Fantasy Football Redraft

Print

Top 7 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 9 Usage

Follow the Usage

Playing time and touches are the backbone of fantasy scoring. 

Chasing one-week box scores can be dangerous. Investing in players who are on the field and getting the football is more reliable.

That’s why we study playing time and usage every week during the season. It can give us a tangible edge in start/sit decisions, waiver moves, and trades.

Here are the top 7 fantasy football takeaways from Week 9 usage:

1. Did Ken Walker Just Take Over Seattle’s Backfield?

It didn’t show up in the box score, but we saw a notable shift in Seattle’s backfield coming out of the bye week.

Walker’s 54% snap rate and 50% route rate were both season highs. Charbonnet registered season lows in both.

For the first time in their seven games together this year, Walker out-snapped Charbonnet in both long-down-and-distance and two-minute situations. 

And, perhaps most importantly, Walker out-snapped Charbonnet four to one inside the five-yard line. Charbonnet held a huge 14 to one edge in that department over their first six games together.

Walker's 12.5 expected PPR points in Week 9 were good for 17th among RBs -- and were 7.0 more than Charbonnet. Walker trailed Charbonnet 9.0 to 11.4 in expected points over their first six games.

Perhaps this is a one-game blip and Seattle goes back to a pure committee with Charbonnet getting the goal-line work next week. But it's just as likely that it took the bye week for the Seahawks to recognize that Walker is their best RB. He's beating Charbonnet in virtually every efficiency metric this season, including yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, and missed tackles forced per carry.

If Walker hangs on to this role, he's capable of scoring as a top-20 RB the rest of the way. He's my favorite trade target this week.

2. Giants Rob Us Of A Useful RB

I spilled a lot on ink (way too much, evidently) in this space last week working through Tracy's range of outcomes as New York's lead back.

The Giants ripped that idea to shreds by going full-on committee in Week 9. I'm not sure our initial assumption was wrong considering how the Giants deployed Tracy and Singletary last year and this season. But it’s certainly time to re-assess the situation.

This was a 50/50 split right from the start. Tracy and Singletary both played five snaps on the Giants’ first drive vs. the 49ers.

Singletary wound up tallying more snaps and carries than Tracy, possibly because he was the more effective runner in this one, averaging 5.4 yards per carry to Tracy’s 3.6.

Singletary also notably played all five of New York’s snaps inside the 10-yard line and the only snap inside the five.

Tracy was the leader in passing situations, though. He beat Singletary in long-down-and-distance snaps, played all the two-minute snaps, and ultimately ran four more routes.

This could remain a 'hot hand' situation going forward -- alongside a QB who is stealing plenty of rushing work. I'd still lean toward Tracy as the better fantasy bet thanks to his youth and passing-game role. But neither guy should be treated as more than a RB3 at this point.

3. Rico Dowdle Reclaims Workhorse Role

Kudos to HC Dave Canales for being transparent about his backfield plans lately. He said both guys would get work when Hubbard first returned from his calf injury. Then he strongly suggested last week that the backfield would be turned back over to Dowdle.

That's exactly what happened in Week 9.

Dowdle dominated playing time and touches. His 74% snap rate was the 11th highest among RBs on the week, and his 25 carries were tied for third most. Dowdle ranked sixth at the position in expected PPR points on the week.

And he was efficient again, averaging 5.2 yards per carry against a Packers defense that entered the game allowing just 3.8.

Dowdle is playing well and looks set for big volume the rest of the way in a Carolina offense that's turned absurdly run-heavy. The Panthers rank dead last in pass rate (46.5%), neutral pass rate (43.5%), and pass rate over expected (-10.8%) since Week 5.

It's worth noting that Carolina has the ninth-toughest remaining RB schedule, plus a Week 14 bye. But I'd still value Dowdle as a top-12 fantasy RB the rest of the way.

4. Do the Broncos Have a New No. 1 WR?

Sutton has continued to play more than Franklin over the last three weeks. But Franklin leads Sutton in every other usage metric.

The edge in first-read target share is most notable, suggesting that Franklin's volume is designed. He's also continued to control targets in and around the end zone. Franklin has garnered 36% of Denver's red-zone targets and a whopping 67% of end-zone targets over the last three weeks. Corresponding numbers for Sutton: 14% and 11%.

Add it all up and Franklin ranks eighth among WRs in expected PPR points per game over the last three weeks. Sutton sits 33rd.

Will this usage continue? I'm not betting on it. Three games is still a relatively small sample. Sutton out-targeted Franklin 40 to 34 over the first six games of the season and beat him 11.8 to 10.6 in expected points per game.

Plus, Franklin has been one of the least efficient receivers in the league. He's caught just 58% of his targets and averaged 10.4 yards per catch. His 1.37 yards per route ranks 50th among 65 qualifying WRs. Sutton is averaging 1.72 yards per route (31st).

I'm expecting some volume to shift back to Sutton, although he's not a good bet for the type of usage we projected back in the summer. This looks like a 1A-1B situation with Sutton and Franklin likely settling in as WR3s with spike-week potential.

5. R.J. Harvey Trending Up?

We got a subtle but notable shift in Harvey's usage this week.

His passing-game role clearly grew. Harvey's 44% route rate and 14% target share were both season highs. And he scored a receiving TD for the third straight game. That pace will obviously slow, but it's worth noting that Harvey has seen three red-zone targets over the last three weeks. That ranks second among Broncos (21% of the team total) and is tied for first among RBs.

Harvey's role also expanded in a less obvious way in Week 9. Although he tied a season low with two carries, he played a season-high 42% of Denver's early-down snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. That usage opens the door for more carries going forward.

Harvey's passing-game usage has him in the weekly RB3 mix, especially in PPR leagues. But I'm still leaving the light on for his chances of carving out a big enough role to perhaps flirt with RB2 value.

You probably can't trade for him after his recent TD barrage, but Harvey is a strong hold for the back half of his rookie season.

6. How Screwed Is Keenan Allen?

Allen's playing time has cratered over the last two weeks. He registered a 25% snap rate and 50% route rate in Week 8 and then went 37% and 54% last week.

The problem: Los Angeles' rookies.

TE Oronde Gadsden leads the team in routes and is tied with Allen for second in targets over the last two weeks. WR Tre Harris has also seen a boost in playing time, climbing from a 25% route rate in his first six games in a healthy Chargers WR corps to 34% over the last two.

Separately -- but probably related to Gadsden's and Harris' usage -- we've seen a big shift in the Chargers' personnel deployment. They had three WRs on the field for 58% of their snaps over the first seven weeks of the season. That's dipped to 47% over the last two. That's a big deal for Allen, who continues to play almost exclusively in three-WR sets.

It's certainly worth noting that the last two weeks were comfortable wins for the Chargers, which might have impacted personnel usage and certainly impacted overall pass volume. And, despite the reduced playing time, Allen has still drawn a decent 19% target share over the last two games.

So let's not bury him. But we can't consider Allen more than a WR3 for now. And he'll drop further if his route rate doesn't bounce back.

7. Big Finish Coming For Ashton Jeanty?

Jeanty came out of his bye week with a noticeably bigger role. His 90% snap rate was a season high. And his 67% route rate was his second-highest mark, trailing only a 68% in Week 6. Jeanty controlled both third-down and two-minute snaps, something he hadn't been doing for much of the season. And he played all six snaps inside the 10-yard line.

Just as important as the usage spike for Jeanty was that Vegas' offense looked competent-bordering-on-good with a healthy Brock Bowers. The Raiders have now scored 20 and 29 points in Bowers' two healthiest games of the season.

If Jeanty continues to get this level of usage -- and Vegas' offense can be something better than pathetic -- the rookie could deliver top-10 fantasy numbers the rest of the way.

Next Up

Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups: Colston Loveland Leads the Pack

Next Article  

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.