Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Forecast: 2025's Breakout Offense?

    

 

Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 Overview

Schedule

 

Wins

 

Play Calling

       

Key Additions

• RB Bhayshul Tuten
• WR Travis Hunter
• WR Dyami Brown

Notable Coaching Changes

• HC Liam Coen replaces HC Doug Pederson
• OC Grant Udinski replaces OC Press Taylor

 

Trevor Lawrence

Bottom Line:

Lawrence was a big offseason winner, landing a coaching upgrade in Liam Coen and a new toy in rookie WR Travis Hunter. While he’s been a bit underwhelming through four NFL seasons, Lawrence has finished as a top-16 QB in fantasy points per game in three straight. He has the potential to bust into the top-12 this season, making him one of the top later-round targets in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Lawrence suffered an AC joint injury in left shoulder injury in Week 9 last year that cost him the following two games. He returned in Week 13 but lasted just 19 snaps before sustaining a concussion. That shut him down for the rest of the season.

Lawrence averaged 223 passing yards with 1.2 TDs across his nine full games. He tacked on 12.6 rushing yards and 0.3 TDs per game to rank 13th among QBs in fantasy points per game through Week 9.

Lawrence finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in just two of those nine games, although he sank outside the top 18 just three times.

Efficiency Metrics

Lawrence set a three-year low with a 60.6% completion rate last year — but his 7.2 yards per attempt was a career best.

That was largely due to a career-high 9.9 intended air yards per pass attempt. That was second-highest among 34 QBs with 250+ attempts.

Still, Lawrence ranked 33rd among those 34 QBs in adjusted completion rate and 31st in NFL Next Gen Stats’ completion rate over expected.

He finished 19th in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Offensive Context

Lawrence played under dead-man-walking HC Doug Pederson and behind an offensive line that ranked 19th in ESPN pass block win rate and 20th in PFF’s pass-blocking grades.

TE Evan Engram missed four of Lawrence’s nine full games, and WR Gabe Davis was a total bust. WR Brian Thomas turned in a huge rookie season but didn’t really get rolling until the second half of the season. He averaged 66.1 yards across nine games with Lawrence vs. 85.9 yards over his final eight outings.

Pro Football Focus ranked Jacksonville 23rd in receiving grade on the season.

The 2024 Jaguars were a fast-paced offense, finishing third in neutral pace. But they ranked dead last with 58.4 plays per game. 

Historical Production & Trends

Here are Lawrence’s finishes in fantasy points per game through four seasons:

• 2021 - 34th
• 2022 - 13th
• 2023 - 16th
• 2024 - 13th

He averaged 242 and 251 passing yards per game in 2022 and 2023, respectively. But Lawrence has underwhelmed in the TD department, topping out at 25 scores in 2022 and averaging only 1.15 per game for his career. Lawrence’s career 3.4% TD rate ranks 39th among 42 active QBs with 1,000+ career attempts.

He’s provided sneaky rushing production, though. Lawrence’s career average of 18.1 rushing yards per game ranks 13th among 51 active QBs with 20+ career starts.

Injury History

Lawrence had surgery on his left shoulder in December. He’s expected to be a full-go for the start of training camp.

Lawrence missed just one game over his first three NFL seasons — with a sprained right shoulder in 2023. He played through hamstring, ankle, toe, and knee injuries during that stretch. He landed in concussion protocol in 2023 but was cleared by the following week.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Lawrence remains locked in as Jacksonville’s starter after signing a five-year, $275 million extension in June 2024. His $55 million average annual salary is tied for second among QBs.

Supporting Cast

WR Brian Thomas Jr. returns after a dazzling 1,282-yard rookie season. He’ll be joined by No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter. 

A rare two-way prospect, Hunter starred at both WR and CB in college. Offensively, he racked up 96 catches, 1,258 yards, and 15 TDs last year at Colorado. We’ll see exactly how the Jaguars deploy Hunter’s dual skill set. But Coen said shortly after the draft that Hunter will "primarily play on offense” to start.

Thomas and Hunter have the potential to give Lawrence one of the best WR duos in the league.

Jacksonville released TE Evan Engram in March. The 30-year-old averaged a career-low 7.8 yards per catch last year and missed eight games with hamstring and shoulder injuries. He’ll be replaced by TE Brenton Strange, who flashed with 11-73-0 and 4-60-0 lines over the final four weeks of last season.

The Jaguars re-tooled their offensive line this offseason, adding C Robert Hainsey and G Patrick Mekari in free agency. Hainsey played under new Jags HC Liam Coen in Tampa Bay. Mekari is capable of playing all five spots on the line but is expected to start at RG.

This is unlikely to be a dominant offensive line in 2025, but it should be better than last year’s unit.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to top-four finishes in both points and total yards. More importantly, he helped QB Baker Mayfield to a career-best season. Mayfield set personals bests last year in:

• Passing yards (4,500)
• Passing TDs (41)
• Completion rate (71.4%)
• Yards per attempt (7.9)
• Passing TD rate (7.2%)

Mayfield produced 11.3% more passing yards, 46.4% more passing TDs, and 31.8% more fantasy points in 2024 under Coen than he did under OC Dave Canales in 2023. Only two QBs scored more fantasy points than Mayfield last year.

Lawrence’s career numbers stack up nicely against Mayfield’s numbers prior to working with Coen last year:

Production & Efficiency Trends

Lawrence is entering his fifth NFL season but turns just 26 in October. According to our aging-curve research, he should still be on the ascent. QBs, on average, don’t peak until age 28.

 

Travis Etienne

Bottom Line:

Etienne is coming off a disappointing 2024 season and faces tough backfield competition in 2025. The Jaguars added RB Bhayshul Tuten in Round 4 of the draft, and RB Tank Bigsby returns after out-playing Etienne on the ground last year. HC Liam Coen is a coaching upgrade — but has no allegiance to Etienne. There’s a wide range of outcomes here, making Etienne best-treated as a RB4 in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Etienne carried 150 times for 558 yards and two TDs in 15 games last year. He suffered a hamstring injury early in Week 6 and missed the next two games.

The carries, rushing yards, and TDs were all career lows. 

Etienne was better in the passing game catching 39 of 52 targets for 254 yards. All three of those marks ranked top 30 among RBs.

Etienne finished 35th at the position in total PPR points; 42nd in points per game.

Usage & Role

Etienne worked in a timeshare with RB Tank Bigsby throughout last season.

Etienne beat Bigsby 53 to 34 in carries over the first five weeks of the season. But, in their final eight games together, Bigsby held a slim 83 to 82 edge in carries.

Bigsby also beat Etienne 11 to five in carries inside the five-yard line for the season.

Etienne operated Jacksonville’s passing-down back throughout the year, though, out-targeting Bigsby 52 to 12.

That helped Etienne finish 35th among RBs in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

Etienne registered career lows in most rushing efficiency metrics last year, including:

• Yards per carry (3.7)
• Yards after contact per carry (2.48)
• Missed tackles forced per carry (0.11)
• Pro Football Focus rushing grade (62.8)

All four marks ranked bottom seven among 47 RBs with 90+ carries last year. Etienne also ranked 39th among those 47 RBs in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt.

Bigsby beat Etienne in all of those metrics — and it wasn’t particularly close.

Etienne was only a bit better in the passing game. His 6.5 yards per catch was a career low, and his 1.00 yards per route matched a career low. Those marks ranked 28th and 27th, respectively, among 37 RBs with 30+ targets.

Offensive Context

Jacksonville’s offense was not good last year, finishing 25th in total yards and 26th in points. The Jaguars also ranked dead last in plays per game.

HC Doug Pederson was a dead man walking all year. QB Trevor Lawrence missed virtually all of the final eight games with injuries.

The offensive line struggled in the run game, too, ranking:

• 25th in ESPN run block win rate
• 26th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
• 18th in adjusted line yards

Historical Production & Trends

Etienne’s rushing yards per game has declined across each of his three NFL seasons, from 66.2 to 59.3 to 37.2.

After averaging 5.1 yards per carry in 2022, Etienne has mustered just 3.8 over the last two years.

A big culprit has been a lack of big plays. Here are the percentage of his runs to go for 15+ yards by season:

• 2022 - 7.2%
• 2023 - 3.7%
• 2024 - 4.0%

Etienne has at least remained a significant part of Jacksonville’s passing game, registering 11.8% and 11.1% target shares the past two seasons.

His finishes in PPR points per game:

• 2022 - 24th
• 2023 - 7th
• 2024 - 42nd

Injury History

Etienne missed his entire 2021 rookie season after suffering a significant tear to the Lisfranc ligament in his foot in the preseason.

He played all 17 games the following two years before missing two with a hamstring injury in 2024. Etienne also dealt with a shoulder injury early last season, missing part of the Week 4 game against the Texans.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Etienne is entering the final year of his rookie contract. He’s been the subject of trade rumors this offseason but remains on the roster as of now.

He’ll face heavy competition for snaps and touches in 2025. Bigsby returns after out-playing Etienne on the ground last year. And Jacksonville added RB Bhayshul Tuten early in the fourth round of this spring’s draft.

The Virginia Tech product totaled 2,022 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry over the last two seasons and blazed a 4.32-second 40 time at the Combine. There’s some overlapping skill set between Tuten and Etienne — both big-play backs.

Tuten is unlikely to make a big impact in the passing game this season, though. He caught 50 balls over the last two years but did not fare well in advanced metrics like yards per route and Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Bigsby has eight total catches with five drops across his two NFL seasons.

Etienne is at least a good bet to hang on to primary pass-catching duties this year.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to a fourth-place finish in points and a third-place finish in total yards — up from 20th and 23rd under OC Dave Canales in 2023.

Tampa Bay’s running game was awesome under Coen, ranking:

• 4th in yards
• 2nd in yards per carry
• 8th in DVOA

Bucs RBs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White both finished top 21 in PPR points last year.

It’s a coaching upgrade for Etienne — although this new staff has no allegiance to him. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote in May that he heard the new regime is “not so high” on Etienne.

Supporting Cast

There’s plenty of firepower in this Jacksonville offense. Second overall pick Travis Hunter joins Brian Thomas Jr. to give the Jaguars one of the most talented WR duos in the league. QB Trevor Lawrence has been relatively underwhelming through four NFL seasons, but he’s not lacking in talent and turns just 26 in October. We’re expecting a bounce-back 2025 campaign.

The Jaguars’ offensive line remains a potential weak spot, though, even after adding C Robert Hainsey and G Patrick Mekari in free agency. Hainsey played under new Jags HC Liam Coen in Tampa Bay. Mekari is capable of playing all five spots on the line but is expected to start at RG.

This still looks like a below-average offensive line, but Coen’s scheme should help mask some deficiencies.

Tank Bigsby

Bottom Line:

Bigsby is coming off a strong sophomore season, beating teammate Travis Etienne in virtually all rushing metrics. A new coaching staff and the arrival of rookie Bhayshul Tuten cloud Bigsby’s 2025 outlook. But he has the potential to lead the backfield in carries.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

After an ugly rookie season that finished with 132 yards on 50 carries, Bigsby took a huge step forward in 2024. He toted it 168 times for 766 yards and seven TDs in 16 games.

Bigsby was seldom used in the passing game, though, catching just seven of 12 targets for 54 scoreless yards.

He finished 43rd among RBs in PPR points per game, 38th in half-PPR points per game, and 34th in non-PPR points per game.

Usage & Role

Bigsby earned a committee role in training camp, carrying 34 times to RB Travis Etienne’s 53 over the first five weeks of the season. 

Bigsby racked up 44 carries for 196 yards and two TDs with Etienne out for Weeks 7 and 8.

Then, in their final eight games together, Bigsby out-carried Etienne 83 to 82. 

Bigsby also beat Etienne 11 to five in carries inside the five-yard line for the season.

The lack of passing-game usage hurt, though, particularly in PPR leagues. Bigsby ranked just 42nd among RBs in expected PPR points per game. He finished 38th in expected half-PPR points per game and 35th in non-PPR.

Efficiency Metrics

Bigsby was Jacksonville’s best runner by virtually any metric last year. Here’s how he stacked up vs. Etienne:

In fact, Bigsby ranked top-9 among 47 qualifying RBs league-wide in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per carry, and rush yards over expected per attempt.

Offensive Context

Jacksonville’s offense was not good last year, finishing 25th in total yards and 26th in points. The Jaguars also ranked dead last in plays per game.

HC Doug Pederson was a dead man walking all year. QB Trevor Lawrence missed virtually all of the final eight games with injuries.

The offensive line struggled in the run game, too, ranking:

• 25th in ESPN run block win rate
• 26th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
• 18th in adjusted line yards

Injury History

Bigsby injured his ankle in Week 10 last year and missed Week 11. He also missed the second half of Week 2 with a shoulder injury.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Bigsby will face tough competition for snaps and touches in 2025. Etienne returns for the final year of his rookie contract, and the Jaguars added RB Bhayshul Tuten in the fourth round of this spring’s draft. The Virginia Tech product totaled 2,022 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry over the last two seasons and blazed a 4.32-second 40 time at the Combine.

Tuten’s archetype as a big-play back is much more similar to Etienne than Bigsby, though. Bigsby is at least a good bet to handle the short-yardage and goal-line work in 2025. We’ll see how the rest of the early-down work gets divvied.

There’s no reason to count on Bigsby doing much in the passing game.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later — after reports that Coen would remain in Tampa Bay as OC.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to a fourth-place finish in points and a third-place finish in total yards — up from 20th and 23rd under OC Dave Canales in 2023.

Tampa Bay’s running game was awesome under Coen, ranking:

• 4th in yards
• 2nd in yards per carry
• 8th in DVOA

Bucs RBs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White both finished top 21 in PPR points last year.

It’s a coaching upgrade for Bigsby — although this new staff has no allegiance to him.

Supporting Cast

There’s plenty of firepower in this Jacksonville offense. Second overall pick Travis Hunter joins Brian Thomas Jr. to give the Jaguars one of the most talented WR duos in the league. QB Trevor Lawrence has been relatively underwhelming through four NFL seasons, but he’s not lacking in talent and turns just 26 in October. We’re expecting a bounce-back 2025 campaign.

The Jaguars’ offensive line remains a potential weak spot, though, even after adding C Robert Hainsey and G Patrick Mekari in free agency. Hainsey played under new Jags HC Liam Coen in Tampa Bay. Mekari is capable of playing all five spots on the line but is expected to start at RG.

This still looks like a below-average offensive line, but Coen’s scheme should help mask some deficiencies.

 

Bhayshul Tuten

Bottom Line:

Tuten is one of the most explosive RBs in this year’s rookie class. He joins a crowded Jaguars backfield alongside Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby. But the new coaching staff has no ties to those guys. Don’t be surprised if Tuten carves out a significant role this season. He’s a high-upside bench stash.

2024 Summary

College Production

Tuten accepted his only Division I offer – from North Carolina A&T – in 2021. After a quiet freshman season, he broke out for 1,370 yards and 13 TDs on 6.6 yards per carry as a sophomore. Tuten added a 30-333-4 receiving line.

Tuten transferred to Virginia Tech ahead of the 2023 campaign and delivered two strong years. He led the Hokies with 173 carries, 863 yards, and 10 TDs in his debut season, while also ranking top five on the team with 27 catches, 239 receiving yards, and two receiving scores.

He was even better on the ground this past year, racking up 1,159 yards and 15 TDs on 6.3 yards per carry. And he did it behind an offensive line that ranked 92nd among 134 schools in Pro Football Focus’ run-blocking grades.

Tuten shined in blocking-independent metrics. Among 31 RBs at this year’s Combine, he ranked:

• 12th in rush yards over expected
• 5th in yards after contact per attempt
• 4th in missed tackles forced per attempt
• 6th in percentage of runs to go for 15+ yards

Tuten was not nearly as impressive in the passing game. He finished with 23 catches for just 81 yards. And, among those 31 Combine RBs, he ranked:

• 29th in yards per route
• 23rd in Pro Football Focus receiving grade

Tuten also had ball-security issues at Virginia Tech, fumbling nine times over the last two seasons.

Athleticism

Tuten boosted his stock with a strong showing at the Combine. He blazed a 4.32-second 40 time at 5'9, 206 pounds — good for a 98th percentile Speed Score. Tuten also posted a 95th percentile vertical and a 96th percentile broad. He earned a 9.56 Relative Athletic Score (out of 10).

Injury History

Tuten played in all 13 games for Virginia Tech in 2023 but missed one game and was limited in another with a left ankle injury last year.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Jaguars made Tuten the seventh RB off the board in this spring’s draft, taking him with the second pick of Round 4. The rookie joins Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby in the backfield.

Etienne is coming off his second straight disappointing season, rushing for a career-low 558 yards on a career-low 3.7 yards per attempt. He caught 39 balls but registered another career low with just 6.5 yards per catch.

Bigsby was Jacksonville’s best runner last year. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry and ranked ninth among 47 qualifiers in NFL Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt.

It’s noteworthy, though, that Jacksonville’s new front office and coaching staff have no ties to Bigsby or Etienne.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to a fourth-place finish in points and a third-place finish in total yards — up from 20th and 23rd under OC Dave Canales in 2023.

Tampa Bay’s running game was awesome under Coen, ranking:

• 4th in yards
• 2nd in yards per carry
• 8th in DVOA

The engine of the big season was rookie Bucky Irving, who ran for 1,121 yards and finished 13th among RBs in PPR points.

Irving was a Round 4 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft — selected 21 picks later than Tuten.

Supporting Cast

There’s plenty of firepower in this Jacksonville offense. Second overall pick Travis Hunter joins Brian Thomas Jr. to give the Jaguars one of the most talented WR duos in the league. QB Trevor Lawrence has been relatively underwhelming through four NFL seasons, but he’s not lacking in talent and turns just 26 in October. We’re expecting a bounce-back 2025 campaign.

Jacksonville’s offensive line struggled in the run game last year, ranking:

• 25th in ESPN run block win rate
• 26th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
• 18th in adjusted line yards

The Jaguars added C Robert Hainsey and G Patrick Mekari in free agency. Hainsey played under new Jags HC Liam Coen in Tampa Bay. Mekari is capable of playing all five spots on the line but is expected to start at RG.

This still looks like a below-average offensive line, but Coen’s scheme should help mask some deficiencies. 

 

Brian Thomas Jr.

Bottom Line:

Thomas is coming off a monster rookie season, finishing fifth among WRs in PPR points with elite efficiency metrics. Rookie Travis Hunter presents increased target competition in 2025. But Thomas also gets a big coaching upgrade with the arrival of Liam Coen. He’s a good bet for WR1 production with upside into the top five.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Thomas turned in a huge rookie season, catching 87 balls for 1,282 yards and 10 TDs across 17 games. Only Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson tallied more receiving yards last year. Thomas’ 10 scores tied for fifth among WRs.

He finished fifth at the position in total PPR points and 15th in points per game. Thomas scored the 17th most PPR points per game by a rookie WR in NFL history — and the sixth most over the past 10 seasons.

He was more productive during the second half of the season than the first. Here are the per-game splits:

Thomas ranked 11th among WRs in PPR points over the first nine weeks; seventh over the final nine.

He closed his rookie season with 100+ yards in three of his final four outings.

Usage & Role

Thomas tallied 133 targets on the season — a 24.4% share that ranked 20th among WRs.

Like his production, Thomas’ volume grew over the second half of the season:

Thomas ranked 10th among WRs in total targets and sixth in target share from Week 10 on. He ranked seventh in expected PPR points per game over the second half (after ranking 43rd over the first half).

Efficiency Metrics

Thomas hauled in 65.4% of his targets and averaged 14.7 yards per catch last year. His 9.6 yards per target ranked 14th among 89 WRs with 50+ targets.

Thomas’ 2.45 yards per route ranked sixth among those 89 WRs and first among 11 qualifying rookie WRs. In fact, he became just the sixth rookie WR over the last five seasons to top 2.3 yards per route, joining Puka Nacu, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, and Ladd McConkey.

Nacua, Jefferson, Chase, and Olave all averaged more PPR points per game in their 2nd seasons than they did as rookies.

Offensive Context

Thomas’ elite efficiency last year is even more impressive considering the Jaguars offense was not good. Jacksonville finished:

• 26th in points
• 25th in total yads
• 24th in passing yards
• 21st in yards per pass attempt

While Thomas averaged 2.45 yards per route, all other Jaguars WRs combined for 1.06.

Interestingly, Thomas’ big second half came without QB Trevor Lawrence, who played just 19 snaps over Jacksonville’s final eight games. Thomas averaged 2.40 yards per route with Lawrence through Week 9; 2.50 from Week 10 on.

WR Christian Kirk missed the final nine games of the season and TE Evan Engram the final four, which helped boost Thomas’ volume.

Injury History

Thomas played all 17 games last year but exited early in Week 8 with a chest injury. He totaled just four catches over 34 yards across his next two games before catching fire down the stretch.

Thomas missed one game at LSU in 2022 with a concussion.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

Thomas will face new competition for targets this season after the Jaguars traded up to take Travis Hunter with the second overall pick of this spring’s draft.

Hunter was a two-position star in college, playing both WR and CB. The big question now is just how much he’ll play on each side of the ball as a pro. The team said shortly after drafting him that Hunter would play “primarily” offense to start, but he was already getting defensive reps in May OTAs.

Exactly how many snaps Hunter gets on offense will have a meaningful impact on Thomas’ target volume. It’ll be a situation to watch closely throughout the summer.

Elsewhere in the pass-catching corps, the Jaguars released TE Evan Engram and traded WR Christian Kirk to Houston this offseason. Those two combined to average 13 targets per game last year.

Outside of Hunter, the only significant addition Jacksonville made was WR Dyami Brown on a one-year, $10 million deal. His 30 catches and 308 yards last season were career highs.

This could be a situation where Thomas and Hunter combine for over 50% of Jaguars targets.

Thomas is unlikely to top a 30% target share like he did over the second half of last season. But we’re currently projecting him for 26.5%. And his 153 projected targets are eighth most among WRs.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to a fourth-place finish in points and a third-place finish in total yards — up from 20th and 23rd under OC Dave Canales in 2023. Tampa Bay ranked:

• 3rd in passing yards
• 6th in yards per pass attempt
• 2nd in passing TDs

WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans finished third and 11th, respectively, at the position in PPR points per game last year.

Coen looks like a huge upgrade from Pederson for Thomas’ fantasy outlook.

Supporting Cast

QB Trevor Lawrence returns after an underwhelming, injury-shortened 2024 campaign. He’s yet to deliver on the promise that made him the No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. But Lawrence isn’t lacking in ability, is still only 25, and should benefit from Coen’s arrival.

Production & Efficiency Trends

As mentioned above, Thomas joined an elite group of WRs by averaging over 2.3 yards per route as a rookie. The four WRs to do that over the previous four seasons all averaged more PPR points per game in year two.

 

Travis Hunter

Bottom Line:

Hunter carries a wide range of outcomes into 2025. He’s an exciting prospect who went second overall to a strong offensive mind in HC Liam Coen. But it’s unclear exactly how much Hunter will play on offense vs. defense. And he’s competing for targets with emerging superstar WR Brian Thomas. Hunter could be anything from a borderline WR1 to barely startable this year. Treat him accordingly in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

College Production

Hunter was a rare two-way stud in college, dominating at both WR and CB.

He started his college career with HC Deion Sanders at Jackson State in 2022. Hunter posted a 17-187-4 line on offense along with two INTs and eight pass breakups on defense across eight games as a true freshman.

He followed Sanders (and QB Shadeur Sanders) to Colorado for the 2023 campaign. Hunter missed three games with a lacerated liver but averaged 80.1 receiving yards per game while leading the nation with 1,102 total snaps (631 on defense, 475 on offense, and 32 on special teams).

Then came a huge 2024 season. Hunter racked up 96 catches, 1,258 yards, and 15 TDs — all top-five marks in the country. He added 36 tackles, four INTs, and 11 passes defensed on the other side of the ball. Hunter played 86.8% of Colorado’s offensive snaps and 82.9% on defense.

He stocked his trophy case, winning:

• The Heisman
• The Walter Camp Award (best player in college football)
• The Biletnikoff Award (best receiver)
• The Chuck Bednarik Award (best defensive player)
• The Paul Hornung Award (most versatile player)

Efficiency Metrics

Hunter’s 2024 efficiency metrics fall a bit short of elite.

His 37.5% Dominator Rating (share of team receiving yards and TDs) ranked 11th among 49 WRs at the Combine. His 2.51 yards per route ranked 20th. And his 2.75 yards per team pass attempt ranked 11th.

But Hunter finished fourth among those 49 WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade. And the efficiency needs context: The guy was also playing a full load of snaps on defense!

Plenty of film evaluators had Hunter as the best WR in the 2025 class. He earns high marks for his route running, ball skills, and after-catch ability.

Injury History

Hunter suffered a right ankle injury in his final high school season that required surgery. He aggravated that injury and missed five games in 2022. A lacerated liver cost him three games in 2023.

Hunter played in all 13 games last year, although his snaps were limited vs. Kansas State and Arizona due to a shoulder injury.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The big question with Hunter in 2025 (and beyond) is how his snaps will be divvied between offense and defense. The team said shortly after drafting him that Hunter would play “primarily” offense to start, but he was already getting defensive reps in May OTAs.

Hunter’s offensive role will be a big storyline throughout the summer. We might not know for sure how much action he’ll get at WR until Week 1 — and it could be a situation that changes throughout the season.

Hunter will need to play the majority of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps if he wants to be a reliable fantasy contributor. Over the last three seasons, top-24 PPR WRs have averaged an 89.4% route rate. 90% of those WRs have topped an 80% route rate, with 81% of them going over 85%.

On top of the uncertainty about Hunter’s role on offense, he’ll also be battling for targets with an emerging superstar in Brian Thomas Jr. He’s coming off a 1,282-yard rookie season, becoming just the sixth first-year WR to top 2.3 yards per route over the last five seasons. The other five: Puka Nacu, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Chris Olave, and Ladd McConkey.

Thomas drew 24.4% of Jaguars targets on the season, including 30.4% over the second half of the year. Hunter will have a tough time overtaking Thomas for the team target lead this season.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to a fourth-place finish in points and a third-place finish in total yards — up from 20th and 23rd under OC Dave Canales in 2023. Tampa Bay ranked:

• 3rd in passing yards
• 6th in yards per pass attempt
• 2nd in passing TDs

WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans finished third and 11th, respectively, at the position in PPR points per game last year.

Coen is a big positive for Hunter’s fantasy outlook — especially after the new regime made the big trade up to take Hunter second overall in this year’s draft.

Supporting Cast

QB Trevor Lawrence returns after an underwhelming, injury-shortened 2024 campaign. He’s yet to deliver on the promise that made him the No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. But Lawrence isn’t lacking in ability, is still only 25, and should benefit from Coen’s arrival.

 

Brenton Strange

Bottom Line:

Strange flashed at times last year and is set to operate as Jacksonville’s clear lead TE in 2025. He’s unlikely to be higher than third on the team in targets behind WRs Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. But if this passing game takes a step forward under new HC Liam Coen, Strange could be a useful spot starter in fantasy lineups.

2024 Summary

Production & Fantasy Finishes

Strange finished his second NFL season with 40 catches for 411 yards and two TDs.

He totaled just 11 catches across nine games behind TE Evan Engram. But in eight games without Engram, Strange averaged:

• 4.9 targets
• 3.6 catches
• 34.4 yards
• 0.25 TDs

Strange ranked 17th among TEs in PPR points per game across those eight weeks. The production was sporadic. He finished as a top-10 PPR TE in four of the eight games but outside the top 24 three times.

Usage & Role

Strange ran a route on 72+% of Jaguars pass plays in five of eight games without Engram. He was seemingly benched for part of Week 16, finishing that one with a 38% route rate.

Strange drew 13.8% of Jacksonville’s targets sans Engram and ranked 20th among TEs in expected PPR points per game.

Efficiency Metrics

Strange caught 75.5% of his targets last year but averaged just 10.3 yards per catch — numbers driven by a low 6.4-yard average target depth.

Strange’s 1.49 yards per route ranked 16th among 36 TEs with 40+ targets. He finished 25th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.

Offensive Context

Jacksonville’s offense was not good last year, finishing dead last in plays per game, 25th in total yards, and 26th in points.

HC Doug Pederson was a dead man walking all year. QB Trevor Lawrence missed virtually all of the final eight games with injuries.

The Jaguars ranked 24th in passing yards and 28th in TDs.

2025 Expectations

Projected Role & Competition

The Jaguars released Engram in March and only added TEs Johnny Mundt and Hunter Long in free agency. Those guys have combined for 73 catches across 12 NFL seasons.

Strange is positioned to operate as Jacksonville’s clear lead TE in 2025.

Coaching & Offensive Scheme

The Jaguars surprised no one by firing HC Doug Pederson shortly after the 2024 season ended. They landed Liam Coen as new HC a few weeks later.

Coen arrives fresh off leading the Buccaneers to a fourth-place finish in points and a third-place finish in total yards — up from 20th and 23rd under OC Dave Canales in 2023. Tampa Bay ranked:

• 3rd in passing yards
• 6th in yards per pass attempt
• 2nd in passing TDs

TE Cade Otton ranked 12th among TEs in PPR points per game under Coen last year. He finished third on the team – behind WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – with 6.2 targets per game, drawing an 18.8% target share.

“He’ll elevate just by getting more reps,” Coen said of Strange in March. “Getting him on the field is a good thing for us. He showed some really nice things last year, especially after the catch, breaking tackles and getting extra yards.”

Supporting Cast

QB Trevor Lawrence returns after an underwhelming, injury-shortened 2024 campaign. He’s yet to deliver on the promise that made him the No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. But Lawrence isn’t lacking in ability, is still only 25, and should benefit from Coen’s arrival.

The Jaguars traded up in this spring’s draft to take WR Travis Hunter No. 2 overall. He joins Brian Thomas Jr. to give Jacksonville one of the most talented WR duos in the league.

Strange is unlikely to be better than No. 3 in the pecking order for targets this season.

Production & Efficiency Trends

Strange will play the majority of this season at 24 years old. Our aging-curve research shows that TEs, on average, produce at 84% of their peak at age-24. (Peak comes at 25.)