Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Buy/Sell/Hold Report #4

BUY Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Three weeks ago, Kamara was sittin’ pretty. Even without scoring TDs for 2 weeks (or in any game outside of Seattle, for that matter), he tallied 6 receptions and 104 total yards in the easy win over Tampa. Kamara ranked top-8 among PPR backs.

Then came a rough 66 total yards in the win at Jacksonville, where Kamara entered on a questionable ankle and left with a knee issue as well. He has missed the past 2 contests, allowing Latavius Murray to rack up 150+ total yards and 2 TDs for 2 straight weeks. And that’s part of why it’s a good time to check in on Kamara’s price.

Each of Murray’s past 2 games delivered 33 more rushing yards than any outing Kamara’s had since Week 1. Does that mean New Orleans had been feeding the wrong back? Nah. Murray has made the most of 27 and 21 carries the past 2 weeks, as well as 6 and 12 targets. But Kamara’s the #1 when he’s healthy. That’s why Murray never topped 8 carries or 3 targets in any of Kamara’s 6 active games, and Murray’s high in opportunities came in that aforementioned Jacksonville game.

Kamara turned up initially questionable for Sunday’s win over the Cardinals and is expected back for Week 10. When he returns, he’s the backfield leader in New Orleans. And he’ll return to find an offense with Drew Brees at the helm.

The remaining schedule looks negative by our strength-of-schedule formula, but Kamara’s receiving role makes him basically matchup proof.

BUY Mike Williams, WR, Chargers

Over the past 4 weeks, only 9 WRs have seen more targets than Williams’ 35. His 507 air yards during that stretch lead the entire league. Yet Williams ranks just 27th at his position in PPR points since Week 5.

In other words, he’s seen WR1 usage but produced as just a WR3.

Are we predicting WR1 production the rest of the way? Nah. But look for that gap between usage and production to close.

Especially considering Williams is in for some big-time positive TD regression. He’s still yet to hit pay dirt this season, despite sitting 27th among WRs in targets, 46th in catches and 30th in yards.

Williams joins Robert Woods, Jarvis Landry and Jamison Crowder as the only WRs with 50+ targets and 0 TDs. Woods, Landry and Crowder aren’t exactly known as elite scorers. Williams, on the other hand, is coming off a 10-TD season and popped in 11 scores in his final year at Clemson.

The Chargers still have a bye coming in Week 12. But the rest of the schedule looks fine, including 2 games against the Raiders’ 28th-ranked WR defense.

BUY Robby Anderson, WR, Jets

Anderson’s certainly happy to have Sam Darnold back.

In 4 games with him this season, the speedy WR has notched 29 targets. In 3 with Jets backups, Anderson managed only 14.

Anderson’s current numbers (21-309-1) are also skewed by 2 matchups with the Patriots’ shutdown defense. Those contests produced totals of 4 catches for 21 yards. Ugly.

The future looks much brighter, however. Jets WRs will enjoy the league’s 2nd most favorable WR schedule the rest of the way, per our SOS page. The next 8 weeks include a pair of games against a Miami secondary without Xavien Howard (IR, knee), plus others against the Giants and Raiders.

Anderson’s usage remains encouraging, too. He’s seen an average depth of target of nearly 16.0 yards alongside Sam Darnold. Overall, Anderson ranks 16th among WRs in air yards over the last 4 weeks.

With his bye behind him, the 26-year-old looks like a good bet for some spike weeks going forward.

BUY Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons

Ridley was just decent in Week 8 — 4 catches for 70 yards — and now has a Week 9 bye. That presents a buying opportunity ahead of what could be a big 2nd half.

Ridley has already seen a volume boost this year, from 5.8 targets per game in 2018 to 6.4. His target share has actually held steady at 15%, though.

That should get a nice boost the rest of the way with Mohamed Sanu gone. Sanu averaged 6 targets over the first 7 weeks, garnering 14% of Atlanta’s targets. A good chunk of that should head Ridley’s way now.

It’s worth noting that the Falcons have the 7th toughest remaining WR schedule, including 2 games against the Saints and 1 against the ‘Niners. But Ridley will continue to benefit from opposing defenses keying on Julio Jones.

SELL Jared Goff, QB, Rams

Goff did exactly what he was supposed to do the past 2 weeks: Put up big numbers against bad defenses. He posted a 268-2-0 passing line vs. the Falcons’ 28th-ranked QB defense and a 372-2-0 vs. the Bengals’ 27th-ranked unit.

That’s boosted him to 13th among QBs in fantasy points. But let’s not forget that Goff was struggling through 6 weeks, tossing just 7 TDs with 7 INTs. He sat 19th at his position in fantasy scoring at that point.

Goff has a Week 9 bye and doesn’t get to face the Falcons or Bengals the rest of the way. In fact, he has just 1 game left against a bottom-12 QB defense (Cardinals in Week 13). He has 4 remaining games against top 7 units. Overall, it’s the 6th toughest remaining QB schedule.

Throw in a potentially lengthy absence for Brandin Cooks, and it’s tough to feel good about Goff as a QB1 going forward. Consider moving him now for a starter at another position and just streaming at QB the rest of the way.

SELL Mark Ingram, RB, Ravens

Ingram heads into Week 9 ranked 14th in PPR points per game, 9th in that category in non-PPR. How? Touchdowns.

Only 4 RBs have delivered a higher rushing-TD rate so far, and none of the 4 has carried more than 27 times. Ingram has carried 99 times, 17th most at the position and 14th in carries per game. Yet he ranks 4th in rushing TDs and 3rd in TDs per game.

According to NFL Savant, Ingram has tied for the 10th most red-zone carries so far. Only 2 RBs have scored more rushing TDs in that range, though. Can he keep that up? It’ll be tough.

And it complicates Ingram’s outlook that he gets just 1 positive RB-scoring matchup between now and Week 14. This Sunday brings a big challenge in the Patriots, and a daunting clash with the 49ers lies ahead in Week 13.

HOLD Le’Veon Bell, RB, Jets

We mentioned Bell at the top of the last Buy/Sell/Hold Report … and he hasn’t helped his fantasy owners a whole lot since.

We knew the New England matchup would be tough in Week 7. Bell actually didn’t fare terribly there, rushing for a season-high 4.7 yards per carry and collecting 19 total opportunities (carries + targets). He followed with a terrible 35 total yards against a vulnerable Jacksonville defense, drawing a disappointing 9 carries. That fell 5 short of his previous season low.

Bell has caught just 5 passes in 3 games since QB Sam Darnold returned from mono, after snagging 27 balls over the season’s first 4 weeks. Just as worrisome, his offense has managed only 15 points in 2 games since upsetting Dallas in Darnold’s return.

But you can’t quit on Bell now. The Jets are just hitting the league’s best remaining schedule. That starts with a Week 9 trip to Miami, and it doesn’t find a significantly negative matchup for RB scoring until Week 16 against the Steelers.

HOLD David Montgomery, RB, Bears

You’re disappointed in Montgomery’s to-date production, no question. The rookie sits just 33rd in PPR points.

But even after a 27-carry, 135-yard outing vs. the Chargers — a healthy workload foreshadowed by HC Matt Nagy — this doesn’t seem like the time to sell.

Sure, this week brings a brutal road matchup at Philly. But look beyond that and see 6 favorable opponents over his final 7 outings. The last 4 are particularly enticing: Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City. Also note that the Bears already went on a bye. That time off is critical to consider in any deal with the fantasy playoffs within sight.

Now, we can’t expect ~30 touches per game going forward. Strategically, though, the Bears would be foolish to get away from Montgomery. Mitchell Trubisky is one of Pro Football Focus’ lowest graded passers (47.4), putting him in the company of names like Mason Rudolph and Trevor Siemian.

Unless you’re stacked at RB, keep Montgomery for the stretch run.

Alex Korff, Product Manager

Alex is an engineer by trade and focuses a lot on the game theory and the “value” of players. He spends most of his time in spreadsheets and building new fantasy football tools.