Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The optimism is back for Pitts to finally perform up to his talent level after disappointing over the past two seasons.

Ditching the Arthur Smith offense for a more modern one that utilizes its talent is a welcome change. In addition, the massive QB upgrade to Kirk Cousins gives Pitts the best chance to hit his ceiling.

He is a year and a half removed from MCL and PCL surgery, coming into this season the healthiest of his career.

Pitts is an upside TE1 with a low floor and high ceiling.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pitts’ per-game receiving statistics were in line with his 2022 season:
  • 5.1 targets (down from 5.8)
  • 3 receptions (up from 2.8)
  • 37.6 yards (up from 35.6)
  • 12.5 yards per catch (down from 12.7)
  • 0.21 TDs per game (up from 0.2)
• Pitts ranked as the PPR TE14 in total fantasy points (132.6) and in points per game (5.1).
• He played all 17 games despite getting MCL and PCL surgery in November 2022.
• He had five top-12 finishes. He also had five TE25 or worse finishes.
• Pitts' target share of 18.4% ranked 13th among TEs. It was also the lowest of his career.
• Among 33 TEs with at least 40+ targets, Pitts ranked:
  • 11th in PFF receiving grade
  • Third lowest in-line snap percentage of that group (14.9%)
  • Highest average target depth among those TEs at 12.0 yards.

What to Expect in 2024

• Pitts will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
  • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
  • Under Robinson, the Rams averaged 628 passes per season.
• Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and will provide a significant QB upgrade
  • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Desmond Ridder (53.2) and Taylor Heinicke (48.5)
• The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
• Pitts enters his 4th season at 23 years old. According to our aging curve research, a player with Pitts' career produces 98% of his peak value at age-23.