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Week 16 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks (Or Not)

Michael Penix ($4,500) Unstacked

I rarely do this in tournaments because it requires us to get more things right in a lineup … but I’ll be playing Penix unstacked this week.

I wrote about Penix’s spot in the cash-game article. He’s a strong value.

You can certainly stack him with WR Drake London, WR Darnell Mooney, or even RB Bijan Robinson. But none of those guys are among my favorite plays at their positions.

The Penix play is more about what he can give us at this price tag compared to the other QBs on the slate – and then what the savings allow us to do with the rest of the lineup.

If we get 20 or so points from Penix, none of the QBs in the $5Ks go for much more than 25, and the 7K+ QBs don’t explode for 35+, we’ll be in a good spot.

Brock Purdy ($6,300) + Jauan Jennings ($5,900) + George Kittle ($6,000)

I’d save this one for larger-field tournaments. But I think there’s more upside to this 49ers-Dolphins game than ownership will give it credit for based on what we’ve seen from these teams recently.

Miami is coming off a total dud in Houston last week. And San Francisco has scored 10 or fewer points in three of the last four.

But the Dolphins were rolling prior to last week. And the 49ers have excuses: They played without Purdy in Week 12, in a blizzard in Buffalo in Week 13, and in a rainy, short-week game in Week 15.

There’s still enough firepower on both of these offenses for this one to turn into a shootout. And we know where the ball is going.

Jennings and Kittle are stronger plays with the 49ers suffering yet another RB injury. Isaac Guerendo’s absence could push San Francisco to throw more. And, over the last four weeks, Jennings and Kittle have combined for 48% of the team’s targets.

WR Tyreek Hill ($6,900) is a strong runback on 49ers stacks. He dudded last week but scored 20.3 and 31.1 DraftKings points in his previous two games. And WR Jaylen Waddle’s absence gives him added target upside. Hill totaled 36 targets on a massive 38.7% share in three games without Waddle last year. His receiving lines in those games:

• 9-157-1
• 6-76-0
• 7-82-1

Also consider:

• Caleb Williams ($5,500) + D.J. Moore ($5,700) + Keenan Allen ($5,300)
• Anthony Richardson ($5,400) + Michael Pittman ($5,000)

Running Backs

As usual, I’m not looking to get fancy at RB. I’ll be focusing on the three guys I highlighted in this week’s cash-game article: Chase Brown ($7,700), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500), and James Conner ($7,100).

But there’s another RB that might be my favorite tournament play of the week:

Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($8,300)

Barkley is coming off a couple of underwhelming games, which seemingly has the field overlooking him this week. He’s projected for just 7% ownership, despite his salary dipping to its lowest point since Week 12.

This is a guy with five games of 36+ DraftKings points this season – more than all the other RBs on the main slate combined.

One of those monster games came in the first meeting with the Commanders. Barkley ran for 146 yards and two TDs in that one, scoring 36.8 DK points.

Washington heads into the rematch ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. The Commanders also rank dead last in pass rate over expected against, while the Eagles rank dead last in pass rate over expected against.

It all sets up for another big Barkley day – at surprisingly low ownership.

Also consider:

• Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($8,100)
• D’Andre Swift, Bears ($5,600)
• Jerome Ford, Browns ($5,600)

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,500)

If I’m not paying up for Saquon Barkley, I’m paying up for Chase. (It’s possible to play them both in Michael Penix lineups.) They’re the two most likely players on the slate to go for 30+ DraftKings points.

Chase gets a Cleveland defense that ranks 28th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. The Browns tend to play a lot of single-high coverage, which has led to them allowing the second-most yards per game on deep passes.

It’s a high-upside matchup for Chase, who’s topped 32 DK points four times this season.

Cooper Kupp, Rams ($6,500)

I highlighted this bounce-back spot for Kupp in the Best Week 16 Moves article.

He goes from a 49ers defense that ranks first in adjusted fantasy points allowed to slot receivers to a Jets defense that ranks 22nd. 

Slot CB Michael Carter has been ruled out for this one, leaving CB Isaiah Oliver as Kupp’s primary matchup. He’s allowed 77% of passes in his coverage to be completed this season.

D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks ($5,500)

We’ll see what the weather looks like in Seattle on Sunday. The current forecast calls for 90% chance of rain, although winds will be light.

If the weather isn’t too big an issue, Metcalf looks like an excellent GPP play at his lowest price of the season and reasonable 12% projected ownership.

There are multiple reasons to like his matchup against the Vikings:

1. They rank 32nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs on the season. 
2. They’ve particularly struggled against outside WRs lately, ranking 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed over the last 5 weeks vs. 20th against slot receivers. 
3. They’ve allowed the fifth-most yards per game on deep passes.

Also consider:

• Garrett Wilson, Jets ($6,600)
• Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars ($6,300)
• Malik Nabers, Giants ($6,100)
• Jauan Jennings, 49ers ($5,900)
• D.J. Moore, Bears ($5,700)
• Calvin Ridley, Titans ($5,700)
• Keenan Allen, Bears ($5,300)
• Jalen Coker, Panthers ($4,200)
• Adonai Mitchell, Colts ($3,800)
• Malik Washington, Dolphins ($3,700)

Tight Ends

Brenton Strange ($3,500) and Chig Okonkwo ($3,400) are strong value options. But I’ll be making it a point to pay up at TE this week for:

Trey McBride, Cardinals ($6,200)

You know the deal with McBride: He’s yet to score a single receiving TD this season despite ranking second among TEs in both catches (89) and receiving yards (938).

QB Kyler Murray is looking to change that. "85 will touch the endzone soon, I promise," Murray wrote on his Instagram this week.

No better matchup to snap that TD drought than the Panthers, who have allowed a league-high 10 TE TDs this season.

McBride has scored 17.7+ DK points in three of his last four games, despite not scoring a TD. There’s easy 25-point upside here if McBride can find the end zone this week.

Brock Bowers, Raiders ($6,500)

McBride is the better bet in terms of raw point projection. But Bowers might be the better tournament play at what I expect to be significantly lower ownership.

He gets QB Aidan O’Connell back this week. In their two full games together, Bowers has totaled 24 targets, 19 catches, and 211 yards.

And he gets a Jaguars defense that ranks 26th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider:

• George Kittle, 49ers ($6,000)
• Sam LaPorta, Lions ($4,700)

Defense/Special Teams

• Vikings ($3,500)
• Bengals ($3,300)
• Seahawks ($2,800)
• Browns ($2,300)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.