Ravens Offense Can't Possibly Improve on Last Year ... Can It?

Baltimore Ravens 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Lamar Jackson

Bottom Line: Lamar Can Repeat his 2024

Jackson delivered his best all-around season as a passer while maintaining elite rushing production last year, finishing as the overall QB1 in both total and per-game fantasy scoring. With improved accuracy, explosive playmaking, and offensive stability, he enters 2025 as a top-tier QB who should challenge to be the overall QB1 again.

2024 Summary

Lamar Leaves No Doubt

Jackson dominated the 2024 fantasy landscape, finishing QB1 in total points (488.1) and points per game (28.7). 

He threw for 4,172 yards (6th), 41 TDs (T-2nd), and just four INTs (T-29th) while adding 915 rushing yards (1st among QBs) and four rushing scores (T-9th). 

He posted seven top-five finishes and was a top-12 QB in 16 of 17 games, offering league-winning weekly consistency.

Passing Rises to Match Rushing

Jackson’s dual-threat role remained central to Baltimore’s offense. He led all QBs with:

• 139 carries
• 570 yards on designed runs
• 364.5 expected yards on designed runs

While his 1.7 expected rushing TDs ranked 6th, his passing production exploded, surpassing expectations by a league-high 13.3 TDs above expected.

He was given the full reins of the offense while defenses had to respect RB Derrick Henry, and it paid off handsomely.

Elite Passing, Explosive Plays, Minimal Mistakes

Jackson set multiple career bests in 2024:

• 92.6 PFF passing grade (2nd among QBs with 300+ dropbacks)
• 78.7% on-target throw rate
• 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate (lowest in NFL)

He also ranked eighth in PFF QB rushing grade, third in average target depth (9.4 yards), and sixth in big-time throw rate (5.5%). 

His 14.6% deep throw rate (3rd) and 3.14-second time to throw (most in NFL) highlight his ability to extend plays while still hitting big downfield shots.

Run-Heavy Offense Doesn't Cap Jackson

Baltimore remained run-leaning with Henry and Jackson (25th in pace, 47.5% pass rate). But that rushing combined with Jackson’s play-action efficiency, deep-ball accuracy, and red-zone dominance helped him lead the league in fantasy scoring. 

The offensive line excelled (3rd in ESPN pass and run blocking success rate), providing Jackson with protection and clean lanes. 

Henry’s emergence as a rusher was viewed as a potential negative to Jackson’s fantasy value before the season, but his success allowed for more scoring opportunities and efficiency.

Lamar Gets More Polished, and More Dangerous

Jackson built on his past MVP-caliber seasons with his most efficient passing year yet. 

He’s now produced four seasons with 25+ total TDs and 800+ rushing yards. 

His passing improvements in accuracy and decision-making suggest this version of Lamar is more sustainable — and arguably more dangerous — than ever.

QB Proves More Durable as Well

Jackson hasn’t missed a game in the past two years due to injury.

In 2022, he dealt with a PCL sprain that cost him six games. 

In 2021, he missed four games due to an ankle sprain.  

Despite being a “running QB”, his clean bill of health over the past two seasons and durability across a high-usage season gives confidence in Jackson completing another full season in 2025.

2025 Expectations

He's Still the Franchise

Jackson is entrenched as the focal point of the Ravens’ offense. 

The Ravens did add Cooper Rush via free agency to back up Jackson. Second-year QB Devin Leary is expected to round out the QB room.

With no legitimate competition behind him and a system built around his unique skill set, he’ll continue to handle heavy volume both as a passer and rusher.

The Band’s Back Together

Baltimore returns a strong supporting cast with WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman returning. Both saw significant improvements in receiving yards, yards per reception, and yards per target.

TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely also retain their roles in 12 personnel. Both were among the top 13 TEs in PFF receiving grade, aDOT, and average separation last year.

RB Derrick Henry signed an extension this offseason while Justice Hill will be used on some passing downs.

The OL remains intact, returning starting OTs Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten as well as the interior OL Tyler Linderbaum, Andrew Vorhees, and Daniel Faalele. 

In 2024, the Ravens ranked third in ESPN pass blocking success rate (70%).

Monken + Lamar = Magic

Jackson has found success over the last two seasons with OC Todd Monken.

Monken’s offense gives Jackson more control at the line and has helped elevate his processing and accuracy while still maintaining his rushing upside.

Surprisingly, the Ravens’ pace of play has been slower than expected over that time, ranking 23rd and 25th in 2023 and 2024, respectively. 

The pass rate did decline with the addition of Derrick Henry, going from 49.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2024.

Their neutral pass rate also declined from 53.7% in 2023 to 52.6% in 2024.

Luckily, Jackson’s legs allow him to excel regardless of the scheme. 

Derrick Henry

Bottom Line: The King Still Reigns

Henry proved he's still an elite fantasy force at age 30, finishing as the RB3 while leading the league in rushing efficiency and red-zone dominance. With Baltimore's ground-heavy scheme and elite offensive line, he enters 2025 as a high-floor RB1 with volume and TD security.

2024 Summary

Henry Delivered -- Again

Henry racked up 1,921 total yards (2nd) and 16 rushing TDs (T-1st) on his way to 338.4 fantasy points (RB3) and 19.9 PPR points per game (RB3). 

He added 19 catches for 193 yards on 22 targets, adding just a touch of receiving value to his elite ground production. 

He posted seven top-10 RB finishes, with only two games outside the top 25.

Henry Got Help and Hit Another Gear

Henry was the undisputed workhorse in Baltimore, dominating early-down and red-zone touches:

• 90% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line
• 53 red-zone carries (6th among RBs)

The Ravens' scheme and O-line combined with Henry’s talent allowed him to flourish in the role. He averaged 3.1 yards before contact per attempt last season — after never topping 2.5 yards in any of his eight years in Tennessee.

Despite low receiving usage, he was active on all three downs and remained on the field in key situations, helped by a strong PFF pass-blocking grade (65.4, 10th among RBs).

His PFF Receiving Grade (75.0) surprisingly ranked 7th among RBs with 75+ carries, showing that Henry could handle more receiving work in the future.

Efficiency Hits New Heights

Henry posted arguably the best efficiency season of his career:

• 4.9 yards per carry (10th among RBs with 75+ carries)
• 3.50 yards after contact per attempt (T-fifth)
• 41.8% breakaway run rate (T-second)
• 1.77 rushing yards over expected per attempt (first)
• 93.1 PFF rushing grade (first)

He also ranked 10th in Elusive Rating (89.5) and 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21), showing he was still a nightmare for defenders to bring down in space.

RB, QB Help Each Other in Run-Heavy Offense

Baltimore remained run-leaning with Henry and Lamar Jackson (25th in pace, 47.5% pass rate). Henry’s efficient rushing allowed the team to lean on him in early downs for chunk yardage.

The offensive line excelled (3rd in ESPN run-blocking success rate), providing Henry with space to punish defenses.

Having Jackson as a QB rushing threat opened up even more lanes for Henry than he previously had in Tennessee. 

Henry Doesn't Age Like a Human

Henry continues to defy age curves. 

Despite entering his age-31 season, Henry has now finished top-6 in fantasy points per game in each of the last four seasons.

And the guy rarely even gets hurt.

Henry played all 17 games in 2024 and showed no signs of physical decline. He hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2021.

2025 Expectations

No One’s Taking His Carries

Henry returns as the clear early-down and goal-line back in one of the league’s most run-committed offenses. 

Justice Hill returns as the pass-catching RB. Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali will compete for the third spot on the depth chart.

Henry will retain his role in 2025. His TD equity, carry volume, and efficiency lock him in as a potential top-10 fantasy RB once again.

Baltimore’s Offense Built to Bully Again

Lamar Jackson remains an elite QB whose presence keeps defenders honest both in the run and pass games.

WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman return, along with TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, keeping the core of the offense intact.

The OL also will be returning starting OTs Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten as well as the interior OL Tyler Linderbaum, Andrew Vorhees, and Daniel Faalele. 

In 2024, the Ravens ranked third in ESPN run-blocking success rate (74%).

Ravens Pass Even Less With Henry Around

Leaning more into the run led to a slower pace of play for OC Todd Monken’s offense in 2024. Baltimore finished 25th with 62.1 plays per game, down from 63.3 plays per game in 2023. 

The pass rate also declined with the addition of Henry, going from 49.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2024.

Their neutral pass rate declined from 53.7% in 2023 to 52.6% in 2024.

Henry’s impact allowed the team to lean more on the run in run situations, but still have the flexibility to turn to Jackson’s arm.

Justice Hill

Bottom Line: Hill's Still Just a High-Upside Handcuff

Hill carved out a valuable niche in 2024 as Baltimore’s receiving back, flashing elite efficiency both as a pass-catcher and change-of-pace runner. While capped by limited volume, he enters 2025 as a RB5 with deep-league and best-ball appeal.

2024 Summary

Hill Made Most of Limited Opportunities

Hill finished RB38 in total PPR points (127.1) and RB44 in points per game (8.5) across 15 games. 

He totaled just 47 carries for 228 yards and one rushing TD, but added 42 catches (T-14th among RBs) for 383 yards (11th) and 3 receiving TDs (T-5th) on 51 targets. 

He posted four top-24 fantasy finishes, primarily in games with elevated passing volume or explosive plays.

Receiving Role Gave Hill Fantasy Life

Hill was used as Baltimore’s clear passing-down back, operating in space and often lining up in motion or on angle routes. 

He had a nearly even split in run concepts (25 zone / 13 gap) but rarely found use between the tackles. 

His pass-game role kept him fantasy-relevant despite low carry volume.

Hyper-Efficiency Helped

Hill was elite across multiple advanced metrics despite limited touches:

• 4.9 yards per carry (10th among RBs with 40+ carries)
• 4.19 yards after contact per attempt (1st)
• 40.8% breakaway run rate (4th)
• 113.0 Elusive Rating (5th)
• 1.64 yards per route (9th)
• 88.8 PFF receiving grade (3rd) 

His only liability remained pass protection (56.1 pass-blocking grade, 28th), which occasionally limited late-down usage.

Scheme Plays to This Hill Strength

The Ravens ran a run-heavy (47.5% pass rate), slow-paced offense (25th in pace), but their elite OL (third in both pass and run blocking success) and Lamar Jackson’s skillset opened space for Hill to operate efficiently. 

Baltimore’s scheme favors RBs who can create mismatches in space, which favors Hill when he is on the field.

Small Role Still Showed Growth

2024 was Hill’s best season as a receiver.

After years of being a low-volume, change-of-pace option, he emerged as a legitimate third-down asset. 

He achieved career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs.

Spotty Injury History, But No Lingering Issue

Hill missed one game in 2024 with a concussion.

Since 2020, Hill has missed at least one game per season due to injury.

His most significant injury was an Achilles tear that cost him all of 2021.

2025 Expectations

If Henry Falters, Hill Could Pop

Hill returns as the likely No. 2 behind Derrick Henry, specializing in passing situations and high-leverage third downs. 

Keaton Mitchell and Rasheen Ali will compete for the third position on the depth chart, but neither is a threat to Hill’s role.

Henry’s dominance caps Hill’s upside. But if Henry does go down, Hill could put up RB2 numbers in PPR.

Core Weapons and Blocking Remain Intact

QB Lamar Jackson remains an elite QB whose presence keeps defenders honest both in the run and the pass. 

WRs Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman return, along with TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, keeping the core of the offense intact.

The OL also will be returning starting OTs Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten as well as the interior OL Tyler Linderbaum, Andrew Vorhees, and Daniel Faalele. 

In 2024, they ranked third in ESPN run blocking success rate (74%).

Increased Run Lean Challenges Hill's Usage

Leaning more into the run led to a slower pace of play for OC Todd Monken’s offense in 2024. Baltimore finished 25th with 62.1 plays per game, down from 63.3 plays per game in 2023. 

The pass rate also declined with the addition of Henry, going from 49.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2024.

Their neutral pass rate declined from 53.7% in 2023 to 52.6% in 2024.

Hill could benefit from an increased pass rate, but there was enough passing to make him a viable streaming RB in PPR.

Expect High Efficiency to Continue

Hill’s 2024 profile was all about doing more with less. He ranked top-10 in:

• yards after contact
• breakaway rate
• yards per route
• and receiving grade

That trend likely continues in 2025, with all the key pieces of the offense returning.

Zay Flowers

Bottom Line: Flowers Brings Nice Floor and Breakout Potential

Flowers made a second-year leap in 2024, improving across all efficiency metrics and emerging as the clear No. 1 WR in Baltimore. The Ravens’ run-heavy system limited his fantasy ceiling, but he enters 2025 as a high-floor WR3 with breakout potential if the passing volume increases.

2024 Summary

Flowers Scored Like a WR3

Flowers delivered 209.5 PPR fantasy points (WR25) and averaged 12.3 PPR points per game (WR37) across 17 games. 

He posted 74 receptions (T-22nd) for 1,059 yards (16th) and 4 TDs, while also adding 56 rushing yards on nine carries. 

Flowers logged three top-12 finishes and six top-24 weeks, making him a solid but not elite weekly option.

But He Grew Into a Trusted Target

Flowers saw 7.1 targets per game and led the team with a 25.6% target share, up from 23.2% as a rookie. 

He was used 61.7% wide and 38.1% in the slot, giving him alignment versatility. 

According to Fantasy Points, Flowers served as Baltimore’s primary first-read target on 29.9% of dropbacks (21st among WRs).

Flowers Delivers Boosted Efficiency

Flowers made notable efficiency gains in Year 2:

• 2.26 yards per route (14th among WRs with 50+ targets)
• 84.2 PFF receiving grade (15th)
• 14.3 yards per catch (up from 11.1 in 2023)
• 6.3 yards after catch per reception (11th) and +6.2 yards after catch over expectation
• 3.9 yards of average separation (seventh)

The Ravens also targeted Flowers downfield more frequently. His 10.0-yard average target depth marked a rise from 8.4 in 2023.

Scheme Has Limited His Upside

The Ravens deployed a run-heavy (47.5% pass rate), slow-paced offense (25th in pace), but their elite line (third in both pass and run blocking success) and Lamar Jackson’s skill set still allowed the passing game to flourish. 

Flowers has opened his career with back-to-back seasons of 100+ targets and consistent yards after catch per reception production (6.3 in 2023 and 6.2 in 2024). 

His yards per route improved from 1.64 to 2.25, and he now has nine total TDs on a 6.0% rate, nearly matching his 9.1 expected scores through two seasons.

He's Built to Handle the Hits

Flowers suffered an LCL sprain in his right knee in Week 18, but did not miss the Ravens playoff game two weeks later.

He has never missed a game due to injury in his NFL or college career.

2025 Expectations

Top Dog in a Thin WR Room

Flowers returns as the Ravens’ locked-in No. 1 WR.

The WR depth chart remains thin. Deep threat Rashod Bateman returns, and the Ravens added DeAndre Hopkins. But the 33-year-old arrived on a smallish, one-year contract off a career-low 3.5 receptions per game.

The Ravens drafted LaJohntay Wester in the sixth round and return former fourth-round picks Tylan Wallace and Devontez Walker

TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely could threaten Flowers’ volume week-to-week, but their roles have become fairly clear over the last two seasons.

Stable Supporting Cast Enhances Outlook

Flowers benefits from playing with MVP-caliber QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson had a career year despite a declining pass rate from the offense. As long as there is a healthy Jackson under center, the offense should thrive.

RB Derrick Henry made a significant impact in his first year with the Ravens while Justice Hill handled some receiving work.

The O-line remains intact, returning starting OTs Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten as well as the interior OL Tyler Linderbaum, Andrew Vorhees, and Daniel Faalele. 

In 2024, they ranked third in ESPN pass-blocking success rate (70%).

Ravens Need to Let Zay Cook

Leaning more into the run led to a slower pace of play for OC Todd Monken’s offense in 2024. Baltimore finished 25th with 62.1 plays per game, down from 63.3 plays per game in 2023. 

The pass rate also declined with the addition of Henry, going from 49.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2024.

Their neutral pass rate declined from 53.7% in 2023 to 52.6% in 2024.

Flowers’ efficiency with Jackson at QB allows enough PPR fantasy scoring, even with a middling pass rate.

Rashod Bateman

Bottom Line: Low Volume Hurts But There's Spike-Week Potential

Bateman delivered his healthiest and most productive season in 2024, emerging as a dangerous vertical threat with red-zone upside. While volume remained modest in the Ravens’ run-heavy scheme, his role as a perimeter playmaker keeps him in the mix as a high-variance WR5 with spike-week potential entering 2025.

2024 Summary

Bateman Finally Breaks Through

Bateman finished with 174.6 fantasy points (WR40) and averaged 10.9 PPR points per game (WR48) over 16 games. 

He tallied 45 receptions for 756 yards (38th) and nine TDs (T-8th) on 72 targets (T-56th). 

He posted five top-24 finishes, including one top-five week, though he often faded in low-volume games.

Merely An Option, Not Primary Target

Bateman played a traditional outside receiver role (92.1% wide), averaging 4.5 targets per game and earning a 16.3% target share. 

According to Fantasy Points, he was rarely the primary read (14.6% first-read rate, 78th among WRs) and functioned more as a situational deep threat and red-zone option than a consistent target earner.

Deep Passing Key to His Value

Bateman thrived in the vertical game:

• 17.0-yard average target depth (4th among WRs with 50+ targets)
• 3.6-yard average separation (11th)

He posted a solid 1.63 yards per route (45th) and 0.4 yards after catch over expectation, but his drop rate (9.1%) and 69.9 PFF receiving grade suggest some room for improvement in consistency.

Bateman’s Production Tied to Game Script

The Ravens deployed a run-heavy (47.5% pass rate), slow-paced offense (25th in pace), but their elite O-line (third in both pass and run blocking success) and Lamar Jackson’s skill set allowed the passing game to be efficient.

Bateman stretched the field to keep secondaries honest and only seemed to thrive in games when teams sold out to stop the run.

Body Finally Holds Up

Bateman stayed healthy for 16 games in 2024, a significant improvement after missing time in each of his first three seasons. 

He missed one game in 2023 with a hamstring pull, and a Lisfranc fracture cost him most of his 2022 season.

2025 Expectations

Bateman’s Role Is Clear: Stretch the Field and Score

Bateman is locked in as the Ravens’ primary outside deep threat opposite Zay Flowers. 

While Flowers leads the team in targets, Bateman should continue to handle vertical and red-zone routes. 

The WR depth chart remains thin with new addition DeAndre Hopkins potentially adding a veteran presence. 

The Ravens drafted LaJohntay Wester in the sixth round and return former fourth-round picks Tylan Wallace and Devontez Walker

TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely will retain their roles and could be targeted similarly to Bateman.

Elite Infrastructure Keeps Bateman in Play

Bateman benefits from playing with MVP-caliber QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson had a career year despite a declining pass rate from the offense. As long as there is a healthy Jackson under center, the offense should thrive.

RB Derrick Henry made a significant impact in his first year with the Ravens while Justice Hill handled some receiving work.

The OL remains intact, returning starting OTs Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten as well as the interior OL Tyler Linderbaum, Andrew Vorhees, and Daniel Faalele. 

In 2024, they ranked third in ESPN pass-blocking success rate (70%).

Plodding Tempo Adds Challenge, Though

Leaning more into the run led to a slower pace of play for OC Todd Monken’s offense in 2024. Baltimore finished 25th with 62.1 plays per game, down from 63.3 plays per game in 2023. 

The pass rate also declined with the addition of Henry, going from 49.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2024.

Their neutral pass rate declined from 53.7% in 2023 to 52.6% in 2024.

Mark Andrews

Bottom Line: Andrews Worth Drafting

Despite a slow start, Andrews continued to produce as an elite red-zone threat in 2024, leading all TEs in TDs despite a dip in volume. Isaiah Likely's presence lowers his weekly ceiling, but Andrews remains a solid TE1 with top-3 upside if Likely misses time.

2024 Summary

Mr. Touchdown Returns

Andrews finished TE6 in total fantasy points (188.8) and TE8 in points per game (11.1) across 17 games. 

He turned 69 targets into 55 catches, 673 yards (ninth among TEs), and 11 TDs (first). 

He delivered six top-5 TE finishes and 11 top-12 weeks.

Andrews has now scored 26 TDs over the last three seasons, cementing his status as one of the NFL’s premier scoring threats at the position. 

Usage Picked Up After Slow Start

Andrews’ overall usage dipped in 2024:

• 67% route rate (down from 73% in 2023)
• 14.5% target share and 19.3% targets per route (both career lows)

However, from Week 6 on, his usage improved:

• 70% route rate
• 16.9% target share
• 21.6% targets per route 

Andrews continued to work primarily from the slot (61.1%) and posted a 15.9% first-read rate, serving as Lamar Jackson’s go-to weapon in key spots.

High Efficiency Made Up for Opportunity Dip

Andrews remained one of the league’s best TEs per route:

• 86.2 PFF receiving grade (fourth among TEs with 30+ targets)
• 1.88 yards per route (eighth)
• 10.2-yard average target depth (second)
• 79.7% catch rate (12th)
• 11 TDs (first among TEs) on 6.5 expected TDs (T-fifth) 

He also posted strong separation (3.6 yards, 11th) and maintained a low drop rate (3.8%).

Andrews Remains Elite Despite Sharing More

The Ravens deployed a run-heavy (47.5% pass rate), slow-paced offense (25th in pace), but their elite OL (3rd in both pass and run blocking success) and Lamar Jackson’s skillset allowed the passing game to be efficient.

2024 saw the Ravens with the lowest pass split in the past four years. They likely return to passing the ball more, especially if the defense takes a step back, meaning more balls coming Andrews' way.

Plus there are even more paths to Andrews earning more volume. If one of the Ravens' offensive weapons gets hurt or the team gets behind in more games, he would likely gain an even bigger role. 

Having two capable TEs in Andrews and Likely helps the offensive identity, but creates some dips in production for Andrews. 

The Ravens used 12-personnel on 11.1% of snaps in 2024, ranking 27th in the NFL.

Having two capable TEs combined with the lack of 12-personnel led to one of the TEs being off the field in key situations.

Fully Recovered, Fully Dangerous

After missing time in previous seasons, Andrews played all 17 games in 2024. 

He missed the final seven games in 2023 after suffering a serious left ankle injury in Week 11.

2025 Expectations

When Andrews Eats

Andrews returns as the Ravens’ starting TE, but Isaiah Likely’s continued development poses a volume challenge. 

In 17 games with Likely active, Andrews averaged 3.9 targets and 10.1 PPR points per game. 

In two games without Likely, that jumped to 6 targets and 17.2 PPR points per game. 

The Ravens also bring back blocking TE Charlie Kolar as their third-stringer.

Stellar Core Boosts Offensive Efficiency

Andrews benefits from playing with MVP-caliber QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson had a career year despite a declining pass rate from the offense. As long as there is a healthy Jackson under center, the offense should thrive.

RB Derrick Henry made a significant impact in his first year with the Ravens while Justice Hill handled some receiving work.

While target competition is limited, the team’s low pass volume caps Andrews' target ceiling.

The O-line remains intact, returning starting OTs Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten as well as the interior OL Tyler Linderbaum, Andrew Vorhees, and Daniel Faalele. 

Offensive Design Challenges Andrews’ Ceiling

Leaning more into the run led to a slower pace of play for OC Todd Monken’s offense in 2024. Baltimore finished 25th with 62.1 plays per game, down from 63.3 plays per game in 2023. 

The pass rate also declined with the addition of Henry, going from 49.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2024.

Their neutral pass rate declined from 53.7% in 2023 to 52.6% in 2024.

Isaiah Likely

Bottom Line: Premium Handcuff If Andrews Goes Down

Likely made a strong case for expanded usage in 2024, flashing top-tier efficiency and yards after catch ability in a complementary role. But he will remain overshadowed by Mark Andrews. He profiles as a TE2 with upside if Andrews misses time.

2024 Summary

Likely Delivers Big Plays as No. 2

Likely finished with 125.7 fantasy points (TE16) and 8.4 points per game (TE20) across 15 games. 

He totaled 42 catches for 477 yards (23rd) on 58 targets (T-27th) while posting four top-10 fantasy finishes. 

However, he also had seven weeks outside the top 24, reflecting his volatile weekly role.

Ravens Deployed Him Like a Big WR

Likely operated in a high-impact, low-volume role with a 13.4% target share in games played.

He lined up 55.6% in the slot and just 32.1% inline, highlighting his function more as a big slot/WR hybrid than a traditional TE. 

Likely rarely drew the first read (14% first-read rate according to Fantasy Points, 22nd among TEs) but found himself frequently set up to gain yards after the catch.

His Efficiency Stood Out

Likely ranked among the most efficient TEs in the NFL:

• 1.55 yards per route (15th among TEs with 30+ Targets)
• 72.1 PFF receiving grade (13th)
• 6.3 yards after catch per reception (fouth)
• +1.3 yards after catch over expectation (fifth)
• 4.3-yard average separation (T-third among TEs) 

He also ranked third in ESPN's receiver score, showcasing elite movement skills and open-field threat potential. His 8.9-yard average target depth (fifth) reflected intermediate and deep usage, not just underneath routes.

Defenses Couldn't Afford to Focus on Him

Baltimore’s run-heavy offense (47.5% pass rate, 25th in pace) limited raw target volume, but Likely benefited from mismatches created by Lamar Jackson and play-action spacing. The Ravens’ top-tier blocking unit gave Jackson time to extend plays, often allowing Likely to uncover late.

The Ravens used 12 personnel on 11.1% of snaps in 2024, ranking 27th in the NFL.

Having two capable TEs combined with the lack of 12-personnel led to one of the TEs being off the field in key situations.

No Injury Concerns Here

Likely missed one game in 2024 due to a hamstring injury.

He has only missed one other NFL game, a 2022 contest that found him nursing an ankle injury.

2025 Expectations

Likely’s Ceiling Hinges on Andrews’ Availability

Likely will again serve as Baltimore’s No. 2 TE behind Mark Andrews, but he has carved out a reliable complementary role. 

Going back to 2023, Likely has averaged 2.4 receptions on 3.4 targets for 26.4 receiving yards and 0.3 TDs per game in the 36 games with Andrews in the lineup. This amounted to 6.5 PPR points per game.   

In 10 games without Andrews, that jumped to 3.3 receptions on 5.0 targets for 48.7 receiving yards, 0.7 TDs, and 12.4 PPR points per game. 

If Andrews misses time, Likely becomes an instant TE1 option. 

Lamar Boosts Efficiency, Not Opportunity

Likely benefits from playing with MVP-caliber QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson had a career year despite a declining pass rate from the offense. As long as there is a healthy Jackson under center, the offense should thrive.

RB Derrick Henry made a significant impact in his first year with the Ravens while Justice Hill handled some receiving work.

While target competition is limited, the team’s low pass volume caps Likely’s target ceiling compared to TEs in pass-heavy environments.

The OL remains intact, returning starting OTs Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten as well as the interior OL Tyler Linderbaum, Andrew Vorhees, and Daniel Faalele. 

System May Keep Him Capped

Leaning more into the run led to a slower pace of play for OC Todd Monken’s offense in 2024. Baltimore finished 25th with 62.1 plays per game, down from 63.3 plays per game in 2023. 

The pass rate also declined with the addition of Henry, going from 49.7% in 2023 to 47.5% in 2024.

Their neutral pass rate declined from 53.7% in 2023 to 52.6% in 2024.

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