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12 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Editor's note: This article was updated after Geno Smith suffered a broken jaw by a punch from a teammate.

Yeah – we’re kinda sleeper snobs around here. You won’t see us throwing 32 names around and hoping a few hit. And we don’t consider a guy who ranked 14th among WRs last year a sleeper.

The 12 guys below are all going outside the first 9 rounds of 12-team drafts. And they all have a shot to return huge value and contribute to your championship season.

Geno Smith, QB, Jets

That Geno Smith? Really?!? Yep.

First of all, context is important. Smith has climbed from 30th in MyFantasyLeague.com drafting in July -- but only 1 spot. The Jets QB is going more than 2 rounds after Rams QB Nick Foles, 4.5 rounds after Raiders QB Derek Carr and more than 5 rounds behind the top 2 rookie passers.

We can understand the low collective opinion of Smith, who hasn't drawn unfettered support from the new coaching staff despite getting the 1st chance to start. What he has drawn is a big upgrade at OC in Chan Gailey, the guy who once coached Kordell Stewart into a Pro Bowl QB -- and then turned Ryan Fitzpatrick and even Tyler Thigpen (for a little bit) into fantasy starters (among many other successes).

Smith has plenty of arm and the feet to supply valuable rushing production. His 6 ground scores as a 2013 rookie helped produce 5 fantasy-starter weeks even while he threw just 12 TD passes vs. 21 INTs. Smith declined with just 2 starter weeks last season (when he produced just a single rushing score).

Besides Gailey, though, this year brings a new weapon in WR Brandon Marshall. More importantly, it is apparently bringing an at least somewhat improved Smith. HC Todd Bowles told ESPN New York late last week that Smith's offensive command is "night and day from the spring and from OTAs." We'll see how that translates to preseason games, but Smith's ADP means almost no draft-day investment.

He's an intriguing late target for best-ball formats and a decent chance to take late in any draft.

Update:  Jinx!  Just a few hours after being named a DS Sleeper, Smith was sucker-punched by a teammate and will miss 6-10 weeks.  He'll be replaced in the starting lineup by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick could be a sneaky fantasy pick in his own right.  He's familiar with OC Chan Gailey's offense after spending 3 years with him in Buffalo.  Those seasons found Fitz ranked 10th, 16th and 19th, respectively, in fantasy points per game.  He has a better group of weapons in New York with WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.  And Fitzpatrick gets positive early-season matchups against the Colts (Week 2), Eagles (3) and Redskins (6). 

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans

We dug into the fantasy upside that Mariota’s rushing ability brings in He Could be a Top 10 Guy. If he can reach 500 rushing yards -- plenty doable considering his athleticism and college rushing production -- he has a good chance at QB1 fantasy numbers.

This rookie could also surprise in the passing department. There are questions about his NFL readiness in that area because of the shotgun-centric, spread offense he operated at Oregon. But isolate Mariota’s skill set from that system and it’s clear he has the arm and accuracy to make all the throws he’ll need to. Regardless of the scheme he played in, a career 66.8% completion rate and 1.2% INT rate are damn impressive.

Mariota is off to a strong start. He drew rave reviews from the coaching staff this spring. And he opened training camp with an entire week of INT-less practices. “He’s been very precise,” insider Paul Kuharsky notes.

We’ve seen rookie QBs having more success recently. In fact, there have only been 5 seasons of 3,500+ passing yards by a rookie, and 3 of them have come over the last 5 years. Mariota has the goods to join that list.

Combine that with the rushing potential and you get an idea about the upside here. The best part? You can draft Mariota super late, which mitigates most of the risk with an unproven asset.

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets

We've already presented our thoughts on Ivory's sleeper appeal multiple times on the podcast. And just like we said in Geno Smith's write-up, there's the Chan Gailey factor.

Ivory has been working as the team's clear #1 RB in training camp, and new HC Todd Bowles is apparently impressed.

"He’s as advertised," Bowles told ESPN New York last week. "We knew he was tough and he could pound it up in there. But he cuts well, he’s got good vision [too]. He’s going to have to become a better receiver. He has decent hands. He just needs to concentrate a little more."

Any improvement as a receiver would be a bonus. We'll take Ivory as simply the lead runner for an offense that should still rely pretty heavily on the ground game. (Even an improved Geno Smith shouldn't throw it 35+ times every week.) He can be had into the double-digit rounds across MFL drafts since July 15.

Even non-PPR drafts on Fantasy Football Calculator find Ivory going behind players such as Isaiah Crowell, Tevin Coleman, Joique Bell and Victor Cruz.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons

A sleeper with a bum hamstring? Freeman's current situation certainly adds risk to his fantasy outlook, but the situation of his main competition balances that out.

Freeman spent all spring as Atlanta's starter and opened summer as such, with rookie Tevin Coleman working behind him. Coleman's also fighting hamstring trouble, though, and NFL Network reported Monday morning that both are expected to miss "a few more weeks."

Coleman needs time on the field to pass Freeman on the depth chart. With both sidelined, the Falcons have only role player Antone Smith, undrafted free agent Terron Ward and former practice-squadder Jerome Smith in tow. That group doesn't seem to include a starter.

MFL public drafting since Aug. 1 has still seen Freeman go nearly 2 full rounds later than Coleman on average. Anecdotally, Schauf drafted Freeman at 9.06 as his 4th RB last week (and the 39th off the board) -- 3 rounds after Coleman got picked.

Freeman could turn into tremendous value in that range if he returns to start for the Falcons by September. At worst -- barring a significant free-agent signing -- a healthy Freeman should remain part of an Atlanta committee, likely as the backfield's top receiver.

Stevie Johnson, WR, Chargers

Johnson hasn’t cracked WR3 range since 2012. So we get why some folks are a bit dismissive here.

If you’re down on him because of last year’s dud in San Francisco … well, don’t be. He was the secondary option -- at best -- on a team that ranked 29th in pass attempts. And his QB lacked any sort of weekly consistency.

A move to San Diego projects much more favorably for the 29-year-old. Philip Rivers spoke about their developing chemistry in OTAs. The longtime passer has already praised Johnson in training camp, labeling him a standout.

“If there’s one guy you ask me I’m most excited about, I’d probably single him out just because of the plays he’s made,” Rivers said. “We’ve already had a handful of trust-building plays and confidence-building plays between the two of us, and it’s not that I didn’t already know. I’ve seen his track record and what he did in Buffalo and all that. But until you experience them together, it’s hard and you don’t know. We’ve had a few things [that are] encouraging. It gets me excited to know that he can be a huge part of our success this year.”

Trust is obviously a huge part of any QB-WR connection. But Rivers marks a big upgrade in stability for Johnson, whose past signal-callers included Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick and EJ Manuel.

Beyond that, Johnson figures to benefit from an offense that’s more pass-friendly. Last year, the Bolts finished 14th in pass attempts and 11th in pass rate. Johnson also caught a break with TE Antonio Gates' 4-week suspension. A chunk of Gates' 6.1 targets per game from 2014 should slide to Johnson – potentially including some near the goal line.

With weekly WR3 upside and an ADP in Round 14, Johnson’s a major bargain with little risk.

Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys

This summer, Williams has drawn praise from both his WRs coach and QB.

WRs coach Derek Dooley touted the 3rd-year man’s expanded route tree. It’s a key development for someone who has excelled mostly on downfield routes, evidenced by his 16.8 career yards per catch. In 2014, Williams ranked 6th in percentage of deep-ball targets (30.6%) among WRs with at least 60 total targets.

Dez Bryant’s holdout in OTAs allowed Williams to see extra looks from Tony Romo. The veteran QB clearly came away impressed.

“Terrance has had one of the best off-seasons I’ve seen in a while,” Romo said. “So I’m very excited about his approach, the way that he’s played up to this point in the off-season. He’s just improved, and I’m excited about that development.”

Those are exciting endorsements for a guy who’s already loaded with talent. Williams stands 6’2, 208 pounds and boasts a similar athletic profile to Justin Blackmon. He’s slated for a full-time role opposite 1 of the NFL’s premier WRs. And he has a budding rapport with 1 of the game’s most underrated passers.

Williams also figures to benefit from a boost in volume. Dallas ran on 51.6% of its plays last year -- 3rd highest behind Seattle and Houston. Expect that number to drop with Dallas’ backfield much more unsettled than it was last season.

Williams’ role as a field-stretcher might not make him the most reliable weekly option. But as an ascending player on an offense that likely projects for more pass volume, this big-play threat carries enticing weekly upside.

Brian Quick, WR, Rams

Quick has never lacked for potential. He’s a rocked-up 6’4, 220-pounder with 4.5 speed who drew Terrell Owens comparisons coming out of college. Quick entered the league as a raw prospect out of Appalachian State, though, and totaled just 29 catches through his first 2 NFL seasons.

But he seemed primed for a 3^rd-year breakout. Quick opened the 2014 campaign with a 7-catch, 99-yard outing. He tallied 14 catches, 223 yards and 3 TDs over the next 2 games and was sitting 10^th among WRs in fantasy points per game at that point.

Quick totaled just 3 grabs in his next 2 games and then suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 8. So he’s been off the fantasy radar for a while. That’s exactly what makes him a sleeper heading into 2015.

Quick is being drafted in the 14th round as the 58th WR off the board. That’s an incredibly cheap price to pay for a big, athletic dude who should re-emerge as his team’s #1 WR.

Quick spent the offseason rehabbing that shoulder but has looked good early in camp. He returns to a still-shaky WR corps featuring Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin. Britt led the group with just 748 yards last year. A healthy Quick is the most talented wideout on the roster. He’s capable of picking up where he left off last season and producing as a fantasy starter in 2015.

Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars

Hurns is set to benefit from Marqise Lee’s persistent injuries.

His latest hamstring setback will keep him out until mid or late August. That’s opened the door for Hurns to run with the 1s and impress QB Blake Bortles.

"He's awesome, he was our Mr. Reliable last year," Bortles said. "Obviously, the time we got to spend together in the offseason out in California and then here all of July, it's been really good. That's something that's continuing to grow and he's only getting better."

Insider Ryan O’Halloran called Hurns 1 of his early “standouts” of training camp, noting his “steady” performances. It’s an unusual -- albeit encouraging -- description for a guy who was basically just a deep threat last year. Hurns broke out his senior year at Miami (FL) with 62 grabs, 1,162 yards (18.7 yards per catch) and 6 TDs. As a 2014 rookie, he racked up 4 grabs of 40+ yards en route to a 51-677-6 line. Perhaps we’ll see a more developed route tree in 2015.

There’s certainly room for overall improvement. Hurns dropped 7 passes and caught only 56% of his intended targets as a rookie. The fact that he played alongside a horrid Bortles helps explain those numbers. We’ll see if Bortles improves this year, but he’s positioned himself nicely with a strong offseason.

Of course, Hurns won’t be a target hog in an offense that features Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas. But as a no-risk pick in the midnight rounds, Hurns could prove to be an asset, especially in “best ball” leagues.

Eddie Royal, WR, Bears

Royal scored 8 TDs in 2013 as a member of the Chargers, propelling him to a WR3 season.

With only 47 grabs and 631 yards, this seemed like a case of fluky production. After all, Royal stands just 5’10, 185 pounds. And that season marked his 1st as a fantasy relevant player since his rookie year (2008).

In 2014, Royal surprised fantasy owners yet again. His TDs dropped to 7, but he notched 62 grabs and 778 yards. That was enough for another top-36 fantasy season.

Now that he's in Chicago, we can’t anticipate a heavy dose of TDs. Royal has always relied on short-range scores, finding the end zone 6 times from the 6-yard line or closer since 2013. We know that the bulk of those looks will go to Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte -- and perhaps even Kevin White.

But there’s been plenty of chatter to suggest that Royal will surprise with his reception total. Royal already has a rapport with QB Jay Cutler from their time in Denver. Their lone season together -- Royal’s 1st in the league -- produced a 91-980-5 line in 15 games.

"People didn't get to see what went on behind the scenes," Royal says of his work with Cutler in Denver. "All the conversations we had. All the film study that happened. We put in a lot of work. And the cool part was we enjoyed putting in the work together."

OC Adam Gase provides another familiar face from Royal’s Bronco days. The early returns have proved promising.

"Eddie's got a special explosiveness that a lot of inside guys don't have," Gase says. "Eddie is a threat at all three levels. He can come underneath. He can break out intermediate. And he can get down the field." Gase even tossed out a Wes Welker comparison.

With Kevin White missing crucial time due to injury, Royal’s trending toward immediate WR3 candidacy in PPR leagues. A strong start to the year could find the veteran as a season-long stabilizer. Despite a lack of high-end upside, Royal looks like a solid flier with an ADP in Round 15.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks

The end of your draft is a time to basically ignore projections and look for lottery-ticket types: players who could present extreme upside if things break their way. Lockett undeniably fits that category.

Seattle's run-leaning ways lower the ceiling on its passing-game prospects a bit, but QB Russell Wilson's efficiency makes up for that. He ranks a solid 11th in completion rate over the past 3 years among all QBs with more than 1 year of starting duty in that span. Wilson ranks an even better 3rd in yards per attempt over that span and finished his 1st 2 seasons among the league's top 3 in TD rate.

Blame a terrible receiving group -- at least, predominantly -- for last year's TD rate stumble. It's tough to consistently toss scoring passes when you're depending on WRs Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse and TEs Luke Willson and Cooper Helfet. Rookie WR Paul Richardson ranked 4th among 2014 Seahawks with just 44 targets, while starting only 6 games.

That's the 1st part of Lockett's path to lottery-ticket status. Sure, Seattle traded for TE Jimmy Graham, the clear favorite to lead this year's squad in targets. But the rookie wideout could quickly turn into the #1 option at his position. We've already heard repeated praise from HC Pete Carroll, and Baldwin has expressed awe for how talented and comfortable Lockett already looks.

We watched the Seahawks just 3 years ago turn 3rd-round QB Wilson into an instant starter because he was simply their best player at the position. Lockett, who has already been working in the slot and outside, could follow a similar path -- at a dollar-store price.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals

Eifert was on lots of sleeper lists around this time last year. The 2013 first-rounder was coming off an encouraging 39-445-2 rookie campaign and seemed primed for a larger role as a sophomore.

That appeared to be the case -- at least through less than 1 half of action. In 8 snaps in last year’s opener, Eifert hauled in all 3 of his targets for 37 yards. Then came a season-ending elbow injury. Eight snaps obviously isn’t enough to make a reliable projection for 2015, but it’s encouraging nonetheless.

However, it’s the glowing reports on Eifert this offseason that put him on this sleeper list. ESPN’s Cole Harvey talked him up this spring, writing that Eifert “caught virtually everything thrown his way.” The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Paul Dehner Jr. predicted a breakout 2015 for Eifert just before training camp. And Geoff Hobson of the Bengals’ website told us that “nobody has been able to cover” Eifert early in camp.

Hobson later projected 60-65 catches for Eifert. Only 11 TEs reached 60 grabs last year, and they all finished among the top 14 in PPR points.

One of those guys was Eifert’s former teammate, Jermaine Gresham. He ranked 11^th among TEs in catches (62) and 16^th in targets (80) last year, so there’s plenty of room for TE production in this run-heavy offense. Sure, WR A.J. Green missed 3 games and WR Marvin Jones didn’t play at all last year. But Eifert is also more talented than Gresham and figures to command a bigger piece of the passing pie.

This is a top-notch prospect we’re talking about. Eifert racked up 113 catches, 1,488 yards and 9 TDs over his final 2 seasons at Notre Dame. He checked into the 2013 Combine at 6’5, 250 pounds and posted marks in the 40-yard dash, vertical, broad and 3-cone that all rank among the top 25% of TEs. Eifert’s SPARQ score, which factors in size and measurables, sits in the 71st percentile.

Eifert is a young, athletic, ascending TE set to play a major role in his team’s 2015 passing game. With an ADP in the late 11th round, he’s a perfect target if you’re planning to wait on TE.

Virgil Green, TE, Broncos

Flash back to 2013. The Broncos had a young, athletic but unproven TE stashed away who wasn’t expected to play a major role. His name was Julius Thomas, and he ended up exploding for a 65-788-12 line and top-3 fantasy finish.

Green is in a similar spot heading into 2015. Most expect him to play 2nd fiddle to Owen Daniels. But like Thomas, Green has the ability to force his way into a bigger role.

In fact, Green has the edge over Thomas in measurables. At the 2011 Combine, Green (6’3, 249 pounds) checked in 2 inches shorter but 3 pounds heavier than Thomas. Then he bested his future teammate in 40 time (4.64 to 4.68), vertical (42.5” to 35.5”), broad (130” to 111”) and 3-cone (6.90 to 6.96). From a size and athleticism standpoint, Green is elite. His SPARQ score sits in the 89th percentile among TEs. (Thomas’ is down in the 70^th.)

Green remains largely unproven as an NFL pass-catcher, at least in part because he’s such a good blocker. He ranked 4^th among TEs in Pro Football Focus’ 2014 run-blocking grades after a 24^th-place finish in 2013. But Green has hauled in 23 of 29 (79.3%) of his career targets. And he posted a 35-515-5 line in his final college season, ranking 2^nd in yards and tied for 1^st in TDs on Nevada’s run-heavy offense.

We can’t yet know exactly how big a receiving role Green will play in 2015. Thomas is gone, but Denver added Daniels, who’s spent all 9 of his NFL seasons with HC Gary Kubiak. The Broncos also signed TE/H-Back types James Casey and Joe Don Duncan. It’s worth noting, though, that Green opted to re-sign with Denver this offseason rather than heading to Atlanta. Would he have done so without being promised a larger role in the passing game?

We’ll be keeping a close eye on Thomas’ role in preseason action. But he’s basically free in drafts and has the athleticism to emerge as a major fantasy asset.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.