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Why Cincinnati Might Be Fantasy Football’s Most Valuable Offense

Cincinnati Bengals 2025 Overview

Schedule

Wins

Play Calling

Notable Coaching Changes

• None

Joe Burrow

Bottom Line: QB1 Overall Upside

Burrow delivered a monster 2024 season, setting career highs across the board and finishing as the QB2 in fantasy. With elite volume, accuracy, and red-zone usage, he’s a locked-in top-tier QB heading into 2025.

2024 Summary

Burrow Delivered Consistent QB1 Production

Burrow finished second among QBs in both total fantasy points (450) and points per game (26.5), trailing only Lamar Jackson.

He led the NFL in passing yards (4,918) and passing TDs (43), adding 201 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. 

He delivered 12 top-12 finishes, including three QB1 overall weeks, cementing himself as a consistent weekly difference-maker.

Bengals Put the Ball in Burrow’s Hands

Burrow continued to operate as a high-volume pocket passer, attempting the most passes in the NFL at 652 while adding value with modest rushing production. 

He benefited from a Bengals offense that ranked second in pass rate and first in neutral pass rate, feeding him elite weekly opportunity. 

His red-zone usage was unmatched, leading the NFL in:

• expected passing TDs
• end-zone throws
• and inside-the-10 pass attempts

Burrow Balances Volume with Efficiency

 Burrow’s efficiency hit new heights in 2024:

• 91.4 PFF passing grade (2nd among QBs with 300+ dropbacks)
• 78.1% adjusted completion rate (10th)
• 2.1% turnover-worthy throw rate (6th)
• 5.5% big-time throw rate (6th)
• 2nd in completion rate over expected

Quick Trigger Offsets Weak Line

Despite a league-worst ESPN pass blocking success rate (50%), Burrow thrived in a fast-paced, pass-heavy environment. 

Cincinnati finished sixth in points and 22nd in pace, leaning heavily on Burrow’s processing and quick release (2.71 seconds to throw, 10th fastest). 

The emergence of RB Chase Brown gave more balance, but the offense still ran through Burrow and the passing game.

Result: QB's Biggest Numbers to Date

2024 marked Burrow’s best NFL season, setting personal records in yards, TDs, completion rate, adjusted completion rate, TD rate, and QBR. 

When WR Tee Higgins was in the lineup, Burrow averaged 31.5 more passing yards and 0.18 passing TDs per game, despite attempting fewer passes per game.

Wrist Worries Now in the Rearview

Burrow missed seven games in 2023 after having surgery on his right wrist. 

There were questions early in the 2024 season about whether it was affecting Burrow’s play, but he was certainly up to full strength quickly.

Burrow stayed healthy for the entire 2024 season and enters 2025 without any injury questions.

2025 Expectations

Burrow Remains Franchise and Fantasy Anchor 

Burrow is the unquestioned franchise QB and fantasy anchor. 

With Cincinnati maintaining a pass-first identity, he’s again in position to lead the league in passing volume and red-zone chances. 

Jake Browning and Logan Woodside round out the Bengals’ QB room.

Chase, Higgins Lead Familiar Arsenal

Burrow returns WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, both of whom are locked in for the foreseeable future.

WRs Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton will battle for the third WR role with hope that both can continue to develop. 

Mike Gesicki returns as the starting TE.

RB Chase Brown showed that he could handle a full workload, but Zack Moss will also return after his neck injury. The Bengals also brought back Samaje Perine and drafted Tahj Brooks in the sixth round.

The offensive line remains a concern, but the Bengals bring back their starting five from last season, including LT Orlando Brown Jr. and second-year RT Amarius Mims. Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, and Cody Ford complete the interior.

Pass-First Philosophy Keeps Burrow Thriving

HC Zac Taylor’s offense remains one of the most aggressive in the NFL, finishing top-two in pass rate for the third straight season and first in neutral pass rate.

That playcalling supports Burrow’s elite floor and ceiling. Expect similar volume in 2025, regardless of minor personnel shifts.

No Signs of Burrow Slowing Down

Burrow’s trendline is firmly pointed up. He led the league in expected fantasy points per game and delivered elite output both with and without Tee Higgins. 

His TD rate (6.8% with Higgins, 6.1% without) and consistent accuracy prove he’s matchup-proof. 

Chase Brown

Bottom Line: Brown Presents RB1 Upside Again

Brown turned in a strong sophomore breakout, finishing as a top-10 PPR fantasy RB in total points and showcasing every-down ability when Zack Moss was out. He enters 2025 with clear lead-back upside in one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses.

2024 Summary

Brown Delivered RB2 Numbers with RB1 Weeks

Brown compiled 990 total yards and seven TDs over 16 games, finishing RB10 in total PPR fantasy points (255) and RB14 in points per game (15.9). 

He posted eight top-12 weekly finishes, emerging as a high-floor RB2 with spike-week upside, especially late in the season after Zack Moss’s injury.

He never finished worse than RB22 in any game with Moss on the sideline.

Moss Injury Vaulted Brown's Usage

Brown operated in a split backfield for much of the year but took over down the stretch.

In 8 games without Moss, Brown averaged 18.9 carries and 5.5 targets per game. He was RB1 in expected PPR points per game and RB4 in actual points per game during that stretch.

His numbers dropped with Moss. In the final 5 games with Moss active, Brown averaged 12.8 carries and 3.0 targets per game, scoring as the RB22 in points per game.

Brown handled 50% of Cincinnati’s inside-the-five carries and ran a near-even mix of zone (128) and gap (95) plays, showcasing versatility in run concepts and reliability in the red zone.

Top-Tier Receiving Back Adds Juice After Contact

Brown was solid across the board in advanced metrics:

• 4.3 yards per carry (t-23rd among RBs with 75+ carries)
• 3.08 yards after contact per attempt (22nd)
• 0.3 rush yards over expected per attempt (21st)
• 67.5 Elusive Rating (22nd)

In the passing game, he also stood out:

• 54 receptions (5th among RBs)
• 76.8 PFF receiving grade (6th)
• 1.06 yards per route and a top-15 pass-blocking grade (62.3)

His breakaway run rate dropped from 9.1% in 2023 to 4.4% in 2024, but he remained effective after contact and dependable in high-leverage situations.

Pass-Heavy Scheme, RB-Friendly Opportunities

Cincinnati ranked second in pass rate and first in neutral pass rate under HC Zac Taylor, with a heavy lean on Joe Burrow and the short passing game. 

That high-volume, high-tempo approach (sixth in total plays) opened up consistent receiving opportunities for Brown, especially after Moss went down. 

The offensive line remained a liability, ranking 30th in run-blocking success rate, making Brown’s production even more impressive.

Brown Held Up Amid Heavier Load

Brown played 16 games in 2024, showing durability throughout his first season in a lead role. 

He did suffer a high-ankle sprain in Week 17 which caused him to miss Week 18. But there are no significant injury concerns heading into 2025.

2025 Expectations

Bengals’ Backfield Belongs to Brown

Brown is the clear favorite to open 2025 as Cincinnati’s No. 1 RB. 

Even with Zack Moss returning from injury, Brown did enough in 2024 to establish himself as the primary RB.

The team also failed to address RB early in the NFL Draft. 

They did bring in Samaje Perine in free agency and took Tahj Brooks in the sixth round.

Despite the RB room growing, Brown’s role as the lead back is unlikely to be threatened.

Room to Run with Burrow Behind Center

Brown benefits from playing alongside Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and one of the NFL’s most productive passing attacks. 

The offensive line remains a concern, but the Bengals bring back their starting five from last season, including LT Orlando Brown Jr. and second-year RT Amarius Mims. Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, and Cody Ford complete the interior.

The offensive core remains in place for Brown to duplicate his success from last season.

Passing Game Keeps Brown Involved 

HC Zac Taylor’s offense remains one of the most aggressive in the NFL, finishing top-two in pass rate for the third straight season and first in neutral pass rate.

Getting the RB involved in the pass game has been central to Taylor’s scheme.

Brown’s receiving skill set aligns perfectly with the Bengals’ high-pass-rate, shotgun-heavy approach, making him a natural fit in this system.

Ja’Marr Chase

Bottom Line: 1.01 for Good Reason

Chase dominated in 2024, capturing the WR triple crown and finishing as fantasy’s No. 1 WR by a wide margin. With elite volume, efficiency, and red-zone usage, he remains one of the most bankable difference-makers in fantasy football entering 2025 — and a near consensus 1.01 in fantasy drafts.

2024 Summary

Chase Scores Receiving Triple Crown

Chase delivered a historic season:

• 403 fantasy points (WR1)
• 23.7 PPR points per game (WR1)
• NFL leader in targets (175), receptions (127), yards (1,708), and TDs (17)

He became the 17th WR in NFL history to win the triple crown (receptions, yards, and TDs) and logged 10 top-12 finishes. That included six top-5s and three overall WR1 weeks. 

It was the 15th-best PPR season ever by a WR and 12th-best since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

Alpha Role Included Slot Versatility

Chase owned a 27.9% target share (eighth among WRs), operating as the alpha in Cincinnati’s pass-first offense. 

He lined up 63.9% wide and 34.3% in the slot, giving the Bengals flexibility to move him around and force mismatches. He dominated red-zone work, leading all WRs with 49 red-zone targets, 19 end-zone targets, and 13.8 expected receiving TDs.

WR Turned Targets Into TDs

Despite the huge volume, Chase remained incredibly efficient:

• 84.7 PFF receiving grade (12th among WRs with 50+ targets)
• 2.45 yards per route (6th)
• 6.6 yards after catch per reception (8th)
• 9.1-yard average target depth (63rd)
• 7.1% drop rate (32nd)

His ability to generate explosive yards after catch while operating closer to the line of scrimmage added a new layer to his already elite profile.

Offense Goes Pass-Heavy, Chase-Centric

Cincinnati ranked second in pass rate and first in neutral pass rate, fueling Chase’s massive volume. 

QB Joe Burrow attempted a league-high number of red-zone and end-zone passes. Aand despite the Bengals’ 32nd-ranked pass blocking, the offense leaned heavily on quick reads and Chase's after-catch ability.

Chase’s numbers also improved when WR Tee Higgins was in the lineup, with Chase earning more targets, receptions, receiving yards, TDs, and PPR fantasy points per game.

Chase has now posted four straight top-12 fantasy PPR finishes to start his career and set career highs in targets, receptions, yards, TDs, and PPR points in 2024. 

Wideout Went Unscathed for First Time Since 2021

Chase played all 17 games in 2024 after missing a game in 2023 with an A/C joint sprain in his shoulder. 

Fracturing his hip in 2022 was the most significant injury of Chase’s career.

He enters 2025 with no injury concerns.

2025 Expectations

WR1 Volume Ain't Going Away

Chase returns as the clear-cut No. 1 WR for Cincinnati and will continue to dominate targets. 

Chase has already proven he can maintain elite production even with WR Tee Higgins on the field. 

Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton will battle for the third WR spot, but neither are a threat to take work away from Chase.

Same Core Means Same Production Path

QB Joe Burrow is coming off a career year, and the Bengals’ pass-heavy scheme will continue to lean on Chase as the offensive centerpiece. 

RB Chase Brown and TE Mike Gesicki return to their starting roles.

The offensive line remains a concern, but the Bengals bring back their starting five from last season, including LT Orlando Brown Jr. and second-year RT Amarius Mims. Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, and Cody Ford complete the interior.

System Relies on Heavy Volume

HC Zac Taylor’s system ranked top-two in pass rate and pace last year and continues to maximize Chase’s strengths with heavy short-to-intermediate volume and red-zone scheming. 

The system is elite for WR production, and Chase is its engine.

Tee Higgins

Bottom Line: Top-12 Upside Depends on Health

Despite playing just 12 games, Higgins played just 12 games last year but finished as a top-five WR in PPR points per game. And that sums him up perfectly! If he can stay healthy in 2025, Higgins offers clear top-12 upside, even with Ja’Marr Chase lining up on the other side.

2024 Summary

Higgins Quietly Elite in Limited Season

Higgins totaled 218.2 fantasy points (WR17) in only 12 games, averaging 18.7 PPR points per game (WR5), a career-best mark. 

He scored 10 TDs (fifth among WRs) and was remarkably consistent late in the season, posting a top-20 finish in six of his last seven full games. 

He commanded 109 targets, ranking 26th overall, despite missing five games.

Reliable Outside Threat with a Possession Twist

Higgins handled a 24.0% target share and functioned as Cincinnati’s primary outside WR (80.4% wide, 19.4% slot). 

According to Fantasy Points, he posted a 29.8% first-read target rate (23rd) and was a go-to option in the red zone, where his size and ball skills thrived. 

Notably, his usage profile shifted with a career-low 9.8-yard average target depth and 12.5 yards per catch, signaling a move toward more possession-style work.

Higgins Pairs Elite Efficiency with Solid Volume

Higgins combined nice volume with elite efficiency:

• 88.4 PFF receiving grade (sixth among WRs with 50+ targets)
• 2.10 yards per route (25th)
• +1.2 yards after catch over expectation 

He didn’t create a ton of separation (2.4-yard average) or yards after catch per reception (3.2, 58th), but his strong hands, route timing, and sideline awareness made him extremely reliable.

Scheme + Burrow Put Higgins in Position to Win

Cincinnati ranked second in pass rate and first in neutral pass rate, fueling Higgins’ strong volume. 

QB Joe Burrow attempted a league-high number of red-zone and end-zone passes, and despite the Bengals’ 32nd-ranked pass blocking, the offense leaned heavily on quick reads and the elite play of their WRs.

Another 900+ Yards ... And New TD Heights

Higgins has now posted four 900+ yard seasons. But 2024 was his first year with double-digit TDs. 

His target share (24.0%) and catch rate (69.5%) both climbed, while he hit career lows in average target depth and yards per catch, suggesting a shift toward more chain-moving consistency rather than vertical dependency.

Durability Remains the Red Flag

Higgins missed the first two games of the season with a surprise hamstring injury at practice.

He missed three more games later in the season with a quad strain, and played through an ankle injury in Week 18.

Higgins has sustained a hamstring injury in each of the last five seasons, which remains the biggest concern in his profile.

2025 Expectations

WR2 Label, WR1 Production

Higgins projects as a high-volume WR2 with weekly WR1 upside for fantasy squads.

He proved that he can put up elite fantasy production even playing alongside Ja’Marr Chase.

Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton will battle for the third WR spot, but neither is a threat to take work away from Higgins.

Loaded Offense Back Again

QB Joe Burrow is coming off a career year, and the Bengals’ pass-heavy scheme will continue to lean on Higgins as a focal point.

RB Chase Brown and TE Mike Gesicki return to their starting roles.

The offensive line remains a concern, but the Bengals bring back their starting five from last season, including LT Orlando Brown Jr. and second-year RT Amarius Mims. Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, and Cody Ford complete the interior.

Taylor’s System Still a WR Paradise

HC Zac Taylor’s system ranked top-two in pass rate and pace and continues to maximize Higgins’ strengths with heavy short-to-intermediate volume and red-zone scheming. 

The system is elite for WR production, and Higgins remains a central cog.

Mike Gesicki

Bottom Line: Gesicki Needs Help to Be Relevant

Gesicki delivered nice production in 2024 but thrived when Tee Higgins was off the field. With Higgins active, Gesicki's usage and fantasy impact dipped sharply. That casts doubt on whether he can be more than a low-end TE2 in 2025. Gesicki at least looks attractive late in best ball drafts, though.

2024 Summary

Volume Without the Payoff

Gesicki finished TE13 in total fantasy points (143.5) and TE17 in points per game (9.0) across 16 games. 

He logged 83 targets (12th), 65 catches (T-8th), and 665 yards (10th), but scored just two TDs all season. 

His nine top-12 weekly finishes highlighted streamable value, though limited scoring kept his ceiling in check.

When Higgins Sat, Gesicki Ate

Gesicki played a jumbo-slot role in Cincinnati’s pass-heavy system, aligning in the slot 67.3% of the time (highest among TEs) and just 9.3% inline. 

He averaged 5.2 targets per game, but this was heavily dependent on Tee Higgins’ availability: 

• With Higgins (11 games): 4.3 targets, 6.8 PPR points per game
• Without Higgins (5 games): 7.2 targets, 13.8 PPR points per game

His 12.6% target share for the season ranked 23rd at the position.

Reliable Target Limited After the Catch

Gesicki’s 69.2 PFF receiving grade ranked 20th among TEs with 30+ targets. 

He averaged 1.57 yards per route (13th) with an 8.0-yard average target depth (12th), showing his ability to stretch the seam.

Gesicki ranked favorably with a 79.3% catch rate (14th) and 3.4% drop rate (23rd), as well.

However, Gesicki was inefficient after the catch, posting -0.6 yards after catch over expectation and just 3.9 yards after the catch per reception (34th).

Cincinnati ranked second in pass rate and first in neutral pass rate, creating big passing volume. QB Joe Burrow led the league in total pass attempts, plus red-zone and end-zone passes.

Ironman Gesicki Rolls On

Gesicki played in all 17 games in 2024. He hasn’t missed a game due to injury since 2020.

2025 Expectations

Tertiary Role, With Some Upside

Gesicki projects as the Bengals' top receiving TE but will remain a tertiary option behind WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

TEs Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson are mainly blockers in multi-TE sets.

Promising second-year TE Erick All is expected to miss all of 2025 after re-tearing his right ACL in November.

Same Cast, Same Challenges

QB Joe Burrow is coming off a career year, and the Bengals will continue to be one of the league’s pass-heaviest offenses.

RB Chase Brown, WR Ja’Marr Chase, and WR Tee Higgins will keep their roles.

The offensive line remains a concern, but the Bengals bring back their starting five from last season, including LT Orlando Brown Jr. and second-year RT Amarius Mims. Cordell Volson, Ted Karras, and Cody Ford complete the interior.

How Do Bengals Fit in the Rankings?

Does Tee Higgins make sense as a draft target? Only one way to find out.

Check the fantasy football rankings for your format now to see if we like him as much as the market does.

The video below finds Jared and Matt discussing Chase, Higgins, and plenty more players throughout the WR rankings ...

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