Fantasy Football Daily Fantasy

Print

Week 12 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks

Anthony Richardson ($5,600) + Josh Downs ($6,200)

This might feel point chasey after Richardson’s big Week 11, but there are multiple reasons to believe that he could be a tournament-winner again this week.

For starters, there was a lot to like about that Week 11 performance. Richardson completed 67% of his passes – his best mark in a full NFL game – and earned a career-high 80.3 Pro Football Focus passing grade. That ranked seventh among all QBs on the week.

Richardson also ran 10 times for 32 yards and a pair of TDs from inside the five-yard line. All 10 of Richardson’s carries were designed – his most in a game this season.

Then there’s the matchup against Detroit. It’s not easy: The Lions rank second in pass defense DVOA and sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

But they’ve faced the fourth-most pass attempts per game – because their run defense is stout and they’re usually playing with the lead.

That figures to be the case on Sunday with the Lions 7.5-point favorites. We’re likely to get elevated drop backs from Richardson in this one.

There’s also elevated rushing upside against a defense that’s struggled against mobile QBs under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Check out these rushing lines from high-end running QBs against Detroit over the last four seasons:

• 7-58-0 (Lamar Jackson)
• 7-71-0 (Jalen Hurts)
• 17-90-1 (Hurts)
• 13-147-2 (Justin Fields)
• 7-50-1 (Daniel Jones)
• 10-78-1 (Josh Allen)
• 10-132-0 (Fields)
• 9-36-1 (Jackson)
• 18-104-0 (Fields)
• 12-58-1 (Fields)
• 5-45-0 (Kyler Murray)

You can certainly play Richardson unstacked. But I also like this spot for Downs.

The Lions rank 23rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and dead last in adjusted points allowed to slot receivers. Downs has run 96% of his routes from the slot this season.

Also consider:

• Jayden Daniels ($7,000) + Terry McLaurin ($6,800) or Noah Brown ($4,200)
• Kyler Murray ($6,200) + Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,100) + Trey McBride ($5,600)
• Drake Maye ($5,500) + Hunter Henry ($4,400)

Running Backs

As usual, I’m not looking to get fancy at RB. I’ll be building around these four RBs on tournament teams this week:

De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($7,500)

He’s scored 20+ points in five of QB Tua Tagovailoa’s six starts this season.

Achane left in the first quarter of the first Patriots game with a concussion – and Tagovailoa didn’t play at all. But RBs Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright combined for 166 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per attempt.

New England currently ranks 28th in run defense DVOA and 23rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Tony Pollard, Titans ($5,800)

Tyjae Spears’ absence will leave Pollard in a role that should have him priced in the high $7,000s. He averaged 21.3 carries and 4.3 targets across three games without Spears earlier this season.

The matchup is tough against Houston’s fourth-ranked RB defense, but that level of volume gives Pollard 20+ point potential.

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs ($5,700)

Hunt is also way underpriced for his projected volume. With RB Isiah Pacheco still out, Hunt should be in the same role that’s produced 20.8 carries and 2.5 targets per game over his last six.

Unlike Pollard, Hunt gets a smash matchup against the Panthers’ 32nd-ranked RB defense.

Brian Robinson, Commanders ($5,600)

Washington’s 27.75-point implied total is second-highest on the slate. There’s lots of TD upside here.

Robinson has handled eight of the team’s 15 carries inside the five-yard line across his eight games this season. He’s scored seven times.

There’s even potential for Robinson to hit the 100-yard bonus vs. a Cowboys defense that’s coughing up 4.6 yards per carry to RBs this season.

Also consider in larger-field tournaments:

• Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($7,300)
• Josh Jacobs, Packers ($6,800)
• Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($5,300)

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins, Texans ($7,600)

There are certainly reasons to not play Collins this week. He was limited to a 55% route rate in his return last week, and there’s no guarantee that he’s a full-go this Sunday. He gets a Titans defense sitting sixth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

The case for Collins is simple: He was leading all WRs in fantasy points before going down, with a pair of 30+ pointers among his first four healthy games.

Collins isn’t even listed on this week’s injury report, so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t at least close to full playing time.

The Titans remain without top CB L’Jarius Sneed, while CB Roger McCreary is listed as questionable with a knee injury.

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($7,200)

I wrote about this spot for Hill in Best Moves and Cash-Game Picks. The Cliff Notes case:

1. The Patriots rank 31st in pass defense DVOA.
2. They’ve allowed the seventh most completions of 20+ yards.
3. They’ve allowed the seventh most yards per game to oppposing No. 1 WRs.
4. Top CB Christian Gonzalez was added to the injury report on Friday and is listed as questionable.

We could get a vintage Tyreek 30-ball on Sunday.

Rome Odunze, Bears ($4,800)

I’ll be paying up at WR for the most part this week. But Odunze is my favorite salary saver at the position.

Chicago’s passing game looked at least somewhat NFL-caliber in the first game under OC Thomas Brown. And Odunze led the way with 10 targets. He also tied WR Keenan Allen for the team lead with a 29.6% first-read target share. That was up from 20.2% over the first nine games.

So there seemed to be a concerted effort by Brown to get Odunze going – which makes sense considering he’s a first-round rookie now into the second half of his debut season.

We could get some spike weeks from Odunze the rest of the way. Sunday’s game against the Vikings’ 26th-ranked WR defense is a good opportunity for one.

Also consider:

• D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks ($6,600)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks ($6,300)
• Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals ($6,100)
• Calvin Ridley, Jaguars ($5,700)
• DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs ($5,400)
• Xavier Worthy, Chiefs ($5,000)
• Noah Brown, Commanders ($4,200)

Tight End

Sam LaPorta, Lions ($4,300)

It’s been a disappointing sophomore season for LaPorta. But he was coming on before the shoulder injury, with games of 16.8 and 15.6 DraftKings points among his last three.

He’s off this week’s injury report, so the shoulder shouldn’t be an issue. And the spot is excellent. LaPorta’s Lions are rocking a 29.25-point implied total vs. the Colts’ 30th-ranked TE defense.

LaPorta still has the upside to score with the TEs priced $1,500 - $2,000 above him.

Also consider:

• Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($5,800)
• Trey McBride, Cardinals ($5,600)
• Hunter Henry, Patriots ($4,000)
• Theo Johnson, Giants ($2,900)
• Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys ($2,500)

Defense/Special Teams

• Texans ($3,600)
• Vikings ($3,400)
• Buccaneers ($3,300)
• Broncos ($3,200)
• Packers ($2,800)
• Cardinals ($2,600)
• Bears ($2,500)
• Giants ($2,400)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.