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Brock Bowers Is a Stud. Why That Doesn't Matter for 2025

Las Vegas Raiders 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Key Additions

• RB Ashton Jeanty
• QB Geno Smith
• WR Jack Bech
• WR Dont'e Thornton Jr.
• RB Raheem Mostert

Key Departures

• QB Gardner Minshew
• RB Alexander Mattison

Notable Coaching Changes

• HC Pete Carroll replaces Antonio Pierce
• OC Chip Kelly replaces combo of Luke Getsy and Scott Turner
• QBs coach Greg Olson returns. He previously served as Raiders OC 2018-21. He more recently coached Seattle QBs in 2023, under Carroll.

Geno Smith

Bottom Line: Weapons Downgrade Hurts His Value

Smith was good for both the Seahawks and fantasy teams last year, finishing 12th among QBs in total points. But a downgrade in supporting cast in Vegas leaves him as just a QB2 target in 2025 fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Season Started Hot But Finished Cold

Smith quietly finished 12th in total fantasy points among QBs (with 4-point TD passes) last season. He checked in 14th in points per game.

He racked up a lot of those points early in the season. Smith finished among the top 9 fantasy QBs in four of the first five weeks. He added a QB4 finish in Week 9. After the Week 10 bye, though, his weekly finishes went:

• QB19
• QB20
• QB27
• QB21
• QB30
• QB7
• QB29
• QB5

Seattle’s Passing Aggression Faded

The Seahawks ranked ninth in neutral-situation pass rate for the season, but that changed during the year.

Seattle ranked fourth through Week 9, passing at a 58.1% rate in neutral situations. That dipped to 53.1% after the Week 10 bye, ranking 13th in the league.

Geno Delivered Strikes, But Not Scores

Smith remained an accurate passer in what would be his final Seahawks campaign.

He led all qualifying QBs with an 81.8% on-target pass rate. He ranked fifth in completion rate and eighth in Pro Football Focus’ adjusted completion rate.

The lack of TDs was a bit fluky, with a 3.6% TD rate that ranked 29th among 34 qualifiers. Smith ranked 18th in expected passing TDs, 17th in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line, and 11th in throws into the end zone.

Fantasy Output Had Already Fallen Off

Smith proved accurate over his previous two Seattle starting seasons as well, especially 2022. He led the league in completion rate that season and posted a 5.2% TD rate. That combo propelled a QB7 finish in fantasy points per game.

Smith’s numbers fell off in each of those categories in 2023, when he finished 17th in total fantasy points and just 24th in points per game.

2025 Expectations

Raiders Bet on Geno Without Building Around Him

The Raiders traded a third-round pick for Smith rather than wait to draft a QB, and then gave him a two-year, $75 million contract – with $66.5 million of that guaranteed. He’s the starter for at least this year, and probably 2026 as well.

Smith gets limited help, though. Second-year TE Brock Bowers is obviously a nice piece. But the WR corps is expected to count Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and rookie Jack Bech as the leaders.

Meyers has been a solid player through six NFL seasons but looks better positioned as a complementary No. 2 than a lead wideout. Tucker’s decent but has averaged just 2.0 catches per game through two NFL seasons after averaging 2.2 per game through his college career.

Bech arrived via Round 2 after an up-and-down college career that found him averaging just less than 3 receptions per game overall. He did finish with a strong final season and impressive pre-draft process.

New Coaching Staff Brings Run-Leaning History

Pete Carroll takes over as HC with 18 years experience at the post – 14 of those with the Seahawks.

He pulled Chip Kelly from Ohio State to serve as OC. Kelly spent four previous seasons as an NFL HC: three with the Eagles and 2016 with the 49ers. Those four teams combined for a 43.8% rush rate; 56.2% pass.

Kelly piloted run-heavy offenses in his first Philly season and lone San Francisco campaign. His two other Eagles teams passed more than they ran, despite unspectacular QBs.

Ashton Jeanty

Bottom Line: Jeanty Poised to Deliver Immediate RB1 Value

Jeanty comes off a legendary college season and clearly has heavy usage in his immediate future. You’ll likely need to take him in Round 1 if you want him, but we’re on board with that valuation.

2024 Summary

Ridiculous Production Meets Rare Draft Capital

2,601 yards and 29 TDs.

Jeanty led FBS in yardage and carries (374). He improbably got beat out by Army QB Bryson Daily on rushing TDs.

But Jeanty averaged an absurd 185.8 rushing yards per game and averaged 10.8 yards per catch across 80 receptions for his three-year Boise State career.

His ridiculous production plus the draft capital (sixth overall) renders the rest of his college profile irrelevant. Just know that you’re getting one of the best RB prospects in recent memory.

2025 Expectations

Jeanty Basically Has Backfield to Himself

If the Raiders drafted Jeanty sixth overall to be anything other than a workhorse, then they screwed up.

The rest of the backfield … is not good.

Vegas signed Raheem Mostert in free agency (while letting Alexander Mattison walk). Mostert’s 33 and coming off an 85-carry season with a career-low 3.3 yards per rush. Sincere McCormick and Zamir White round out the group.

Thin Supporting Cast Boosts Touch Outlook

The offense doesn’t present much else to trouble defenses. TE Brock Bowers posted arguably(?) the greatest rookie TE season of all time. WR Jakobi Meyers is underrated – but also not a leading man. And the rest of the group looks unproven at best.

QB Geno Smith arrives as at least the best QB since Derek Carr in 2022. And if he’s better than Carr, Smith would be the team’s best QB since at least the two seasons of Carson Palmer (2011-12).

And that version of Palmer was just OK. If Smith’s better than that, he might be the team’s best QB since Rich Gannon (1999-2003).

Chip Kelly Knows How to Feed a Lead Back

Raiders OC Chip Kelly has served as HC for four previous NFL seasons. Those teams combined for a 43.5% rushing rate.

That run-pass split figures to be directed at least in part by how often the Raiders are trailing, and we’re not betting on them ranking among the league’s top half in wins.

Kelly’s first NFL team – the 2013 Eagles – gave LeSean McCoy a league-leading 314 carries (19.6 per game). McCoy got another 19.5 carries per game the following year (third in the league). And Carlos Hyde ranked 13th in carries per game (16.7) for Kelly’s 2016 Niners.

In short, he has tended to lean on a lead back when he has that guy.

Jakobi Meyers

Bottom Line: Meyers a Potential PPR Cheat Code

Meyers has consistently delivered PPR value at a level beyond where he’s drafted. His early 2025 ADP finds him well into WR4 range, which sets up another such season. Meyers is a strong WR3 for your PPR squad – with WR2 upside.

2024 Summary

Meyers a Weekly Asset, Especially After Trade

Meyers posted a career-high 5.8 receptions per game in 2024, 0.9 higher than his previous best and 1.4 ahead of his first Raiders campaign.

Meyers ranked:

• 20th among WRs in total PPR points
• 24th in points per game
• 24th and 27th in half-PPR
• 32nd and 31st in non-PPR

He finished among the top 30 PPR wideouts eight times in the 12 games he played without Davante Adams, with four of those among the top 20 and two inside the top seven.

Before last season, Meyers finished:

• 28th in PPR points per game in 2023
• 30th in 2022
• 31st in 2021

Adams Trade Made Meyers a Top-15 Target

Meyers played just the first three weeks with Adams last season, drawing a 15.3% target share that ranked 59th among WRs over that span.

Adams then missed two games before getting traded to the Jets. From Week 4 on, Meyers’ 24.5% target share (adjusted for games missed) ranked 12th at the position. He also checked in 13th in air yards share and eighth in rate of being the offense’s first read.

Meyers ranked 13th in expected PPR points per game over that span, 21st in actual points per game, and 43rd in fantasy points per route among WRs with 25+ targets over that span.

Efficiency Proved Merely OK

Meyers gained yards at almost exactly the expected level last season. His 0.1 yards per target over expectation ranked 62nd among 122 WRs with 25+ targets.

Meyers improved his yards per catch from 11.4 in his first Raiders season to 11.8, but that marked just the fourth-best rate among his six pro seasons.

Meyers also halved his TD total from 2023 to 2024, but that looks like a fluke. He actually drew five more end-zone targets last year than he did in 2023.

Bowers Broke Out While QBs Limited Everyone

After Adams left, rookie TE Brock Bowers provided Meyers’ only meaningful target competition last season. Bowers beat Meyers across most categories, en route to setting the NFL record for receptions by a rookie.

Both had to deal with lackluster QB play. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell (plus one game of Desmond Ridder) combined for just 6.6 yards per attempt, a 3.0% TD rate, and a 2.5% INT rate. Meyers ranked just 75th among WRs in share of targets that were catchable.

No Health Issues to Fret Over

Meyers lost two games to an ankle sprain last season but showed no lingering ill effects once he returned. He also sustained concussions in both 2022 and 2023.

Meyers missed two games earlier in 2022 with a knee injury. None of these issues carries relevance for 2025 – except, perhaps, the concussion history.

2025 Expectations

Raiders Add Depth Not Pressure at WR

The Raiders added three rookies to the WR corps:

• second-rounder Jack Bech
• fourth-rounder Dont’e Thornton
• sixth-rounder Tommy Mellott, who’s converting from QB

That’s not much added target competition for 2025. Even Bech posted just one truly impressive college stat line among his four seasons. (And it came in his fourth year.)

Meyers should lead a shallow WR corps again.

QB Play Should Be MUCH Better

The offense got bigger upgrades elsewhere. QB Geno Smith arrives as likely a big improvement over last year’s Minshew-O’Connell tandem – especially in delivering catchable targets to Meyers and the other Raiders pass catchers.

The backfield also got a large talent boost from No. 6 overall pick Ashton Jeanty.

New Coaches Signal Shift Toward Ground Game

Bet on the Raiders running at a higher rate than last year’s mere 35.7%. That team sported a terrible collection of RBs. But there’s also been a coaching turnover.

HC Pete Carroll returned this offseason to take over the Raiders, and he installed Chip Kelly as OC.

Kelly has long been known for his successful run games, especially in college. The four NFL offenses he has piloted to date – 2013-15 Eagles and 2016 49ers — combined to go 43.8% run vs. 56.2% pass. That pass rate would have ranked 20th in the league last season.

The run-pass split figures to draw influence from how competitive the Raiders can be. But this doesn’t look like a roster – or coaching staff – built to lean pass.

Jack Bech

Bottom Line: Bech Too Expensive for His Profile

Bech arrived with good draft capital but an iffy prospect profile. The immediate availability of opportunity helps and makes him fine as a bench stash. But don’t assume too much upside for the rookie.

2024 Summary

Bumpy College Journey Finds Strong Finish

Bech had a somewhat odd run in college.

He started well, with a 43-489-3 true-freshman line that led a star-studded LSU roster in receptions. Bech outperformed future pros Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Trey Palmer, among others.

That dipped to just 16 sophomore-year catches after a coaching change, though. And Bech then endured a quiet 2023 after his transfer to TCU.

He closed out with a strong final line of 62 catches, 1,034 yards, and 9 TDs, leading the Horned Frogs in all three categories. Bech’s 16.7 yards per catch beat his previous high by 4.2.

Positional Versatility Boosts Bech's Potential

Bech worked as a TE-WR combo in his LSU debut. According to Pro Football Focus, he spent:

• 66.3% of his pass snaps in the slot
• 25.1% inline (typically a TE position)
• 8.7% out wide

Bech worked almost exclusively from the slot (95.7%) for his limited second season at LSU, and primarily from that position in his first TCU campaign (75.7%).

He spent 71.8% of his snaps outside last year, though, compared with 26.8% in the slot.

Deeper Targets Fueled Bech Breakout

Bech’s stark increase in yards per catch came primarily thanks to a big shift in average depth of target. His aDOTs by year (according to PFF) went:

• 8.0 in 2021
• 8.9 in 2022
• 8.4 in 2023
• 13.3 in 2024

Bech posted a sparkling 2.9% drop rate for his college career, dropping just four of 200 targets.

Among 260 FBS WRs with 50+ targets in 2024, he ranked:

• 19th in passer rating on throws his way
• 33rd in contested-catch rate
• T-46th in yards per route

Don't Ignore the Injury History

Bech dealt with multiple issues across the past three seasons.

First came a 2022 injury that appears to have gone unspecified but lingered from his LSU time through his first spring at TCU.

A high-ankle sprain in 2023 cost him three games and required tightrope surgery. Bech didn’t show effects from that last season but did end his final year early thanks to a Nov. 30 MCL injury.

He returned from that to take part in the Senior Bowl.

2025 Expectations

Opportunity Awaits -- If He Can Seize It

Check out the Raiders’ target leaders from last season:

• Brock Bowers 153
• Jakobi Meyers 129
• Tre Tucker 81

After that came a pair of RBs in the high 40s, and then TE Michael Mayer, who missed six games with a personal issue.

These Raiders entered the offseason in serious need of WR help. It’s noteworthy, of course, that they chose Bech in Round 2 as the first addition to address that need.

He arrives with a clear path to at least a top-3 spot at WR, with Meyers and Tucker as the other two. Vegas followed Bech by drafting Dont’e Thornton Jr. in Round 4 and Tommy Mellott in Round 6.

Thornton caught just 65 career passes across four seasons split between Oregon and Tennessee. Mellott played QB in college before starting what the Raiders hope will be his Julian Edelman fairy tale.

In short: Bech should find about as much target share available to him as he can prove worthy to receive.

Where Will He Line Up?

This will be the biggest question for Bech. Although he finished his career working primarily outside, his lackluster speed might make Bech a better fit inside in the pros.

The fact that he arrives with experience in both areas opens the possibilities for a Raiders coaching staff that just need to get good players on the field however they can.

Geno Brings Stability to Broken Passing Game

The Geno Smith arrival probably didn’t excite many, but he’s a clear – and probably tremendous – upgrade over the previous QB situation. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell combined to “lead” an offense that ranked 31st in the NFL in PFF passing grade last year (ahead of only the Titans).

Smith’s Seahawks ranked seventh in that category, as well as 11th in 2023 and 12th in 2022 (his previous two starting seasons). Those first two Seattle years, of course, came with Carroll as his HC.

The pass-catching depth remains sparse, although the Raiders probably present more TE talent than any other team in the league. Bowers’ rookie season speaks for itself. Mayer has opened his career quietly but arrived just one pick after Sam LaPorta (35th overall) in 2023.

Ashton Jeanty dramatically upgrades a backfield that still sports modest depth behind him.

Kelly’s Track Record Reveals Hidden Passing Upside

New OC Chip Kelly is typically best known for his teams’ rushing success, but he oversaw solid passing efficiency despite limited QB talent across three years as Eagles HC, 2013 to 2015. 

Kelly’s first season there found LeSean McCoy leading the league in carries and rushing yards per game, but also Nick Foles leading the NFL in TD rate, yards per pass attempt, and passer rating.

His four NFL offenses have combined for a 56.2% passing rate that would have ranked 20th-highest in the league last year.

Brock Bowers

Bottom Line: Draft Cost Spikes Bowers' Risk

The only real question with Bowers in fantasy this year is whether he’s worth the extreme draft cost. That’s difficult to measure ahead of the season. Historically speaking, Bowers’ high ADP makes him a high-risk bet. He’ll need a special season to pay off the investment. That said, he’s a rare player that makes such a season possible.

2024 Summary

Bowers Delivered One of the Best Rookie Years Ever

Perhaps you heard that Bowers had a pretty good first season. Here are the all-time rookie reception leaders:

1. Bowers, 112
2. Malik Nabers, 109
3. Puka Nacua, 105
4. Jaylen Waddle, 104
5. Anquan Boldin, 101

Bowers also delivered the 11th-most receiving yards in a season by a rookie, despite a mere 10.7 yards per catch.

He led all 2024 TEs in total PPR and half-PPR points, ranking second in non-PPR points. Bowers trailed only George Kittle in points per game (plus Taysom Hill in non-PPR).

Bowers Became Focal Point Fast

Bowers fell short of 70% playing time in the first three games of his rookie season – but no more beyond that.

Week 4 marked the first game that WR Davante Adams missed. The Raiders traded him to the Jets before he took the field again.

Week 4 also marked the beginning of TE Michael Mayer’s six-game disappearance from the lineup. From that week on, Bowers ranked 12th in the league – across positions – in target share, edging teammate Jakobi Meyers by 0.1 of a percentage point.

Those Numbers Could've Been Even Bigger

For the year, only Trey McBride accounted for a larger share of his team’s receiving yards among TEs than Bowers.

Among 47 TEs who drew at least 25 targets, Bowers ranked:

• fifth in yards per route
• 21st in yards per target
• 21st in yards after catch per reception
• sixth in TD share
• 10th in end-zone targets (caught one of seven)
• second in first-read rate
• 26th in catchable target rate

What does that all mean? Even though Bowers drew a historic number of targets and caught a historic number of passes, his situation left plenty of fantasy production unclaimed.

No Issues From College Surgery

Bowers needed tightrope surgery after a high-ankle sprain in his final college season. But he returned after only two games and showed no ill effects through his first year in the pros.

Bowers also remained durable through that rookie season, despite hurting a foot in August. That issue caused no missed time.

2025 Expectations

Don't Worry Unless Mayer Forces It

Perhaps a full season of Mayer challenges Bowers’ target share a bit more. But the rookie ranked second in target share at the position last year from Week 11 on, the span that started with Mayer’s return from his personal time away.

Bowers also ranked second at the position in air-yards share and tied for second in actual yardage share. So Mayer will need to prove that he’s a threat before we’re downgrading the rookie-year record-setter.

Otherwise, the offense presents little target competition. Jakobi Meyers returns to lead WRs. Second-round rookie Jack Bech was the group’s lead addition, and the Raiders added little behind him.

Smith's Accuracy a Huge Addition

Remember the unfulfilled 2024 fantasy production mentioned above? Bowers could have scored even better with more accurate quarterbacking. And the Raiders clearly targeted such an upgrade.

They traded a Round 3 pick for QB Geno Smith. Among 64 QBs with at least 200 pass attempts over the past three seasons, Smith’s 68.5% completion rate ranks fifth – less than a half-point behind Joe Burrow.

Here’s how Smith ranked the past three years in Fantasy Points Data’s catchable throw rate:

• fifth in 2024
• 30th in 2023
• fifth in 2022

TEs Have Eaten in Kelly’s Offenses Before

New OC Chip Kelly is best known for his offenses’ rushing success. But his system proved helpful to TE scoring over his three years as Philly HC, 2013 to 2015.

Those three teams finished 10th, eighth, and seventh in total TE PPR points, with a young Zach Ertz arriving via Round 2 and working into an offense that still included Brent Celek.

Perhaps we should even count Kelly’s 2016 Niners ranking 17th in TE scoring as a success, given that Garrett Celek led that group and ranked third on the team in targets and receptions.

Either way, it doesn’t take an offensive genius to recognize that Bowers should keep getting the ball.

How Do Raiders Fit in the Rankings?

Does Ashton Jeanty make sense as a draft target? Brock Bowers? Only one way to find out.

Check the fantasy football rankings for your format now to see if we like him as much as you do.

The video below finds Jared and Matt digging into Bowers' draft value and more about the TE rankings ...

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