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Fantasy Football Trade Targets Week 4: Time to Buy a Stud RB?

Big Backfield Buy-up

This week presents more symbiosis than usual between the Buys and Sells.

I didn’t take any science classes in college, so I’m probably applying that term incorrectly. But all you need to know is that the Week 4 trade targets can work together more than most sets of players I present in this space.

You’ll find RBs and tight ends in each section. And -- as always -- you’ll find the tools to help you figure out how to fit those guys into deals that will enhance your particular situation.

Let’s get to the names …

Week 4 Buys

• Alvin Kamara
• Josh Jacobs
• Kyle Pitts

Week 4 Sells

• DK Metcalf
• Javonte Williams
• Mark Andrews

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Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

We tend to focus more on WRs in this section, but this week finds a couple of RBs (plus a TE) worth your attention.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

This might seem like a goofy tactic, but let’s start with the most alarming issue facing Kamara: his relative lack of targets.

The veteran entered this season averaging 6.3 looks across his 115 NFL games. Through three weeks of this season, that’s down to 3.3. And it’s not simply an issue of team volume or bad luck.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Kamara has seen just 6.9% of Saints first-read targets. Why does that type of target matter? Because it indicates where the play was designed to go. And Kamara’s 2025 rate trails well behind …

1. WR Chris Olave (32%)
2. TE Juwan Johnson (29%)
3. WR Rashid Shaheed (17%)

The RB’s 8.3% overall target share ranks just 30th among all RBs to date.

Like I said, that’s an alarming development -- especially when you consider that it has come over the first three games under a new coach.

So why buy a 30-year-old RB who has seen his best thing taken away? Glad you asked …

How’s That Early Plan Working, Coach Moore?

I’d worry more about Kamara’s start if things were going well without him. But the 0-3 Saints rank:

• 29th in points
• 20th in total yards
• 28th in yards per play
• 23rd in total offensive DVOA
• 19th in pass DVOA

Perhaps HC Kellen Moore has purposely downplayed Kamara’s receiving role in favor of options he views as more dynamic. But the veteran RB ranks 10th league wide in carry share and has already logged 50 rushing attempts through three losses.

It’d be pretty weird if Moore decided Kamara’s no longer good enough to be featured so much in the passing game but needs heavier usage in what’s always been his less efficient area.

Why Kamara Should Get More Targets

Spencer Rattler ain’t great. But he has completed 67% of his throws this season. And it sure looks like he gets worse the further down the field you ask him to throw. 

Check out Rattler’s rankings in Pro Football Focus passing grade for each range they measure:

• Behind the line of scrimmage: fifth
• Short (0-9 yards): ninth
• Intermediate (10-19 yards): 21st
• Deep (20+ yards): 33rd

I do have to acknowledge that the past three Kellen Moore-piloted offenses -- 2024 Eagles, 2023 Chargers, 2022 Cowboys -- didn’t go hard with first-read targets to RBs either. But let’s dig a little further.

• Philly went historically run-heavy, sports a dominant pair of WRs, and features one of the few QBs who’s arguably a bigger threat when he scrambles than when he throws to RBs.
• Austin Ekeler still finished second among 2023 Chargers in targets (74) despite missing three games.
• Moore’s four years as Dallas OC found Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combining for these target totals: 91, 111, 110, 78

Kamara doesn’t have that far to climb

The Saints RB drew 15.8% of first-read targets over the first six weeks last year. That’s the span before New Orleans lost WRs Rashid Shaheed and then Chris Olave for the season (and it led the position).

He hit 11.5% in 2023 to rank fourth among RBs. And Kamara ranked eighth at the position in 2022 with 9.8%.

Every single one of those shares still sits short of the top three on this year’s team. So we don’t need Kamara to overtake any current Saint in target share. We just need a bit more.

And if the Saints switch from Rattler to rookie QB Tyler Shough, more short passing would seem to make even more sense to help acclimate the newbie.

Oh Yeah, There’s Rushing Stuff Too

I got so wrapped up in my hypothetical receiving sales pitch to Coach Moore that I almost forgot about the rushing side. But this is a much easier sell.

As I mentioned earlier, Kamara’s already getting plenty of ground work. And it’s going OK. The team ranks 12th in adjusted line yards. Kamara’s yards before contact per attempt sit at the second-highest rate of his career (2.5). And upcoming matchups should help with the after-contact portion.

The next two weeks hold the Bills and Giants, who rank 29th and 32nd in rush DVOA so far.

That's a big change from the first three opponents, who all sit among the top 9 in that category.

Make a run at Kamara while he ranks just 21st in PPR points, because he could climb quickly.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

Jacobs hasn’t been terrible for his fantasy teams so far, posting at least 12.4 PPR points in each game. But he sits just 19th among RBs through three weeks and has delivered weak rushing production.

So what makes him a buy instead of a guy we should worry about?

Biggest Issue Stands in Front of Him

Jacobs hasn’t gotten much blocking help so far this season.

The Packers finished last year just 22nd in PFF run-blocking grade, but that’s down to 29th so far in 2025. The O-line also sits just 21st in adjusted line yards after ranking fifth last year. (That stat aims to measure the rushing yards per play the blocking accounts for.)

As a result, Jacobs is finding less room before first contact. He averaged 2.0 yards before contact per carry in 2024, according to Pro Football Reference. That tied the second-best mark of his career.

So far this season, that has dropped to 1.6, which would be the lowest mark of his career -- by 0.3. It shouldn’t be surprising that the lack of buildup room also has Jacobs’ yards after contact per attempt down significantly vs. last year (the degree depends on whose numbers you’re viewing). And he’s breaking tackles at the worst rate of his career.

O-Line Needs to Get Healthier; Matchups Improve This Week

We might have to be a little patient with the banged-up blockers. Big money G Aaron Banks missed Week 2 and played just half of Week 3. He continued to miss practice this Wednesday, so we’ll see about his status.

RT Zach Tom also sat out Wednesday with the oblique injury that cost him Week 2 and allowed him to play just one snap in Week 3. Replacement Anthony Belton graded terribly in that surprising loss to the Browns. And that brings up another factor.

Check out how Green Bay’s first three opponents rank in run-defense DVOA:

• Detroit: fourth
• Washington: fifth
• Cleveland: first

Tough start for your high-usage RB. But Jacobs still got force-fed. His 58 carries tie Saquon Barkley for second in the league so far. And the overall usage finds Jacobs sixth among RBs in expected PPR points per game.

A Week 4 trip to Dallas (20th in rush DVOA) presents a potential get-right spot. And then a Week 5 bye affords the O-line a chance to heal up. That impending bye could also help you get a better price from a needy manager.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Whew. The Falcons delivered quite a stinker at Carolina in Week 3. And that means it’s time to strike.

You could target WR Drake London, but we already included him last week (and will update that “buy” call below). So let’s focus instead on the embattled TE.

Note: Before we get into Pitts’ case, I would not look to combine him and London on the same fantasy roster. By highlighting both players in successive weeks, we’re obviously betting on the Atlanta pass offense improving. But I’m not trusting this to become so strong a passing attack that we feel good about two Falcons in the same weekly lineup.

Pitts’ Usage Looks Much Better Than Last Year

Pitts ran a route on just 67.4% of Atlanta pass plays last year, ranking 17th among TEs. That’s up to 87.1% and tied for second at the position through three weeks of 2025.

Pitts has also seen his target share climb from 12.5% to 17.9%. His first-read target share is up from 11.3% to 16.9%. And he’s being used more like a tight end than a big wideout.

Pitts has still lined up wide on 21.2% of his pass snaps so far -- near-equal to last year’s rate -- but his slot rate sits at a career low and his inline (traditional TE spot) rate at a career high.

In many cases, this would be a negative development for a TE. But it appears to be helping Pitts’ efficiency.

Look Past His Low Yards Per Catch

A career-low 9.0 yards per reception so far would also seem alarming in many cases. But for Pitts, it indicates a shift to shorter routes that’s paying off in other categories.

His 4.8-yard average depth of target sits well below last year’s 8.7, according to PFF. And that rate marked a significant deep vs. his first three seasons.

Pitts, in turn, has caught 79% of his targets after entering this season with a 59% catch rate. His 5.0 receptions per game sit 1.0 ahead of the career high he set as an exciting rookie (remember?) and further ahead of his past three seasons (2.9 per game over that span).

Pitts is sitting on a career high in Pro Football Reference receiving success rate and his most yards per game since that rookie campaign.

So Why Would People Be Selling?

All those positives still find Pitts ranking just 13th at the position in total PPR points; 18th in points per game. And that output gets worse the less your league awards for receptions.

That’s because Pitts has yet to find the end zone. (What else is new?) And that might remain an issue. He has yet to even see an end-zone target. But that seems more a Falcons problem than a Pitts predicament.

According to PFF, QB Michael Penix Jr. ranks just 22nd in expected TDs -- vs. 16th in expected yards. His six end-zone pass attempts tie for a solid 12th league wide, but the first-year starter has connected on none of them. Only one other QB (Daniel Jones) has attempted 2+ end-zone throws without converting at least one for a TD.

So positive regression on TD passes is coming. We’ll see just how much that includes Pitts, but I’m sure willing to bet that a 25-year-old (on Oct. 6), 6’6 TE will be part of that solution.

Any general improvement for Penix should only further help Pitts. And if the first-time starter continues to struggle, Kirk Cousins awaits.

How to Trade for Pitts

Acquiring a TE (or QB) can be a little trickier than targeting a RB or WR, because this is a one-starter position in most leagues. That makes a 1-1 TE trade more difficult, because you’d have to find someone:

• interested in moving Pitts
• interested in acquiring your TD
• and not skeptical of your motives in a 1-1 TE deal

You’re best bet for acquiring Pitts will likely be including him in a multi-player deal. Use the Trade Builder inside your Trade Navigator to help put together the right package for your situation.

Recent Buys

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 3 Report

Week 2 Report

• Pickens might seem like more of a "buy" with CeeDee Lamb's injury. But that probably also has his current holder expecting more targets. Pickens is no lock for that, though, and Lamb could miss as little as two weeks. So Pickens remains a fine pickup at the right price. Just don't overpay.
• Williams' usage issue remains after three weeks. We'd like to believe all the offseason buzz means that'll get fixed. But it might not in this crowded offense that has rebounded overall the past two weeks.

Sell These Players

These three guys are scoring beyond their usage. That’s obviously a positive … until it regresses.

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

You might check the WR rankings, see Metcalf at 31st in total PPR points, and figure that he’s headed for a big rebound. But that’ll take a big shift in his usage.

Metcalf is actually scoring 1.8 points per game over his expectation through three weeks. The first-year Steelers sits 50th among WRs in expected PPR points per game.

It’s enough to make you wonder whether the Steelers knew what they were doing in acquiring him.

Can Arthur Smith Tell Metcalf and Calvin Austin Apart?

Metcalf’s on the field in Pittsburgh just as much as he was with last year’s Seahawks. But that’s about all that matches.

Through three weeks, Metcalf ranks just …

• 34th among WRs in target share
• 35th in yardage share
• 36th in first-read target share
• 55th in air-yards share

Teammate Calvin Austin ranks fourth in that category, more than doubling Metcalf at 53.6% of Pittsburgh’s targeted air to 23.4%.

Blame Metcalf’s Evan Engram-sized aDOT (5.8 yards), just one of many numbers down vs. his final Seattle season.

Those Seahawks had (old) Tyler Lockett, breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and an OC who got fired after the season, and yet they used Metcalf more effectively.

Why Shouldn’t We Bet on Them Figuring it Out?

There are two big reasons that we shouldn’t just trust these Steelers to figure out the usage and unlock Metcalf’s production.

The first reason: This doesn’t look like the same Aaron Rodgers. Nor should it.

The 42-year-old (come December), 21st-year NFL veteran faked football fans out with a 4-TD opening win at the Jets. Through three weeks, he’s averaging just 195.3 passing yards per game and rocking by far the worst PFF passing grade of his career (51.2 on a 0-100 scale).

The second reason: OC Arthur Smith.

Lemme do this the easy way and simply list the most productive receiver for every Arthur Smith offense in the NFL to date:

The unnatural phenomena that are A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry are primarily to blame for the rest of us having to suffer through the past four years of Smith slashing the tires on his offenses.

Brown clearly drove his production in both those Tennessee seasons under Smith by refusing to stop until he reached the end zone. And that 2020 campaign featured Henry’s career-high 2,027 rushing yards.

Brown has, of course, gone on to produce even better overall in Philly. Drake London immediately jumped to 16.5 points per game the season after Smith left Atlanta. And even George Pickens averaged 12.3 PPR points per game the season before Smith infected the Steelers.

And that year came with Kenny Pickett as the primary QB.

Get out on Metcalf while you can. This doesn’t need to be a full fire sale, but jump if/when you can find a meaningful return.

Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Williams looked like one of the most obvious sell candidates ever after that 2-TD opener at Philadelphia. And that’s exactly why we didn’t list him in our first run of this article the following week.

Since then, however, Williams has seemed to validate his status more. He’s no longer totally TD-inflated. He’s averaging a career-high 5.3 yards per rush. He’s tied for third among Cowboys in receptions (with George Pickens). And he’s seventh among RBs in PPR points.

So why sell now?

Williams Continues to Score Beyond His Means

Williams isn’t a total fraud. He sits 12th in expected PPR points per game. That’s a lot better than you anticipated when you drafted him. (Don’t lie.) And that represents a win for waiting to sell him.

But the 3.7 points per game over expectation for Williams sits tied for seventh-highest at the position. And there’s reason to question the usage and production continuing.

Receiving Has Been Completely Volume-Driven

We all love the career-high 4.3 receptions per game so far. But don’t ignore the career-low 4.5 yards per catch. That beats Miles Sanders’ 2.2, but it ranks just 36th among 44 RBs who have seen 5+ targets this year. Williams also sits just 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 31st in yards after catch per reception.

If rookie Jaydon Blue ever proves ready to play in an actual NFL game, that would clearly be his top area of usage. Blue posted a 42-368-6 receiving line in his final college season and averaged 9.0 yards per catch for his Texas career.

CeeDee Lamb Absence Could Hurt

Williams has seen 8+ defenders in the box on just 18.6% of his runs so far, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s just 24th-highest among 37 qualifiers.

That could quickly change with Dallas’ top WR set to miss 2-4 games for a high ankle sprain. And the first game will pit the Cowboys against a Packers D ranked No. 1 in total DVOA and sixth against the run.

If we get a total dud from Williams this week, the market value on him could drop quite a bit for Week 5.

Still Not Time to Panic Sell (Yet)

You don’t need to worry about those factors so much that you undersell Williams this week. A matchup with the much friendlier Carolina defense waits on the other side of Green Bay. And the current usage should at least keep Williams in usable fantasy range.

It’s also important to keep in mind that you’ve already gotten much more per-game scoring from Williams than you banked on at draft time. Even if you’re left holding a declining asset over the second half of the season, you can still count him as a draft win.

So try to sell Williams at this still high point, but don’t toss him in the bargain bin and risk losing equity on your move.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Andrews looks like the biggest “sell-now” option on this list.

The monster 2-TD fantasy line he hung on the Lions on Monday night might make him seem like the kind of obvious sell that I just mentioned with the Javonte Williams Week 1 example. But the key difference here is that Andrews sports a much longer record of production.

In this case, we’re trying to sell at a potential 2025 high point and get away from the reasons for concern.

Andrews’ Usage Has Disappointed So Far

Andrews has run a route on just 69.9% of Baltimore dropbacks through three weeks. That ranks 17th among TEs. And even his Week 3 rate hit just 68.4%. That rate’s up vs. last season but down vs. 2023, 2022, and 2021.

And that’s more troubling because it came with TE Isaiah Likely sidelined. That factor should boost Andrews’ playing time further, especially considering that the veteran entered this season healthy. That’s different from last year, when an August car crash seemed to limit Andrews’ early effectiveness.

Andrews finished last season just 18th among TEs in target share. And then he totaled just four looks across the first two weeks of this year. That marked an 8.3% share, in an offense that racked up 74 points across those games.

Big Complication Loading …

It’s cool that the Ravens said they wanted to get Andrews more involved heading into Week 3 and then delivered a big Andrews game. But the first three weeks have reminded us that this version of the Baltimore O doesn’t need the veteran tight end.

And now Likely appears on the verge of returning. He practiced each of the past two weeks, and Baltimore’s decision to keep him off IR suggests they expected him to return by this game.

Likely let the fantasy world down last year by never coming close to his monster Week 1 numbers the rest of the way. But his playing time picked back up (to 67.3% snap share) over the season’s final quarter, after a mid-season lull surrounding a Week 9 hamstring injury.

One down game from Andrews that also finds Likely producing, and the value here could tank.

If you’re sitting on Andrews with no other immediate TE answer, consider trying to send him in a multi-player offer that brings back Kyle Pitts plus help at another position.

Recent Sells

Let’s look back at our Sell recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 3 Report

• Mike Evans' injury helps Egbuka's near-term role, and we don't yet know how effective Chris Godwin will be upon his return.

Week 2 Report

• Jones remains stashable but not attractive enough to either pursue or sell.
• Hill and the Dolphins have rebounded over the past two weeks.
• Sampson's closer to an outright drop right now than a worthwhile fantasy asset. He's sitting third in playing time among Cleveland RBs.

Next Up

Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 4: Forget The Titans

Next Article  

Matt Schauf, Editor

Matt has earned two Fantasy Pros accuracy awards for IDP rankings and won thousands of dollars as a player across best ball, dynasty, and high-stakes fantasy formats. He has been creating fantasy football content for more than 20 years, with work featured by Sporting News, Rotoworld, Athlon, Sirius XM, and others. He's been with Draft Sharks since 2011.