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Don’t Trust The Box Score: Ashton Jeanty Is Dominating in Spite of His Team

Trust The Film

Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

Jeanty rewarded patient managers in Week 4 with a 21-138-1 rushing line plus a pair of TD catches. But he came back to earth in Week 5. His 14-67-0 rushing line was saved in PPR leagues by 5 catches for 42 yards.

Those 67 rushing yards marked his second-highest total of the year. I wanted to explore whether the lack of consistent production stemmed from Jeanty’s NFL adjustment or the Raiders' offense being too limited. Watching him, it’s clear he isn’t the problem.

When the Line Collapses, Jeanty Creates Something from Nothing

Every RB gets hit in the backfield at times, but it’s hard to watch it happen to Jeanty again and again.

On this play, S Nick Cross comes off the edge, flying past WR Jakobi Meyers for an easy tackle on Jeanty in the backfield.

The pulling TE leaves a wide gap for Cross to exploit, and he steps past Meyers with little resistance. OC Chip Kelly called this same TE pull several times in the game, and it rarely worked, often leading to Jeanty getting hit in the backfield.

The lack of protection adjustments ruined this play from the start. QB Geno Smith and C Jordan Meredith needed to account for Cross to give Jeanty a chance. Those adjustments rarely came throughout the game, or the season so far.

This off-tackle run shows what Jeanty can do with even a little blocking. He accelerates outside with burst, brushes off contact from behind, and sidesteps low tackles to follow his blocks for a long gain.

These positive runs highlight why Jeanty was drafted sixth overall this past April. His contact balance and explosiveness make him dangerous with any space, and he showed that repeatedly in this game.

On this run, the center gets pushed back into Jeanty’s path on an off-tackle run. Jeanty makes a smooth sidestep back inside to salvage the play before the defense collapses. He turns a 1-yard gain into 4 through vision and quick transition.

A Glimpse of What the Raiders Offense Could Be

Chip Kelly drew up a creative play to get Jeanty into the open field in the first quarter. The Raiders need more of these looks to find offensive success.

The Raiders executed this speed option perfectly, with Geno Smith freezing the edge defender and pitching to Jeanty. His acceleration off the pitch turned it into a 12-yard gain.
Option plays won’t work often in the NFL, but they can create chunk yardage when used sparingly.

A more sustainable way to get Jeanty into space is through the air. The Raiders had been hesitant to use him as a receiver, averaging only two targets per game through the first four weeks. In Week 5, he drew seven targets and caught five.

Here, Jeanty runs a streak from the backfield against LB Joe Bachie, a clear mismatch, and gains 29 yards. He ran a variety of routes in the game and served as an excellent checkdown for Smith. Incorporating deeper routes like this one kept the Colts’ defense honest, even drawing a safety down to cover Jeanty in man.

The Talent’s There; The Situation Isn’t … Yet

The Raiders’ poor overall play makes it hard for Jeanty to produce consistent fantasy points. In the 40-6 blowout loss to Indianapolis, the team turned to Raheem Mostert in the second half once the game was out of reach. That remains a risk this season.

Also concerning: Jeanty’s lack of red-zone usage. He has touched the ball on just nine of the Raiders’ 31 red-zone plays (29%) this season. Two of those touches resulted in TDs in Week 4.

Jeanty’s talent stands out on film. If Las Vegas can stay competitive, or even marginally improve, he has the potential to be a dominant fantasy force. 

Kelly and Pete Carroll must find more ways to feature him, especially near the goal line. If that happens, Jeanty could prove a strong buy-low candidate before the Titans game this week.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders

The preseason darling finally paid off with a 14-111-2 stat line and 2 catches for 39 yards against the Chargers. His film shows promising traits, but not enough to trust him as an RB1 moving forward.

Breakout Game Wasn’t as Clean as It Appears

On this play, Croskey-Merritt takes the handoff with traffic in front of him. A cut to his left would have opened a lane off tackle. Instead, he runs into an out-of-position pulling guard and goes down for a loss.

One of the main knocks on his NFL Draft profile was his vision, and it showed again here. Even with the big rushing day, he left yards on the field by sticking to scripted paths instead of finding cutback lanes.

This off-tackle run shows the other side of his game. Croskey-Merritt bounces outside and scores using his burst. Mixed in with his missed opportunities were runs like this that show his upside.

The TD itself wasn’t difficult, but it required the athleticism to accelerate and separate from defenders, something Croskey-Merritt clearly has.

The 111 yards and 2 TDs were impressive. But to reach his potential in PPR formats, he’ll need consistent receiving work.

This 28-yard catch looks great in the box score. Croskey-Merritt slips out into the flat, and the Chargers completely ignore his route after the play fake. The result is an easy big gain.
But this seems to be the only way Washington will target him: when he’s wide open.

On another play, Croskey-Merritt’s motion looks awkward, and he loses balance while changing direction. He then runs to the flat, but the zone defender keeps eyes on him, and Jayden Daniels looks elsewhere.

After a strong start, Croskey-Merritt fumbled early in the fourth quarter. The defense closed in quickly, leaving little room to work. Falling for a short loss would have been acceptable, but fumbling gave the Chargers the ball and reduced his workload. He saw only three more touches the rest of the game.

Opportunity’s Knocking, but He’s Still Learning

Croskey-Merritt’s production and usage both point to opportunity. He doubled the snaps of RB Chris Rodriguez, who had started the previous two games. That level of involvement in a strong Commanders offense could still pay dividends for fantasy managers.

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he leads all RBs (minimum 25 carries) in yards per carry (6.58) and rush yards over expected per attempt (2.17).

Still, there are red flags.

Similar to when we broke down Quinshon Judkins’ film last week, Croskey-Merritt’s receiving volume will likely remain low given his skill set. His vision also remains raw. 

With refinement, Croskey-Merritt could develop into a dangerous all-around back.

For now, though, don’t expect these RB1-level performances to continue every week.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

Olave opened his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons before injuries derailed his 2024 campaign. He currently ranks second in the NFL in targets (behind Puka Nacua) but only 31st among WRs in PPR points per game.

The film, however, shows a receiver who continues to get open with ease.

When the Saints Scheme for Olave, Good Things Happen

Olave displays excellent route running here, using a smooth crossing route to gain separation. As Spencer Rattler rolls out under pressure, Olave calls for the ball and works into space for a 17-yard gain.

On this play, Olave goes in motion to catch the ball in the flat without losing momentum. The movement creates a defensive miscommunication, leaving him with open field to pick up 9 yards.

Finding creative ways to get Olave the ball often leads to positive plays and should be a core part of the Saints' offense. Unfortunately, Rattler’s play continues to limit Olave’s production.

Olave Keeps Getting Open; QB Keeps Missing Him

Olave executes another strong crossing route here as the first read in the progression. The play design opens the middle of the field for him by sending the LB toward the flat.

If Rattler releases the ball at Olave’s break, it’s an easy 20-yard completion. Instead, he hesitates, worried the LB might not vacate the middle. The late throw allows the defense to recover and break up the pass.

Olave’s film is filled with moments like this: great routes wasted by poor timing or hesitation.

On this Out route, Olave stumbles slightly coming out of his break but still creates separation. Rattler throws behind him, forcing Olave to adjust for a difficult 5-yard catch.

Ideally, the pass should have led him upfield, allowing for yards after the catch. Instead, Olave must go down to secure it, another example of good route work undone by ball placement.

He’s Not the Problem; He’s the Solution Waiting on a Throw

Olave is playing the best football of his career, but poor quarterback play is suppressing his fantasy output.

Even in the Saints’ win over the Giants, Rattler didn’t perform at a starting-caliber level. A switch to rookie Tyler Shough could be on the horizon, and even a modest upgrade at QB would create more consistent opportunities for Olave.

He’s an intriguing buy-low candidate before that change happens.

Next Up

TD Regression Watch: McCaffrey, Jacobs, And Mahomes About to Pop

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.