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WR Sleepers: Overlooked, Underrated, and Ready to Break Out

If you landed on this article last year, there’s a good chance you drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jameson Williams.

They were two of the seven wide receiver sleepers we pinpointed ahead of the 2024 season.

(We also highlighted Rashid Shaheed, Rashod Bateman, and Jalen McMillan, who provided nice fantasy production in spurts.)

How To Find 2025’s Top Wide Receiver Sleepers

What made Smith-Njigba and Williams prime targets in drafts last year? They both checked two key drivers of wide receiver sleeper value:

1. Talent
2. Situation

Smith-Njigba and Williams were former first-round picks who had flashed in underlying efficiency metrics before breaking out last year.

JSN found an improved situation in 2024 thanks to a new OC and declining Tyler Lockett. For Williams, it was a bigger role in a high-scoring Lions offense.

Who are the top wide receiver sleepers in 2025? Here are five top candidates:

Mid-Round WR Sleepers

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

Downs needs just one thing to break out as a WR sleeper in 2025: Better QB play.

Metrics Say He’s Primed To Explode

Downs was one of the league’s top WRs last year according to multiple grading systems. Pro Football Focus ranked him 11th in their receiving grades. Downs finished 13th in ESPN’s receiver score, including fourth in Open Score.

That separation ability helped him command targets at an elite rate. Downs was targeted on 27.9% of his routes, trailing only Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb, and Nico Collins.

Yet for all of those positives, Downs finished just 32nd among WRs in PPR points per game.

What Stopped The Breakout Last Year

Two major issues held Downs back in 2024:

1. Limited playing time. Downs operated almost exclusively from the slot and saw little work in two-WR sets. He ranked just 56th in route participation, well below typical fantasy starters.
2. Poor QB play. The Colts passing game struggled badly. QB Anthony Richardson was mostly to blame. He became just the third QB since 2000 to complete less than 50% of his passes on 250+ attempts, joining Tim Tebow and Akili Smith.

Overall, the Colts finished:

• 32nd in completion rate
• 25th in passing yards
• 25th in passing TDs

Downs' Numbers Took Off With Competent QB

Downs’ production spiked when Richardson was off the field. With QB Joe Flacco under center, he averaged:

• 9.4 targets per game
• 7.1 receptions
• 66.4 yards

Downs ranked 15th in expected PPR points and 17th in actual points per game with Flacco -- massive jumps from 57th in expected and 46th in actual points per game with Richardson.

Will QB Play Improve In 2025?

Downs’ route rate might remain limited in 2025, but the Colts at least attempted to fix the bigger issue by adding QB Daniel Jones. 

Jones has his flaws, but he brings significantly better passing efficiency than Richardson. That includes higher career marks in completion rate, passer rating, and success rate. He's also less of a rushing threat than Richardson, which means more pass attempts for the team.

With Jones set to open the season as the Colts' starter, the pieces are in play for a Downs breakout. He's a strong bet to beat his current WR50 ADP.

Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders

Samuel was a major disappointment last year, finishing 44th among WRs in total PPR points and 47th in points per game.

Blame the Pneumonia

Let’s give him a mulligan after he battled pneumonia in the middle of the season. It clearly impacted his production. Check out the splits:

Samuel’s pre-pneumonia metrics were in line with his career averages and would have ranked top-20 among WRs over the course of the season.

Still only 29, a pneumonia-free Samuel presents strong bounce-back potential in 2025. He posted top-14 finishes in PPR points per game in two of the three seasons before last year.

Big Role Awaits in an Ascending Offense

The Commanders are clearly betting on a rebound. They sent a fifth-round pick to San Francisco in March to acquire Samuel and will be paying him $17 million guaranteed this season.

Samuel joins a passing game that last year ranked:

• 6th in completion rate
• 17th in yards
• 12th in yards per attempt
• 9th in TDs

The Commanders ranked 11th in total WR PPR points, despite having no household names behind Terry McLaurin.

OC Kliff Kingsbury is back for 2025. And QB Jayden Daniels could be even better in his second season.

Terry McLaurin returns as Washington’s likely No. 1 WR. But he’s never been a target hog, peaking at a 24.2% share back in 2020 and drawing 22.3% of Commanders targets last year.

Beyond McLaurin, the rest of the WR corps is weak. And the TE room is led by 34-year-old Zach Ertz.

A healthy Samuel will garner plenty of volume in this ascending passing game.

Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans

This Offense Has Room for a New Outside WR

Nico Collins is locked in as Houston’s No. 1 WR. But Stefon Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell is expected to miss the entire season after December’s multi-ligament knee injury. 

The Texans added WR Christian Kirk in free agency and WR Jaylin Noel in the draft, but both profile as slot receivers. Kirk has run 56% of his NFL routes from the slot, including 71+% in each of the last four seasons. Noel had a 73% slot rate over his four years at Iowa State and never dipped below 66% in any season.

That leaves Higgins as the clear favorite to emerge as the other outside receiver opposite Collins. Higgins certainly has the frame at 6’4 and 214 pounds and ran 71% of his routes at Iowa State from the outside.

Counting on a Stroud Bounce Back

Higgins will need QB C.J. Stroud to rediscover rookie-year form to deliver as a 2025 sleeper. Stroud struggled last year but ranked eighth league wide in passing yards in 2023.

That 2023 Texans squad finished sixth in total WR PPR points, landing both Collins and Dell inside the top 12 in PPR points per game.

If Stroud rebounds, there’s room for Higgins to be a fantasy factor even as the clear No. 2 behind Collins.

Production, Athleticism, and Draft Capital

The Texans made Higgins the 34th overall pick of this spring’s draft after a dominant senior season at Iowa State.

Higgins ranked top-7 nationally in catches (87) and receiving yards (1,183). His 90.5 PFF receiving grade was tops among 260 WRs with 50+ targets. He ranked 27th in yards per route.

Then he ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash with a 39-inch vertical and 128-inch broad at the Combine. Higgins earned a 9.63 Relative Athletic Score, putting him in the 96th percentile of all WRs since 1987.

Based on preseason usage, it looks like Higgins will open the season as Houston's No. 4 WR, behind Collins, Kirk, and Xavier Hutchinson. But it won't take him long to pass Hutchinson, who has 20 catches through two NFL seasons.

You'll need to practice a little patience with Higgins, but he has the potential to be a fantasy starter by October.

Late-Round WR Sleepers

Two more names to consider with the last few picks of your draft ...

Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

Efficiency Has Never Been the Problem

Mims has quietly been one of the league’s most efficient per-play receivers. His 10.4 yards per target over the last two seasons ranks fourth among 126 qualifying WRs. Mims has also averaged a strong 2.0 yards per route.

The issue? He’s barely been on the field.

Full-Time Role Incoming

That looks ready to change. Mims ran a route on 92% of QB Bo Nix’s dropbacks this preseason. While we don’t expect that number to stick in the regular season, it’s clear that Mims will take a massive leap from the 41% and 30% route rates he managed in his first two years.

Mims caught just one ball on one target across 24 preseason routes. But the playing time is the real story here. Targets follow routes. And for the first time in his career, Mims looks set for a healthy dose of both.

Don’t Forget the Prospect Pedigree

Mims was a legit prospect. He led Oklahoma in receiving all three years on campus, ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the Combine, and carried second-round draft capital into the league. The pedigree is there. The big-play ability is there. And now the opportunity is there.

At a Round 13 price tag, Mims is exactly the type of high-upside sleeper you want to chase at the end of drafts.

Demario Douglas, New England Patriots

New England's Best WR?

Douglas had a strong training camp. So strong, in fact, that some beat writers have called him the team's top WR.

"DeMario Douglas has been the Patriots’ best pass-catcher, and it isn’t close," CLNS's Taylor Kyles wrote a few days into camp. "The third-year receiver is primed to be the latest in [OC Josh] McDaniels’ long line of slot studs."

We aren't expecting Douglas to out-produce WR Stefon Diggs. But, as Kyles alludes to, McDaniels' offense boosts Douglas' sleeper appeal.

Slot Receivers Thrive In McDaniels' Offense

Douglas is seemingly locked in as the Patriots' primary slot receiver. That's a nice spot to be in McDaniels' system. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman both posted multiple 100-catch seasons under McDaniels.

Douglas isn't as talented as those guys. And he doesn't have QB Tom Brady. But he's had a nice start to his NFL career, especially considering the state of New England's passing game. Douglas caught 49 balls as a rookie in 2023 and tied for the team lead with 66 grabs last year.

Offense Ready To Break Out?

This is an ascending passing game under second-year QB Drake Maye and an improved offensive line. The Patriots are implied for 5.2 more points per game this year than they averaged last year -- the biggest projected jump in the NFL.

Plus, the WR corps is shaky behind Diggs. Douglas could easily finish second on the team in targets.

He's probably not a league winner. But Douglas could certainly rack up enough catches to be a useful spot starter, especially in PPR leagues.

Ready For More Must-Have Sleepers?

Our full list of 2025 fantasy football sleepers includes:

• A second-year QB with breakout upside
• A big-play WR primed for strong 2025 volume
• A cheap TE with a chance to see 100+ targets

This Powerful Draft Tool Will Make Sure You Don't Miss the Next League-Winning Sleeper

Next Up

Fantasy Football Sleepers 2025: Sneaky Good, Stupid Cheap

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Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and in-season tools. He currently ranks ninth among 173 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.