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Week 13 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks

C.J. Stroud ($6,400) + Nico Collins ($7,900) + Tank Dell ($5,900)

It’s been a disappointing season from Stroud, but I think this passing game is close to a big outing.

Stroud has posted 257-0-1 and 247-2-2 passing lines with WR Nico Collins back over the last two weeks, completing 64% of his passes at 7.5 yards per attempt. He’s missed a few relatively easy completions and had 77- and 33-yard TDs to Collins called back by penalties. Even if those two scores stand, public sentiment is much higher on Stroud right now.

The Texans have leaned into the pass when Collins has been healthy this season. 

With Collins: 

• +7.1% pass rate over expected
• 61.7% pass rate

Without Nico Collins:

• -2.2% pass rate over expected
• 53.0% pass rate

Expect a pass-centric game plan again this weekend against a Jaguars defense that’s respectable against the run but pathetic against the pass. Jacksonville ranks dead last by wide margins in both pass defense DVOA and adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. This defense is boosting QB production by 46%.

Of course, this entire section could have just been “look what Stroud and Collins did vs. Jacksonville earlier this year.” He scored a season-high 26.5 DK points on a 345-2-0 passing line against the Jags back in Week 4. Collins caught 12 of 15 targets for 151 yards and a score.

Stroud (4% projected ownership) will be unique enough to play single-stacked with Collins. But I like adding Dell to get even more unique. He missed that first Jacksonville game, but WR Stefon Diggs scored 18.5 DK points in that one. If Stroud delivers, there’s a good chance he’s bringing two pass-catchers with him. You could also consider TE Dalton Schultz ($3,300).

Anthony Richardson ($5,500) + Adonai Mitchell ($3,900)

Richardson busted as chalk last week. It looks like he’ll be relatively popular again, but maybe not as popular as he should be in a much better spot.

Richardson gets a Patriots defense that’s down to 30th in total DVOA, ranking 31st against the pass and 27th against the run.

The passing matchup is particularly intriguing for Richardson because the Patriots rank 24th in pressure rate. Check out Richardson’s splits this season when pressured vs. not:

When pressured:

• 37.5% completion rate
• 6.7 yards per attempt
• 52.5 Pro Football Focus passing grade

When not pressured:

• 52.0% completion rate (bad! … but not as bad.)
• 7.7 yards per attempt
• 66.8 PFF passing grade

Of course, Richardson also boasts a big rushing ceiling. He’s carried 10 times in each of the last two weeks, with 18 of those 20 total runs behind designed.

You could certainly play Richardson unstacked. Or with WR Michael Pittman ($5,200).

But I’m zeroing in on Mitchell at his price and matchup. Unlike a few weeks ago when he filled in for Pittman on the outside, Mitchell figures to primarily be in the slot on Sunday in place of WR Josh Downs. That likely means fewer routes – but a better matchup away from Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez. Slot CB Jonathan Jones ranks dead last among 94 qualifying CBs in passer rating allowed in coverage.

Also consider:

• Baker Mayfield ($6,600) + Mike Evans ($6,700) + Cade Otton ($4,500)
• Justin Herbert ($5,600) + Ladd McConkey ($6,100) + Will Dissly ($4,000)

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson ($7,300) and Chase Brown ($6,200) – who I highlighted in the cash-game article – are my two favorite RB plays on the slate. I’ll have one or both in every tournament team I make. 

Other RBs to consider:

Joe Mixon, Texans ($8,000)

The Jaguars are a respectable run defense, allowing 4.3 yards per carry to RBs and ranking 13th in DVOA. But they rank 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs -- because their pass defense is so bad and they're often trailing. With the Texans 3.5-point favorites in Jacksonville on Sunday, Mixon is a strong volume and TD bet. He’s topped 26 DK points in five of nine games this season.

Kyren Williams, Rams ($7,200)

Williams’ target volume has taken a big hit since WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp have gotten healthy. He likely needs 100+ rushing yards and multiple TDs to deliver at this price tag. But Sunday’s game against the Saints gives him a chance to do just that. New Orleans ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and has allowed two RBs to go for 100+ rushing and two TDs (and two more for 100+ and one TD).

Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($6,900)

Like Williams, Taylor probably needs the 100-yard rushing bonus and multiple TDs to hit. But, like Williams, he’s in a good spot to do it this weekend. The Colts are 2.5-point favorites vs. the Patriots, who rank 27th in run defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Taylor has handled all 35 of the Colts' RB carries and played 92% of the offensive snaps over the last two weeks.

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($5,800)

Another viable cash-game play that I’ll be mixing into tournament lineups.

Wide Receivers

Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars ($5,500)

I’ll be playing Thomas Jr. as a runback on my C.J. Stroud teams – and as a mini game stack alongside Nico Collins.

The rookie has gone cold as he’s dealt with a chest injury and Mac Jones’ antics. But Thomas Jr. is off the Week 13 injury report and expected to get QB Trevor Lawrence back. He draws a Texans defense that ranks 23rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Thomas Jr. already has three games of 21+ DraftKings points this season – and all of those came with WR Christian Kirk.

David Moore, Panthers ($3,500)

Here’s another cheap WR to consider (in addition to Adonai Mitchell).

Moore is coming off a 10-target, 20.1-point outing alongside an improving QB Bryce Young. He ran a route on 95% of dropbacks in that one and should remain a near every-down player this weekend with WR Jalen Coker out.

This Panthers-Bucs game has sneaky shootout potential. Six of 11 Tampa Bay games this season have produced 54+ total points, with another coming in at 49.

The Bucs rank 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Also consider: 

• A.J. Brown, Eagles ($8,300)
• Nico Collins, Texans ($7,900)
• Puka Nacua, Rams ($7,600)
• Mike Evans, Buccaneers ($6,700)
• Tee Higgins, Bengals ($6,600)
• Tank Dell, Texans ($5,900)
• Calvin Ridley, Titans ($5,700)
• Adonai Mitchell, Colts ($3,900)

Tight Ends

There isn’t a single TE that truly sticks out as a strong tournament play on this slate. It’s a good week to pair the TE with your QB when it makes sense.

A couple of TEs to consider as one-offs:

Cade Otton, Buccaneers ($4,500)

Otton dudded with a one-catch, three-target outing last week. I bet a lot of DFS players think he’s way overpriced now that WR Mike Evans is back.

I don’t think that’s the case. Otton still ran a route on a strong 88% of Bucs pass plays last week. The targets didn’t go his way. But Otton already has games this season of 8, 9, and 10 targets with Evans and Chris Godwin.

There’s still nice volume upside here. And the matchup is ideal against Carolina’s 32nd-ranked TE defense.

Mark Andrews, Ravens ($3,900)

Andrews’ route rates have sunk to 58% and 65% with TE Isaiah Likely back the last two weeks. 

He might stay in that range in Sunday’s game vs. the Eagles. But TE Charlie Kolar, who’s been in the 10-20% route rate most weeks this season, is out. That could mean a few extra routes for Andrews, who delivered 15.6 DK points last week despite the reduced routes.

But this is mostly a play on a $3,900 pass catcher in the game with the highest over/under on the slate (50.5).

Also consider: 

• Trey McBride, Cardinals ($5,800)
• Taysom Hill, Saints ($5,000)
• Evan Engram, Jaguars ($4,800)
• Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,300)
• Hunter Henry, Patriots ($4,200)
• Dalton Schultz, Texans ($3,300)

Defense/Special Teams

• Commanders ($3,400)
• Steelers ($3,000)
• Colts ($2,800)
• Jets ($2,500)
• Cardinals ($2,400)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.