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Philly's Offense Can't Do All the Same Things in 2025 ... Can It?

Philadelphia Eagles 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• OC Kevin Patullo promoted from pass-game coordinator/associate HC after Kellen Moore left for New Orleans

Jalen Hurts

Bottom Line: Hurts Remains a High-end QB1

At 27, Hurts should remain a highly effective rushing QB. His ground game production continues to supply a top-tier fantasy ceiling.

2024 Summary

Hurts Overcomes Poor Passing Stats

In 14 full games, Hurts averaged 206.5 passing yards and almost 1.3 passing TDs per game. He averaged 42.2 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD per game.

The rushing production fueled seven top-5 fantasy finishes and four others inside the top-12.

Overall, Hurts ranked ninth in total fantasy points, rising to fifth in points per game.

Low Pass Volume? No Problem

Hurts averaged only 25.5 passes per game. His rushing production was on the other end of the spectrum at 10.5 attempts per game.

Hurts was especially busy near the goal line. He tied for the second-most carries inside the five-yard line with 18, per Pro Football Reference. He carried 28 times inside the 10.

Hurts' Efficiency Metrics Improved ... When He Dodged Sacks

Including the postseason, Hurts set career highs in:

• Completion rate (68.7%)
• Adjusted completion rate (80.4%)
• Yards per attempt (8.0)
• TD rate (5.0%)

However, his Pro Football Focus passing grade (71.0) marked a clear step down from 2022 (83.8) and 2023 (83.9). Hurts also took a career-high 51 sacks (postseason included), adding a career-high 22.9% pressure-to-sack rate.

Hurts Excelled When His Guys Were Healthy

Hurts picked up a new system under OC Kellen Moore. His unit ranked third in plays per game but 31st or 32nd in:

• Pass rate
• Neutral pass ate
• Pass rate over expected
• Red zone pass rate
• Red zone pass rate over expected

We also saw missed time from A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.

In four full games with that trio, Hurts notched a strong 9.0 yards per attempt and a 5.6% TD rate.

In his 10 other games: 7.7 yards per attempt and a 4.8% TD rate.

The Best Goal Line Back in the League?

Hurts has now hit double-digit rushing TDs in all four starting seasons.

He's totaled 52 rushing TDs over that stretch, including 33(!) from the one-yard line.

Injury History Gains Two New Entries

Hurts missed two late-season games with a concussion. He returned for the postseason, when he sustained a knee injury that required the use of a brace.

Hurts suffered a dislocated right middle finger in Week 18 of the 2023 season. He returned for the postseason.

2025 Expectations

Philly's Personnel Look Almost Exactly the Same

Hurts’ top-5 target earners return for 2025: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Saquon Barkley, and Jahan Dotson. It’s one of the best groups of pass catchers in the NFL.

Philadelphia also returns four of five starting linemen, as G Mekhi Becton signed with the Chargers in free agency. 25-year-old Tyler Steen – formerly a Round 3 pick – is the favorite to fill in.

Overall, this unit continues to project as one of the best league-wide.

Hurts Encounters Another Change at OC

OC Kellen Moore was replaced with Eagles pass-game coordinator (2021-2024) Kevin Patullo. He added associate HC duties from 2023-2024.

Now, Patullo hasn’t called plays at any level. But he’s widely expected to keep Philly’s run-centered attack in place.

One more thing to keep in mind: Dating back to college, Hurts is on his 12th play-caller in ten seasons. It’s a huge challenge for any QB to endure.

History Says Hurts Likely Near His Peak

Our historical aging curves show that, on average, rushing QBs peak at age 26 and perform at 95% of their peak at 27.

Hurts, who enters his sixth season, turns 27 in August. Age is ultimately no cause for concern here.

Saquon Barkley

Bottom Line: Expect Another Top-Tier Fantasy Season

Barkley’s likely to experience some regression following a historic 2024 season. But he ultimately returns to the same role and environment that keep his fantasy ceiling elite.

2024 Summary

Barkley Nearly Made History

Barkley led the NFL in rushing yards (2,005) and rushing yards per game (125.3). He became the first RB with 2,000 yards since Derrick Henry in 2020.

Only nine RBs have hit the 2K mark all-time.

As a receiver, Barkley wasn't a prolific producer. But he still added value with 33 catches, 278 yards, and two scores.

The fantasy superstar finished RB1 in PPR points per game and RB2 in total fantasy points.

A Stunning Workload ... and Serious Goal-Line Competition

Barkley’s 345 carries led the NFL by 20. And that was with the Eagle resting for Week 18.

He carried 20+ times in ten of 16 games, including in eight of his final ten regular season games. He peaked with a 31-carry effort vs. Dallas in Week 17.

Barkley’s 74% carry share ranked third among RBs. It would have ranked higher had he not played alongside an elite short-yardage QB in Jalen Hurts.

Note: Hurts accounted for a stunning 18 carries inside the five-yard line. He scored 11 TDs from that range.

Now, Barkley still posted a top-ten carry number inside the ten (13 attempts). Still, there’s no doubt Philly’s preference for the “tush push” limited Barkley’s TD output.

As a receiver, Barkley managed a 10.8% target share. That ranked 19th among RBs.

Efficiency Metrics Show No Performance Dip

Barkley recorded a sterling 5.8 yards per carry. That ranked seventh best among RBs with 200+ carries since the 1970 merger.

Barkley led all 47 qualifying RBs with 3.8 yards before contact per attempt, a nod to Philly’s O-line and his big-play ability.

He also ranked:

• 17th in yards after contact per attempt
• second in rush yards over expected per attempt
• 11th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade

Each mark either matched or exceeded his figures from past years, so there’s nothing concerning in Barkley’s efficiency metrics.

Move to Philly Marked a MAJOR Upgrade

Philly’s offense was built for Barkley to succeed.

OC Kellen Moore’s unit ranked bottom two in:

• Pass rate
• Neutral pass rate
• Pass rate over expected
• Red zone pass rate
• Red zone pass rate over expected

A strong O-line and a talented WR duo also helped Barkley rip off gains.

Per PFF, he posted a Breakaway Percentage of 41.6%, his highest since 2018. Breakaway Percentage isolates the number of yards gained on rushes of 15+ and then divides them by the player’s total rushing yards.

Don't Expect His Receiving Numbers to Rebound

Barkley’s reached at least ten total TDs in three straight seasons.

However, his targets, catches, and receiving yards per game have dipped in back to back seasons:

A major turnaround looks unlikely, as Philly prioritizes Barkley’s rushing.

An Injury-Free 2024

Barkley proved remarkably durable in 2024, despite racking up 436 carries (including postseason).

In 2023, Barkley suffered a hyperextended elbow and an ankle sprain. Only the ankle cost him time (three games).

2025 Expectations

Barkley Returns to the Same High-Volume Role

Don’t expect much change in usage.

Backup RB Kenneth Gainwell signed with Pittsburgh in free agency. He averaged just 4.26 carries in shared games with Barkley last season.

Will Shipley returns after a quiet rookie season. Philly also added veteran RB A.J. Dillon, who missed all of last season with a neck injury.

Keep an Eye on This O-Line Spot

The Eagles return four of five starting linemen, as G Mekhi Becton signed with the Chargers in free agency. 25-year-old Tyler Steen -- formerly a Round 3 pick -- is the favorite to fill in.

It has the potential to be a significant loss. Becton ranked 11th among 29 guards with 400+ run-blocking snaps in PFF run blocking grade. Steen ranked 61st among 64 guards in the same metric (min. 200 run blocking snaps).

We'll see how the position settles out this summer.

The Eagles return QB Jalen Hurts, WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and TE Dallas Goedert. Their overall talent helps boost Barkley’s fantasy outlook.

New OC Expected to Retain Same Approach

OC Kellen Moore was replaced with Eagles pass-game coordinator (2021-2024) Kevin Patullo. He added associate HC duties from 2023-2024.

Now, Patullo hasn’t called plays at any level. But he’s widely expected to keep Philly’s run-centered attack in place.

Expect Only Marginal Regression

Our historical aging curves show that, on average, high-end RBs perform at 88% of their peak at age 28. The biggest decline in production comes from age 28 to age 29 (when the dip hits 71%).

We’ll keep a close eye on any nagging or lingering injuries in training camp. Barkley, though, is positioned to remain an outlier.

A.J. Brown

Bottom Line: Treat Brown as a Mid-Tier WR1

Brown finished WR7 in PPR points per game in 2023; WR11 in 2024. At 28 years old, he retains a top-12 fantasy outlook as Philly’s go-to target.

2024 Summary

Another Top-12 Fantasy Season

Brown tallied 67 catches, 1,079 yards, and seven TDs across 13 games.

In two games without WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring), Brown recorded lines of:

• 6-109-1 (at Rams)
• 5-66-0 (at Ravens)

On the year, Brown recorded six top-ten fantasy finishes. He finished worse than WR36 only once.

The former Titan ranked 19th in total PPR points and 11th in points per game.

Only One WR Topped Him in Target Share

Per Pro Football Focus, Brown played 82.8% of his passing snaps out wide, up from 2022 and 2023 (74.1% and 75.8%, respectively).

Brown's average depth of target (12.8 yards) remained steady, though. And his target share remained healthy. Brown drew a robust 31.4% share in 13 games. Only Malik Nabers (35.3%) posted a higher mark.

Was 2024 Brown's Best Season Yet?

Brown set career highs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade, yards per route run, and ESPN Receiver Score. Among 51 WRs with 80+ targets, he ranked top three in each metric.

Brown added an 18th-place finish in yards after catch per reception. He also proved reliable with a low 2.5% drop rate -- and a high 59.4% contested catch rate.

Brown Overcomes Low Pass Volume

Brown signed a three-year contract extension in April of 2024.

He continued to hold the No. 1 WR role under first-year OC Kellen Moore, who orchestrated a run-heavy attack. The ‘24 Eagles ranked bottom two in:

• Pass rate
• Neutral pass rate
• Pass rate over expected
• Red zone pass rate
• Red zone pass rate over expected

Consistently Among the NFL's Most Productive WRs

Brown has now hit 1,000+ yards and 7+ TDs in five of six pro seasons.

He's recorded lines of 88-1,496-11, 106-1,456-7, and 67-1,079-7 in three seasons with Philadelphia.

Injuries Interrupted for First Time in a While

Brown sustained a hamstring strain in practice ahead of Week 2. He missed three games around a Week 5 bye.

Brown left in the third quarter of Week 9 with a knee injury, but an MRI turned up nothing of concern. He didn’t miss another game until Week 18, when he was listed with “knee/rest” on the injury report. Philly couldn’t improve their playoff seeding, so this was purely a rest situation.

Brown played all 17 games in 2022 and 2023, his first two seasons with the Eagles.

2025 Expectations

Brown Remains the Alpha 

Brown’s No. 1 WR status remains in place.

Last year, he topped DeVonta Smith in targets per game (7.5 to 6.8) and yards per game (83 to 64). Smith matched Brown with 13 games played.

TE Dallas Goedert returns to handle a secondary receiving role.

Will the Play Calling Help Him More?

Philadelphia has ranked among the league's most run-leaning offenses since HC Nick Sirianni arrived in 2021. But last year's run-pass split proved the most drastic to date.

The Eagles' 55.7% run rate rose 4.5 percentage points higher than Sirianni's previous Philly high (51.2% in 2021). It also beat No. 2 Baltimore by 3.2 percentage points for 2024.

Sirianni's first three years found these passing shares:

• 48.8%
• 51.6%
• 54.1%

RB Saquon Barkley's arrival obviously factored in, as did the team success:

• 14-3 regular-season record
• 27.2 points per game vs. just 17.8 points allowed per game

Philly remains clearly built to run, including Jalen Hurts' ability to turn many dropbacks into run plays. But the team's not likely to run quite as much as it did last year, especially if Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert can combine for better health. Each guy missed at least four games in 2024.

Any increase in passing volume would obviously help the Eagles' lead WR\

Will the OC Switch Change Anything?

Kellen Moore took the HC job in New Orleans after one season as Philadelphia’s play-caller.

In steps Kevin Patullo. He has served as Eagles pass-game coordinator since 2021. Patullo spent three years with Sirianni on the Colts' staff before that: two as WRs coach and one as pass-game specialist.

The continuity should help, and we don’t expect a drastic shift from their run-heavy, Super Bowl-winning formula. Patullo's passing lean to date, though, could enhance the Eagles' passing production vs. last year's squad.

DeVonta Smith

Bottom Line: Smith Remains a Solid WR2

Smith delivered a career-high 15.3 PPR points per game in 2024, but consistency was an issue. Expect more of the same in 2025 as Philadelphia retains a run-heavy approach. The fifth-year pro is a borderline WR2.

2024 Summary

TDs Help Smith Deliver as a Fantasy Asset

Smith totaled 68 catches, 833 yards, and eight TDs across 13 games. That’s 5.2 catches, 64.0 yards, and .61 TDs per matchup.

He set a career high in TDs while recording a career low in yards.

Smith finished as a top-25 WR in nine games. Three of those were top-8 finishes.

Smith’s success as a TD scorer helped him finish 17th in PPR points per game, despite ranking 40th among WRs in expected points per game. His 15.3 PPR points per game narrowly marked a career high.

A Healthy Target Share, Even With a Healthy A.J. Brown

Smith handled a 26.5% target share across all of his games. Interestingly, that number dropped only slightly (25.7%) in 11 games alongside A.J. Brown.

Smith saw a 21.3% target share with Brown in 2023; 25.4% in 2022.

In 2024, Smith played 55.7% of his passing snaps in the slot — well above his prior career high (31.1%, 2023). The boosted slot role contributed to a career-low average depth of target (9.7 yards).

Smith capitalized on extra red zone opportunities, where he recorded six TDs. He led all Eagles in red zone target share (20.4%).

Smith's Efficiency Metrics Reached New Levels

Among 51 WRs with 80+ targets last year, Smith ranked:

• first in catch rate
• 15th in drop rate
• 16th in PFF receiving grade
• 20th in yards per route run
• 29th in yards per catch

Smith set career highs in catch rate, yards per route run, and PFF receiving grade.

He also ranked seventh in ESPN’s Overall Receiver Score, which looks at a receiver's ability to get open, make catches, and generate yards after the catch.

He Overcame Low Pass Volume

Smith signed a three-year extension in April 2024.

His productive season came despite the Eagles ranking bottom-2 in:

• Pass rate
• Neutral pass rate
• Pass rate over expected
• Red zone pass rate
• Red zone pass rate over expected

Injuries Finally Got Him

Smith missed only one NFL game entering last season. But in 2024, he missed one game with a concussion and two with a hamstring injury.

The 170-pounder also showed up on the injury report with back and wrist ailments.

2025 Expectations

No Change in Role

Smith returns to his No. 2 role alongside A.J. Brown.

TE Dallas Goedert also returns after an offseason of trade speculation.

The Eagles didn’t upgrade the No. 3 WR spot, as they’ll look for improvement from former Round 1 pick Jahan Dotson. Of course, Saquon Barkley returns to execute a run-first offense.

Will Philly Take More Deep Shots in '25?

Smith will look for more consistent play from Jalen Hurts. His 71.0 PFF passing grade marked a sharp decline from the previous two seasons.

Hurts also wasn’t one to push the ball downfield with a deep ball rate of 11.1%. That ranked 26th among 46 qualifying QBs. Meanwhile, 14.3% of Smith’s targets came on deep balls, 56th among 72 qualifying WRs.

That marked a career low to date for Smith, despite Hurts' deep-ball rate sitting close to his previous seasons. Smith's previous deep rates reveal potential upside in that area:

• 2021: 30.9%
• 2022: 16.2%
• 2023: 20.2%

New OC, Old Approach?

Kellen Moore took the HC job in New Orleans following one season as Philadelphia’s play-caller.

In steps Kevin Patullo, who has served as Eagles pass-game coordinator since 2021. Patullo also spent three years with Sirianni on the Colts' staff before that: two as WRs coach and one as pass-game specialist.

The continuity should help, and we don’t expect a drastic shift from last year's run-heavy, Super Bowl-winning formula. Patullo's passing background could enhance the Eagles' passing production, though.

Dallas Goedert

Bottom Line: Fantasy Spot Starter When Healthy

Goedert’s injury history signals risk, but he still performed as a fringe TE1 when healthy in 2024. Expect a similar output for what’s likely his final season in Philadelphia.

2024 Summary

If You Blinked, You Missed Goedert's Ceiling

Goedert played a career-low 10 games last year. So it's no surprise that his total production underwhelmed:

• 42 catches
• 496 yards
• 2 TDs

His 10.4 PPR points per game lined up with his recent seasons. It also ranked 10th among TEs, just behind Sam LaPorta.

Goedert rarely flashed a high-end ceiling, with only one weekly finish inside the top-8 (TE1, Week 3). A.J. Brown missed that game, and DeVonta Smith left early with a concussion.

His Volume Rose ... But With a Caveat

Goedert saw a solid 20.2% target share in his eight full games. Compare that to his mark of 18.8% in 2023.

He peaked with target shares of 31% (Week 3), 29% (Week 4), 28% (Week 12), and 27% (Week 13). Each game found the Eagles without at least one of Brown or Smith.

Underlying Metrics Suggest Goedert Quietly Performed Well

Goedert set a career high in targets per route run (22.7%). He finished with his second-best yards per route run (2.20).

He also slotted third among 43 qualifying TEs in ESPN’s Receiver Score. He ranked top-14 in each subcategory (Open Score, Catch Score, Yards After Catch Score).

A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith Overshadowed TE

Philly’s offense certainly didn’t present extra opportunities.

OC Kellen Moore’s unit ranked bottom two in:

• Pass rate
• Neutral pass rate
• Pass rate over expected
• Red zone pass rate
• Red zone pass rate over expected

More Injuries Popped Up in 2024

Durability remained an issue for Goedert last year.

He missed three games with a hamstring injury and four others with a knee. Back in August, he missed practice time with an oblique injury.

The veteran was the subject of offseason trade talk. Ultimately, he took a pay cut to remain in Philly.

2025 Expectations

Eagles Add Insurance, But No Serious Competition

The Eagles added TEs Kylen Granson and Harrison Bryant in free agency. Neither guy is a lock to make the team, though. For now, expect Grant Calcaterra to hold the backup role behind Goedert.

The return of Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith put a cap on Goedert’s role. Our projections have the TE for five targets per game.

WANTED: More Pass Volume

The Eagles finished last in pass rate and pass rate over expected last season. Saquon Barkley's arrival obviously factored in. So did the success of a team that won 14 regular-season games and outscored opponents by nearly 10 points per game.

But this perennially run-leaning offense went extreme with the run-pass split last year. The 55.7% run rate rose 4.5 percentage points higher than HC Nick Sirianni's previous Philly high (51.2% in 2021). It also beat No. 2 Baltimore by 3.2 percentage points for 2024.

Sirianni's first three years found these passing shares:

• 48.8%
• 51.6%
• 54.1%

Expect more passing in 2025 than in 2024, even though we expect this to remain one of the league's most run-heavy offenses.

An OC switch could factor into that run-pass split. But Kevin Patullo -- who took over after Kellen Moore left for New Orleans -- has been on the Philadelphia staff since Sirianni arrived. Patullo also spent three years under Sirianni with the Colts before that.

So don't expect any significant shift in offensive philosophy this season.

What About the Other 31 Teams?

Check the fantasy football rankings for your format now to see where the value lies.

And for a deeper dive on the NFC East, check out this recent podcast with our own Matt Schauf and Jared Smola:

Next Up

Why Cincinnati Might Be Fantasy Football’s Most Valuable Offense

Next Article  

Kevin English, Senior Analyst

Kevin brings 15+ years of experience as a fantasy analyst and mid-stakes competitor across various formats (redraft, best ball, dynasty, DFS). He finished 1st in FantasyPros Draft Accuracy competition in 2024. Kevin's work has been featured on The Mercury News, NBC Sports/Rotoworld, and FantasyPros.