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Week 13 DraftKings Cash-Game Picks

Top Plays for DraftKings Head-to-Head and 50/50 Contests

Here are the guys I’m considering for DraftKings Week 13 head-to-heads and 50/50s:

Quarterback

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($5,600)

Herbert’s price is stuck in the mid $5000s, despite his production spiking over the last month. He’s averaged 21.3 DraftKings points per game over his last five outings – up from 12.5 over his first six.

The Chargers are passing more, registering a +4.6% pass rate over expected across the last five weeks. And a healthy Herbert is running, averaging 5.0 carries and 35 rushing yards in his last five.

In a plus matchup against the Falcons’ 26th-ranked QB defense on Sunday, Herbert is the clear cash-game QB this week.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,300)

The last time we saw Robinson, his streak of five straight games with 21.5+ DraftKings points was snapped by a stout Broncos defense.

But Robinson actually got his best usage of the season in that one. Prior to two garbage-time drives at the end of the game, Robinson handled 16 of 17 RB opportunities (carries + targets). 

If the Falcons are planning to shift work from RB Tyler Allgeier to Robinson the rest of the way, Robinson could be the RB1 in fantasy football. Even if they don’t, he’s a strong Week 13 DraftKings value.

The Chargers defense has been excellent this season – but they actually rank just 20th in run defense DVOA and have allowed 4.8 yards per carry to RBs. I’m expecting the Falcons to lean on Robinson and the ground game in this matchup.

Chase Brown, Bengals ($6,200)

I had Tony Pollard as a cash-game play last week, writing that his matchup was bad but volume too good to pass up.

Brown is in the same boat this week. He gets a Steelers squad that ranks 12th in run defense DVOA and 15th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

But Brown’s projected volume should have him priced at least $1,000 higher than this. In three games without RB Zack Moss, Brown has:

• Played 83% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps
• Registered a 65% route rate
• Averaged 20.7 carries and 7.7 targets per game

Brown led all RBs in expected PPR points per game over those three weeks and scored 29.7, 23.4, and 19.3 DraftKings points.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($5,800)

I try to stay away from committee backs in cash games. But Irving’s role is trending up, and his matchup is awesome.

Irving has out-carried Rachaad White 41 to 31 over Tampa Bay’s last four games. And, for the first time this season, Irving ran more routes than White last week. That led to a big 6-64-0 receiving line on six targets.

I’m not convinced Irving will remain the Bucs’ top pass-catching RB going forward, but I am confident he’ll stick as the lead ball-carrier.

That’s particularly key this week, with the Bucs six-point favorites against a Panthers team that ranks dead last by wide margins in both run defense DVOA and adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. 

Also consider:

• Joe Mixon, Texans ($8,000)
• Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,700)
• Chuba Hubbard, Panthers ($6,700)

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins, Texans ($7,900)

Collins has racked up 146 yards and a score in two games back from his hamstring injury – and had 77- and 33-yard TDs called back by penalties. 

He’s sitting on a big game and is in a prime spot to deliver it this weekend. Collins draws a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Jacksonville has coughed up the fourty most yards and fifth most TDs to enemy WRs. That includes a huge 12-151-1 line from Collins back in Week 4.

Puka Nacua, Rams ($7,600)

Over his last four full games, Nacua has averaged:

• 11.3 targets
• 8.0 catches
• 111 yards

He ranked fourth among WRs in expected PPR points per game and fifth in actual PPR points per game across those four weeks.

Nacua gets a plus Week 13 matchup against the Saints, who rank 25th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and shipped top CB Marshon Lattimore to Washington at the trade deadline.

Adonai Mitchell, Colts ($3,900)

Mitchell is the salary saver that lets us pay up for Collins and Nacua.

WR Josh Downs will miss Week 13 with his shoulder injury, while WR Alec Pierce is iffy with a foot injury. That should mean a big role for Mitchell, who’s drawn targets at an elite rate this season. His 27% target-per-route rate ranks eighth among 130 qualifying WRs.

QB Anthony Richardson’s inconsistency adds risk to Mitchell’s profile. But the matchup against the Patriots adds upside. New England ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Also consider:

• Tee Higgins, Bengals ($6,600)
• Calvin Ridley, Titans ($5,700)
• David Moore, Panthers ($3,500)

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz, Texans ($3,300)

There are safer target bets priced within $1,000 of Schultz, namely Hunter Henry ($4,200) and Zach Ertz ($3,800).

But I’m willing to go down to Schultz to make the rest of this lineup work. He saw just two targets last week but got seven in WR Nico Collins’ first game back in Week 11.

And Sunday’s matchup is awesome against the Jaguars, who rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Defense/Special Teams

Cardinals ($2,400)

As Matt highlighted in Best Week 13 Moves, the Cardinals defense has been excellent the last three games. Arizona has scored 12, 12, and 11 DraftKings points in those outings.

Sunday brings a game against the Vikings and QB Sam Darnold, who’s been generally good this season but has also thrown the fourth most INTs and taken the sixth most sacks.

Minnesota has been the 12th best matchup for DSTs, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed metric.

Also consider:

• Colts ($2,800)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.