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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways from Week 4 Usage

1. Bijan Robinson Haunted By The Ghost of Arthur Smith

We thought these shenanigans were over with the offseason departure of Arthur Smith. But, like he did too often last year, Robinson lost a bunch of work to RB Tyler Allgeier in the Week 4 win over the Saints.

HC Raheem Morris went with the old "hot hand" explanation afterward.

#Falcons HC Raheem Morris on the decision to roll with Tyler Allgeier:

“He got a couple runs in there and he was able to tote that thing, and you just keep feeding him. And he got a couple really good runs, he was critical for us. He’s the heavy back, and he was heavy for us… pic.twitter.com/BTwBcXTQsS

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 29, 2024

The Week 4 usage was a departure from the first 3 games, when Robinson:

• Played 82% of the snaps
• Ran a route on 70% of dropbacks
• Handled 64% of the team's carries
• Drew a 14% target share

I'd bet on that usage being closer to the norm going forward and still view Robinson as a top five fantasy RB. But the fact that what we saw in Week 4 is still in the range of outcomes under this new coaching staff gives Robinson a lower floor than we thought he'd have.

2. Travis Kelce Is TE1 Again

Kelce's problem over the first three weeks wasn't playing time. Or that he's washed up.

It was Rashee Rice, who's simply better on the short and intermediate routes that Kelce has feasted on over the years.

So, it's no surprise that when Rice was eliminated from the equation in Week 4, Kelce had his biggest game of the season.

With Rice and WR Marquise Brown out indefinitely, the Chiefs are almost back to where they were last year in terms of pass catchers (with Xavier Worthy the exception).

It stands to reason, then, that Kelce will get back near the 21% target share he finished with last season. And if that's the case, he's the favorite to lead all TEs in fantasy points the rest of the way.

3. More Problems For Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts owners don't need more bad news. Unfortunately, I have more bad news.

On top of the lack of targets and fantasy points, Pitts' routes have dwindled since the the opener. He registered a season-low 67% route rate in Atlanta's pass-heavy Week 4 game against the Saints. Pitts lost routes to Charlie freakin' Woerner in that one.

Through 4 weeks, Pitts ranks:

• 11th among TEs in route rate
• 19th in targets
• 23rd in expected PPR points per game
• 24th in actual PPR points per game

I'm not ready to call Pitts a drop yet -- in large part because the TE position has been so bad in general. But he's certainly lost must-start status.

He sits in the same tier as Tucker Kraft, Cole Kmet, Pat Freiermuth, and Colby Parkinson in our Week 5 Rankings.

4. Buy Breece Hall

Hall laid a big turd in Week 4 with just 18 scoreless yards. And it was made more frustrating by the fact that he was out-produced by RB Braelon Allen.

The rookie isn't going away. But neither is Hall's fantasy-friendly role. He's one of only five RBs to rank top-12 in both carry share and target share (joining Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson, Tony Pollard, and Aaron Jones). Only four RBs are averaging more expected PPR points per game.

Hall's biggest problem has been inefficiency. He's averaging 2.4 PPR points under expected per game, which ranks 11th worst among RBs.

Unless you don't think Hall is good, betting on that efficiency rebounding is a smart move. Now is the time to see if you can buy low on Breece.

As a bonus: He has the 5th-easiest remaining RB schedule.

5. Dontayvion Wicks Shines Again

After WR Christian Watson went down with an ankle injury in the first quarter, Wicks stepped into a full-time role and produced a big stat line: five catches for 78 yards and two scores. His 13 targets led the team.

It wasn't a surprise if you've been following this guy since his 2023 rookie campaign. All he's done is deliver strong per-route metrics. Wicks ranked 22nd among 78 qualifying WRs in yards per route last season. He beat both Watson and Romeo Doubs in yards per route and targets per route. This year, Wicks' 27% targets per route leads Watson, Doubs, and Jayden Reed.

In a full-time role for however long Watson is out, Wicks looks like a weekly WR3 with upside. And if he continues to play this well, he might be impossible to take out of the starting lineup even when Watson returns.

6. Chase Brown Makes A Move

After playing clearly behind Moss over the first three weeks of the season, Brown worked himself into something close to a 50/50 split in Week 4. The snap rate and carry share were seasons highs; the route rate was his highest since Week 1.

Just as noteworthy: Brown handled two of Cincinnati's three carries inside Carolina's five-yard line, scoring on both. He had zero carries inside the five coming into that game. 

The buy-low window on Brown has closed after his big Week 4. But, if you already own him, it looks like you have a weekly RB3 or Flex play for now. And Brown could become a RB2 if he overtakes Moss for the 1A role.

7. D’Andre Swift Lives!

We crapped on Swift a lot over the first three weeks of the season, so it's only fair that we highlight him again after a big Week 4.

After reports that Roschon Johnson would see more work vs. the Rams, Swift remained Chicago's clear lead back. His playing time was actually right in line with the first three games of the season. The carry share was his second-biggest, and the target share was a season high.

While the usage remains nice, I believe the big Week 4 was more about a horrible Rams defense than the Bears figuring out their running game.

Swift gets another juicy matchup in Week 5 vs. the Panthers. But then he gets the fifth-toughest RB schedule from Week 6 to 17.

Consider selling him if he turns in another productive fantasy outing this weekend.

8. Is The Packers Backfield Really A Committee?

When Wilson played a big role in Week 3, I chalked it up to the Packers not wanting to overwork Jacobs in a run-heavy game plan under QB Malik Willis.

But with Love back in Week 4, the snap and carry splits remained similar. Wilson actually handled a season-high 42% of Packers carries.

While it's surprising considering most folks hadn't heard of Emanuel Wilson until a few weeks ago, it's worth remembering that HC Matt LaFleur has a long history of deploying committee backfields. And Wilson has earned the work, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and ranking 18th among 49 qualifying RBs in NFL Next Gen Stats' rush yards over expected per attempt.

Jacobs is still controlling passing-game and goal-line snaps, which keeps him in RB2 range. But he won't ascend beyond that if this work split remains.

9. Chuba Hubbard: Workhorse

Only four RBs have totaled more PPR points than Hubbard over the last three weeks.

He's getting strong usage, ranking ninth among RBs in carries and sixth in targets over that span. And he's playing well, averaging a huge 5.8 yards per carry and ranking sixth in Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

Hubbard could be a sell-high with RB Jonathon Brooks looming. But Brooks’ debut is likely at least a couple of weeks away. So, unless you’re loaded at RB, it probably makes sense to hold Hubbard and enjoy this production in the short term.

10. More Good News For Bucky Irving

This was yet another step forward for Irving in terms of usage. He set season highs in snap rate and route rate. Irving trailed White by just three routes vs. the Eagles (24 to 21), which isn't something I expected to see this season.

Plus, Irving handled all three of the RB carries inside the five-yard line. He had no carries inside the five over the first three games.

Let's keep a close eye on the passing-down and goal-line work split between these guys in the next few weeks. If Irving continues to get the type of usage he did in Week 4, he could out-score White -- even in PPR -- the rest of the way.

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.