Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

The Vegas Data You’re Not Using, But Should Be

The Lions and Buccaneers are prime regression candidates.

The Chiefs offense is ready to rebound.

The Bears, Jaguars, and Patriots are set to score a lot more points this season.

Those are just a few key fantasy football takeaways from 2025 Vegas implied point totals.

Which Offenses Will Be the Best and Worst in 2025?

With point spreads and over/unders for all 272 regular-season games, we can deduce how many points the oddsmakers are projecting each team to score each week.

The table below shows the average implied points per game for every team this season, ranked from most to least.

Fantasy Football Takeaways

Bills and Ravens in Tier of Their Own

The Bills and Ravens finished second and third, respectively, in points per game last year. The oddsmakers have them as clearly the two best offenses in 2025. Their implied totals sit more than a point ahead of every other team. That's bigger than the gap between the third- and ninth-ranked offenses.

The strong scoring projection is baked into the price tags on guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and James Cook. But it's a reminder that cheaper fantasy picks such as Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Keon Coleman, and Ray Davis have paths to big TD totals.

Are We About to See the 'Old' Chiefs Offense again?

Kansas City's offense has been relatively disappointing the last two seasons, finishing 15th in points both years.

That followed top-6 finishes in each of QB Patrick Mahomes' first five seasons as starter.

The oddsmakers expect the Chiefs to return to that scoring level in 2025. If they're right, Mahomes and all of his primary pass-catchers could beat ADP.

RB Isiah Pacheco also looks like a strong value as the lead back in a high-scoring offense.

The Commanders are Legit

The oddsmakers are not expecting a step back from Washington's offense this season. The Commanders are implied to score the fifth-most points, up one spot from their sixth-place finish in points last year.

OC Kliff Kingsbury and QB Jayden Daniels are back for their second season together. And Washington made key additions in WR Deebo Samuel and LT Laremy Tunsil.

This is an offense to buy in fantasy drafts.

What's Up with the Bengals?

I'm honestly not sure what to make of this one.

The Bengals have finished seventh, seventh, and sixth in points in QB Joe Burrow's last three healthy seasons. They return all their key weapons this year ... but are projected for just the ninth most points.

It's something we'll be chewing on for the rest of the offseason. But we're not adjusting our projections, which have Cincinnati tied for the third most offensive TDs.

Do Jeanty and Bowers Face a Scoring Problem?

Jeanty and Bowers will get picked inside the first two rounds of most fantasy drafts. Yet their offense is implied to score the sixth-fewest points.

So should we fade those guys?

I don't think so.

For starters (and at risk of betting against the really sharp folks who make these lines), I think the Raiders offense with OC Chip Kelly and QB Geno Smith will finish better than 27th in points.

Beyond that, Jeanty's and Bowers' fantasy values are fueled more by volume than TDs. We have Jeanty projected for the fourth-most opportunities (carries plus targets) and Bowers for the second-most targets among TEs.

Both guys remain fine picks at ADP.

Which Offenses Will Improve (Or Regress) This Season?

The answer to this question can help us spot undervalued players in fantasy drafts and avoid overvalued players.

The table below shows each team’s difference between 2025 implied points per game and 2024 actual points per game.

Fantasy Football Takeaways

The Lions will be HOW MUCH worse?!

The Lions averaged 4.0 offensive TDs per game last year, the most since the 2018 Chiefs. They're clearly a strong bet to regress this season.

But it's a bit jarring to see how far the oddsmakers expect this offense to fall. After easily leading the league in points per game last year, Detroit is projected for "just" the fourth-most points this season.

That'd still be a nice season. But would it be enough for Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams to pay off their ADPs. I don't think so.

It's one of the reasons our rankings sit below consensus on most Lions.

Concerns in Tampa Bay

The offense expected to take the second-biggest dive in points per game? The Buccaneers.

The Bucs were one of the biggest surprises of 2024, tying for fourth in points. This year's implied totals have them falling to seventh and scoring 4.1 fewer points per game.

There are multiple concerns here:

1. OC Liam Coen is gone, replaced by OC Josh Grizzard, who has never called plays at any level.
2. All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs is expected to miss the start of the season after early-July knee surgery.
3. WR Chris Godwin is iffy for Week 1 after dislocating his ankle last October.

At minimum, QB Baker Mayfield looks overvalued at his sixth-round, QB7 ADP.

Expect Big Leaps for Patriots, Bears, Jaguars

None of these teams reached 19 points per game last year. They're all implied to top 22 points per game this year, making them the three biggest projected risers.

The commonalities? New coaching staffs and young(ish) QBs.

Ben Johnson in Chicago and Liam Coen in Jacksonville look like massive upgrades in scheme and play calling for their respective teams. Josh McDaniels brings experience and stability to New England's offense.

Couple those upgrades with QBs who should still be ascending, and it's easy to see all three of these offenses taking off in 2025.

Next Up

Most Accurate Fantasy Football Experts 2025: Kevin English of Draft Sharks

Next Article  

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.