WR Sleepers: Overlooked, Underrated, and Ready to Break Out

We nailed JSN and Jameson Williams in this space last year. Now you need to jump on Josh Downs and three more key targets before the market catches up.

By Jared Smola | Thu, Jun 12 2025 3:44 PM UTC

WR Sleepers: Overlooked, Underrated, and Ready to Break Out

If you landed on this article last year, there’s a good chance you drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jameson Williams.

They were two of the seven wide receiver sleepers we pinpointed ahead of the 2024 season.

(We also highlighted Rashid Shaheed, Rashod Bateman, and Jalen McMillan, who provided nice fantasy production in spurts.)

How To Find 2025’s Top Wide Receiver Sleepers

What made Smith-Njigba and Williams prime targets in drafts last year? They both checked two key drivers of wide receiver sleeper value:

Talent
Situation

Smith-Njigba and Williams are both former first-round picks who had flashed in underlying efficiency metrics before breaking out last year.

JSN found an improved situation in 2024 thanks to a new OC and declining Tyler Lockett. For Williams, it was a bigger role in a high-scoring Lions offense.

Who are the top wide receiver sleepers in 2025? Here are four top candidates:

Mid-Round WR Sleepers

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

Downs needs just one thing to break out as a WR sleeper in 2025: Better QB play.

Metrics Say He’s Ready to Break Out

Downs was one of the league’s top WRs last year according to multiple grading systems. Pro Football Focus ranked him 11th in their receiving grades. Downs finished 13th in ESPN’s receiver score, including fourth in Open Score.

That separation skill helped him command targets at an elite rate. Downs was targeted on 27.9% of his routes — trailing only Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb, and Nico Collins.

Yet for all of those positives, Downs finished just 32nd among WRs in PPR points per game.

What Stopped the Breakout Last Year

Two major issues held Downs back in 2024:

Limited playing time. Downs operated almost exclusively from the slot and saw little work in two-WR sets. He ranked just 56th in route participation — well below typical fantasy starters.
Poor QB play. The Colts passing game struggled badly. QB Anthony Richardson was mostly to blame. He became just the third QB since 2000 to complete less than 50% of his passes on 250+ attempts, joining Tim Tebow and Akili Smith.

Overall, the offense finished:

32nd in completion rate
25th in passing yards
25th in passing TDs

WR's Numbers Took Off With Competent QB

Downs’ production spiked when Richardson was off the field. With QB Joe Flacco under center, Downs averaged:

9.4 targets per game
7.1 receptions
66.4 yards

Downs ranked 15th in expected PPR points and 17th in actual points per game with Flacco — a massive jump from 57th in expected and 46th in actual points per game with Richardson.

Will QB Play Improve in 2025?

Downs’ route rate might remain limited in 2025 — but the Colts addressed the bigger issue by adding QB Daniel Jones.

Jones has his flaws, but he brings significantly better passing efficiency than Richardson. That includes higher career marks in completion rate, passer rating, and success rate.

If Richardson does not take a big step forward this year, we’ll see Jones at the helm quickly.

Either way, Downs should get better QB play, giving him a good chance to beat his current WR48 ADP.

That's a key reason we're also including Downs among our 2025 Fantasy Football Breakouts.

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Use our live-draft sync to find WR Sleepers tailored to YOUR fantasy league.

Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders

Samuel was a major disappointment last year, finishing 44th among WRs in total PPR points and 47th in points per game.

Blame the Pneumonia

Let’s give him a mulligan after he battled pneumonia in the middle of the season. It clearly impacted his production. Check out the splits:

	Five games pre-pneumonia	Nine games post-pneumonia
Yards Per Target	10.5	6.8
Yards Per Route	2.19	1.26

Samuel’s pre-pneumonia metrics were in line with his career averages and would have ranked top-20 among WRs over the course of the season.

Still only 29, a pneumonia-free Samuel presents strong bounce-back potential in 2025. He posted top-14 finishes in PPR points per game in two of the three seasons before last year.

Big Role Awaits in an Ascending Offense

The Commanders are clearly betting on a rebound. They sent a fifth-round pick to San Francisco in March to acquire Samuel and will be paying him $17 million guaranteed this year.

Samuel joins a passing game that last year ranked:

6th in completion rate
17th in yards
12th in yards per attempt
9th in TDs

OC Kliff Kingsbury is back, and QB Jayden Daniels could be even better in his second season.

Terry McLaurin returns as Washington’s likely No. 1 WR. But he’s never been a target hog, peaking at a 24.2% share back in 2020 and drawing 22.3% of Commanders targets last year. The rest of the WR corps is weak, while the TE room is led by 34-year-old Zach Ertz.

A healthy Samuel will garner plenty of volume in this ascending passing game.

Deebo Samuel's ADP makes him a prime 2025 WR Sleeper.

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ADP Market Index compares Draft Sharks rankings and ADP to help you find wide receiver sleepers in your specific fantasy league.

Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers

Only 12 WRs averaged 2.25+ yards per route on 300+ routes last season. The list includes superstars such as Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Mike Evans.

It also includes Jennings.

Shhh … Jennings Posted Elite Efficiency Marks

Jennings quietly ranked among the top-performing WRs in per-route metrics last season. Among 104 WRs with at least 40 targets, he finished:

9th in targets per route
14th in yards per route
15th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade
10th in ESPN’s receiver score

Jennings Finds Opportunity, Delivers WR2 Production

The strong efficiency flew under the radar for the first half of last season because Jennings was obscured by a deep 49ers pass-catching corps. But WR Brandon Aiyuk’s knee injury and WR Deebo Samuel’s bout with pneumonia allowed Jennings to step into a much bigger role over the second half.

From Week 10 on, he averaged:

8.6 targets per game (26.5% share)
5.8 receptions
63.4 yards
0.3 TDs

He ranked 21st among WRs in PPR points over that stretch — ahead of Nico Collins, Garrett Wilson, and Devonta Smith, among others.

Is He Now San Francisco’s No. 1 WR?

San Francisco’s WR room has thinned. Samuel is in Washington, and Aiyuk is unlikely to be ready for Week 1 after October’s multi-ligament knee injury.

That leaves Jennings with a good chance to open the season as the 49ers’ No. 1 WR. His top challenger is 2024 first-rounder Ricky Pearsall, who missed much of last season after being shot shortly before Week 1. He flashed with a couple of big games in the final two weeks of the year but was out-produced by Jennings overall.

The Shanahan Boost

Jennings also benefits from playing in one of the league’s most efficient passing games. In eight seasons under HC Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have never ranked outside the top 15 in passing yards or yards per attempt.

With Brock Purdy at QB, they’ve finished fourth in passing yards each of the last two years — and ranked first and third in yards per attempt.

Identifying late-round sleepers is a key piece of optimal draft strategy.

Learn more about the best way to draft in fantasy football.

Late-Round WR Sleepers

Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans

There are plenty of intriguing WR sleepers in this year’s rookie class: Emeka Egbuka, Luther Burden, Tre Harris.

But outside of Carolina’s Tetairoa McMillan, no rookie WR has a clearer path to 2025 snaps and targets than Higgins.

This Offense Has Room for a New Outside WR

Nico Collins is locked in as Houston’s No. 1 WR. But Stefon Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell is expected to miss the entire season after December’s multi-ligament knee injury.

The Texans added WR Christian Kirk in free agency and WR Jaylin Noel in the draft — but both profile as slot receivers. Kirk has run 56% of his NFL routes from the slot, including 71+% in each of the last four seasons. Noel had a 73% slot rate over his four years at Iowa State and never dipped below 66% in any season.

That leaves Higgins as the clear favorite for the other outside receiver spot opposite Collins. Higgins certainly has the frame at 6’4 and 214 pounds and ran 71% of his routes at Iowa State from the outside.

Counting on a Stroud Bounce Back

Higgins will need QB C.J. Stroud to rediscover rookie-year form to deliver as a 2025 sleeper. Stroud struggled last year but ranked eighth league wide in passing yards in 2023.

That 2023 Texans squad finished sixth in total WR PPR points, landing both Collins and Dell inside the top 12 in PPR points per game.

If Stroud rebounds, there’s room for Higgins to be a fantasy factor even as the clear No. 2 behind Collins.

Production, Athleticism, and Draft Capital

The Texans made Higgins the 34th overall pick of this spring’s draft after a dominant senior season at Iowa State.

Higgins ranked top-7 nationally in catches (87) and receiving yards (1,183). His 90.5 PFF receiving grade was tops among 260 WRs with 50+ targets. He ranked 27th in yards per route.

Then he ran a 4.47-second 40-yard dash with a 39-inch vertical and 128-inch broad at the Combine. Higgins earned a 9.63 Relative Athletic Score, putting him in the 96th percentile of all WRs since 1987.

He’s already running with the first team in minicamp and flashing his tantalizing combination of size, speed, and ball skills.