with Tennessee ranking 26th or worse in points, total yards, and passing yards. But Callahan never had much of a chance with a QB room of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

His results as Bengals OC from 2019 through 2023 were better. Cincinnati ranked top-16 in points in Callahan’s final three seasons, including seventh-place finishes in 2021 and 2022.

Callahan deployed a pass-leaning offense in Cincinnati, with four of his five teams registering a pass rate north of 60%. The Titans, by comparison, threw on just 56.4% of their offensive snaps last year.

Callahan’s Bengals tenure included QB Joe Burrow’s 2020 rookie season. Burrow missed the final six games of that year with a knee injury. But the Bengals registered a 63.8% pass rate and 63.3% neutral pass rate in Burrow’s 10 games. Those were both top-three marks in the league.

Burrow was a better prospect than Ward. And that 2020 Bengals team had WRs A.J. Green, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. So we’re not expecting Callahan to go as pass-heavy this year with the Titans. But he’s clearly not afraid to let a rookie QB chuck it.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Only seven rookie QBs have finished top-12 at the position in fantasy points per game as rookies over the last 10 seasons. 

  • Dak Prescott 
  • Deshaun Watson 
  • Kyler Murray
  • Justin Herbert 
  • C.J. Stroud
  • Jayden Daniels
  • Bo Nix 

Four of those QBs topped 25 rushing yards per game. Ward will likely need to hit that mark if he has a chance at QB1-level production in 2025. We currently project him for 17.4 rushing yards per game.

 

Tony Pollard

Headshot of Tony Pollard

Bottom Line:

Pollard scored as a low-end RB2 last year, although he sunk into RB3 territory when backfield mate Tyjae Spears was healthy. Expect similar usage for Pollard in 2025 — hopefully in an improved offense led by rookie QB Cam Ward. He’s a passable RB2 and a nice RB3 on fantasy rosters.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Pollard played 16 of 17 games last year, totaling 1,079 rushing yards, 238 receiving yards, and five total TDs. He finished 22nd among RBs in both total PPR points and PPR points per game.

Pollard played six games in which RB Tyjae Spears was out or limited, averaging 14.6 PPR points per game. In 10 games with a healthy Spears, Pollard averaged 11.5 points per game. That ranked just 30th among RBs.

Usage & Role

Pollard ranked 20th among RBs in expected PPR points per game on the season. He ranked 13th in his six games without a healthy Spears but fell to 23rd in the other 10 games.

Here’s how the work was divvied between them across those 10 games:

Pollard
  • 13.3 carries per game (57.3% share)
  • 3.5 targets per game (11.3% share)
Spears
  • 5.8 carries per game (25.0% share)
  • 2.9 targets per game (9.4% share)

Efficiency Metrics

Pollard averaged 4.2 yards per carry last year, despite playing behind an offensive line that ranked 31st in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades and 25th in adjusted line yards.

Among 47 RBs with 90+ carries last year, Pollard ranked:

  • 27th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt
  • 9th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 31st in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

Pollard beat Spears in yards after contact per attempt and PFF rushing grade; Spears held the edge in missed tackles forced per attempt.

Spears also beat Pollard in yards per route and PFF receiving grade. Among 37 RBs league-wide with 30+ targets, Pollard ranked 31st in yards per route and 33rd in receiving grade.

Historical Production & Trends

2024 was a nice bounce back from Pollard after an inefficient 2023 with the Cowboys. He improved his:

  • Yards per carry (4.0 to 4.2)
  • Rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.16 to 0.05)
  • Yards after contact per attempt (2.92 to 3.40)

Last year’s marks still fell short of Pollard’s averages over his first four seasons, when he was handling less rushing volume.

Injury History

Pollard battled through an ankle injury for the final few games of last season but only missed Week 17 with the flu.

He went down in the 2022 NFL playoffs with a broken left fibula and high-ankle sprain that required surgery.

Pollard also missed one game as a rookie in 2019 with an ankle injury.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Titans added RB Kalel Mullings in the sixth round of this spring’s draft. GM Mike Borgonzi talked up his ability in short-yardage situations, but Mullings is unlikely to be a factor as long as Pollard and Spears are healthy.

HC Brian Callahan said in May that he's looking for a more even distribution of touches this season between Pollard and Spears.

“Hopefully that division of labor gets a little more evenly distributed so [Pollard] doesn't have to take the brunt of it,” Callahan said. “And we can get 17 games out of all those guys at their best.”

Pollard remains the favorite to lead this backfield in touches, but he might cede more work to Spears than he did last year.

Supporting Cast

The Titans hope they’ve found a solution at QB in first overall pick Cam Ward. Although his mechanics and accuracy are inconsistent, Ward has plus arm talent and athleticism. He should be an immediate upgrade over last year’s duo of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

Tennessee also made some moves to hopefully bolster the offensive line, adding G Kevin Zeitler and OT Dan Moore in free agency. Zeitler is a reliable vet, while Moore is a bit of a wildcard after an up-and-down four seasons in Pittsburgh. 2023 first-round G Peter Skoronski and 2024 first-round RT J.C. Latham are candidates for leaps forward in 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Brian Callahan returns for his second season as Titans HC. The year one results were ugly, with Tennessee ranking 26th in total yards and 27th in points. But Callahan never had much of a chance with a QB room of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

His results as Bengals OC from 2019 through 2023 were better. Cincinnati ranked top-16 in points in Callahan’s final three seasons, including seventh-place finishes in 2021 and 2022.

All five of Callahan’s Bengals teams registered pass rates north of 58%, with four of them topping 60%. Last year’s Titans threw on just 56.4% of their offensive plays — 19th in the NFL.

That was likely at least partly due to the poor QB play. If Ward proves to be an upgrade, we’d expect the Titans to throw at least a little more in 2025.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Pollard will play this upcoming season at 28 years old. Our aging-curve research shows that RBs, on average, produce between 75-80% of their peak at age-28. That’s down from 84-85% at 27.

Pollard shouldn’t tumble over the age cliff this season, but his best days are likely behind him.

 

Tyjae Spears

Headshot of Tyjae Spears

Bottom Line:

Spears dealt with a multitude of injuries last year, ultimately finishing 41st among RBs in PPR points per game. He’ll likely open this season as Tennessee’s No. 2 RB but could push Tony Pollard for work with better health. At minimum, Spears is a valuable handcuff to stash on your bench.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

It felt like Spears was never healthy last year.

He tweaked an ankle in Week 2 and then pulled a hamstring in Week 6, missing the next three games. Spears returned for just one full game before sustaining a concussion in Week 11. That cost him another game. Spears was concussed again in Week 17 and missed the season finale.

Spears officially played 12 games last year, finishing 41st among RBs in PPR points per game. If we omit Weeks 2, 6, and 11, his scoring average climbs to 32nd at the position.

Usage & Role

With RB Tony Pollard sidelined for Week 17, Spears got workhorse usage before his concussion. He played 65% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps, drawing 20 carries and four targets.

But in 10 games with a healthy Pollard, Spears was the clear No. 2 RB. Here’s how the work was divvied across those games:

Pollard
  • 13.3 carries per game (57.3% share)
  • 3.5 targets per game (11.3% share)
Spears
  • 5.8 carries per game (25.0% share)
  • 2.9 targets per game (9.4% share)

Spears ranked 41st among RBs in expected PPR points per game in those 10 outings.

Efficiency Metrics

Spears mustered just 3.7 yards per carry last year — 44th among 51 RBs with 80+ carries.

He didn’t get much help from an offensive line that ranked 31st in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades and 25th in adjusted line yards. But Spears also ranked just 38th among those 51 RBs in yards after contact per attempt. He was better in terms of missed tackles forced per attempt, finishing 16th.

Spears beat backfield mate Pollard in missed tackles forced per attempt, but Pollard won in yards after contact per attempt and PFF rushing grade.

Spears was more efficient as a receiver, posting an 85.7% catch rate and 7.5 yards per catch. He ranked 18th in yards per target and 13th in yards per route among 40 RBs with 30+ targets.

Spears beat Pollard in both metrics.

Historical Production & Trends

Spears was a more efficient runner in a healthy 2023 rookie season. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry and, among 49 qualifying RBs, ranked:

  • 11th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 4th in missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 32nd in rush yards over expected per attempt
  • 21st in Pro Football Focus rush grade

Injury History

Spears tore his right ACL in high school in 2015. He tore that same ACL — and suffered a meniscus tear — at Tulane in 2020. Medical evaluations at the 2023 Combine revealed “a full thickness cartilage loss and no ACL in his knee. Plus arthritis," according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

That knee has held up in the NFL so far. It seems like more of a long-term concern than an issue in 2025.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Titans added RB Kalel Mullings in the sixth round of this spring’s draft. GM Mike Borgonzi talked up his ability in short-yardage situations, but Mullings is unlikely to be a factor as long as Pollard and Spears are healthy.

HC Brian Callahan said in May that he's looking for a more even distribution of touches this season between Pollard and Spears.

“Hopefully that division of labor gets a little more evenly distributed so [Pollard] doesn't have to take the brunt of it,” Callahan said. “And we can get 17 games out of all those guys at their best.”

Pollard remains the favorite to lead this backfield in touches, but Spears could siphon more work if he stays healthy and rediscovers his rookie-year form.

Supporting Cast

The Titans hope they’ve found a solution at QB in first overall pick Cam Ward. Although his mechanics and accuracy are inconsistent, Ward has plus arm talent and athleticism. He should be an immediate upgrade over last year’s duo of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

Tennessee also made some moves to hopefully bolster the offensive line, adding G Kevin Zeitler and OT Dan Moore in free agency. Zeitler is a reliable vet, while Moore is a bit of a wildcard after an up-and-down four seasons in Pittsburgh. 2023 first-round G Peter Skoronski and 2024 first-round RT J.C. Latham are candidates for leaps forward in 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Brian Callahan returns for his second season as Titans HC. The year one results were ugly, with Tennessee ranking 26th in total yards and 27th in points. But Callahan never had much of a chance with a QB room of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

His results as Bengals OC from 2019 through 2023 were better. Cincinnati ranked top-16 in points in Callahan’s final three seasons, including seventh-place finishes in 2021 and 2022.

All five of Callahan’s Bengals teams registered pass rates north of 58%, with four of them topping 60%. Last year’s Titans threw on just 56.4% of their offensive plays — 19th in the NFL.

That was likely at least partly due to the poor QB play. If Ward proves to be an upgrade, we’d expect the Titans to throw at least a little more in 2025.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Spears should still be on the ascent at 24 years old. In fact, our aging-curve research shows that many RBs peak at 24.

It’s likely that his efficiency dip last season was due to the injuries. Don’t be surprised if he bounces back to his 2023 level of play this season.

 

Calvin Ridley

Headshot of Calvin Ridley

Bottom Line:

Ridley did well to top 1,000 yards and finish 42nd among WRs in PPR points per game last year considering Tennessee’s poor QB play. He remains the team’s clear No. 1 WR heading into 2025. If rookie QB Cam Ward can be an immediate upgrade, Ridley could prove to be a nice value at ADP.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Ridley caught 64 balls for 1,017 yards and four TDs across 17 games last year. He ranked 35th among WRs in catches, 18th in yards, and 48th in TDs.

Ridley finished 27th at the position in total PPR points but just 42nd in points per game.

He was a volatile weekly producer, with three top-6 finishes but nine weeks at WR40 or worse.

Usage & Role

Ridley’s volatility sprung from his extreme downfield usage. His 16.0-yard average target depth was fourth highest among 84 WRs with 50+ targets last year. A little over 23% of his targets went 20+ yards downfield. Only five WRs had more total deep targets than Ridley’s 28.

He was also hurt by a lack of scoring opportunities. Ridley saw just two end-zone targets all season — tied for 108th among WRs. He tied for 24th at the position with 25 red-zone targets, but his 3.8 expected receiving TDs ranked just 59th.

Ridley finished 37th among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

Ridley caught a career-low 53.3% of his targets last year but averaged a career-high 15.9 yards per catch — no surprise considering the high average target depth.

Ridley was not particularly efficient on his deep targets. His 35.7% catch rate on targets 20+ yards downfield ranked 42nd among 72 qualifying WRs. He caught 58.7% of the rest of his targets.

Ridley’s 8.5 yards per target and 1.86 yards per route were his best marks since 2020, though. They ranked 35th and 31st, respectively, among 84 WRs with 50+ targets. Ridley finished 37th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

Ridley played in a Titans passing game that ranked:

  • 22nd in completion rate
  • 26th in yards
  • 22nd in yards per attempt
  • 16th in TDs

QB Will Levis did not take a step forward in his second NFL season, and QB Mason Rudolph wasn’t any better.

It’s worth noting that Ridley got a volume and production boost after WR DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs in October. Here are the per-game splits:

Six games with Hopkins
  • 6.0 targets per game (19.8% share)
  • 8.8 expected PPR points per game (WR60)
  • 7.6 actual PPR points per game (WR73)
11 games without Hopkins
  • 7.6 targets per game (24.1% share)
  • 13.3 expected PPR points per game (WR26)
  • 13.6 actual PPR points per game (WR28)

Historical Production & Trends

2024 marked Ridley’s second straight 1,000-yard season. He went for 1,016 yards and eight scores on 76 catches with the Jaguars in 2023, finishing 28th among WRs in PPR points per game.

Although his points per game dropped by 1.6 from 2023 to 2024, Ridley improved his yards per target, yards per route, and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Ridley topped 14 PPR points per game in three straight seasons from 2019 to 2021 before being suspended for all of 2022 for violating the league’s gambling policy.

Injury History

Ridley has played all 17 games in each of the last two seasons.

He missed four games with injury across his first four campaigns:

  • 3 in 2019 with an abdominal injury
  • 1 in 2021 with a left mid-foot injury

But Ridley revealed in 2023 that he played most of the 2020 season with a broken foot, which was initially diagnosed as a bone bruise. He had surgery on the foot in June 2021 but was ready for the start of that season.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Ridley returns to Tennessee as the clear No. 1 WR.

DeAndre Hopkins is gone, and the Titans only made minor additions to the pass-catching corps this offseason. They signed veteran WRs Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson to cheap, one-year deals and nabbed WRs Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor in Round 4 of the draft. Tennessee also added TE Gunnar Helm in Round 4.

None of those guys is a legitimate threat to Ridley’s standing as target leader.

His role figures to change, though. NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe, citing conversations with HC Brian Callahan, said in May that the Titans want to scheme up more quick-hitting designed targets for Ridley this year. That would certainly help his catch rate and week-to-week consistency.

Supporting Cast

The Titans hope they’ve found a solution at QB in first overall pick Cam Ward. Although his mechanics and accuracy are inconsistent, Ward has plus arm talent and athleticism. He should be an immediate upgrade over last year’s duo of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

Ward was particularly good throwing deep at Miami last year, ranking fifth in the nation in Pro Football Focus’ deep passing grade. That should mesh well with Ridley, who is still the team’s best downfield target.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Brian Callahan returns for his second season as Titans HC. The year one results were ugly, with Tennessee ranking 26th or worse in points, total yards, and passing yards. But Callahan never had much of a chance with a QB room of Levis and Rudolph.

His results as Bengals OC from 2019 through 2023 were better. Cincinnati ranked top-16 in points in Callahan’s final three seasons, including seventh-place finishes in 2021 and 2022.

Last year’s Titans ranked 19th with a 56.4% pass rate. That was a shift from Callahan, whose teams registered a pass rate north of 60% in four of five seasons in Cincinnati.

If Ward proves ready, look for the Titans to throw at least a little more in 2025. We currently project them for a 58.7% pass rate.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Ridley will play most of the coming season at 30. (He turns 31 on December 20.) That’s past prime for WRs, but our aging-curve research says that we can still expect somewhere between 85-93% of peak production. That’s down just a little from 90-96% at age-29.

As mentioned earlier, Ridley’s yards per target and yards per route last year were his best marks since 2020.

 

Chigoziem Okonkwo

Headshot of Chigoziem Okonkwo

Bottom Line:

Okonkwo finished just 29th among TEs in PPR points per game last year. But he flashed late, scoring as the TE14 over his final five games. That stretch — plus the arrival of rookie QB Cam Ward — keeps Okonkwo on the late-round flier radar in 2025 fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Okonkwo caught 52 balls for 479 yards and two scores across a little more than 16 games last year. (He played just three snaps in Week 18.) He ranked 16th among TEs in catches, 22nd in yards, and tied for 24th in TDs. 

Okonkwo finished 21st among TEs in total PPR points and 29th in PPR points per game (omitting Week 18). He had four top-12 scoring weeks but finished outside the top-20 TEs 10 times.

Usage & Role

Okonkwo drew 70 targets last year, which ranked second among Titans and tied for 18th among TEs. His 13.2% target share ranked 24th at the position. (That climbs to 13.9% if we omit Week 18.) Okonkwo also ranked 24th in expected PPR points per game through Week 17.

He saw his best usage late in the season, though. Over his final five full games, Okonkwo averaged 7.6 targets on a 22.1% share. Only five TEs totaled more targets over that stretch; only five had a higher target share.

Okonkwo ranked eighth at the position in expected PPR points per game and 14th in actual PPR points per game across those five weeks.

Efficiency Metrics

Okonkwo caught 74.3% of his targets last year, in large part because of his shallow 5.9-yard average target depth. He averaged just 9.2 yards per catch.

Among 36 TEs with 40+ targets last season, Okonkwo ranked:

  • 27th in yards per target
  • 29th in yards per route
  • 26th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade

Okonkwo was much more efficient over that five-game stretch to close the season. He ranked 13th in yards per route and 11th in PFF grade among 29 qualifying TEs.

Offensive Context

Okonkwo played in a Titans passing game that ranked:

  • 22nd in completion rate
  • 26th in yards
  • 22nd in yards per attempt
  • 16th in TDs

QB Will Levis did not take a step forward in his second NFL season, and QB Mason Rudolph wasn’t any better.

Historical Production & Trends

Okonkwo has steadily improved his per-game PPR production over three NFL seasons, from 5.6 to 6.7 to 7.1.

But his 1.25 yards per route last year was actually a career low. So was his 4.9 yards after the catch per reception, despite a career-low 5.7-yard average target depth.

Okonkwo earned a strong 84.6 PFF receiving grade as a rookie in 2022 but sunk to 63.2 in 2023. That rebounded only slightly to 65.4 last year.

Injury History

Okonkwo has played all 17 games in each of his three NFL seasons. He exited after just three snaps in last year’s finale, though, with an abdomen injury. That shouldn’t impact his 2025 campaign.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Okonkwo will head to training camp as the favorite for lead TE duties again in 2025. But he’ll need to hold off rookie Gunnar Helm. 

The fourth rounder played behind TE Ja’Tavion Sanders as a sophomore and junior at Texas but broke out in his 2024 senior campaign. He led the Longhorns with 60 catches and ranked second to only WR Matthew Golden with 786 yards and seven TDs. Helm has reliable hands and is a weapon after the catch.

Tennessee’s WR room remains weak behind No. 1 Calvin Ridley, though, so there’s potential for Okonkwo to again finish second on this team in targets this season.

Supporting Cast

The Titans hope they’ve found a solution at QB in first overall pick Cam Ward. Although his mechanics and accuracy are inconsistent, Ward has plus arm talent and athleticism. He should be an immediate upgrade over last year’s duo of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

Brian Callahan returns for his second season as Titans HC. The year one results were ugly, with Tennessee ranking 26th or worse in points, total yards, and passing yards. But Callahan never had much of a chance with a QB room of Levis and Rudolph.

His results as Bengals OC from 2019 through 2023 were better. Cincinnati ranked top-16 in points in Callahan’s final three seasons, including seventh-place finishes in 2021 and 2022.

Last year’s Titans ranked 19th with a 56.4% pass rate. That was a shift from Callahan, whose teams registered a pass rate north of 60% in four of five seasons in Cincinnati.

If Ward proves ready, look for the Titans to throw at least a little more in 2025. We currently project them for a 58.7% pass rate.

It’s also worth noting that Callahan talked up Okonkwo’s development late last season.

“He’s really started to play well,” Callahan said in December. “He’s playing with a lot of confidence right now. He’s playing fast. Everything about what he’s doing in the pass game and the run game as a TE has been really encouraging. … He’s got explosive ability, as we’ve seen a couple different times with the ball in his hands. So, trying to find ways to get the ball in his hands. … He’s really developed into a really pretty good NFL TE, both in the run and the pass game.”

Production & Efficiency Trends

Okonkwo will enter his fourth NFL season at 26 years old. 

Our aging-curve research has found that TEs tend to peak at age-25, although they still produce at 96-98% of that peak at 26.

Jared Smola Author Image
Jared Smola, Lead Analyst
Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks sixth among 158 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.
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