Don’t Trust The Box Score: Don’t Be Fooled By Kyle Pitts Again

But not every 5-100-1 is built the same. That’s why we use not only advanced analytics, but also film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.

Every week, I’ll bring my 21 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn't match reality, showcasing a few players who performed significantly better or worse than the box score indicates.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Pitts recorded his best fantasy performance ever last week, going 11-166-3 on 11 targets. He dominated in the first half before the Buccaneers defense decided to bracket Pitts, often ensuring he was double-teamed.

Pitts’ draft capital (fourth overall) and athleticism (4.4-second 40 time) created high expectations from the start. He flashed as a rookie, posting 68-1,026-1 and finishing as TE10 in PPR points per game. He followed that by finishing as TE23, TE17, and TE18 over the next three seasons.

This season has marked a comeback for Pitts. It’s the first time he has topped 70 catches, and he has already tied his career high of 4 TDs. He currently sits as TE6 in PPR points per game. But the film does not show anything exceptional despite Pitts’ success.

On this play, Pitts runs an in route against a soft zone coverage from the Buccaneers. The MLB fakes a blitz, then turns to cover Pitts. The defender stops short, allowing Pitts to move into an open hole in the coverage.

Pitts’ speed and athleticism help him reach the open spot quickly, but the defense’s zone coverage mistake made the catch possible. This became a theme throughout the game.

On this red-zone play, Pitts works out of the slot on a stutter-and-go route. The outside CB bites on the shallow route and reacts late to Pitts’ go route.

That leaves Pitts wide open to make a leaping catch in the end zone. It was a solid route and catch, but a zone mistake again springs Pitts.

Pitts still committed some mental mistakes. On this play, he settles into the zone but works away from Cousins and toward the defense. That leads to Pitts being tackled as he catches the pass, and he drops it.

Pitts was the checkdown on this play and tried to cheat his way into extra yardage, despite his route being well short of a first down.

This is a common theme for Pitts. He often hunts bigger plays instead of focusing on helping his QB with more accessible positioning. The big plays hit last week, but this tendency has led to less usage as a checkdown throughout his career.

On this TD, Pitts and Cousins execute a perfect back-shoulder play. Pitts hand-fights with the CB and turns back as the ball is in the air.

He does push off the CB to gain separation and double-clutches the ball as he falls. Pitts stays inbounds with possession, and no penalty flag comes out -- though it easily could have.

This play showcases Pitts’ skill set and physicality, though potential offensive pass interference comes up more often than expected with Pitts.

Proceed With Caution Next Year

Without Drake London, Pitts became the go-to target early for the Falcons. Against a weak Buccaneers zone coverage, Pitts took advantage of mistakes and used his athleticism to win.

But mental lapses and uncalled push-offs still raise red flags for Pitts’ future. He remains unpolished and gets taken out of the game when defenses shift to bracket coverage with some man mixed in.

Pitts is scheduled to become a free agent after this season and could land in a new situation. There will be plenty of hype around his fantasy status next offseason, but temper your expectations. This was likely the best output Pitts will have in his career.

George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys

Since the bye week, Pickens’ PPR fantasy finishes have steadily declined:

• Week 11: WR3
• Week 12: WR4
• Week 13: WR17
• Week 14: WR37
• Week 15: WR59

This recent dip in production has led to speculation about Pickens being uninterested and letting his personality hurt his production. It did not help that his WR59 finish came on a 3-33-0 stat line on 6 targets against the Vikings.

Pickens still showcased elite talent on film despite the lack of production. There may also be some truth to Pickens not playing as hard when the ball is not coming his way.

On this play, Pickens runs a clean out route. He hits the proper depth to stay in front of the CB, setting up an easy throw from Dak Prescott. Pickens stays in bounds and picks up an easy 10 yards.

This is a textbook route by an outside WR against a deep zone.

On this play, Pickens again runs a curl route with good depth. He stays in front of the deep safety and identifies the shallow CB as he turns back to the ball.

Pickens adjusts as Prescott is forced out of the pocket, giving Prescott a window toward the sideline to place the ball. They connect for a 17-yard gain. It is another good route with savvy movement from a veteran WR.

Pickens’ lack of hustle did show up at times last week. He would occasionally slow down on routes when he was not expected to get the ball.

On this play, Pickens slows down and gives up on his route when Prescott steps up in the pocket. He then stops and watches the play unfold on the opposite side of the field after TE Luke Schoonmaker snares the catch.

Pickens is far from the only WR in the league to slow down when a play breaks down, especially when it is scripted to the other side of the field. He is also not the only WR who fails to work across the field to block. Still, Pickens’ history -- which includes one team already giving up on him -- makes this particularly concerning.

Don’t Overreact to the Dip

Pickens still knows how to get open and can win against both zone and man coverage. His success has drawn more defensive attention, rather than allowing defenses to focus solely on CeeDee Lamb. That shift can lead to volatility in Pickens’ fantasy production.

He faces a tough matchup against the Chargers this Sunday. But if you reach your fantasy championship in Week 17, Pickens could erupt against a weak Commanders secondary. Continue to trust him despite the recent lack of production.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard has posted a 39-265-3 rushing line over the last two weeks. We highlighted Pollard’s positive film film back in Week 4, and his recent success has pushed Spears into a backseat role.

Spears has totaled only 83 yards over the last two weeks, but he still showcases a high-level skill set. With good burst and the ability to break tackles, Spears’ film shows a runner who could do more with increased opportunities.

On this play, Spears runs up the gut. The hole nearly closes as the DL sheds an inside block. Spears shifts to the open gap, then works back to his original lane after clearing the line of scrimmage.

Spears shows good power at the end of the run to pick up extra yardage on the 7-yard gain.

On this outside run, Spears shows good burst to reach the edge and outrun defenders. He benefits from a strong outside seal block and goes untouched for the length of the run.

This play highlights Spears’ upside as a change-of-pace, outside-zone runner. He has the vision and burst to break big plays when the blocks are there.

Spears remains an excellent receiver. He makes a sharp cut into the flat to separate from LB Dee Winters on this play, creating an easy throw for QB Cam Ward and space to turn upfield.

Spears breaks a tackle from Winters but gains little more as the defense closes. Even so, the play shows a slippery runner who is difficult to tackle in open space.

The Talent Is There, The Opportunity Isn’t

Spears continues to play second fiddle to Pollard, but the recent film shows consistent burst and power.

Both Spears and Pollard remain under contract through 2026, though a new coaching staff could look to shake up the roster. Spears profiles as a solid dynasty stash if he eventually finds a path out of Tennessee.

Ultimately, Spears’ skill set could surface later in his career, despite him currently sitting at RB44 in PPR points per game this season.

Next Up

Streaming Defense Week 16: Saints March All Over The Jets

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format, including redraft, dynasty, devy, C2C, IDP, CFF, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and a King's Classic Champion. Shane utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance. He led the industry in 2024 preseason Kicker Rankings and ranked second in preseason QB Rankings. He also ranked eighth in preseason IDP rankings.